Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Follow the Targets
- Tweets of the Week
- Looks Can Be Deceiving
- Playcalling Preferences
- Going Deep
- Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
- Games of the Week
Follow the Targets
This section will examine which offensive positions have the most success through the air against certain defenses.
RBs | WRs | TEs | ||||||||||
Team | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | |||
Miami Dolphins | 18.2% | 23 | 3 | 56.4% | 17 | 6 | 25.5% | 30 | 1 | |||
New York Giants | 17.1% | 24 | 0 | 63.0% | 31 | 8 | 19.9% | 7 | 2 | |||
Cincinnati Bengals | 32.4% | 32 | 3 | 54.0% | 6 | 4 | 13.7% | 10 | 1 | |||
Atlanta Falcons | 17.0% | 1 | 0 | 60.5% | 29 | 10 | 22.4% | 16 | 2 | |||
Baltimore Ravens | 15.8% | 7 | 1 | 68.5% | 30 | 4 | 15.8% | 21 | 1 | |||
Los Angeles Chargers | 19.5% | 5 | 1 | 57.9% | 12 | 5 | 22.6% | 12 | 3 | |||
Arizona Cardinals | 13.5% | 11 | 0 | 58.3% | 13 | 6 | 28.2% | 32 | 6 |
Commentary
The table above shows the seven worst teams in net yards per pass attempt allowed (with Miami being the worst).
- Cincinnati's opponents target running backs on 32.4% of their pass attempts, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- Cincinnati has allowed three receiving touchdowns to running backs, tied for the most in the NFL.
- Atlanta allows 197.0 yards per game to wide receivers, fourth-most.
- Atlanta has allowed 10 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, most in the NFL.
- Arizona allows 92.2 yards per game to tight ends, most in the NFL.
- Baltimore allows 200.8 yards per game to wide receivers, third-most.
Speaking of how Baltimore allows its production, let's look at that defense vs. its Week 6 opponent.
- Cincinnati targets its wide receivers on 65.2% of its pass attempts, the fifth-highest ratio in the league.
- Baltimore opponents target wide receivers on 68.5% of their pass attempts, the third-highest ratio.
- Cincinnati gains 81.7% of its pass yards via wide receivers, the second-highest ratio.
- Baltimore allows 68.9% of its pass yards via wide receivers, the sixth-highest ratio.
Action Items
Cincinnati is far from a good team, but their offensive output is predictable, which is something to target in fantasy football. Despite being without A.J. Green for the whole season and now without John Ross, the Bengals continue to utilize wide receivers at a high rate. And with options limited, Tyler Boyd continues to benefit.
Outside of the Monday night game in Pittsburgh where the whole offense was terrible, Boyd has no fewer than 6 receptions and 60 yards in any other game this season. He has two games with at least 10 catches and 120 yards as well. Boyd is a locked-in cash game play in DFS and a WR1 in season-long leagues. Baltimore's passing defense isn't what it used to be.
Atlanta's defense is terrible, especially since Keanu Neal's injury. They are yielding most of their production to wide receivers. This week, they face a team that likes to utilize its wide receivers. Fire up Larry Fitzgerald, who has no fewer than five receptions in any game this season. Along with Fitzgerald, Kyler Murray is in play. He has been a high-floor play so far this year, but Murray's ceiling could be raised this week.
Arizona allowed only 4 receptions for 30 yards to Cincinnati tight ends last week, and they're still yielding 3.7 more fantasy points per game than the second-worst team against the position. Tight end Defense vs. Position stats can be noisy, but Austin Hooper is a focal point of Atlanta's offense.
Hooper is seeing 19% of Atlanta's targets, the seventh-highest market share among tight ends. Hooper has also seen the sixth-most air yards among all tight ends. Hooper is priced high but is cash game viable in DFS.
Tweets of the Week
Kyler is good, Part I.
Quarterbacks with 16 or more standard fantasy points in each of their first five games:
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 7, 2019
Patrick Mahomes II
Kyler Murray
Gardner Minshew
Note: This should also include Matt Ryan, but the point about Murray remains.
Kyler is good, Part II.
Kyler Murray currently has a 2.0% touchdown rate, one of the worst in the league, but he's still a top-10 fantasy quarterback this season.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 7, 2019
Commentary
Murray is thriving despite a low touchdown rate and a head coach who has opted to kick field goals in goal-to-go situations at a rate that would make you think he's twice as old as he actually is. Let's take a quick look at Murray's upcoming schedule:
- This week: vs. Atlanta (30th in Normalized Strength of Schedule vs. QBs)
- Week 7: at N.Y. Giants (27th)
- Week 8: at New Orleans (20th)
- Week 9: vs. San Francisco (3rd)
- Week 10: at Tampa Bay (32nd)
- Week 11: at San Francisco (3rd)
Outside of the San Francisco games, Murray's schedule is a cakewalk. Schedule and touchdown regression both suggest he is about to explode, and this week could be the beginning.
As a cherry on top, consider that Atlanta has allowed a touchdown on 65.0% of red zone drives faced, the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. The Falcons also allow 3.0 points per drive, second-worst in the league.
Matt Ryan: Also Consistent
Matt Ryan (fantasy's No. 2 QB in points per game last season) has five straight 300-yard games to open this season.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 6, 2019
Commentary
- Atlanta is gaining 313.2 passing yards per game, third-most in the NFL.
- Atlanta gains 82.2% of its total yardage via the pass, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- Atlanta attempts 44.4 passes per game, tied for the most in the NFL.
Action Items
If Murray isn't your preferred choice at quarterback this week, look no further than his opponent. Atlanta has offensive line issues, but Arizona doesn't have a fearsome pass rush.
How to Handle the Kansas City Backfield
Chiefs RBs last night (all healthy for the first time since Week 1):
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) October 7, 2019
* Damien Williams 35-of-63 snaps, 9 carries, 4 targets
* LeSean McCoy 14 snaps, 0 carries, 2 targets
* Darrel Williams 14 snaps, egg
Commentary
Kansas City's backfield is a committee, but it's a two-man show. Darrell Williams was useful in Weeks 3 and 4, but with Damien Williams back, Darrell returned to the background. Below is how the Chiefs backfield breaks down in Damien's three healthy games.
If snaps are your metric of choice, it could be argued that it's a three-man committee. But even then, it would be approximately 50%-25%-25% with the lion's share favoring Damien Williams.
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 5 | ||||||||||
Player | Snap % | Rush % | Tgt % | Snap % | Rush % | Tgt % | Snap % | Rush % | Tgt % | |||
Damien Williams | 76.3% | 56.5% | 17.6% | 51.3% | 42.9% | 11.4% | 55.6% | 90.0% | 10.5% | |||
LeSean McCoy | 33.9% | 43.5% | 2.9% | 40.8% | 52.4% | 6.8% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 5.3% | |||
Darrell Williams | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||
Team Total | 59 | 23 | 34 | 76 | 21 | 44 | 63 | 10 | 38 |
Action Items
Houston is yielding 9.0 receptions per game to running backs, most in the NFL. That number is high because they have faced some of the league's best pass-catching backs (Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Austin Ekeler), but Williams is a capable pass-catcher as well. And Andy Reid has a history of using his backs in the passing game. Williams is an interesting GPP candidate in DFS and a low-end RB2 in season-long leagues.
Looks Can Be Deceiving
This is a new twist on viewing our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS). In the table below, all columns represent NSoS rankings (32 being the worst, 1 the best). The table is sorted by the average of those figures, and the 10 worst defenses by this measure in the league are shown.
Team | NSoS vs. QBs | NSoS vs. RBs | NSoS vs. WRs | NSoS vs. TEs | NSoS Avg. |
Miami Dolphins | 31 | 32 | 22 | 23 | 27 |
Washington Redskins | 29 | 25 | 28 | 18 | 25 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32 | 1 | 31 | 30 | 24 |
New York Giants | 27 | 18 | 26 | 18 | 22 |
Atlanta Falcons | 30 | 10 | 32 | 16 | 22 |
Oakland Raiders | 26 | 6 | 27 | 29 | 22 |
Baltimore Ravens | 20 | 29 | 29 | 9 | 22 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 22 | 31 | 10 | 22 | 21 |
Cleveland Browns | 23 | 17 | 18 | 24 | 21 |
Arizona Cardinals | 25 | 9 | 16 | 32 | 21 |
"NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
(see the link in the paragraph above for an explanation on NSoS)
"NSoS Average" = the average all rankings shown for each team
Commentary
Tampa Bay has the third-worst average NSoS despite being the toughest defense against running backs. Consider this:
TB has faced Kamara, McCaffrey, Gurley, Barkley and Tevin/Breida so far. They lead entire NFL in yards per carry allowed.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 7, 2019
NSoS is supposed to adjust when a team like Tampa Bay has faced a murderer's row of players at one position. Typically, facing a schedule like this would leave a defense in the middle of the pack (or worse) from a raw Defense vs. Position standpoint. But Tampa is excellent from a raw perspective as well.
- Tampa Bay allows 82.3% of its total yardage via the pass, the highest ratio in the NFL (which means they allow the lowest percentage of rushing yards).
- Tampa Bay faces 68.2 plays per game, fourth-most in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay allows 336.8 passing yards per game, most in the NFL.
- The last three quarterbacks to face Tampa Bay have all finished as top-four performers that week.
Action Items
Good as Christian McCaffrey is, the way to beat Tampa Bay is through the air, which means Kyle Allen is in play. Allen is a solid Rent-a-Quarterback option this week. And remember, this game is not in Tampa Bay; it's in London.
Similar to Tampa Bay is Atlanta. The Falcons have a poor average NSoS despite being the 10th-most difficult team against running backs. This is even more reason to like Arizona's passing game.
Playcalling Preferences
In this section, we'll look at how teams call plays. Because game script and red zone can skew pass-to-run ratios, the percentages below only show plays called when the game is within seven points in either direction and plays run between the 20s.
Passing
Offensive Team | Pass% | Defensive Team | Pass% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 75.3% | Houston Texans | 63.3% |
Cincinnati Bengals | 66.0% | Baltimore Ravens | 64.4% |
Cleveland Browns | 64.8% | Seattle Seahawks | 68.6% |
Carolina Panthers | 64.7% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 62.0% |
Green Bay Packers | 64.4% | Detroit Lions | 57.0% |
New England Patriots | 64.0% | New York Giants | 59.3% |
Los Angeles Rams | 63.8% | San Francisco 49ers | 63.0% |
Commentary
- Kansas City calls a pass on 75.3% of its neutral-script plays, the highest rate in the NFL.
- Houston faces a passing play on 63.3% of its neutral-script plays, the eighth-highest rate.
- Cincinnati calls a pass on 66.0% of its neutral-script plays, the third-highest rate.
- Baltimore faces a passing play on 64.4% of its neutral-script plays, the sixth-highest rate.
- Cleveland calls a pass on 64.8% of its neutral-script plays, the fifth-highest rate.
- Seattle faces a passing play on 68.6% of its neutral-script plays, the third-highest rate.
- Carolina calls a pass on 64.7% of its neutral-script plays, the sixth-highest rate.
- Tampa Bay faces a passing play on 62.0% of its neutral-script plays, the 12th-highest rate.
Action Items
After last week's fantasy bonanza, it appears that there could be more fireworks if all of the pass-happy teams can be efficient against their pass-susceptible defensive opponents. Four pass-happy offenses should see volume bumps:
- Kansas City
- Cincinnati
- Cleveland
- Carolina
You don't come here to be told to play Patrick Mahomes II. And Baker Mayfield is in disarray right now. So let's focus on Cincinnati and Carolina. This isn't a recommendation of Andy Dalton; it's another reminder to play Tyler Boyd. Auden Tate was saved by a touchdown last week, but he did play 100% of the team's snaps. Going back to a popular play that failed the week before is a DFS tale as old as time.
Speaking of hyped players who have failed lately, Curtis Samuel's breakout has been delayed. But Samuel had his two best games against Tampa Bay last season (WR10 and WR19 weeks). Also consider the following:
- Samuel has 524 air yards this season, 10th-most in the NFL.
- Samuel has 227 receiving yards this season, 49th-most.
- This 39-spot delta is the highest such delta in the NFL (tied with DeVante Parker).
Will Fuller had a 51-spot delta heading into last week, and we know how that went. Combine that with Tampa's poor pass defense over the past three weeks, and the recipe is set for Samuel's emergence on to the 2019 fantasy football scene.
Rushing
Offensive Team | Rush% | Defensive Team | Rush% |
Baltimore Ravens | 56.7% | Cincinnati Bengals | 46.2% |
San Francisco 49ers | 50.6% | Los Angeles Rams | 50.4% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 50.0% | Carolina Panthers | 43.9% |
Minnesota Vikings | 49.3% | Philadelphia Eagles | 38.3% |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 47.6% | New Orleans Saints | 42.1% |
Commentary
- Baltimore calls a run on 56.7% of its neutral-script plays, the highest rate in the NFL.
- Cincinnati faces a run on 46.2% of its neutral-script plays, the seventh-highest rate.
- San Francisco calls a run on 56.7% of its neutral-script plays, the second-highest rate.
- The Rams face a run on 50.4% of their neutral-script plays, the second-highest rate.
Action Items
Mark Ingram is the lead back on a run-heavy team that is a considerable home favorite. Check, check, and check. Ingram is a GPP play with multi-touchdown potential. After this week, he might be a sell-high in season-long leagues due to a minimal passing game role and a backfield split with Gus Edwards that not many seem to notice.
Matt Breida is very good at football. But the team's committee, offensive line injuries, and status as a road underdog make Breida and his backfield mates difficult recommendations.
Going Deep
In this section, we'll examine teams that throw deep passes at a high rate vs. the defenses they are playing against this week. This section defines a deep pass attempt as an attempt of 15 or more air yards.
Offensive Team | Att./Gm. | Deep% | Defensive Team | Att./Gm. | Deep% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 12.0 | 30.6% | Houston Texans | 7.2 | 17.8% |
Detroit Lions | 9.5 | 27.0% | Green Bay Packers | 6.8 | 19.2% |
Miami Dolphins | 8.3 | 24.3% | Washington Redskins | 5.2 | 14.9% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.6 | 22.9% | Carolina Panthers | 6.8 | 18.4% |
Baltimore Ravens | 7.4 | 22.0% | Cincinnati Bengals | 5.2 | 17.9% |
Houston Texans | 7.0 | 21.9% | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.8 | 22.0% |
"Att./Gm." = the number of passes 15 yards or more downfield attempted by an offense or faced by a defense
"Deep%" = the percentage of overall passes that are 15 or more yards downfield thrown by an offense or faced by a defense
Commentary
- Kansas City attempts 12.0 deep passes per game, most in the NFL.
- Kansas City attempts a deep pass on 30.6% of its pass attempts, the highest rate in the NFL.
- Houston attempts a deep pass on 21.9% of its pass attempts, the sixth-highest rate.
- Kansas City faces a deep pass on 22.0% of pass attempts against, the fifth-highest rate.
Action Items
Who's excited for Patrick Mahomes II and DeSean Watson? A battle of deep balls is the perfect game for Tyreek Hill's return, so stay tuned. Hill is always a solid GPP option, but this week, it might be truer than ever. There might be some hesitation to roster a player that hasn't played since Week 1.
If Hill doesn't play, Byron Pringle becomes the chalk after his Week 5 breakout game. His salary is far too cheap for a player that could see five or more targets in this offense.
Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
The speed at which teams play is an often-overlooked piece of fantasy analysis and projections. If teams play fast, they give their players more chances for production. Because offenses have more control over tempo than defenses, we'll look at the fastest offenses and the speed of the offenses they're facing this week.
Note: the pace rankings here are based on neutral situations, so end-game situations that would increase or decrease pace due to factors beyond a team's general preference have been excluded. All pace stats are courtesy of Football Outsiders.
Uptempo Offense | Pace Rank | Opposing Offense | Pace Rank |
Los Angeles Rams | 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 4 |
Arizona Cardinals | 2 | Atlanta Falcons | 5 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | Houston Texans | 10 |
San Francisco 49ers | 4 | Los Angeles Rams | 1 |
Atlanta Falcons | 5 | Arizona Cardinals | 2 |
New England Patriots | 6 | New York Giants | 12 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 19 |
Carolina Panthers | 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 14 |
Miami Dolphins | 9 | Washington Redskins | 30 |
Houston Texans | 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 3 |
Both columns show offensive tempo rankings.
Commentary
1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 5, 3 vs. 10, 6 vs. 12, and 8 vs. 14! This has to be one of the fastest on-paper weeks in recent memory. Along with being fast, the majority of these offenses are also good!
Action Items
Cooper Kupp is seeing 29% of the Rams targets, has finished as a WR1 in each of the last three weeks, leads all wide receivers in targets, and is the overall WR3 in PPR leagues. Cash game lineups are trickier this week than last, but it's hard to make a cash build without Kupp.
Atlanta and Arizona appear once again. Don't forget about Christian Kirk, who could return this week.
Games of the Week
We love it when a good on-paper game environment results in a shootout. In honor of last week's Atlanta at Houston game, which did exactly that, we're listing two potential shootouts this week and some takeaways from each.
Kansas City (O) at Houston (D)
Commentary
- Kansas City gains 80.1% of its total yardage via the pass, the third-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Houston allows 74.0% of its total yardage via the pass, the seventh-highest ratio.
- Kansas City attempts 39.2 passes per game, sixth-most.
- Houston faces 40.4 passes per game, third-most.
- Kansas City averages 2.78 points per drive, second-most.
Houston (O) vs. Kansas City (D)
Commentary
- Houston gains 5.1 yards per rush, seventh-most in the NFL.
- Kansas City allows 5.3 yards per rush, second-most.
- Houston averages 12.4 neutral-script rushes per game, second-most.
- Kansas City faces 12.2 neutral-script rushes per game, fourth-most.
Action Items
It seems impossible to say, but Carlos Hyde is in play. Indianapolis showed future Kansas City opponents that they can run the ball and play ball-control offense against the Chiefs. Hyde is Houston's clear lead-back in rushing situations, especially near the goal line. Houston should have success running the ball. If they can keep Kansas City's offense contained, Hyde should see enough volume for a flex-worthy performance.
Atlanta (O) at Arizona (D)
Commentary
- Atlanta has scored 64.7% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- Arizona has allowed 52.2% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the sixth-highest ratio.
- Arizona is allowing 24.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends, most in the NFL (this includes a 7.0-point showing from Cincinnati's tight ends last week).
Action Items
Austin Hooper should be on every player list for DFS this week. He's more of a GPP play because it's hard to pay up for a tight end in cash this week. But Hooper could easily score 4x his price.
Arizona (O) vs. Atlanta (D)
Commentary
- Arizona gains 67.5% of its passing yardage via wide receivers, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Atlanta opponents gain 62.7% of their passing yardage via wide receivers, the fifth-highest ratio.
- Arizona gains 74.9% of its passing yards via wide receivers, the eighth-highest ratio.
- Atlanta opponents gain 74.8% of their passing yards via wide receivers, the third-highest ratio.
Action Items
The Kyler Murray breakout begins this week. Stack him with Larry Fitzgerald and/or Christian Kirk. Bring it back with Austin Hooper.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com