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Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Follow the Targets
- Strengths and Weaknesses
- Volume vs. Touchdowns
- How Will They Score?
- Looks Can Be Deceiving
- Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
- The Weakest Links
Follow the Targets
This section will examine which offensive positions have the most success through the air against certain defenses.
RBs | WRs | TEs | ||||||||||||
Defense | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Opponent | ||||
Miami Dolphins | 17.0% | 21 | 3 | 59.7% | 13 | 10 | 23.3% | 23 | 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | ||||
Atlanta Falcons | 16.9% | 4 | 3 | 60.3% | 30 | 10 | 22.8% | 15 | 4 | Seattle Seahawks | ||||
Oakland Raiders | 24.5% | 25 | 2 | 55.0% | 25 | 10 | 20.5% | 26 | 4 | Houston Texans | ||||
Cincinnati Bengals | 26.7% | 31 | 3 | 55.1% | 5 | 5 | 18.2% | 14 | 1 | Los Angeles Rams | ||||
New York Giants | 20.7% | 26 | 0 | 62.0% | 27 | 8 | 17.3% | 4 | 2 | Detroit Lions | ||||
Los Angeles Chargers | 19.9% | 13 | 2 | 60.2% | 7 | 7 | 19.9% | 13 | 3 | Chicago Bears | ||||
Philadelphia Eagles | 21.6% | 17 | 0 | 60.4% | 31 | 11 | 18.0% | 11 | 3 | Buffalo Bills | ||||
Arizona Cardinals | 13.0% | 5 | 2 | 59.7% | 18 | 7 | 27.3% | 32 | 8 | New Orleans Saints |
This week, we added the column on the right to show this week's opponent for each of these poor defenses. This should make it easier to identify which offensive players we want to target.
Commentary
The strengths of the opposing offenses don't align as well with the weaknesses of these defenses as we'd like. Here are a few examples:
- Houston wide receivers account for 68.7% of its receptions, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- Oakland yields 51.8% of its receptions to wide receivers, the ninth-lowest ratio.
With Will Fuller's injury, it would appear to be "Kenny Stills Week," but Oakland has done well against receivers this season. And their opponents seem to be aware of it, as teams haven't targeted wide receivers at a high rate vs. Oakland.
- Cincinnati yields 31.1% of its receptions to running backs, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
- The Rams running backs account for 10.2% of their receptions, the lowest ratio.
This week feels like an exploitable situation for the Rams, especially for Todd Gurley. But if he is to exceed expectations, he'll either have to do so on the ground, or the Rams will have to change what they have been doing offensively.
- Arizona yields 32.0% of its passing yardage to tight ends, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- New Orleans gains 16.0% of its passing yardage via tight ends, the 11th-lowest ratio in the NFL.
New Orleans wasn't using its tight ends when Jared Cook was healthy. But we know Sean Payton to be a strong offensive mind. If there was ever a game to scheme his tight ends into the game plan, this is the one. With Cook out, Josh Hill will see a boost in usage. He scored last week and could do so again this week. Hill is an interesting DFS GPP flier.
Some other notes:
The New York Giants allow 53.3 receiving yards per game to running backs, seventh-most in the NFL. We don't know how the Detroit backfield will play out, so there's no direct action there. But the Giants being poor against multiple positions through the air is one of many signals pointing to Matthew Stafford this week.
Philadelphia allows 197.6 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, second-most in the NFL. They have also yielded 11 touchdowns to wideouts, third-most. John Brown took advantage of a good matchup last week. Expect him to do it again this week. Brown is a WR2 in season-long leagues and a GPP play in DFS.
Strengths and Weaknesses
This section will dissect how offenses gain their yards and how defenses allow them.
Passing | ||||||
Offensive Team | PaYd% | Rank | Defensive Team | PaYd% | Rank | Avg. % |
Cincinnati Bengals | 82.6% | 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 70.9% | 22 | 76.7% |
Los Angeles Chargers | 79.8% | 3 | Chicago Bears | 71.5% | 24 | 75.6% |
Atlanta Falcons | 81.4% | 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 69.7% | 19 | 75.6% |
Tennessee Titans | 66.7% | 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 81.7% | 32 | 74.2% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 79.5% | 4 | Green Bay Packers | 66.2% | 11 | 72.8% |
"PaYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "PaYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more passing yardage we can expect for the offense)
Commentary
- The L.A. Chargers gain 79.8% of their yardage via the pass, the third-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Chicago allows 71.5% of its yardage via the pass, the ninth-highest ratio.
- Philip Rivers has 300+ yards and 2 touchdowns in four of his last five games.
Rushing | ||||||
Offensive Team | RuYd% | Rank | Defensive Team | RuYd% | Rank | Avg. % |
San Francisco 49ers | 44.6% | 2 | Carolina Panthers | 34.6% | 24 | 39.6% |
Minnesota Vikings | 40.9% | 3 | Washington Redskins | 36.3% | 27 | 38.6% |
Carolina Panthers | 36.7% | 8 | San Francisco 49ers | 40.3% | 30 | 38.5% |
Indianapolis Colts | 36.7% | 7 | Denver Broncos | 35.5% | 26 | 36.1% |
Los Angeles Rams | 26.1% | 26 | Cincinnati Bengals | 43.9% | 32 | 35.0% |
"RuYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the rush
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "RuYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more rushing yardage we can expect for the offense)
Commentary
- San Francisco gains 44.6% of its total yardage via the run, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Carolina allows 34.6% of its total yardage via the run, the ninth-highest ratio.
- Indianapolis gains 36.7% of its total yardage via the run, the seventh-highest ratio.
- Denver allows 35.5% of its total yardage via the run, the seventh-highest ratio.
Action Items
With its defense keeping game script friendly, San Francisco's run game is always in play. This week, that rings especially true because Carolina is much better against the pass than the run. But which San Francisco back are we to use? Let's see how the usage between their top two has played out since Tevin Coleman's return in Week 5.
Snaps | Carries | Targets | ||||||||||
Player | Wk 5 | Wk 6 | Wk 7 | Wk 5 | Wk 6 | Wk 7 | Wk 5 | Wk 6 | Wk 7 | |||
Tevin Coleman | 34.2% | 55.1% | 65.6% | 40.0% | 45.0% | 54.1% | 0.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | |||
Matt Breida | 34.2% | 35.9% | 26.6% | 27.5% | 32.5% | 21.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 5.0% | |||
Team Total | 76 | 78 | 64 | 40 | 40 | 37 | 28 | 31 | 20 |
On the season (which includes Coleman's two-game absence), Coleman has 16 red zone opportunities (carries plus targets) compared to just 3 for Breida. Those numbers are 5 to 1 for opportunities from the 5-yard-line and in.
Jacoby Brissett has thrown a touchdown on 6.9% of his pass attempts, an unsustainably high amount.
- Indianapolis gains 63.3% of its total yardage via the pass, the seventh-lowest ratio in the NFL.
- Indianapolis scores 58.7% of its points via passing touchdowns, the third-highest ratio.
- The delta between Indianapolis ranking of 26th for passing yards ratio and 3rd for passing touchdowns ratio (23) is the highest such delta in the NFL.
And Brissett's touchdowns aren't just happening from anywhere; they're coming from in close at an incredible rate.
Colts are 72.2% pass inside of the 5-yard line this season, the highest rate in the league. The rest of the league is 38.5% pass inside of the five.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) October 21, 2019
You can see the "parent" tweet there regarding Patrick Mahomes II. It's worth noting that Brissett already has 8 passing touchdowns from inside the 5, already nearing Mahomes' league-leading total from 2018.
Eventually, those touches from inside the 5-yard-line will go to the run game. And that's where Marlon Mack comes in. Considering that Denver is tough against the pass and has been friendly against the run, some of this regression could hit this week. Mack is an excellent GPP pivot from the similarly-priced Chase Edmonds.
Volume vs. Touchdowns
Touchdowns are the biggest factor in fantasy football scoring, but they're also the most unpredictable. Snaps, touches, and yards are more predictive of future value than touchdowns. Therefore, this section will look at players in the top-36 at wide receiver and running back and the top-24 at quarterback and examine what percentage of their fantasy points come from touchdowns.
The intent here is to identify players with positive touchdown regression forthcoming.
Wide Receivers | |||||||
Player | Tgts | Tgt% | Rec | ReYd | TDs | FPs/Gm | TD FP% |
Tyler Boyd | 73 | 26.1% | 45 | 470 | 1 | 13.8 | 6.2% |
Robert Woods | 58 | 20.6% | 37 | 437 | 1 | 13.1 | 6.5% |
D.J. Moore | 49 | 23.9% | 33 | 425 | 1 | 13.7 | 7.3% |
Odell Beckham | 54 | 27.7% | 29 | 436 | 1 | 13.2 | 7.6% |
Brandin Cooks | 45 | 16.0% | 27 | 402 | 1 | 11.2 | 7.7% |
Dede Westbrook | 54 | 24.0% | 32 | 383 | 1 | 11.2 | 7.7% |
Michael Gallup | 39 | 16.8% | 27 | 421 | 1 | 15.0 | 8.0% |
Julian Edelman | 68 | 25.7% | 45 | 496 | 2 | 15.8 | 10.8% |
Michael Thomas | 79 | 33.8% | 62 | 763 | 3 | 22.3 | 11.5% |
John Brown | 45 | 23.4% | 33 | 473 | 2 | 15.5 | 12.9% |
Larry Fitzgerald | 55 | 22.2% | 36 | 439 | 2 | 13.1 | 13.1% |
Emmanuel Sanders | 43 | 19.5% | 30 | 367 | 2 | 11.5 | 14.9% |
Tgts = Targets
Tgt% = Percentage of team targets
Rec = Receptions
ReYd = Receiving Yards
TDs = Touchdowns
FPs/Gm = PPR Fantasy Points per game
TD FP% = Percentage of PPR Fantasy Points via touchdowns
Commentary and Action Items
Last week, this space recommended Brown, Woods, Gallup, and Larry Fitzgerald. The results were mixed, but some of those players remain here. And instead of Fitzgerald, how about his younger, more explosive teammate that should be back from injury soon?
Here are the players above with the easiest upcoming schedules:
- Michael Thomas (vs. ARI, bye, vs. ATL, at TB). Good luck getting him with Drew Brees due back soon. But if the manager with Thomas is desperate for a win in Week 9, use that bye week to your advantage.
- Tyler Boyd (at LAR, bye, vs. BAL, at OAK)
- Michael Gallup (bye, at NYG, vs. MIN, at DET)
- John Brown (vs. PHI, vs. WAS, at CLE, at MIA)
Running Backs | |||||||
Player | Rush | Tgts | RuYd | ReYd | TDs | FPs/Gm | TD FP% |
Chris Thompson | 23 | 38 | 79 | 275 | 0 | 10.4 | 0.0% |
Leonard Fournette | 144 | 38 | 715 | 203 | 1 | 17.7 | 4.8% |
Royce Freeman | 76 | 31 | 319 | 177 | 1 | 11.5 | 7.4% |
James White | 21 | 48 | 61 | 283 | 1 | 13.1 | 7.6% |
Miles Sanders | 63 | 21 | 220 | 230 | 1 | 9.3 | 9.2% |
Duke Johnson Jr | 44 | 23 | 273 | 127 | 1 | 8.4 | 10.2% |
Alvin Kamara | 86 | 39 | 373 | 276 | 2 | 18.4 | 10.9% |
LeVeon Bell | 100 | 40 | 326 | 175 | 2 | 15.2 | 13.2% |
Marlon Mack | 119 | 12 | 514 | 54 | 2 | 13.5 | 14.9% |
Matt Breida | 74 | 13 | 414 | 74 | 2 | 11.9 | 16.8% |
Saquon Barkley | 55 | 25 | 309 | 82 | 2 | 16.3 | 18.4% |
Frank Gore | 86 | 8 | 388 | 48 | 2 | 10.4 | 19.2% |
Rush = Carries
Tgts = Targets
RuYd = Rushing Yards
ReYd = Receiving Yards
TDs = Touchdowns
FPs/Gm = PPR Fantasy Points per game
TD FP% = Percentage of PPR Fantasy Points via touchdowns
Commentary and Action Items
Last week, we recommended Fournette, Freeman, and Mack here. Those are all still viable buy-low assets.
- James White (vs. CLE, at BAL, bye, at PHI). Baltimore and Philadelphia aren't great running back matchups, but White isn't a traditional running back. Expect him to be on the field plenty against those pass-susceptible teams.
- Matt Breida (vs. CAR, at ARI, vs. SEA, vs. ARI). Coleman is being utilized at a high rate, and this offense is fruitful for the run game.
- Saquon Barkley (at DET, vs. DAL, at NYJ, bye). It's unlikely you'll be able to buy Barkely in season-long leagues. But for DFS purposes, expect touchdowns to come soon.
Fournette's schedule isn't as friendly from a season-long perspective, but any player getting his usage is worth our attention. And someone this productive without the benefit of scoring is bound to put up big numbers. Fournette is a cash game play in DFS this week.
Mack's situation is similar to Fournette's in that the schedule isn't worth the reach in season-long leagues, but the positive touchdown regression is. We've talked about Brissett's negative regression coming, so Mack being a positive regression candidate makes sense. Mack is a GPP play this week with 100-yard bonus potential and/or two touchdown potential.
Quarterbacks | |||||||
Player | Comp | Atts | PaYd | PaTD | RuTD | FPs/Gm | TD FP% |
Kyler Murray | 167 | 259 | 1769 | 7 | 2 | 19.0 | 30.0% |
Joe Flacco | 151 | 230 | 1647 | 6 | 0 | 11.0 | 31.2% |
Marcus Mariota | 94 | 159 | 1180 | 7 | 0 | 14.0 | 33.3% |
Gardner Minshew | 139 | 226 | 1697 | 10 | 0 | 16.7 | 34.1% |
Lamar Jackson | 136 | 215 | 1650 | 11 | 3 | 25.4 | 34.9% |
Philip Rivers | 183 | 276 | 2114 | 11 | 0 | 16.4 | 38.3% |
Comp = Completions
Att = Attempts
PaYd = Passing Yards
PaTD = Passing Touchdowns
RuTD = Rushing Touchdowns
FPs/Gm = PPR Fantasy Points per game
TD FP% = Percentage of PPR Fantasy Points via touchdowns
Commentary and Action Items
This space discussed Aaron Rodgers last week. That went well. Let's look ahead:
- Gardner Minshew (vs. NYJ, vs. HOU, bye, at IND). It's worth noting that Nick Foles is eligible to return in Week 11.
Rivers doesn't have the best schedule coming up, but he's a positive regression candidate. And unlike Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson, Rivers' "TD FP%" isn't being skewed by rushing stats. Rivers is 4th in passing yards but 10th in fantasy points.
We talked above about Brissett's inevitable touchdown regression. Consider that among the top-24 quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, Brissett has the highest percentage of fantasy points from touchdowns (54.1%). That's another mark in the unsustainable production column.
How Will They Score?
This is a concept created by Ben Gretch when he wrote at Rotoviz. However, it's one I wanted to share as it is an interesting way to think about how teams score and allow points and can lead to some surprise/contrarian lineup decisions. For some background, see the bullet-point summary below.
- Take each team's implied Vegas team total
- Average the percentage of points that team scores via passing touchdowns and the percentage their opponent allows via passing touchdowns
- Multiply that average percentage by the implied total
- Do the same for rushing touchdowns
Note: Passing + Rushing won't add up to the entire team total. There are kicking and defense/special teams points as well. However, those aren't as predictable, so we're focusing on offense only.
Passing Points
Offense | Defense | LV Total | Off PaTD% | Def PaTD% | Proj. Pass |
Houston Texans | Oakland Raiders | 29.00 | 42.2% | 58.2% | 14.55 |
Seattle Seahawks | Atlanta Falcons | 28.50 | 49.7% | 45.7% | 13.60 |
New Orleans Saints | Arizona Cardinals | 28.75 | 40.2% | 53.1% | 13.42 |
Minnesota Vikings | Washington Redskins | 29.00 | 40.6% | 47.7% | 12.81 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | Miami Dolphins | 28.75 | 39.0% | 45.5% | 12.15 |
Detroit Lions | New York Giants | 28.25 | 52.3% | 32.1% | 11.93 |
Commentary
- Houston scores an average of 2.45 points per drive, fifth-most in the NFL.
- Oakland allows an average of 2.66 points per drive, third-most.
- Houston is scoring touchdowns on 65.4% of red zone drives, the fourth-highest conversion rate in the NFL.
- Oakland is allowing touchdowns on 68.4% of red zone drives against, the second-worst conversion rate.
- Oakland allows 58.2% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the second-highest ratio.
- Seattle averages 7.5 net yards per pass attempt, fifth-highest in the NFL.
- Atlanta allows 8.2 net yards per pass attempt, second-highest.
- Atlanta allows an average of 3.01 points per drive, most in the NFL.
- Seattle is scoring touchdowns on 64.3% of red zone drives, the seventh-highest conversion rate in the NFL.
- Atlanta is allowing touchdowns on 65.5% of red zone drives against, the sixth-worst conversion rate.
- Detroit averages 7.2 net yards per pass attempt, seventh-highest in the NFL.
- The Giants allow 7.7 net yards per pass attempt, fourth-highest.
- Detroit attempts a deep pass on 24.3% of its attempts, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
- The Giants face a deep pass on 19.0% of their attempts against, the 11th-highest ratio.
- The Giants defense faces an average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.8 yards, the eighth-highest in the NFL.
- The Giants defense surrenders a completion percentage of 69%, the sixth-highest.
Action Items
That's a lot to unpack, so let's go team-by-team:
Houston
Both Stills and Keke Coutee are in play, making it harder to justify DeAndre Hopkins in cash games for those unwilling to roster too many players on one team. Stills is in play for cash games, while Coutee may be overlooked, making him a GPP option. Deshaun Watson projects as the overall QB1, but he's hard to fit in cash games.
Seattle
There's some worry that this game could play out like Seattle at Arizona when many were disappointed by the Seahawks passing game. Chris Carson's usage of late has been true bell-cow status. He's the most desirable Seattle asset in cash games, and he could even catch a touchdown from Wilson.
Detroit
This game projects as a shootout, with Stafford and company being the catalyst. Stafford is a great option in all DFS formats and a QB1 for season-long leagues. Kenny Golladay was the forgotten man last week, but he's still the better big play and red zone threat when the matchup is good. Golladay is the preferred GPP option in Detroit.
Rushing Points
Offense | Defense | LV Total | Off RuTD% | Def RuTD% | Proj. Rush |
Los Angeles Rams | Cincinnati Bengals | 30.75 | 31.6% | 29.0% | 9.32 |
Green Bay Packers | Kansas City Chiefs | 26.25 | 29.3% | 36.0% | 8.58 |
New England Patriots | Cleveland Browns | 30.00 | 32.3% | 19.5% | 7.77 |
Minnesota Vikings | Washington Redskins | 29.00 | 34.4% | 17.0% | 7.46 |
San Francisco 49ers | Carolina Panthers | 23.50 | 30.8% | 31.6% | 7.33 |
Houston Texans | Oakland Raiders | 29.00 | 29.2% | 18.2% | 6.87 |
Commentary and Action Items
We mentioned above that Gurley may not produce in the passing game. That may not matter, considering how these teams play and how this game should go. Gurley is a low-end RB1 in season-long leagues but not a cash game play in DFS due to better options at similar price points.
San Francisco appears here again. Coleman is the preferred option for as long as he and Breida are similarly-priced.
Looks Can Be Deceiving
Viewing raw "defense vs. position" (DvP) stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength of opponents. So, in this section, we're going to compare our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) over the last five weeks vs. raw DvP for the entire season and find notable deltas between the two. The idea is to find defenses to target that other DFS players might not.
vs. Quarterbacks | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 25 | 13 | -12 | New York Jets |
Chicago Bears | 21 | 11 | -10 | Los Angeles Chargers |
Washington Redskins | 16 | 7 | -9 | Minnesota Vikings |
Los Angeles Chargers | 16 | 9 | -7 | Chicago Bears |
Green Bay Packers | 21 | 15 | -6 | Kansas City Chiefs |
"NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
(see the link in the paragraph above for an explanation on NSoS)
"DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking
(raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
"Delta" = NSoS-DvP
Commentary and Action Items
Chicago is known for its fierce defense, but these are the quarterbacks they have faced since seeing Rodgers in Week 1: Joe Flacco, Case Keenum, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, and Teddy Bridgewater. The matchup is difficult, but they can be had. As mentioned above, Rivers has a handful of 300-yard games this season and positive regression heading his way.
vs. Running Backs | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Arizona Cardinals | 30 | 12 | -18 | New Orleans Saints |
Buffalo Bills | 24 | 11 | -13 | Philadelphia Eagles |
Atlanta Falcons | 26 | 13 | -13 | Seattle Seahawks |
Los Angeles Chargers | 23 | 13 | -10 | Chicago Bears |
Miami Dolphins | 31 | 25 | -6 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Commentary and Action Items
If Alvin Kamara sits again, Latavius Murray will resume a three-down plus goal-line role. At modest pricing, Murray should be among the first names clicked for cash games this week.
Once adjusted for schedule, Atlanta becomes a prime on-paper matchup. That's another feather in the cap for Carson.
vs. Wide Receivers | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Green Bay Packers | 24 | 14 | -10 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Miami Dolphins | 23 | 16 | -7 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 11 | 4 | -7 | Miami Dolphins |
Cincinnati Bengals | 17 | 11 | -6 | Los Angeles Rams |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 22 | 17 | -5 | New York Jets |
Commentary and Action Items
Cincinnati isn't the juiciest matchup, but this is a reminder that we shouldn't forget about the Rams wide receivers. Remember, L.A. hasn't used the backs in the passing game this year. And they are slated to score over 30 points this week according to Vegas.
Cincinnati allows an aDOT of just 6.8 yards, the second-lowest number in the NFL. Here are the Rams wide receivers by aDOT this season:
- Brandin Cooks - 13.9 yards
- Robert Woods - 8.6 yards
- Cooper Kupp - 7.0 yards
This doesn't seem like the best spot for Cooks. And of Kupp and Woods, the GPP flier is Woods due to a cheaper price tag and the positive touchdown regression mentioned above.
vs. Tight Ends | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Cincinnati Bengals | 31 | 10 | -21 | Los Angeles Rams |
New Orleans Saints | 24 | 11 | -13 | Arizona Cardinals |
Washington Redskins | 23 | 12 | -11 | Minnesota Vikings |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 17 | 8 | -9 | New York Jets |
Los Angeles Chargers | 27 | 19 | -8 | Chicago Bears |
Commentary and Action Items
Don't forget about Everett and Hill as GPP darts.
Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
The speed at which teams play is an often-overlooked piece of fantasy analysis and projections. If teams play fast, they give their players more chances for production. Because offenses have more control over tempo than defenses, we'll look at the fastest offenses and the speed of the offenses they're facing this week.
Note: the pace rankings here are based on neutral situations, so end-game situations that would increase or decrease pace due to factors beyond a team's general preference have been excluded. All pace stats are courtesy of Football Outsiders.
We won't provide commentary this week. The games that project to have extra volume should be apparent.
Uptempo Offense | Pace Rank | Opposing Offense | Pace Rank |
Los Angeles Rams | 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3 |
Arizona Cardinals | 2 | New Orleans Saints | 22 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | Los Angeles Rams | 1 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 4 | Green Bay Packers | 21 |
New England Patriots | 5 | Cleveland Browns | 25 |
Carolina Panthers | 6 | San Francisco 49ers | 9 |
Atlanta Falcons | 7 | Seattle Seahawks | 23 |
New York Giants | 8 | Detroit Lions | 12 |
San Francisco 49ers | 9 | Carolina Panthers | 6 |
Houston Texans | 11 | Oakland Raiders | 27 |
Detroit Lions | 12 | New York Giants | 8 |
The Weakest Links
In this section, we'll discuss the matchups that you should look to exploit every week.
vs. Quarterbacks | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Atlanta Falcons | 32 | 32 | 0 | Seattle Seahawks |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31 | 31 | 0 | Tennessee Titans |
Miami Dolphins | 30 | 24 | -6 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Oakland Raiders | 29 | 30 | 1 | Houston Texans |
Cincinnati Bengals | 28 | 26 | -2 | Los Angeles Rams |
Houston Texans | 27 | 29 | 2 | Oakland Raiders |
Arizona Cardinals | 26 | 25 | -1 | New Orleans Saints |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 25 | 13 | -12 | New York Jets |
Season-long fantasy managers in a pinch might be squeamish about it, but using Ryan Tannehill this week isn't the worst idea. Tampa Bay is dreadful against quarterbacks, and they haven't even played any legitimate quarterbacks when you factor in the Cam Newton played through injury in their Week 2 game. In DFS, Tannehill is tempting as a cap-saver.
vs. Running Backs | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Kansas City Chiefs | 32 | 30 | -2 | Green Bay Packers |
Miami Dolphins | 31 | 25 | -6 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Arizona Cardinals | 30 | 12 | -18 | New Orleans Saints |
Detroit Lions | 28 | 32 | 4 | New York Giants |
Green Bay Packers | 27 | 23 | -4 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Atlanta Falcons | 26 | 13 | -13 | Seattle Seahawks |
Chicago Bears | 25 | 31 | 6 | Los Angeles Chargers |
Buffalo Bills | 24 | 11 | -13 | Philadelphia Eagles |
Here's another reminder to play Murray (pending Kamara's health). Beyond that, Barkley is intriguing this week. Dalvin Cook torched the Detroit defense in their home stadium, and Barkley will look to do the same. At the top of the running back pricing, Barkley should be prioritized over Christian McCaffrey (at San Francisco).
While Atlanta showed up in the quarterbacks chart, suggesting Russell Wilson, they show up here too. Carson is the preferred Seattle play.
Chicago is 25th is NSoS and 31st in raw DvP vs. running backs. They have yielded a 100-yard rusher, multiple touchdowns, and 8 or more running back receptions in back-to-back games since losing Akiem Hicks to injury. He won't return this season.
If the Chargers choose to exploit the receiving part of that trend with Austin Ekeler, that's another plus for Rivers.
vs. Wide Receivers | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32 | 32 | 0 | Tennessee Titans |
Atlanta Falcons | 31 | 31 | 0 | Seattle Seahawks |
Houston Texans | 30 | 30 | 0 | Oakland Raiders |
Minnesota Vikings | 29 | 25 | -4 | Washington Redskins |
Cleveland Browns | 28 | 27 | -1 | New England Patriots |
Oakland Raiders | 27 | 22 | -5 | Houston Texans |
Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | 26 | 1 | Buffalo Bills |
Green Bay Packers | 24 | 14 | -10 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Take your choice of the three Houston receivers against Oakland. That passing game should have success against a unit that suggested Rodgers was a good play last week and made it so.
vs. Tight Ends | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32 | 31 | -1 | Tennessee Titans |
Cincinnati Bengals | 31 | 10 | -21 | Los Angeles Rams |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 30 | 27 | -3 | Miami Dolphins |
Arizona Cardinals | 29 | 32 | 3 | New Orleans Saints |
Oakland Raiders | 28 | 23 | -5 | Houston Texans |
Los Angeles Chargers | 27 | 19 | -8 | Chicago Bears |
Los Angeles Rams | 26 | 26 | 0 | Cincinnati Bengals |
New Orleans Saints | 24 | 11 | -13 | Arizona Cardinals |
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