As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
How Will They Score?
This is a concept created by Ben Gretch at Rotoviz and now published on FantasyLabs. However, it's one I wanted to share as it is an interesting way to think about how teams score and allow points and can lead to some surprise/contrarian lineup decisions. For some background, see the bullet-point summary below.
- Take each team's implied Vegas team total
- Average the percentage of points that team scores via passing touchdowns and the percentage their opponent allows via passing touchdowns
- Multiply that average percentage by the implied total
- Do the same for rushing touchdowns
Note: Passing + Rushing won't add up to the entire team total. There are kicking and defense/special teams points as well. However, those aren't as predictable, so we're focusing on offense only.
|Offense||Defense||LV Total||Off PaTD%||Def PaTD%||Proj. Pass|
|Kansas City Chiefs||Los Angeles Chargers||28.00||46.5%||43.3%||12.57|
|New Orleans Saints||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||28.00||41.2%||47.3%||12.39|
|San Francisco 49ers||Arizona Cardinals||28.75||32.4%||53.4%||12.34|
|Baltimore Ravens||Houston Texans||27.00||32.0%||56.5%||11.95|
|Indianapolis Colts||Jacksonville Jaguars||23.50||55.7%||41.3%||11.39|
- New Orleans scores 41.2% of its points via passing touchdowns, the 16th-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay allows 47.3% of its points via passing touchdowns, the eighth-highest ratio.
- New Orleans gains 70.8% of its yardage via the pass, the 13th-highest ratio.
- Tampa Bay allows 79.4% of its yardage via the pass, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- San Francisco scores 32.4% of its points via passing touchdowns, the ninth-lowest ratio.
- Arizona allows 53.4% of its points via passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest ratio.
- Baltimore scores 32.0% of its points via passing touchdowns, the fifth-lowest ratio.
- Houston allows 56.5% of its points via passing touchdowns, the third-highest ratio.
- Baltimore gains 53.2% of its yardage via the pass, the lowest ratio in the NFL.
- Houston allows 76.7% of its yardage via the pass, the second-highest ratio.
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