A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 9 Votes
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota
James Brimacombe: Cousins is coming off his best season statistically and has four straight seasons as a top ten quarterback as he has finished as the 9th, 5th, 5th, and 9th at the position over those years. It is hard to argue with the talent that is surrounding him in the offense with arguably the best duo at wide receiver with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Cousins is the best value at ADP right now in fantasy drafts.
Drew Davenport: The concerns about how Minnesota's offense will look are certainly justified. It appears from a small sample size late last season that new Offensive Coordinator Kevin Stefanski will run the football, and this appears to be the order from Head Coach Mike Zimmer as well. But even a sizable drop in pass attempts can't account for his current ADP. He still plays with two immensely talented wide receivers, an excellent red zone tight end, and his teams will be in most games because of a good defense. His current ADP is an overreaction.
David Dodds: Despite playing for a new team in 2018, Kirk Cousins set career highs in completion percentage (70.1) and passing touchdowns (30). His last four years have all logged 4,000+ passing yards while playing every game. He is among the safest players at any position to draft at or near their current ADP.
Will Grant: Cousins is a huge value for a guy who is starting his second season with a team that has Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs catching the ball. Cousins had almost 4300 yards passing and 30 touchdowns last season. He also threw 10 interceptions which isn’t great, but it’s his best total in his previous four seasons. Cousins gets the blame for not taking the Vikings to the Super Bowl – but if you remove emotion from the equation, Cousins is a solid fantasy quarterback and a steal at his current ADP.
Andy Hicks: Kirk Cousins broke career records in passing yardage and touchdowns, completed over 70% of his passes and threw the lowest amount of interceptions in his period as a full-time starter. Why then was the 2018 season seen as a disappointing year for the Vikings quarterback? Expectations of Super Bowl or bust tend to do that. Cousins gives the appearance of a solid current starter and 2019 should provide another solid season from a fantasy perspective. Why he is being drafted after unproven quarterbacks like Mitchell Trubisky, Kyler Murray and Jameis Winston is beyond me. Cousins has finished as a top 10 fantasy quarterback for four straight years and has multiple elite weapons at his disposal. Draft him in conjunction with a riskier player and watch as he becomes your starter in no time.
Devin Knotts: Where Kirk Cousins is being drafted does not make a lot of sense as this is a quarterback who has finished as a top-10 quarterback in each of the last four seasons. Last year was a tumultuous season for the Vikings as they changed offensive coordinators and offensive philosophy’s midway through the season. The good news for Cousins is that this season he will have Kevin Stefanski back as his offensive coordinator. With Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen making up one of the best wide receiver tandems in the NFL, this should be a tremendous opportunity for Cousins to once again finish inside the top-10 overall. He is as big of a lock to overperform his value as anyone in fantasy this year.
Dwain McFarland: Yes, Mike Zimmer wants to run the ball more, but it likely won't be the extreme change many are forecasting. The Vikings did run more over the last three games of 2018 after the switch to Kevin Stefanski, but there is a lot of potential noise in that signal. Two of those games were blowouts versus Detroit and Miami when Cousins didn't need to pass. He still has two top-notch receivers (who the team recently invested heavily in) and now gets Gary Kubiak advising Stefanski. Expect Cousins’ attempts to drop into the 550 range (606 last season) but for efficiency to rise. Kubiak’s imprint will consist of more play-action, which historically has served as a strength for Cousins (averages approximately two yards more per attempt versus non-play action). Cousins’ late-round ADP is an overreaction by the fantasy community.
Chad Parsons: Cousins returns his trio of pass-catchers from last year (Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph) and (hopes) to see more health from running back Dalvin Cook. Cousins has finished as top-10 fantasy quarterback in total points for four years running despite not getting over the hump from an NFL postseason perspective. Cousins is one of the 'Rodney Dangerfield' players in fantasy with the lack of respect he receives compared to his long-standing results.
Jason Wood: Kirk Cousins is the best fantasy value at any position. It’s indefensible to let him fall this far. He finished QB9 last year, his fourth consecutive top-9 finish. Only three quarterbacks can make that claim: Wilson, Brees, and Cousins. Consider Cousins did all this playing for two teams and five offensive coordinators. He also set career highs last season in completion rate, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interception rate. Yet, he’s falling in drafts because of the final three weeks of the season, when Kevin Stefanski took over, and the Vikings became a run-heavy team. Are we going to discount four years of elite production for a three-week sample? Gary Kubiak –hired this offseason – has a long history of productive fantasy quarterbacks, and the Vikings strength remains the trio of Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph. Cousins will get plenty of opportunities to earn his $30+ million salary yet again.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Kyler Murray, Arizona
Phil Alexander: Murray is patient in the pocket, deadly accurate (69% completion last season), has a quick release, and can throw to all areas of the field (11.6 yards per attempt). He may need to play Houdini behind a suspect offensive line, but Murray's speed makes it possible and he has an exciting blend of skill position weapons at his disposal to help him extend plays. The potential is also there for 500+ rushing yards to pad his passing stats. If Kliff Kingsbury is able to stick to his gameplan, the Cardinals will finish among the league leaders in offensive plays and total pass attempts, giving Murray an overall QB1 ceiling that isn’t reflected by his current ADP.
Jeff Haseley: It's possible that Kyler Murray struggles in his first year in the league against players with abilities that he hasn't seen before. Or, it's possible that he takes the league by storm the same way Deshaun Watson and others with his dual-threat skill set did. Lamar Jackson finished as the QB8 after Week 12 last year. Murray has Jackson's rushing ability and a much better arm and throwing efficiency. Murray could be special and is worth the gamble anytime after 10-12 quarterbacks go off the board.
Dan Hindery: Understanding the incredible depth of the quarterback position in 2019 is the key to formulating an optimal draft strategy. Ben Roethlisberger, Dak Prescott, and Philip Rivers have QB2 ADPs. Looking deeper, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, and Andy Dalton are basically free at this point and should give you 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. Given the ease of landing a high-floor QB2, there is no reason not to swing for the fences when drafting your QB1. Nobody truly knows how the Kyler Murray/Kliff Kingsbury experiment will work out in Arizona but there is no doubt it has a chance to be a fantasy bonanza. People point to Kingsbury’s mediocre win-loss record in college but that is mostly irrelevant to this discussion. His offenses were spectacular. Under Kingsbury, Texas Tech had multiple seasons averaging over 450 passing yards per game and annually ranked near the top in scoring offense. Given Murray’s elite athleticism and big arm, the ceiling here is incredibly high.
Devin Knotts: The Cardinals went out of their way to essentially try an experiment this season in running some version of the Air Raid as they went after Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray. Whether it will lead to wins has never been proven as Kingsbury has a sub-500 record in college, but it leads to tremendous fantasy outputs as the team continues to throw the ball. Murray is a special talent in that while he is undersized, has tremendous mobility and even more impressive is his ability to throw on the run. You’re drafting for upside at the QB12 position, and Murray has the ability and coaching scheme to propel himself into the top 5 fantasy quarterbacks this season with a decent floor if he can stay healthy due to the offensive system that the Cardinals are running.
Chad Parsons: While an incoming rookie, Murray is one of my favorite upside plays at quarterback in 2019. Arizona was a mess last season but the coach, system, and quarterback all change for this year. Murray is hyper-accurate, one of the fastest players on any field he plays, and has split his time and attention between football and baseball until now as a two-sport phenom. Murray's mobility alone put him on the QB1 radar for fantasy with upside from there with a strong collection of weapons with David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, potential second-year breakout Christian Kirk, and incoming rookies Andy Isabella (speed) and Hakeem Butler (huge frame).
Daniel Simpkins: Murray’s win-loss record may be disappointing by year’s end, but we should fully expect an offense that will be exciting, dynamic, and will produce massively for fantasy purposes. As fellow Footballguy Dwain McFarland has pointed out, the offense will be shotgun formation, up-tempo, put weapons in space, and create favorable matchups for the offense. This offense is tailor-made for Murray and his skills and should put Murray instantly in the top-15 conversation at his position.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
Will Grant: Another quarterback being punished because his team didn’t do as well as it should have. Well, that and the fact that their receiving corps looks like a fantasy team forgot to take a wide receiver for the first 10 rounds of the draft. Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, and Miles Boykin aren’t going to scare anybody this season, but Jackson certainly will. This team will be run-first, run-often and Jackson will be driving the boat. He will probably never have a 300-yard passing game this season, but Jackson could certainly post several 100+ yard rushing games and that alone makes him worth consideration as your backup quarterback.
Ryan Hester: Jackson isn’t the world’s best passer, but that is impacting his draft position far more than it should. Even as a rookie who took over mid-season last year, he was the QB11 on a points-per-game basis once he took over as the starter in Week 11. Rushing yards are 2.5 times more valuable than passing yards, and rushing touchdowns are 1.5 times more valuable the passing touchdowns. Jackson will continue to run and do so effectively. Baltimore is committed to Jackson in every way. They traded away Joe Flacco and also brought in Greg Roman as offensive coordinator. Roman has worked with mobile quarterbacks such as Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor in the past and gotten the best out of them. He can do the same with Jackson.
Justin Howe: Fantasy players don’t have to like Jackson’s arm – or Baltimore’s passing volume – to pounce on Jackson. He finished his seven-week starting stretch as fantasy’s QB6, posting the league’s seventh-most points per opportunity. Had he not thrown a single pass, he still would have finished QB20. Some are wringing their hands over Jackson The Passer, but that’s a spectacular floor for a fantasy quarterback. “Safer” options like Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Philip Rivers bring nothing to the table in terms of rushing; they’re entirely dependent upon big volume and big efficiency to be a boon. Jackson brings a borderline QB1/2 outlook even as a bad passer – with the ceiling to finish top-six (again). He shouldn’t be discounted this heavily in fantasy.
Daniel Simpkins: As was documented herehttps://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2019-lamar-jackson-accurate-pocket-passer, Jackson gets an unfair characterization as a quarterback who is only good as a runner and not as a passer. Given that he will have some new weapons with which to work and better chemistry with the old ones in a system that is tailored for him, it’s virtually assured he’ll break into the top ten fantasy quarterbacks this year. Even if one does not believe in Jackson as a passer, one has to acknowledge his abilities as a runner. Even Tim Tebow, who could not throw with any accuracy or touch, managed a top-eight fantasy finish in 2011 on the strength of his legs.
Matt Waldman: The Ravens inserted Jackson into an offense where its running plays were designed for Jackson but the passing game had spent months working with Joe Flacco. Despite lacking the months of timing built with an offseason of first-team practices, Jackson performed better in the passing game than most understand. Major media has been hyper-focused on magnifying less consequential details of Jackson’s practices out of proportion. This is good for savvier fantasy players who understand that Jackson’s excellent pocket presence, valuable poise, and developing accuracy will be supplemented with a significant dose of big-play work on the ground. The sub-par playoff performance against the Chargers was a far greater failure of the coaching staff than Jackson. Look for the Ravens offense to continue posing difficult problems for opposing defenses to solve and Jackson delivering enough top-five fantasy weeks to at least earn top-12 production at the position.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay
Ryan Hester: Winston hasn’t achieved his full potential yet, but when he played last year, he was serviceable-to-good for fantasy purposes. Having Bruce Arians on his side should help immensely. Arians has shepherded multiple quarterbacks to the best seasons of their careers. Winston has as much top-five positional upside and anyone being drafted at QB7 or later. And at a position where draft-day misfires can be overcome more easily than any other position, shooting for the proverbial moon is the optimal play.
Jeff Pasquino: Jameis Winston is entering his contract year with Tampa Bay, and quite frankly this is a “put up or shut up” season for him. His new head coach, Bruce Arians, should put Winston in favorable situations, as Arians has boosted several quarterbacks’ numbers throughout his NFL career. Winston has had good streaks of performance, including last season (he was QB9 from Week 11 on last year). Even with DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries leaving via free agency, there are plenty of strong targets for Winston to put up QB1 numbers, as long as he keeps the interception totals down.
Jeff Tefertiller: Of the QB2 choices available, Winston has a legitimate shot to finish inside the top 10 at the position due to a few factors. First, having Byron Leftwich run Bruce Arians offense will be a huge upgrade. Next, the lack of a legitimate pro ball carrier will result in more deep passes, a Winston strength. Lastly, he played much better down the stretch than given credit. Coming into a contract year, the situation is set up for Winston to play well.
Jason Wood: Winston finished 18th and 21st over the last two seasons, which explains his modest average draft position. But those year-end rankings don’t paint a clear picture because he missed eight games over that span, in part due to a flip-flopping with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Did you realize Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston combined for 447 fantasy points last year? That would’ve ranked No. 2 behind only Patrick Mahomes II. Winston doesn’t need to maintain that pace as a 16-game starter to justify his ADP, although it’s not out of the question. Bruce Arians takes over as head coach, and Byron Leftwich will take over play-calling. Expect Winston to benefit from the mentorship in the same way he benefitted from the hands-on oversight of Jimbo Fisher during his Florida State days. If Winston can cut down his turnovers while maintaining his career touchdown and yards-per-attempt rates, he’ll be a must-start QB1.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Cam Newton, Carolina
Drew Davenport: There is only one way to explain Newton's currently deflated ADP and that is concerns about his health. Otherwise, there isn't much to not like about his outlook. For much of his career, he has played with a suspect supporting cast and he still churned out Top 5 seasons anyway. Now he has three young explosive playmakers in Curtis Samuel, D.J. Moore, and Christian McCaffrey, to take some of the load off, and he was performing like a top-five quarterback yet again in 2018 before the injury derailed his finish. Assuming no red flags about his shoulder go up in camp, his current ADP is a gift. Take it.
Dan Hindery: After 13 weeks last season, Newton was the fantasy QB4 despite playing with a bum shoulder that limited his deep passing and led to fewer goal-line carries. Plus, his top three pass catchers were 22 (Christian McCaffrey), 21 (D.J. Moore), and 22 (Curtis Samuel) years old. Newton looks on track to be healthy and the passing offense should take a big step forward if the young talent matures. In addition to an expected improvement in passing numbers, a healthy Newton could double his rushing touchdowns from last season. Outside of McCaffrey, the entire Carolina offense looks undervalued heading into draft season.
Dwain McFarland: When projecting Newton's potential range of outcomes for the coming season, it is almost impossible to keep him out of the top six fantasy quarterbacks unless you believe he is still injured. Early signs on that front are positive. If you exclude Newton's final game, when his shoulder problem became insurmountable, he was on pace for 4,017 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, 580 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns over 13 games. During those games, he was without Curtis Samuel for three and Greg Olsen for five. Now Newton is healthy and possibly has the most talented surrounding cast of his career. With Christian McCaffrey, Samuel, D.J. Moore, Olsen, and Ian Thomas, he will always have three viable targets on the field. Newton’s current ADP is below Drew Brees, Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson. On a points per game basis, he will outscore all of these.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Jared Goff, LA Rams
Will Grant: I'm constantly surprised to find Jared Goff available in the 9th and 10th rounds in some fantasy drafts. The guy had almost 4700 yards passing last season – much of it without Cooper Kupp. With Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds, Goff has one of the best pass-catching groups in the league. Yes, there may be concerns if Todd Gurley will be the same running back that he was the previous two seasons, but he is still alive, right? Having Gurley on the field will prevent teams from blitzing Goff on every down and giving Goff time to find the open man on this team will be dangerous. I’d feel completely comfortable taking him as my starting quarterback this season.
Jeff Pasquino: Someone needs to explain how a quarterback with a Top 5 offense with three wide receivers in the ADP Top 50 is not in the Top 10 quarterbacks in most drafts. Throw in that his star tailback has a questionable bill of health and that Goff leads an offense that was #2 in overall scoring, #5 in total passing yards and tied for 8th in passing touchdowns and he appears to be a bargain as a quarterback available outside of the Top 10.
Dak Prescott, Dallas
Jeff Haseley: Dak Prescott may be the most underappreciated, underrated fantasy quarterback in the league. In his three years in the league, he has finished 6th, 6th, and 11th in end-of-season rankings with six rushing touchdowns in each season. In an era where dual-threat quarterbacks thrive, Prescott is a great target after 12 quarterbacks come off the board in redraft leagues. Plus he now has a full year with Amari Cooper as his top receiving option.
Matt Waldman: A top-five fantasy producer earlier in his career when surrounded with capable talent at the receiving corps, offensive line, and running back, Prescott’s only significant stint of underperformance during his career came before the Amari Cooper trade. During this period, the Cowboys lost Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick to a season-ending illness, there was no capable replacement for Dez Bryant moving on, and Jason Witten was in the broadcast booth. Despite lacking good answers for the missing Frederick and Witten, the addition of Cooper propelled Prescott to strong fantasy production for the remainder for 2018. This year, Frederick and Witten return to the offense and it also earns an upgrade in the slot with Randall Cobb. Prescott doesn’t win the annual football analyst quarterback technique pageants, but he’s tough, athletic, resourceful, and productive value play with a full complement of weapons.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
Andy Hicks: Despite Ben Roethlisberger's injury-prone tag, he has missed just seven games in the last six years. Add to that is the fact that 2018 was his best fantasy season ever, finishing as the third-ranked quarterback and passing for over 5000 yards for the first time in his career. A career-high in passing touchdowns points to the fact that Roethlisberger is far from finished. The Steelers passing game will be just fine. The loss of Antonio Brown is overstated and not indicative of production this year for the Steelers. James Washington will be in year two, Diontae Johnson was drafted early and Donte Moncrief added in free agency. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Vance McDonald play at a pro bowl level already and the running game is more than honest. Roethlisberger is being drafted as a backup, which cannot be based on his production for the last six years.
Jeff Pasquino: Pittsburgh led all teams in pass attempts last season, and it was not even close. Ben Roethlisberger averaged over 40 attempts, which speaks to how much of a pass-happy offense the Steelers had last year. Antonio Brown is gone, but Roethlisberger has gone through several wide receiver changes in his long career in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are once again turning to James Conner as their starting tailback, and Conner struggled in the second half of 2018 (none of his final five games were over 100 yards, and only 3 of his 13 touchdowns came over that same period). Pittsburgh expects its wide receivers and tight ends to step up for Roethlisberger, and the collective group could boost Roethlisberger into the Top 10 once again. Roethlisberger has been at that level in 7 of the last 13 seasons, so history is on his side and makes him a solid value pick.
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago
James Brimacombe: What I like most about Trubisky is that the Bears offense looks like it is on the rise and entering into his third season he has potential to erupt into a top fantasy scorer at the position for a fraction of the cost of some of the other big-name quarterbacks. Trubisky threw for 24 touchdowns last season and had seven out of his 14 games where he threw at least 2 touchdowns. He also helps his cause with his rushing ability as he averaged 30 yards rushing a game and had three rushing touchdowns. With weapons such as Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Tarik Cohen, and Trey Burton at his disposal I feel like he is a great buy-low candidate right now.
Drew Davenport: Sometimes watching Trubisky can be a frustrating proposition as he is prone to bouts of wild inaccuracy. But the results for fantasy purposes are undeniable. Before a late-season injury tempered his results Trubisky was one of the more explosive weekly plays at the position. This is due in no small part to the rushing numbers that pad his weekly fantasy upside. Keep in mind that Trubisky has only been a starter for 3 years - one year in college and two in the NFL. The entire offense should also get a bump from Anthony Miller being healthy, Allen Robinson getting that first-year post-ACL out of the way, and getting a second year of preparation with Matt Nagy's playbook. Trubisky's current ADP seems like one of the better bargains of the summer right now.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Josh Allen, Buffalo
Maurile Tremblay: Allen didn't always make good decisions with the ball during his rookie season, but he showed the big-play ability that can accumulate fantasy points. His ability as a runner is a strong bonus. The Bills brought in John Brown as a deep threat (a good match for Allen's big arm) and Cole Beasley as an outlet underneath, and also completely made over its offensive line, which was miserable last season. The arrow is pointing upward.
Tom Brady, New England
Andy Hicks: With Tom Brady entering his 20th season one has to wonder how long he can keep doing it. Rob Gronkowski is gone and Julian Edelman will be 33 to open the year. Even if he achieves his stated aim of playing until he is 45, his play has to drop off…surely? As a fantasy option however you can never rule him out, but a 42-year-old starting quarterback in the modern era is uncharted territory. He may not be a matchup every week but will be a great play off the bench. The addition of NKeal Harry is a big help and despite the focus on running backs, passing to these guys still gets Brady points.
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco
Dwain McFarland: Garoppolo has just been unlucky. In his two seasons with Kyle Shanahan, he has averaged a healthy 8.5 yards per attempt versus the NFL average of 7.4. Dante Pettis gains more separation than any other receiver non-slot receiver in the NFL according to Next Gen Stats. Marquise Goodwin is always a threat to take the top off of the defense. George Kittle is a mismatch versus almost every linebacker or safety in the league. Now add Tevin Coleman, a healthy Jerrick McKinnon, Deebo Samuel, and Jalen Hurd who can each provide a different wrinkle. If Garoppolo stays healthy, he has more upside than many realize – think Matt Ryan 2016.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta
Jason Wood: Ryan finished as the No. 2 fantasy quarterback last year, and that was hardly a fluke. He was the 3rd best quarterback in 2016 and has been a top-10 quarterback in seven of the last nine seasons. His baseline is about as ironclad as anyone at the position but should be in-line to duplicate or improve on last year’s career bests. Julio Jones is healthy, Calvin Ridley enters Year Two passing all his rookie tests, and Mohamed Sanu is a picture-perfect third receiver. Devonta Freeman is healthy and gives Ryan a dynamic out of the backfield he missed in Freeman’s absence. Dirk Koetter returns to the play-calling role that turned Ryan into an MVP years ago, and most importantly the offensive line should be massively improved thanks to the additions of two rookie studs.
Deshaun Watson, Houston
Ryan Hester: Watson finished as the QB4 last season despite lung and rib injuries that would have been debilitating to many players. He also played without Will Fuller and Keke Coutee for a bulk of the year. Another factor to consider is that Houston has always played at a fast pace since Bill O’Brien came to town (despite a plethora of mediocre quarterbacks other than Watson). Considering all of those factors, Watson isn’t being drafted at his ceiling; that ceiling is the overall QB1.