Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 23rd @ 9 AM (EST)
SUMMARY
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Cleveland | Miami | -10.5 | 45.5 | 28 | ««« | ««« | «« |
New Orleans | Carolina | -10 | 45.5 | 27.75 | «« | ««« | «« |
Atlanta | Tampa Bay | -3.5 | 52 | 27.75 | «« | «« | |
New England | Dallas | -6 | 44.5 | 25.25 | « | « | « |
San Francisco | Green Bay | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | « | « | |
Baltimore | LA Rams | -3.5 | 46.5 | 25 | « | « | |
Oakland | NY Jets | -3 | 46.5 | 24.75 | « | « | |
Houston | Indianapolis | -3.5 | 46 | 24.75 | « | « | |
Philadelphia | Seattle | -1 | 47.5 | 24.25 | « | « | |
Tampa Bay | Atlanta | 3.5 | 52 | 24.25 | « | « | |
Seattle | Philadelphia | 1 | 47.5 | 23.25 | |||
Chicago | NY Giants | -6 | 40 | 23 | «« | ||
Tennessee | Jacksonville | -3.5 | 41.5 | 22.5 | « | ||
Green Bay | San Francisco | 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | |||
Detroit | Washington | -3.5 | 40.5 | 22 | « | ||
Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | -6.5 | 37.5 | 22 | ««« | ||
NY Jets | Oakland | 3 | 46.5 | 21.75 | |||
LA Rams | Baltimore | 3.5 | 46.5 | 21.5 | |||
Indianapolis | Houston | 3.5 | 46 | 21.25 | |||
Buffalo | Denver | -4 | 37 | 20.5 | «« | ||
Dallas | New England | 6 | 44.5 | 19.25 | |||
Jacksonville | Tennessee | 3.5 | 41.5 | 19 | |||
Washington | Detroit | 3.5 | 40.5 | 18.5 | |||
Carolina | New Orleans | 10 | 45.5 | 17.75 | |||
Miami | Cleveland | 10.5 | 45.5 | 17.5 | |||
NY Giants | Chicago | 6 | 40 | 17 | |||
Denver | Buffalo | 4 | 37 | 16.5 | |||
Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | 6.5 | 37.5 | 15.5 |
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Baker Mayfield (Browns)
- Running Back: Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt (Browns), Alvin Kamara/Latavius Murray (Saints)
- Receivers: Odell Beckham/Jarvis Landry (Browns)
- Defense: Steelers
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: Brian Hill (Falcons)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Jared Cook (Saints), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Russell Gage/Jaeden Graham (Falcons)
- Defense: Bills, Bears, Browns, Saints
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Derek Carr (Raiders),
- Deshaun Watson (Texans), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Tevin Coleman (49ers), Mark Ingram (Ravens), Josh Jacobs (Raiders),
- Carlos Hyde (Texans), Miles Sanders (Eagles), Ronald Jones II (Buccaneers)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Phillip Dorsett/Mohamed Sanu/Ben Watson (Patriots), Emmanuel Sanders/Deebo Samuel/George Kittle (49ers), Marquise Brown/Mark Andrews (Ravens), Tyrell Williams/Hunter Renfrow/Darren Waller (Raiders), DeAndre Hopkins/Kenny Stills/Will Fuller (Texans), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz/Dallas Goedert (Eagles), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Scotty Miller/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers)
- Defense: Lions, Titans, Patriots