#Trendspotting: Week 16

Examining player and team trends to identify valuable DFS options and start/sits in season-long leagues

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

  • All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
  • All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
  • All stats reference the full 2019 season unless otherwise specified.
  • All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:


Looks Can Be Deceiving

Viewing raw "defense vs. position" (DvP) stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength of opponents. So, in this section, we're going to compare our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) over the last five weeks vs. raw DvP for the entire season and find notable deltas between the two. The idea is to find defenses to target that other DFS players might not.

vs. Quarterbacks
Team NSoS DvP Delta Opponent
Dallas Cowboys 32 13 -19 Philadelphia Eagles
Denver Broncos 24 8 -16 Detroit Lions
San Francisco 49ers 20 7 -13 Los Angeles Rams
Washington Redskins 30 19 -11 New York Giants
Tennessee Titans 22 15 -7 New Orleans Saints
"NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
(see the link in the paragraph above for an explanation on NSoS)
"DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking
(raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
"Delta" = NSoS-DvP

Commentary

  • Over the past five weeks, Dallas has allowed 22.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, sixth-most in the NFL.
  • In that span, Dallas is allowing 31 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, fourth-most, and 0.6 rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, tied for the most.
  • Over the past five weeks, Carson Wentz has rushed for 62 yards, 17th-most among quarterbacks.
  • Over the past five weeks, Tennessee has allowed 16.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, 19th-most.
  • In that stretch, Tennessee has faced Nick Foles, Jacoby Brissett, Derek Carr, and Deshaun Watson.

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