#Trendspotting: Week 3

Examining player and team trends to identify valuable DFS options and start/sits in season-long leagues

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

  • All highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams or players.
  • All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
  • All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
  • All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

Looks Can Be Deceiving

In later installments of this section, we'll examine our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) metric against raw Defense vs. Position (DvP) stats. But since NSoS doesn't debut until Week 5, let's find some other early-season trends that can be deceiving.

The idea is to examine teams significantly better or worse in 2019 than they were in 2018 and see if those drastic changes are exploitable going forward ("real") or if they're mostly due to small sample size ("noise").

Team 2018 2019 Delta
Arizona vs. QBs 5 31 -26
Tampa Bay vs. QBs 30 5 25
Atlanta vs. RBs 29 15 14
Pittsburgh vs. RBs 8 26 -18
Green Bay vs. WRs 28 4 24
Jacksonville vs. WRs 1 18 -17
Baltimore vs. WRs 6 20 -14
Atlanta vs. WRs 27 7 20
N.Y. Giants vs. WRs 9 30 -21
Rankings shown in 2018 and 2019 columns are DvP
(raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
"Delta" = ranking decline or improvement from 2018 to 2019

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