Winning on FantasyDraft - Week 10

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 10 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

Expected Team Points

Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the seven NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:

• New Orleans Saints (vs ATL) - 32.50 points
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs ARI) - 28.25 points
• Indianapolis Colts (vs MIA) - 27.50 points
• Baltimore Ravens (at CIN) - 27.25 points
• Kansas City Chiefs (at TEN) - 27.00 points
• Green Bay Packers (vs CAR) - 26.25 points
• Dallas Cowboys (vs MIN) - 25.50 points

and three near misses

• Arizona Cardinals (at TB) - 23.75 points
• Los Angeles Rams (at PIT) - 23.75 points
• New York Giants (at NYJ) - 23.5 points

Situations that stand out to me this week

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL ($13,500) - Since week 5, the Bengals are allowing 38 rushes for 212 yards and 1.2 touchdowns on the ground per game. Lamar threw for 236 yards and ran for 152 and a touchdown when they met in week 6. This has massacre written all over it. I don't think it's necessary to stack Lamar Jackson as he is capable of scoring multiple touchdowns running the ball here.
  
  
• Lots of cheap options due to injuries! - RB Devin Singletary ($9,500), RB Ronald Jones ($8,400), WR Golden Tate ($10,200), WR Adam Humpries ($6,200), WR A.J. Brown ($8,400), and TE Rhett Ellison ($5,000) are expected to have expanded roles due to injuries. Use these players to generate salary cap relief to slot in higher-priced options.
  
  
• Tampa Bay Passing Offense vs Arizona Passing Defense - The Buccaneers have generated 345 passing yards and 1.7 touchdowns through the air over the last 4 weeks. The Cardinals can't stop the pass and have yielded 312 yards and 3.0 touchdowns through the air over the same timeframe.
  
  
• New Orleans Passing Offense vs Atlanta Passing Defense - The Saints have averaged 298 yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per game since week 6 while the Falcons are yielding 263 yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns during the same time frame.
  
  
• Cleveland Rush Offense vs Buffalo Rush Defense - The Browns are averaging 135 yards and 1.0 touchdowns rushing per game over the last 4 weeks. Over those same 4 weeks, the Bills have yielded 151 yards and 1.7 touchdowns on the ground. With Baker Mayfield struggling and the Browns getting Kareem Hunt back, the gameplan could be run-centric this week.
  
  
• Green Bay Rush Offense vs Carolina Rush Defense - The Packers were averaging 117 yards and 1.5 touchdowns on the ground since Week 5 before stumbling against a solid Chargers front in week 9. The Panthers have been shredded on the ground as of late and are yielded 132 yards and 3.0 touchdowns rushing over the last 4 weeks. Additionally, the best way to keep McCaffrey in check will be for the Packers to run the ball early and often.
  
  

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)

• QB Drew Brees / WR Michael Thomas (Cost = $28300, FP = 47.7, Ratio = 1.69)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Mark Andrews (Cost = $23000, FP = 38.7, Ratio = 1.68)
• RB Ronald Jones / TD Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Cost = $12800, FP = 20.7, Ratio = 1.62)
• RB Jaylen Samuels / TD Pittsburgh Steelers (Cost = $15800, FP = 25.4, Ratio = 1.61)
• QB Lamar Jackson / WR Marquise Brown (Cost = $23600, FP = 38, Ratio = 1.61)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Hayden Hurst (Cost = $18500, FP = 29.6, Ratio = 1.6)
• QB Dak Prescott / WR Michael Gallup (Cost = $21100, FP = 33.3, Ratio = 1.58)
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Mike Evans (Cost = $27600, FP = 43.7, Ratio = 1.58)
• QB Matt Ryan / TE Austin Hooper (Cost = $20500, FP = 32.3, Ratio = 1.58)
• QB Ryan Tannehill / WR Adam Humpries (Cost = $16300, FP = 25.6, Ratio = 1.57)
• QB Daniel Jones / WR Golden Tate (Cost = $21800, FP = 34, Ratio = 1.56)
• RB DevinSingletary / TD Buffalo Bills (Cost = $15100, FP = 23.4, Ratio = 1.55)
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Chris Godwin (Cost = $26700, FP = 41.3, Ratio = 1.55)
• QB Daniel Jones / TE Rhett Ellison (Cost = $16600, FP = 25.3, Ratio = 1.52)
• QB Ryan Tannehill / WR A.J. Brown (Cost = $18500, FP = 28, Ratio = 1.51)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Julio Jones (Cost = $24100, FP = 36.1, Ratio = 1.5)
• QB Dak Prescott / WR Amari Cooper (Cost = $24800, FP = 36.7, Ratio = 1.48)
• QB Kyler Murray / WR Christian Kirk (Cost = $23100, FP = 34.3, Ratio = 1.48)
• QB Matthew Stafford / WR Marvin Jones Jr (Cost = $22200, FP = 32.8, Ratio = 1.48)
• QB Jared Goff / WR Cooper Kupp (Cost = $25300, FP = 37.3, Ratio = 1.47)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / WR Tyreek Hill (Cost = $27900, FP = 40.6, Ratio = 1.46)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $24800, FP = 36.2, Ratio = 1.46)

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Mason Rudolph
• RBs: Devin Singletary, Kareem Hunt, Jamaal Williams, Tarik Cohen, Devonta Freeman
• WRs: A.J. Brown, DeVante Parker, Demaryious Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson
• TEs: Rhett Ellison, Jonnu Smith, Eric Ebron, Vance McDonald, TJ Hockenson
• Def: Tennessee, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Buffalo

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) Fading McCaffrey! - Cash Projected Points = (159.4)

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL - $13,500
• RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT - $11,200
• RB Devin Singletary, BUF - $9,500
• TE Greg Olsen, CAR - $6,500
• WR Michael Thomas, NO - $15,700
• WR Golden Tate, NYG - $10,200
• Flex: WR Mike Evans, TB - $14,900
• Flex: WR Cooper Kupp, LAR - $13,700
• TD New York Jets - $4,400

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash w/McCaffrey Projected Points = (158.1)

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL - $13,500
• RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT - $11,200
• RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR - $19,200
• TE Greg Olsen, CAR - $6,500
• WR Michael Thomas, NO - $15,700
• WR Adam Humphries, TEN - $6,200
• Flex: WR Mike Evans, TB - $14,900
• Flex: RB Ronald Jones, TB - $8,400
• TD New York Jets - $4,400