It's time once again for our preseason series on True Fantasy Points (TFP), which enters its fifth season on Footballguys. Readers can consult previous years for a more thorough explanation of the methodology (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018), but the basic idea underlying my TFP system (for quarterbacks) is that we can adjust Yards per Attempt (YPA), Touchdowns per Attempt (TDPA), and Interceptions per Attempt (INTPA) via regression to the mean once we know how many attempts it takes for these stats to "stabilize" (i.e., they represent 50 percent skill and 50 percent luck). And based on my updated research, here are the answers to that:
- YPA takes 447 attempts to stabilize.
- TDPA takes 834 attempts to stabilize.
- INTPA takes 1,054 attempts to stabilize.
With these milestones in hand, calculating TFP simply requires multiplying a quarterback's "true" rate stats by David Dodds' volume projections in order to obtain their stat totals, and then applying Footballguys' standard scoring system to said stat totals. As an example, Philip Rivers has a 7.79 True YPA, a 5.26% True TDPA, and a 2.55% True INTPA. Meanwhile, Dodds projects Rivers for 518 pass attempts, which implies 4,036 "true" passing yards, 27 "true" touchdown passes, and 13 "true" interceptions. In turn, these stats translate to 300.6 "true" fantasy points (TFP) per Footballguys' standard scoring system. Comparing 300.6 to Dodds' actual fantasy points projection of 300.0 points yields a difference of only 0.6 points, meaning Rivers' projection is in line with mean-regressed expectation.
One other detail worth mentioning before proceeding is that, for the first time ever, the TFP table now includes quarterbacks playing for new teams, whether that be via trade (e.g., Joe Flacco), free agency (e.g., Nick Foles), or the NFL draft (e.g., Daniel Jones). Such quarterbacks, by virtue of starting from scratch this season, have "true" rate stats equal to the following projected league averages:
- 7.28 YPA
- 4.80% TDPA
- 2.39% INTPA
This distinction will become apparent later during the discussion of a certain hyped-up rookie that you probably identified immediately upon reading the words "hyped-up rookie."
So without further ado, below are the TFP projections for QBs this season, along with their differences from Dodds' point projections:
Dodds' Stats | True Stats | Points | ||||||||
Quarterback | Team | Yards | TDs | INTs | Yards | TDs | INTs | Dodds | TFP | Diff |
PHI
|
4108
|
30
|
12
|
3824
|
26
|
12
|
333.7
|
303.2
|
+30.5
|
|
ATL
|
4360
|
28
|
11
|
4096
|
26
|
12
|
335.3
|
310.6
|
+24.7
|
|
IND
|
4095
|
30
|
11
|
3930
|
27
|
14
|
339.3
|
318.9
|
+20.3
|
|
LAR
|
4229
|
29
|
12
|
4068
|
26
|
13
|
327.7
|
309.7
|
+18.0
|
|
NO
|
4186
|
30
|
10
|
4035
|
28
|
12
|
325.2
|
307.3
|
+17.9
|
|
CLE
|
4168
|
32
|
16
|
4142
|
27
|
15
|
339.4
|
321.6
|
+17.8
|
|
OAK
|
3953
|
25
|
13
|
3710
|
24
|
12
|
292.5
|
276.7
|
+15.7
|
|
TB
|
3993
|
27
|
15
|
3935
|
24
|
15
|
317.6
|
303.1
|
+14.4
|
|
KC
|
4588
|
36
|
13
|
4588
|
33
|
14
|
397.7
|
383.6
|
+14.1
|
|
MIN
|
4054
|
26
|
12
|
3928
|
26
|
13
|
319.4
|
310.0
|
+9.4
|
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
CHI
|
3661
|
23
|
13
|
3616
|
22
|
13
|
313.4
|
305.8
|
+7.5
|
DET
|
3868
|
24
|
11
|
3882
|
24
|
13
|
289.0
|
286.6
|
+2.4
|
|
TEN
|
3035
|
19
|
13
|
3038
|
18
|
11
|
257.7
|
256.1
|
+1.5
|
|
SF
|
3995
|
25
|
15
|
4082
|
24
|
14
|
306.2
|
305.4
|
+0.8
|
|
LAC
|
4046
|
27
|
12
|
4036
|
27
|
13
|
300.0
|
300.6
|
-0.6
|
|
NYJ
|
3699
|
24
|
15
|
3744
|
23
|
15
|
285.6
|
287.1
|
-1.5
|
|
DAL
|
3747
|
23
|
10
|
3773
|
23
|
11
|
315.0
|
317.2
|
-2.2
|
|
HOU
|
3966
|
27
|
13
|
4065
|
27
|
13
|
366.1
|
371.0
|
-4.9
|
|
NYG
|
665
|
4
|
3
|
728
|
5
|
2
|
49.3
|
55.4
|
-6.2
|
|
CIN
|
3580
|
23
|
13
|
3657
|
24
|
13
|
276.7
|
283.8
|
-7.1
|
|
SEA
|
3595
|
27
|
10
|
3738
|
27
|
10
|
327.7
|
335.0
|
-7.3
|
|
NYG
|
3213
|
19
|
12
|
3256
|
21
|
13
|
227.4
|
236.0
|
-8.6
|
|
PIT
|
4296
|
28
|
13
|
4474
|
29
|
15
|
320.2
|
330.5
|
-10.3
|
|
BUF
|
3165
|
19
|
13
|
3333
|
20
|
13
|
317.4
|
330.4
|
-13.0
|
|
WAS
|
1828
|
12
|
6
|
2016
|
13
|
7
|
139.3
|
155.1
|
-15.8
|
|
CAR
|
3533
|
22
|
14
|
3764
|
24
|
14
|
325.3
|
344.7
|
-19.4
|
|
BAL
|
2845
|
19
|
11
|
3212
|
20
|
11
|
325.8
|
347.1
|
-21.3
|
|
NE
|
3832
|
27
|
10
|
4060
|
30
|
9
|
297.8
|
320.5
|
-22.7
|
|
GB
|
4042
|
29
|
9
|
4262
|
32
|
9
|
341.9
|
366.9
|
-25.0
|
|
JAX
|
3698
|
22
|
13
|
3901
|
26
|
13
|
267.0
|
292.2
|
-25.2
|
|
ARI
|
3493
|
23
|
13
|
3857
|
25
|
13
|
324.1
|
352.0
|
-27.9
|
|
DEN
|
3358
|
21
|
12
|
3697
|
24
|
12
|
248.5
|
277.1
|
-28.6
|
As an example of how to read the table, focus your attention on the row associated with Jared Goff. Dodds projects him to throw for 4,229 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, which equates to 327.7 standard fantasy points. In comparison, Goff's "true" rates with the Rams (7.59 YPA, 4.91 TDPA, and 2.35% INTPA) equate to 4,068 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions when multiplied by Dodds' projection of 536 pass attempts. And in turn, that stat line equates to 309.7 TFP, which is 18.0 points lower than Dodds' points projection. Taken together, the above suggests Goff is overrated given his "true" passing skill (as measured by YPA, TDPA, and INTPA).
Don't Sleep on Running Quarterbacks
Astute readers will immediately notice that Josh Allen, Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray are all currently undervalued, as they reside near the bottom of the table. What these quarterbacks have in common is a reputation for running the ball, which causes an equal and opposite reputation for passing the ball. Take Kyler Murray, for instance. The 27.9-point gap between Dodds and TFP is entirely due to TFP simply assuming league-average passing rate stats for Murray, which doesn't seem far-fetched given he was the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. Instead, however, Dodds projects Murray for 6.59 YPA, which is 0.69 -- nice! -- YPA below league average.
Likewise, Dodds projects Lamar Jackson for 6.35 YPA when his True YPA is over a yard higher at 7.52. Although not as egregious, ditto Josh Allen (6.54 projected YPA vs. 6.89 True YPA) and Cam Newton (6.86 projected YPA vs. 7.31 True YPA).
High-Variance Quarterbacks Projected Just Right
In the middle of the table, you'll find two quarterbacks for whom popular perception has seemed to settle squarely on "boom or bust," whereas TFP says they're slotted right where they should be given their "true" passing stats. Specifically, Dodds and TFP differ on Deshaun Watson by only 99 passing yards, with TDs and INTs identical. Similarly, Jimmy Garoppolo's True Passing Yards are within 100 of Dodds' projection; and both his TDs and INTs are only 1 off. In short, regardless of perception, barring something unforeseen affecting volume, Dodds has correctly projected Watson and Garoppolo as QB2 and QB19 (or thereabouts), respectively.
Back-to-Back Quarterback Champ
Last August, Carson Wentz was the most overrated quarterback with respect to the discrepancy between Dodds' projection and TFP. It's quite the accolade to have repeated this August. (I kid.) As was the case heading into 2018, Wentz's issue is that he was and still is at the bottom of the rankings in terms of YPA, which is the "stickiest" of the fantasy-relevant passing metrics. Heading into last season, Wentz's 6.88 True YPA ranked 22nd out of 25 quarterbacks I included in the table. Heading into 2019, Wentz's 7.05 True YPA ranks 25th out of 32 in this year's table.