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Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
Follow the Targets
This section will examine which offensive positions have the most success through the air against certain defenses.
RBs | WRs | TEs | ||||||||||||
Defense | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Opponent | ||||
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 18.2% | 6 | 1 | 62.3% | 32 | 19 | 19.5% | 29 | 7 | Indianapolis Colts | ||||
New York Jets | 22.3% | 27 | 1 | 61.0% | 20 | 16 | 16.7% | 8 | 2 | Miami Dolphins | ||||
Seattle Seahawks | 18.1% | 29 | 1 | 57.7% | 18 | 8 | 24.2% | 30 | 6 | Los Angeles Rams | ||||
Philadelphia Eagles | 23.6% | 21 | 1 | 58.3% | 22 | 16 | 18.1% | 9 | 4 | New York Giants | ||||
New Orleans Saints | 21.7% | 8 | 3 | 60.6% | 24 | 13 | 17.7% | 14 | 3 | San Francisco 49ers | ||||
Arizona Cardinals | 18.5% | 28 | 4 | 58.4% | 30 | 13 | 23.1% | 32 | 13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | ||||
Tennessee Titans | 22.9% | 26 | 3 | 56.0% | 23 | 9 | 21.1% | 24 | 6 | Oakland Raiders | ||||
Oakland Raiders | 21.7% | 25 | 6 | 54.5% | 21 | 13 | 23.8% | 23 | 8 | Tennessee Titans |
Commentary
- The Jets allow 49.5 receiving yards per game to running backs, sixth-most in the NFL.
- Seattle allows 66.8 yards per game to tight ends, third-most in the NFL.
- Seattle opponents target tight ends on 24.2% of pass attempts, the fourth-highest ratio.
- Rams tight ends have scored the 12th-most fantasy points among all tight end groups in the NFL.
- Arizona allows 188.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, third-most.
Action Items
Patrick Laird has received some irrational buzz recently, but his situation this week might merit some justifiable buzz. Aside from the fact that he caught 5 of Miami's 38 targets last week (13.2% share), Kalen Ballage is now injured and is doubtful to play, per the illustrious Dr. Jene.
On top of that, the Jets have notable injuries. All of this conspires to make Laird a viable GPP play in DFS. He's cheap enough that cash game viability is on the table, but his playing time in non-negative game scripts is still unproven.
#Jets S Jamal Adams (ankle) quietly leads team in pressures (15), blitzes (60), and sacks (6.5). Backups Blake Countess and Matthias Farley have combined for 3 defensive snaps all year. Potential winners: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mike Gesicki, Patrick Laird.
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) December 4, 2019
Also doubtful per Dr. Jene is Gerald Everett, which puts Week 13 DFS hero Tyler Higbee back in play. He's off the main slate, but Higbee is cash game viable in Thursday-Monday contests and a low-end TE1 in season-long leagues.
Also on the injury front, keep an eye on JuJu Smith-Schuster's status. James Washington has been building chemistry with his new duck-calling quarterback in ways you'd imaging and also ways you might not have seen coming. DraftKings has used the matchup and recent production to price up Washington to a point that it feels uncomfortable to play him, making him a GPP-only candidate.
Funnel Watch + Strengths and Weaknesses
This section will dissect how offenses gain their yards and how defenses allow them.
First, here are the traditional "Funnel Watch" tables. It's been a while since we've used this exact format, but long-time readers will remember that it used to be a staple of the column.
Pass Funnels
Team | PaYd/Gm | RuYd/Gm | NYd/Att | Yd/Rush | PassYd% | RushYd% | Opponent |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 281.8 | 76.3 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 78.7% | 21.3% | Indianapolis Colts |
Tennessee Titans | 260.1 | 102.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 71.8% | 28.2% | Oakland Raiders |
Atlanta Falcons | 259.5 | 108.7 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 70.5% | 29.5% | Carolina Panthers |
Oakland Raiders | 258.2 | 103.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 71.4% | 28.6% | Tennessee Titans |
PaYd/Gm = passing yards per game allowed
RuYd/Gm = rushing yards per game allowed
NYd/Att = net yards per pass attempts (passing yards - sack yards) / (pass attempts - times sacked)
Yd/Rush = yards per carry
"PassYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards allowed via the pass
"RushYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards allowed via the rush
This week is a Rent-a-Quarterback delight as each pass funnel defense is facing a not-so-elite quarterback. Tennessee and Oakland both appear on the list and play each other this week, making that game an interesting GPP game-stack option.
Run Funnels
Team | PaYd/Gm | RuYd/Gm | NYd/Att | Yd/Rush | PassYd% | RushYd% | Opponent |
San Francisco 49ers | 134.3 | 116.7 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 53.5% | 46.5% | New Orleans Saints |
Buffalo Bills | 195.8 | 104.3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 65.3% | 34.7% | Baltimore Ravens |
Cleveland Browns | 213.3 | 124.0 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 63.2% | 36.8% | Cincinnati Bengals |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 223.8 | 136.6 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 62.1% | 37.9% | Los Angeles Chargers |
Buffalo's elite pass defense might find it difficult to negate one phase of Baltimore's offense when that particular phase is the rarely-used passing game.
On the opposite side of things, San Francisco is a run funnel defense, but New Orleans is a pass-heavy offense. Let's look further into how offenses and defenses interact.
Strengths and Weaknesses
The tables below also show yards allowed, but they incorporate offenses too. The tables show the percentage of yards gained by an offense and the percentage this week's opponent allows defensively. The percentages are then averaged, and that's how the table is sorted.
For example, if Team A gains 80% of its yardage via the pass and Team B allows 70% of its yardage via the pass, that average is 75%, a high number that would suggest we should be looking at Team A's passing game this week.
Passing | ||||||
Offensive Team | PassYd% | Rank | Defensive Team | PassYd% | Rank | Avg. % |
Miami Dolphins | 77.3% | 2 | New York Jets | 76.3% | 31 | 76.8% |
Los Angeles Rams | 74.5% | 6 | Seattle Seahawks | 73.0% | 30 | 73.8% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 74.7% | 5 | Indianapolis Colts | 69.0% | 17 | 71.9% |
New York Giants | 69.8% | 15 | Philadelphia Eagles | 72.6% | 29 | 71.2% |
Atlanta Falcons | 79.9% | 1 | Carolina Panthers | 62.5% | 5 | 71.2% |
"PasYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "PaYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more passing yardage we can expect for the offense)
Commentary
- Miami gains 77.3% of its yardage via the pass, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
- The Jets allow 76.3% of their yardage via the pass, the second-highest ratio.
- Miami scores a touchdown on 67.7% of red zone drives, fourth-best in the NFL.
- The Jets allow a touchdown on 64.7% of red zone drives, third-worst.
- The Rams gain 74.5% of their yardage via the pass, the sixth-highest ratio.
- Seattle allows 73.0% of its yardage via the pass, the third-highest ratio.
- The Rams face pressure on 19.5% of dropbacks, the fifth-lowest ratio in the NFL.
- Seattle applies pressure on 18.0% of opponent dropbacks, the third-lowest ratio.
Action Items
Ryan Fitzpatrick is in play, but a low projected team total suggests a low floor, and a middling salary doesn't. Fitzpatrick is a GPP play but nothing more.
Seattle at L.A. Rams isn't on the main slate of most DFS sites, but Jared Goff is in play as a GPP option for non-traditional slates. Goff struggles against pressure, but Seattle isn't a high-pressure team.
Rushing | ||||||
Offensive Team | RushYd% | Rank | Defensive Team | RushYd% | Rank | Avg. % |
Baltimore Ravens | 49.4% | 1 | Buffalo Bills | 34.7% | 21 | 42.1% |
New Orleans Saints | 29.7% | 20 | San Francisco 49ers | 46.5% | 32 | 38.1% |
Cleveland Browns | 35.3% | 11 | Cincinnati Bengals | 38.9% | 31 | 37.1% |
Washington Redskins | 37.9% | 6 | Green Bay Packers | 32.6% | 18 | 35.3% |
Houston Texans | 34.8% | 12 | Denver Broncos | 35.1% | 22 | 34.9% |
"RuYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the rush
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "RuYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more rushing yardage we can expect for the offense)
Commentary
- Baltimore gains 49.4% of its yardage via the rush, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- Baltimore gains 5.6 yards per rush attempt, most in the NFL.
- Buffalo allows 24.7% of its yardage via the pass, the 12th-highest ratio.
- Cleveland gains 35.3% of its yardage via the rush, the 11th-highest ratio.
- Cincinnati allows 38.9% of its yardage via the rush, the second-highest ratio.
Action Items
Typically, stats like the Baltimore vs. Buffalo numbers above would point to Baltimore's running game, but as we know, much of Baltimore's rushing production is from Lamar Jackson. Mark Ingram is a GPP-only play and a difficult one at that, given that the Ravens are on the road as a short favorite after a high-impact win in Week 13.
Nick Chubb, however, is on a team that is a home favorite and should lean on him to produce. His price on DraftKings has been inflated to reflect the matchup, which is likely to drive his cash game buzz down. But Chubb is a GPP play who could score multiple touchdowns this week.
Looks Can Be Deceiving
Viewing raw "defense vs. position" (DvP) stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength of opponents. So, in this section, we're going to compare our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) over the last five weeks vs. raw DvP for the entire season and find notable deltas between the two. The idea is to find defenses to target that other DFS players might not.
vs. Quarterbacks | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
New York Jets | 29 | 12 | -17 | Miami Dolphins |
Cleveland Browns | 25 | 12 | -13 | Cincinnati Bengals |
Kansas City Chiefs | 21 | 10 | -11 | New England Patriots |
Tennessee Titans | 23 | 14 | -9 | Oakland Raiders |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 14 | 6 | -8 | Arizona Cardinals |
"NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking (last five weeks)
(see the link in the paragraph above for an explanation on NSoS)
"DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking (last five weeks)
(raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
"Delta" = NSoS-DvP
Commentary and Action Items
We discussed Fitzpatrick above, and his GPP case shows again here. Over the last five weeks, the Jets appear to be a middling team vs. quarterbacks, but their schedule has been weak. When adjusting for that schedule, they're the fourth-most friendly team to opposing quarterbacks.
Kansas City is a similar story, which makes Tom Brady appealing. After a couple of down weeks, Brady returned to fantasy prominence in Week 13, passing for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns, albeit in a losing effort. Brady is priced as the QB10 on the main slate at DraftKings. His upside exceeds that ranking.
vs. Running Backs | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Los Angeles Rams | 25 | 10 | -15 | Seattle Seahawks |
Chicago Bears | 22 | 12 | -10 | Dallas Cowboys |
Washington Redskins | 24 | 14 | -10 | Green Bay Packers |
Baltimore Ravens | 14 | 8 | -6 | Buffalo Bills |
Cleveland Browns | 8 | 3 | -5 | Cincinnati Bengals |
Commentary and Action Items
Don't get cute and shy away from Ezekiel Elliott despite him not rushing for more than 86 yards in each of the past four weeks and the tough-on-paper matchup. Chicago is softer than they appear, and there's some #NarrativeStreet potential for Elliott this week.
Green Bay should handle Washington easily, which puts both of its running backs in play this week. Due to the split of duties and the fact that the team went pass-heavy last week despite the wintry mix, neither is cash-game safe, but both are GPP-viable.
vs. Wide Receivers | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Cincinnati Bengals | 26 | 6 | -20 | Cleveland Browns |
Houston Texans | 17 | 4 | -13 | Denver Broncos |
Oakland Raiders | 18 | 7 | -11 | Tennessee Titans |
Kansas City Chiefs | 13 | 2 | -11 | New England Patriots |
New York Jets | 29 | 22 | -7 | Miami Dolphins |
Commentary and Action Items
The "-20" here for Cincinnati is the worst delta of any team at any position. Cincinnati stinks all over, which puts just about any Cleveland player in play. Prioritize Jarvis Landry over Odell Beckham; Baker Mayfield certainly does.
This stat on Courtland Sutton blew me away. Then, lo and behold, his Week 14 opponent is worse against receivers than they appear.
I don't know where you're valuing Courtland Sutton in dynasty, but it probably isn't high enough pic.twitter.com/hxgSMQoayI
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 3, 2019
vs. Tight Ends | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Detroit Lions | 26 | 11 | -15 | Minnesota Vikings |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 25 | 10 | -15 | Indianapolis Colts |
Philadelphia Eagles | 21 | 6 | -15 | New York Giants |
New York Giants | 28 | 15 | -13 | Philadelphia Eagles |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 18 | 5 | -13 | Los Angeles Chargers |
Commentary and Action Items
Kyle Rudolph has four touchdowns in his last three games and five in his last five. And there's no reason to assume the team will stop utilizing the tight end position this week. If Adam Thielen is out again, don't forget Irv Smith. Both Rudolph and Smith played 47 snaps each (85% of the team's total) as Minnesota went "12-heavy" last week.
Jack Doyle is a TE1 now, especially this week.
In Week 13, Jack Doyle...
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 3, 2019
* Saw a season-high 11 targets
* Ran a season-high 40 routes
* Played over 90% of snaps for the first time all year
• Got a team-high 3 red-zone targets
Now Doyle gets TB defense allowing 4th-most yards and fantasy points per game to TEs.
The Weakest Links
In this section, we'll discuss the matchups that you should look to exploit every week.
vs. Quarterbacks | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Arizona Cardinals | 32 | 32 | 0 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Detroit Lions | 31 | 25 | -6 | Minnesota Vikings |
Houston Texans | 29 | 29 | 0 | Denver Broncos |
New York Jets | 29 | 12 | -17 | Miami Dolphins |
New York Giants | 28 | 30 | 2 | Philadelphia Eagles |
Commentary and Action Items
Devlin Hodges deserves a recommendation, but his coaching staff has been conservative with him -- both in the media and with their play-calling. Below is the purest illustration ever of DraftKings matchup-based pricing algorithm:
Week 14 DraftKings pricing:
- Drew Brees - $5,900 (vs. San Francisco)
- Kyler Murray - $5,900 (vs. Pittsburgh)
- Devlin Hodges - $5,900 (at Arizona)
Here's another reminder that Fitzpatrick is in play this week in his visit to MetLife Stadium.
vs. Running Backs | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Carolina Panthers | 32 | 30 | -2 | Atlanta Falcons |
Arizona Cardinals | 31 | 27 | -4 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 30 | 31 | 1 | Los Angeles Chargers |
Houston Texans | 29 | 32 | 3 | Denver Broncos |
Detroit Lions | 27 | 23 | -4 | Minnesota Vikings |
Commentary and Action Items
In his debut, Drew Lock targeted his running backs on 7 of his 26 attempts (26.9%). If that percentage held for the entirety of the season, it would be the highest rate in the league. Houston allowed 8-98-2 to James White last week. Phillip Lindsay should be in your GPP player pool.
vs. Wide Receivers | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32 | 32 | 0 | Indianapolis Colts |
Miami Dolphins | 31 | 26 | -5 | New York Jets |
Detroit Lions | 30 | 27 | -3 | Minnesota Vikings |
New York Jets | 29 | 22 | -7 | Miami Dolphins |
Minnesota Vikings | 27 | 30 | 3 | Detroit Lions |
Commentary and Action Items
Parris Campbell practiced in full today after missing four weeks with a hand injury. There have been two games in which T.Y. Hilton has not played but Campbell has. Campbell saw eight targets in the first (Week 4) and eight touches in the second (Week 9). Tampa Bay is the worst team in the NFL against wide receivers on both a raw and adjusted basis.
Kenny Golladay this season:
- Games with Jeff Driskel (3) - 6 targets, 2.7 receptions, 50.7 yards, 0.3 touchdowns, 9.7 PPR points
- Games without Jeff Driskel (9) - 7.4 targets, 4.3 receptions, 88.7 yards, 0.9 touchdowns, 18.5 PPR points
vs. Tight Ends | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Arizona Cardinals | 32 | 32 | 0 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Cleveland Browns | 30 | 18 | -12 | Cincinnati Bengals |
Green Bay Packers | 30 | 28 | -2 | Washington Redskins |
New Orleans Saints | 29 | 21 | -8 | San Francisco 49ers |
New York Giants | 28 | 15 | -13 | Philadelphia Eagles |
Commentary and Action Items
"Will Pittsburgh utilize Vance McDonald" meets "the team that gets beaten so badly by tight ends, it's a running joke." So, will Pittsburgh utilize McDonald?
As if you need a reason beyond "he's excellent" to play George Kittle, now you have one.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com