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Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Happy Thanksgiving and Turkey Slate Targets
- Follow the Targets
- Strengths and Weaknesses
- The Weakest Links
Happy Thanksgiving and Turkey Slate Targets
Happy Thanksgiving to all. Some may find this to be an overrated holiday, but it's my personal favorite. I'd like to thank each and every Footballguys subscriber - especially those who click on this sometimes-too-long mind-dump I call #Trendspotting each week.
As a special thank-you, here are some players to target on the three-game Thanksgiving Day slate. Please also check out our special Power Grid episode dedicated to this slate. But don't worry, we also covered the entire main slate as well.
In no particular order, here are some solid plays for Thursday's games. Note: these are mostly GPP plays because playing cash games on three-game slates is a difficult task.
Player | Comments |
Tarik Cohen | DET 32nd NSoS vs. RBs in the last five weeks; CHI target distribution narrowed |
Ezekiel Elliott | Most concentrated RB touch distribution on the slate; home favorite; BUF 30th NSoS RBs |
Anthony Miller | Bears injuries will push him into a bigger role; DET yielding big days to slots lately (Renfrow and Cobb) |
Isaiah McKenzie | No fewer than 54% snaps across last four games; six designed rush attempts show team willingness to use him |
Javon Wims | Bears WR and TE injuries trickle-down effect; min-priced player who will be on the field |
Chicago DST | They were good before we knew Driskel was out; now they face an undrafted rookie on a short week |
Jared Cook | The only TE of consequence on the slate; differentiate around him |
Jaeden Graham | If you must fade Cook do it with Graham |
Michael Thomas | Hard to pass on 5 straight over 100 yards and 8 straight with 8+ catches |
Follow the Targets
This section will examine which offensive positions have the most success through the air against certain defenses.
RBs | WRs | TEs | ||||||||||||
Defense | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Opponent | ||||
Arizona Cardinals | 20.0% | 29 | 4 | 56.7% | 27 | 12 | 23.3% | 32 | 12 | Los Angeles Rams | ||||
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17.1% | 4 | 1 | 62.6% | 32 | 18 | 20.3% | 31 | 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | ||||
Detroit Lions | 20.0% | 30 | 7 | 63.0% | 25 | 11 | 17.0% | 23 | 4 | Chicago Bears | ||||
Seattle Seahawks | 17.0% | 19 | 1 | 59.3% | 22 | 7 | 23.6% | 29 | 5 | Minnesota Vikings | ||||
Oakland Raiders | 21.7% | 26 | 5 | 55.5% | 28 | 13 | 22.8% | 20 | 8 | Kansas City Chiefs | ||||
Atlanta Falcons | 20.8% | 12 | 3 | 58.9% | 30 | 14 | 20.3% | 10 | 4 | New Orleans Saints | ||||
New York Giants | 20.2% | 18 | 0 | 63.3% | 31 | 15 | 16.4% | 3 | 3 | Green Bay Packers | ||||
Houston Texans | 23.3% | 31 | 4 | 55.3% | 14 | 14 | 21.4% | 16 | 3 | New England Patriots |
Commentary
- Detroit is allowing 58.0 receiving yards per game to running backs, third-most in the NFL.
- Detroit has allowed seven receiving touchdowns to running backs, most in the NFL.
- Chicago targets its running backs on 27.9% of pass attempts, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Chicago running backs catch 31.7% of the team's total receptions, the fourth-highest ratio.
- Chicago running backs gain 20.2% of the team's receiving yardage, the ninth-highest ratio.
- Arizona is allowing 76.9 yards per game to tight ends.
- Arizona is allowing 1.1 touchdowns per game to tight ends.
- Arizona is allowing 21.4 DraftKings points per game to tight ends.
- All of those totals are the worst in the NFL.
- Oakland has allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends, second-most in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay is allowing 15.5 receptions per game to wide receivers.
- Tampa Bay is allowing 206.1 yards per game to wide receivers.
- Tampa Bay is allowing 1.6 touchdowns per game to wide receivers.
- Tampa Bay is allowing 49.7 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers.
- All of those totals are the worst in the NFL.
Action Items
He was included in the Turkey Slate section above, but Tarik Cohen is worth another mention. Detroit is putrid against running backs, Chicago doesn't want to throw it all over the field, and Chicago's target distribution is more narrow this week due to injuries. Cohen was a better play before Jeff Driskel was declared out, but he's still a good value. David Montgomery is now also in play for a more run-heavy approached and clock-killing mode.
"Arizona vs. tight ends" has been one of the more consistently exploitable matchups at any position all season long. In a typical week, the Rams tight end duo that loses snaps to "11" personnel wouldn't be a safe and appealing option.
But Gerald Everett is hurt, and Tyler Higbee is coming off a six-target, 70% snap rate performance on Monday night. Higbee is also the DraftKings minimum price, putting his squarely in play if Everett is out. It's a stretch to say he's cash viable, but it's not the craziest thing in the world to say.
In another narrow target distribution situation, if Tyreek Hill is out or limited with his hamstring issue, Travis Kelce is basically a wide receiver (and likely a WR1). The team's total is high, the matchup is pristine, and the team likes to target him. Without a full complement of weapons, those efficient targets should only rise.
Another consistently exploitable matchup has been passing games against Tampa Bay. And Jacksonville has three viable wide receivers. Let's see how those players have been utilized since Nick Foles returned in Week 11.
Week 11 | Week 12 | Combined | ||||||||||
Player | Snap % | Tgt % | AirYd% | Snap % | Tgt % | AirYd% | Snap % | Tgt % | AirYd% | |||
D.J. Chark | 93.7% | 32.6% | 51.5% | 93.3% | 13.6% | 14.7% | 93.4% | 23.3% | 34.1% | |||
Dede Westbrook | 84.1% | 13.0% | 9.5% | 83.1% | 20.5% | 13.9% | 83.6% | 16.7% | 11.6% | |||
Chris Conley | 95.2% | 17.4% | 22.0% | 73.0% | 20.5% | 46.3% | 82.2% | 18.9% | 33.5% | |||
Team Total | 63 | 46 | 423 | 89 | 44 | 380 | 152 | 90 | 803 |
D.J. Chark clearly dominated the group in Week 11, but Conley looked like the preferred option in Week 12. Due to Chark's higher price tag, none of these guys give the warm-and-fuzzies in cash, but Chark and Conley are GPP-worthy. The number of rosters they are on is likely to be lower since many DFS players won't know which one to choose.
Strengths and Weaknesses
This section will dissect how offenses gain their yards and how defenses allow them.
Passing | ||||||
Offensive Team | PaYd% | Rank | Defensive Team | PaYd% | Rank | Avg. % |
Atlanta Falcons | 80.4% | 1 | New Orleans Saints | 72.4% | 28 | 76.4% |
Cincinnati Bengals | 73.3% | 8 | New York Jets | 75.7% | 31 | 74.5% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 76.2% | 2 | Oakland Raiders | 71.9% | 26 | 74.0% |
Miami Dolphins | 76.1% | 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 71.1% | 24 | 73.6% |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 67.8% | 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 78.6% | 32 | 73.2% |
"PaYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "PaYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more passing yardage we can expect for the offense)
Commentary
- Atlanta gains 80.4% of its total yardage via the pass, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- New Orleans allows 72.4% of its total yardage via the pass, the fifth-highest ratio.
- Kansas City gains 76.2% of its total yardage via the pass, the second-highest ratio.
- Oakland allows 71.9% of its total yardage via the pass, the seventh-highest ratio.
- Oakland allows 54.9% of its points via passing touchdowns, the second-highest ratio.
- Kansas City's average depth of target (aDOT) is 8.9 yards, sixth-highest in the NFL.
- Oakland allows an aDOT of 9.8 yards, second-highest in the NFL.
- Kansas City passes on 69.2% of its neutral-script plays, the highest ratio.
- Oakland faces a pass on 62.1% of its neutral-script plays, the fifth-highest ratio.
- Cincinnati gains 73.3% of its total yardage via the pass, the eighth-highest ratio.
- The Jets allow 75.7% of their total yardage via the pass, the second-highest ratio.
- Cincinnati passes on 64.8% of its neutral-script plays, the fourth-highest ratio.
- The Jets face a pass on 66.1% of its neutral-script plays, the highest ratio.
Action Items
The first two bullets above suggest that Matt Ryan is a nice play, but Ryan is trending down. He only has three games all season where he hasn't passed for over 300 yards, but all three have come in his last four games. On a small slate Thursday, there are better options.
Kansas City has the week's highest projected team total. Both the matchup against Oakland and the unclear running back situation suggest that Patrick Mahomes II will be the primary driver of the point-scoring for the Chiefs. At the top end of the quarterback spectrum, Mahomes should be the preferred play over Lamar Jackson this week.
Good DFS quarterback options are not limited to the top of the pricing spectrum. Andy Dalton will be re-inserted as the starter in Cincinnati, and his sub-$5,000 (DraftKings) price tag is intriguing. The Jets yielded above-average performances to Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Gardner Minshew before Oakland crashed to earth in a let-down spot last week.
In fact, the Jets rank second-to-last in Normalized Strength of Schedule over the last five weeks. Dalton is a prime GPP candidate this week but is also viable in cash formats.
Rushing | ||||||
Offensive Team | RuYd% | Rank | Defensive Team | RuYd% | Rank | Avg. % |
Baltimore Ravens | 48.6% | 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 44.8% | 32 | 46.7% |
Houston Texans | 35.9% | 9 | New England Patriots | 38.4% | 29 | 37.1% |
Carolina Panthers | 36.2% | 8 | Washington Redskins | 37.3% | 27 | 36.7% |
Philadelphia Eagles | 35.8% | 10 | Miami Dolphins | 37.0% | 26 | 36.4% |
Oakland Raiders | 34.4% | 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | 38.1% | 28 | 36.2% |
"RuYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the rush
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "RuYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more rushing yardage we can expect for the offense)
Commentary
- Carolina gains 36.2% of its total yardage via the run, the eighth-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Washington allows 37.3% of its total yardage via the run, the sixth-highest ratio.
- Carolina scores 34.7% of its points via rushing touchdowns, the highest ratio.
- Washington allows 2.21 points per drive, seventh-most in the NFL.
- Washington allows 27.3 rushes per game to running backs, second-most.
- Philadelphia gains 35.8% of its total yardage via the run, the 10th-highest ratio.
- Miami allows 37.0% of its total yardage via the run, the seventh-highest ratio.
- Miami allows 2.62 points per drive, most in the NFL.
- Miami faces a run on 45.6% of its neutral-script plays, the sixth-highest ratio in the NFL.
Action Items
Play Christian McCaffrey. Below are some things he has done in the past two weeks:
- Scored 33.1 DraftKings points in a game where his team scored 3 points.
- Scored 34.3 DraftKings points on the road against a team that had been the third-most difficult running back matchup over the prior five weeks, per Normalized Strength of Schedule.
Furthering his case, McCaffrey has finished as an RB1 in a remarkable 10 of 11 games this season. A popular backfield pairing with McCaffrey due to both players' prices is Miles Sanders. Jordan Howard should once again miss the game, making Sanders a solid play once more. Philadelphia's offense has been dreadful recently, but that can be attributed to missing Lane Johnson for the last two games and Brandon Brooks leaving last week's game early.
Miami's defense - along with those players returning - should provide a cure for what has been ailing the Eagles. And Sanders' recent usage suggests that his production is due to rise.
Miles Sanders in two games as PHL's starter:
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 25, 2019
* 85% of the snaps
* 64% of the RB carries
* 100% of the RB targets
* 18.3 total fantasy points
The Weakest Links
In this section, we'll discuss the matchups that you should look to exploit every week.
vs. Quarterbacks | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Detroit Lions | 32 | 28 | -4 | Chicago Bears |
New York Jets | 31 | 22 | -9 | Cincinnati Bengals |
Tennessee Titans | 30 | 24 | -6 | Indianapolis Colts |
Cleveland Browns | 28 | 19 | -9 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Houston Texans | 28 | 26 | -2 | New England Patriots |
Commentary and Action Items
Remember that time we suggested playing Andy Dalton? You may not want to watch this game, but he's worth a click (and the cap savings that it brings).
Mitchell Trubisky almost made the Turkey Slate list as well, but the game environment in Detroit took a big hit with Driskel's injury. These things feel weird to type, but they still merit consideration.
vs. Running Backs | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Detroit Lions | 32 | 25 | -7 | Chicago Bears |
Buffalo Bills | 30 | 22 | -8 | Dallas Cowboys |
Carolina Panthers | 30 | 31 | 1 | Washington Redskins |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 29 | 28 | -1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Miami Dolphins | 28 | 20 | -8 | Philadelphia Eagles |
Commentary and Action Items
It's hard to fault any split of the Chicago backfield across GPP lineups on the Turkey Slate. But one (or both) backs deserve consideration in almost every lineup.
Speaking of every lineup, the only way to overweight the field on Thursday is to have at-or-near 100% Ezekiel Elliott. The matchup and projected game script are right.
Miles Sanders is viable in all formats. He has cash game usage lately but GPP-desirable results, meaning he hasn't paid off in two weeks where the masses hoped he would.
vs. Wide Receivers | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Minnesota Vikings | 32 | 27 | -5 | Seattle Seahawks |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31 | 32 | 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
Cincinnati Bengals | 30 | 20 | -10 | New York Jets |
New York Jets | 29 | 25 | -4 | Cincinnati Bengals |
Miami Dolphins | 28 | 23 | -5 | Philadelphia Eagles |
Commentary and Action Items
Will Jets-Bengals be a shootout? What a slate we're dealing with here in Week 13. Tyler Boyd performed admirably last week against a better defense with Ryan Finley involved. Dalton and the matchup should both provide a shot in the arm for he and Auden Tate this week.
GPP players should incorporate a sprinkling of Jacksonville's receivers across their portfolio. The matchup is right, and all three have had at least one WR1 performance and at least two WR2 outings this season.
vs. Tight Ends | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Cleveland Browns | 32 | 14 | -18 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Detroit Lions | 31 | 16 | -15 | Chicago Bears |
New Orleans Saints | 30 | 20 | -10 | Atlanta Falcons |
Green Bay Packers | 29 | 32 | 3 | New York Giants |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 28 | 24 | -4 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
Commentary and Action Items
Both Evan Engram (foot) and Rhett Ellison (concussion) are injured and did not practice on Wednesday. Monitor their statuses because if they don't play, a sixth-round rookie for the Giants is intriguing. Kaden Smith saw 59-of-60 snaps and ran 41 routes last week against Chicago with the two players ahead of him out with injury.
Smith also saw 16% of the team's targets and ended the game with a modest-but-promising 5-17-1 line. We've seen Stanford tight ends produce before, and with another week of elite opportunity, Smith could pay off.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com