#Trendspotting: Week 11

Examining player and team trends to identify valuable DFS options and start/sits in season-long leagues

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

  • All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
  • All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
  • All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
  • All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:


How Will They Score?

This is a concept created by Ben Gretch at Rotoviz and now published on FantasyLabs. However, it's one I wanted to share as it is an interesting way to think about how teams score and allow points and can lead to some surprise/contrarian lineup decisions. For some background, see the bullet-point summary below.

  • Take each team's implied Vegas team total
  • Average the percentage of points that team scores via passing touchdowns and the percentage their opponent allows via passing touchdowns
  • Multiply that average percentage by the implied total
  • Do the same for rushing touchdowns

Note: Passing + Rushing won't add up to the entire team total. There are kicking and defense/special teams points as well. However, those aren't as predictable, so we're focusing on offense only.

Passing Points

Offense Defense LV Total Off PaTD% Def PaTD% Proj. Pass
Kansas City Chiefs Los Angeles Chargers 28.00 46.5% 43.3% 12.57
New Orleans Saints Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28.00 41.2% 47.3% 12.39
San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals 28.75 32.4% 53.4% 12.34
Baltimore Ravens Houston Texans 27.00 32.0% 56.5% 11.95
Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars 23.50 55.7% 41.3% 11.39

Commentary

  • New Orleans scores 41.2% of its points via passing touchdowns, the 16th-highest ratio in the NFL.
  • Tampa Bay allows 47.3% of its points via passing touchdowns, the eighth-highest ratio.
  • New Orleans gains 70.8% of its yardage via the pass, the 13th-highest ratio.
  • Tampa Bay allows 79.4% of its yardage via the pass, the highest ratio in the NFL.
  • San Francisco scores 32.4% of its points via passing touchdowns, the ninth-lowest ratio.
  • Arizona allows 53.4% of its points via passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest ratio.
  • Baltimore scores 32.0% of its points via passing touchdowns, the fifth-lowest ratio.
  • Houston allows 56.5% of its points via passing touchdowns, the third-highest ratio.
  • Baltimore gains 53.2% of its yardage via the pass, the lowest ratio in the NFL.
  • Houston allows 76.7% of its yardage via the pass, the second-highest ratio.

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