Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.
My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games
In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:
Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:
- Everything is sorted by position
- I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
- The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 12 Price
- The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
- H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
- ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
- In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
- I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.
Expected Team Points
Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the eight NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:
- New Orleans Saints (vs CAR) - 28.00 points
- Cleveland Browns (vs MIA) - 28.00 points
- Atlanta Falcons (vs TB) - 27.75 points
- New England Patriots (vs DAL) - 25.50 points
- San Francisco 49ers (vs GB) - 25.25 points
- Oakland Raiders (at NYJ) - 24.75 points
- Philadelphia Eagles (vs SEA) - 24.50 points
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at ATL) - 24.25 points
and one near miss
- Seattle Seahawks (at PHI) - 23.50 points
Situations that stand out to me this week
- The Pricing is really tough this week. In situations like this, I prefer to enter multiple cash lineups as I expect the cash-line to be lower than in recent weeks. I generally also like to stack my quarterbacks in situations like this because if my quarterback lays an egg, the roster was likely dead on arrival anyway. When the stack hits, the lineup generally will cash.
- RB Christian McCaffrey ($19,200) has been carrying DFS rosters for most of the season. This week he is a clear fade for me. His price matched against the team's expected 18 point total does not indicate a clear path to how he will get the 29-30 fantasy points to reach value. In week 15 last year, this Saints defense held him to 53 yards rushing and 67 yards receiving and kept him out of the endzone.
- What Atlanta defense will we see this week? In the first nine weeks of the season, the Falcons were one of the worst defenses stopping the pass. Quarterbacks averaged 23.5 fantasy points per week during this time. The last two weeks have seen the Falcons stymie Drew Brees and Kyle Allen keeping both out of the endzone. If the Falcon defense can halt the Tampa Bay passing game, RB Brian Hill could be the play of the day. If the old Falcons defense plays on Sunday, the Tampa Bay / Atlanta game could turn into the shootout of the day. My data tells me that Winston has success passing the ball and this game leans toward a shootout, but I also expected that from the last two weeks. Correctly predicting how this game will play out will be key to building your lineups.
- New England WRs Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett are likely to miss this game. I believe this will have the Patriots using RB James White a lot more than normal. At just $8,900, he will be a mainstay in my builds.
- Since week 8, the Bengals defense has been the worst in the league at defending the tight end. With a depleted receiving corps, look for the Steelers to use Vance McDonald ($6,200) more than usual. His deep discount allows for studs elsewhere and will be a key component of my roster builds.
- Defenses have scored 63 fantasy points over the last 4 weeks facing the inept Bengals offense. Similarly, defenses facing the Giants have tallied 84 fantasy points over the last 5 weeks. My builds will center around these two units.
Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)
- QB Dak Prescott / TE Jason Witten (Cost = $16,800, FP = 27.2, Ratio = 1.62)
- QB Matt Ryan / TE Jaeden Graham (Cost = $17,700, FP = 28.1, Ratio = 1.59)
- QB Jameis Winston / WR Mike Evans (Cost = $25,700, FP = 40.6, Ratio = 1.58)
- QB Matt Ryan / WR Julio Jones (Cost = $27,300, FP = 43.1, Ratio = 1.58)
- QB Dak Prescott / WR Amari Cooper (Cost = $22,300, FP = 34.8, Ratio = 1.56)
- RB Devin Singletary / TD Buffalo Bills (Cost = $16,500, FP = 25.5, Ratio = 1.55)
- QB Jameis Winston / WR Chris Godwin (Cost = $24,500, FP = 37.6, Ratio = 1.53)
- QB Matt Ryan / WR Russell Gage (Cost = $20,600, FP = 31.6, Ratio = 1.53)
- RB David Montgomery / TD Chicago Bears (Cost = $16,600, FP = 25.3, Ratio = 1.52)
- RB Miles Sanders / TD Philadelphia Eagles (Cost = $14,000, FP = 21.3, Ratio = 1.52)
- QB Dak Prescott / WR Michael Gallup (Cost = $21,900, FP = 33.0, Ratio = 1.51)
- QB Drew Brees / WR Michael Thomas (Cost = $30,500, FP = 45.7, Ratio = 1.50)
- QB Matt Ryan / WR Calvin Ridley (Cost = $25,200, FP = 37.3, Ratio = 1.48)
- QB Kyle Allen / WR D.J. Moore (Cost = $22,100, FP = 32.0, Ratio = 1.45)
- QB Dak Prescott / WR Randall Cobb (Cost = $20,500, FP = 29.5, Ratio = 1.44)
- QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Allen Lazard (Cost = $18,600, FP = 26.6, Ratio = 1.43)
- QB Kyle Allen / TE Greg Olsen (Cost = $17,500, FP = 25.1, Ratio = 1.43)
- QB Daniel Jones / WR Golden Tate (Cost = $21,000, FP = 29.9, Ratio = 1.42)
- QB Nick Foles / WR D.J. Chark Jr (Cost = $23,100, FP = 32.7, Ratio = 1.42)
- QB Tom Brady / WR Julian Edelman (Cost = $24,800, FP = 34.6, Ratio = 1.40)
- QB Josh Allen / WR John Brown (Cost = $24,900, FP = 34.6, Ratio = 1.39)
- QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Davante Adams (Cost = $25,500, FP = 35.3, Ratio = 1.38)
Players for GPP differentiation
- QBs: Dak Prescott, Jeff Driskell, Tom Brady, Daniel Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo
- RBs: Ronald Jones, Tarik Cohen, Jamaal Williams, Jaylen Samuels, Joe Mixon
- WRs: tyler Boyd, DeVante Parker, D.J. Chark, Allen Lazard, Allen Hurns
- TEs: Jacob Hollister, Ben Braunecker, Jaeden Graham, George Kittle
- Def: Dallas, Buffalo, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Miami
Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash Projected Points = (154.4)
- QB Matt Ryan, ATL - $12,300
- RB James White, NE - $8,900
- RB Derrick Henry, TEN - $12,900
- TE Vance McDonald, PIT - $6,200
- WR Julio Jones, ATL - $15,000
- WR Mike Evans, TB - $14,500
- Flex: RB Miles Sanders, PHI - $9,600
- Flex: RB Saquon Barkley, NYG - $14,300
- TD Pittsburgh Steelers - $6,300
Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash Projected Points = (152.6)
- QB Dak Prescott, DAL - $10,900
- RB James White, NE $8,900
- RB Derrick Henry, TEN - $12,900
- TE Vance McDonald, PIT - $6,200
- WR Julio Jones, ATL - $15,000
- WR Mike Evans, TB - $14,500
- Flex: RB Alvin Kamara, NO - $15,900
- Flex: RB Kareem Hunt, CLE - $8,900
- TD Chicago Bears - $6,700