Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Updated Saturday, December 28th @ 11 PM (EST)
[Blue font indicates the only game *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
New England | Miami | -16.5 | 44.5 | 30.5 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
New Orleans | Carolina | -13.5 | 45 | 29.25 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
Dallas | Washington | -12.5 | 45.5 | 29 | ««« | ««« | «« |
Green Bay | Detroit | -12.5 | 43.5 | 28 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
Kansas City | LA Chargers | -8.5 | 45.5 | 27 | «« | ««« | « |
LA Rams | Arizona | -6 | 45 | 25.5 | « | « | « |
Tennessee | Houston | -6 | 44 | 25 | « | « | « |
San Francisco | Seattle | -3.5 | 45.5 | 24.5 | « | « | |
Philadelphia | NY Giants | -4 | 45 | 24.5 | « | « | |
Tampa Bay | Atlanta | 0 | 47.5 | 23.75 | |||
Atlanta | Tampa Bay | 0 | 47.5 | 23.75 | |||
Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -5.5 | 41.5 | 23.5 | « | ||
Cleveland | Cincinnati | -3 | 43.5 | 23.25 | |||
Denver | Oakland | -3.5 | 41 | 22.25 | « | ||
Seattle | San Francisco | 3.5 | 45.5 | 21 | |||
NY Giants | Philadelphia | 4 | 45 | 20.5 | |||
Cincinnati | Cleveland | 3 | 43.5 | 20.25 | |||
Chicago | Minnesota | -3.5 | 36 | 19.75 | «« | ||
Houston | Tennessee | 6 | 45 | 19.5 | |||
Arizona | LA Rams | 6 | 45 | 19.5 | |||
Pittsburgh | Baltimore | -1.5 | 36.5 | 19 | «« | ||
Buffalo | NY Jets | -1 | 36.5 | 18.75 | «« | ||
Oakland | Denver | 3.5 | 41 | 18.75 | |||
LA Chargers | Kansas City | 8.5 | 45.5 | 18.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 5.5 | 41.5 | 18 | |||
NY Jets | Buffalo | 1 | 36.5 | 17.75 | « | ||
Baltimore | Pittsburgh | 1.5 | 36.5 | 17.5 | « | ||
Washington | Dallas | 12.5 | 45.5 | 16.5 | |||
Minnesota | Chicago | 3.5 | 36 | 16.25 | « | ||
Carolina | New Orleans | 13.5 | 45 | 15.75 | |||
Detroit | Green Bay | 12.5 | 43.5 | 15.5 | |||
Miami | New England | 16.5 | 44.5 | 14 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Drew Brees (Saints), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Alvin Kamara/Latavius Murray (Saints), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Aaron Jones (Packers), Damien Williams (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Jakobi Meyers/Mohamed Sanu (Patriots), Michael Thomas/Jared Cook (Saints), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/Randall Cobb (Cowboys), Davante Adams/Allen Lazard/Jimmy Graham (Packers)
- Defense: Patriots, Packers, Saints
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: None
- Receivers: , Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Bears, Cowboys, Steelers, Bills
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Jared Goff (Rams), Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Carson Wentz (Eagles)
- Running Back: Todd Gurley (Rams), Derrick Henry (Titans), Raheem Mostert (49ers), Miles Sanders/Jordan Howard (Eagles)
- Receivers: Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Brandin Cooks/Tyler Higbee (Rams), A.J. Brown/Tajae Sharpe/Jonnu Smith (Titans), Emmanuel Sanders/Deebo Samuel/George Kittle (49ers), Greg Ward/J.J. Arcega-Whiteside/Dallas Goedert (Eagles)
- Defense: Colts, Chiefs, Broncos, Jets, Ravens, Rams, Titans, Vikings