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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 11/10 @ 7 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
New Orleans | Atlanta | -14 | 51 | 32.5 | ««« | ««« | « |
Kansas City | Tennessee | -6.5 | 50 | 28.25 | ««« | ««« | |
Tampa Bay | Arizona | -4.5 | 51.5 | 28 | ««« | ««« | |
Baltimore | Cincinnati | -10.5 | 44 | 27.25 | «« | ««« | «« |
San Francisco | Seattle | -6.5 | 48 | 27.25 | «« | «« | |
Indianapolis | Miami | -10.5 | 43.5 | 27 | «« | ««« | «« |
Green Bay | Carolina | -4.5 | 48.5 | 26.5 | «« | «« | |
Dallas | Minnesota | -3.5 | 48 | 25.75 | « | « | |
LA Chargers | Oakland | -1.5 | 48 | 24.75 | « | « | |
LA Rams | Pittsburgh | -3.5 | 44 | 23.75 | |||
NY Giants | NY Jets | -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | |||
Arizona | Tampa Bay | 4.5 | 51.5 | 23.5 | |||
Oakland | LA Chargers | 1.5 | 48 | 23.25 | |||
Chicago | Detroit | -4 | 40.5 | 22.25 | |||
Minnesota | Dallas | 3.5 | 48 | 22.25 | |||
Cleveland | Buffalo | -3 | 41 | 22 | « | ||
Carolina | Green Bay | 4.5 | 48.5 | 22 | |||
Tennessee | Kansas City | 6.5 | 50 | 21.75 | |||
NY Jets | NY Giants | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||
Seattle | San Francisco | 6.5 | 48 | 20.75 | |||
Pittsburgh | LA Rams | 3.5 | 44 | 20.25 | |||
Buffalo | Cleveland | 3 | 41 | 19 | |||
Atlanta | New Orleans | 14 | 51 | 18.5 | |||
Detroit | Chicago | 4 | 40.5 | 18.25 | |||
Cincinnati | Baltimore | 10.5 | 44 | 16.75 | |||
Miami | Indianapolis | 10.5 | 43.5 | 16.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Alvin Kamara (Saints), Damien Williams (Chiefs), Ronald Jones II (Buccaneers), Marlon Mack (Colts), Mark Ingram (Ravens)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Jared Cook (Saints), Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett (Colts), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Tevin Coleman (49ers), Aaron Jones/Jamaal Wiliams (Packers)
- Receivers: Zach Pascal/Chester Rogers/Jack Doyle/Eric Ebron (Colts), Marquise Brown/Willie Snead/Mark Andrews/Nick Boyle (Ravens), Emmanuel Sanders/Deebo Samuel/George Kittle (49ers), Davante Adams/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Geronimo Allison/Jimmy Graham (Packers)
- Defense: Colts, Ravens
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
- Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Melvin Gordon/Austin Ekeler (Chargers)
- Receivers: Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Hunter Henry (Chargers)
- Defense: Ravens, Browns, Saints