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In a normal, non-PPR league, which rookie wide receiver has the most value for the 2019 season? Does your answer change for PPR leagues?
Jason Wood
I wouldn't have answered this way a month ago, but the pick now is D.K. Metcalf. With Doug Baldwin's career over, Russell Wilson has plenty of targets in search of a new recipient, and Metcalf will get a chance to be an immediate every-down starter. I have long-time concerns about Metcalf because of his physicality. He couldn't stay healthy in college and I suspect he won't in the NFL, either, because he's overbuilt. But for a year? There's no reason to think he can't be relevant as a No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy option as long as he shows well in training camp.
Daniel Simpkins
The receiver that could have the most value in both formats is NKeal Harry. Harry arguably found his way into the best situation of the whole class and, though not the best receiver in this group, he is easily among the top five. He can play both outside and as a big slot option. I expect the Patriots will move him around the formation and capitalize on the mismatches he will create. He’s also going to help them in the red zone, which will be much needed with the loss of Rob Gronkowski.
Phil Alexander
Parris Campbell is the only rookie wide receiver I expect to flirt with top-30 fantasy numbers this year. He'll gobble up targets underneath in Indianapolis while defenses figure out ways to keep up with T.Y. Hilton downfield, defend Devin Funchess outside, and account for Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron over the middle.
Plenty of competition for targets exists for Campbell in Indianapolis, but few teams will have more targets to spread around. The Colts threw the ball 39.6 times per game last year, which trailed only Pittsburgh and Green Bay for the league lead, and their gameplan shouldn't change heading into 2019.
Campbell will benefit from high percentage targets and favorable one-on-one matchups like most NFL slot receivers, but he's uniquely qualified to rip off chunk plays after the catch. With legit 4.3 speed and outstanding burst, Campbell is going to be fun to watch on the turf in Indianapolis. Bump him up further if your league counts kick-return stats.
Sigmund Bloom
D.K. Metcalf is going to get a chance to start with Russell Wilson, who made Tyler Lockett a top 24 receiver on a ridiculously low number of targets. Wilson has an excellent deep ball and Metcalf should be even more valuable in nonPPR since that deemphasizes volume. Mecole Hardman might be No. 1 if Tyreek Hill misses the season or even half of the season. NKeal Harry is an obvious contender if Demaryius Thomas doesn't bounce back from his Achilles tear. Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, Andy Isabella, Parris Campbell, and Hakeem Butler are all in the mix. PPR makes it even muddier because of Seattle's low pass attempts, and someone like Hunter Renfrow enters the fringe of the picture.
Dan Hindery
In both formats, Deebo Samuel has the best combination of polish and opportunity. He’s already 23-years old and started for three seasons in the SEC. Comments from the coaching staff have indicated Samuel is the heavy favorite to start as the X-receiver, which has typically been the go-to position in Shanahan’s offense. Samuel has also been an early standout in OTAs and drawn praise from his quarterback. “Deebo, he’s had a couple, yesterday especially, that after the catch he’s just so explosive and fast,” Jimmy Garoppolo noted after a recent practice. Expect Samuel to rack up some easy catches with the 49ers trying to give him as many chances as possible to make a big play with his run after the catch ability.
Chad Parsons
Opportunity rules in the short term for wide receivers, and Marquise Brown has the most wide-open depth chart of the bunch. The risks are high with Lamar Jackson's development a question as well as a foot injury/recovery for the diminutive Brown, but the upside combination of the two is for a fantasy starter season result - at least on a per-game basis - from the pairing in 2019.
Andy Hicks
Wide Receiver is always the hardest position to project immediate success for. Last year the top three wide receivers drafted finished as the top three rookie receivers. In 2017 the fifth and sixth guy drafted stood atop the fantasy rookie finishers. The year before that it was the sixth and 16th guy drafted that were dominant. I could go on and on with this, but ultimately the team that can pass the ball and drafts a rookie who will see playing time is where we need to look.
That brings us to New England, Kansas City and Indianapolis being the better destinations for rookies. They all have excellent quarterbacks and other offensive players who will allow a star rookie to breathe as they find their feet in the NFL. Good luck investing in a Baltimore, Tennessee or 49ers rookie receiver and expecting instant results. 16 wide receivers were drafted in the first four rounds and I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of them as the leading rookie receiver for 2019. If I have to pick one to be the guy, I agree with Phil in that it will be Parris Campbell in Indianapolis. The Colts need a number two and future number one and he looks like the right man at the right time.
Justin Howe
The easy answer here is NKeal Harry, considering his situation and talent level. But I'll go on a limb and call Mecole Hardman the crown jewel of this shaky rookie bunch. Hardman is plenty raw and was not a top-10 wideout prospect in my eyes, but that might not matter. The situation he'll be in if Tyreek Hill sits isn't one that requires much technical ability; it's not as though he'd be replacing DeAndre Hopkins here. Rather, he'd be utilized on the clear-out routes that Hill and Patrick Mahomes II excelled on. Even with just 80 targets, he'd have a clear path to a 50-750-8 type of line. That's not easy to project for most of these rookies, even the more talented ones.
In PPR leagues, though, I'll nudge Harry above him. The Patriots' track record with scouting wideouts is Awful (capitalization intended), but Harry is my favorite high-round guy they've taken in a couple of decades. He's versatile enough to move across the field and win the pick routes they love. And if the semi-brittle Edelman misses time, I think Harry shifts primarily into the slot and draws 5-7 targets a game. In this efficient offense, that would be a pace around 60-70 catches and great week-to-week touchdown opportunity.