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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
WEEK #17--TAKE ADVANTAGE: The last week of the regular season in DFS presents an array of potential pitfalls for the average fan, which creates quite a bit of opportunity for the tuned-in DFS player. Understanding a team's collective motivation entering Week #17 is imperative to arrive at accurate projections based on playing time. For example, teams like the Ravens, Vikings, and Texans could rest their starters for the bulk of their respective games on Sunday because they have no room for improvement in the playoff picture; thus, resting key players offers virtually all upside and no downside for those teams. If an uninformed DFS player decides to roster DeAndre Hopkins against a depleted Titans secondary, he could very well regret it if/when the Texans *announce Hopkins as inactive late Sunday afternoon (*Note: As of Saturday afternoon, Hopkins has not been announced as inactive--this is merely speculation on my part). With that in mind, it is important to understand how I have arrived at the player recommendations in the Picks section below--the following assumptions were taken into account (and should be confirmed on Sunday morning to ensure alignment):
- The Texans, Ravens, Bills, and Vikings are all likely to rest their starters for the bulk of Sunday's game(s).
- The Packers, Saints, Patriots, Eagles, Cowboys, and Titans are incentivized to play their best players to ensure optimal playoff situations.
- Both Leonard Fournette and Kyler Murray will not play due to injuries.
- Since the above was originally written, Fournette has since acknowledged that he will be inactive.
2019 FORMAT:
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Carson Wentz | @NYG | $6,100 | 9% | - | «««« | Goedert exposure & NYG DBs driving Wentz' position here. |
Philip Rivers | @KC | $5,400 | 1% | - | ««« | Implied gamescript and/or KC pulling starters = upside. |
Sam Darnold | @BUF | $5,000 | 1% | - | ««« | Suspect that Buffalo starters play limitedly, if at all. |
Baker Mayfield | @CIN | $5,700 | 4% | - | «« | Despite rotten season, cannot ignore him vs. CIN. |
Aaron Rodgers | @DET | $6,900 | 4% | - | «« | Packers are incentivized to win for 1st seed in NFC. |
Daniel Jones | PHL | $6,400 | 2% | - | «« | Philly missing key pieces in secondary. Spoiler role |
Matt Ryan | @TB | $6,500 | 8% | - | «« | Cannot ignore vs. TB's pass-funnel defense in shootout. |
Jared Goff | ARZ | $6,200 | 5% | - | «« | ARZ: 27th DVOA vs. pass. Upgrade if Gurley sits. |
Brett Hundley | @LAR | $4,500 | 2% | - | «« | Rams missing 2 starting DBs. Plus gamescript & price. |
Jameis Winston | ATL | $6,600 | 10% | - | « | Price of his receivers is creeping too high. Short fade. |
Dak Prescott | WAS | $6,300 | 11% | Yes | « | May not need to test injured shoulder vs. Redskins. |
A.J. McCarron | TEN | $5,000 | 1% | - | « | If Deshaun Watson sits, grab a few low-dollar stacks. |
Tom Brady | MIA | $6,000 | 8% | Yes | « | 24.7 DK points in previous contest vs. Dolphins. |
Drew Brees | @CAR | $7,000 | 5% | - | « | Saints may rely on Kamara to beat poor rush defense. |
Patrick Mahomes II | LAC | $7,200 | 7% | - | « | If Pats get up early, Mahomes could get pulled in 2H. |
Mitchell Trubisky | @MIN | $5,700 | 1% | - | « | Sneaky. Could get action vs. backup DBs at Minny. |
Ryan Tannehill | @HOU | $6,800 | 5% | - | « | Salary is deterring, but matchup & incentive are there. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: Atop the Vegas Value Chart for this final week of the regular season sits five consecutive double-digit favorite teams. Why is that important? Well, typically we like to target quarterbacks for cash games with high implied team totals; however, that notion is confounded when we consider that big Vegas favorites also typically take air out of the offense when they build bigger leads. A Catch-22, if you will. With that caveat in mind, both Dak Prescott and Tom Brady are optimal cash game quarterback options this week due to their reasonable salaries, plush matchups against soft secondaries, and overall need to win for playoff implications. Brady gets a return matchup at home against the Dolphins, who allowed him to collect nearly 25 DK points earlier this season in Miami. Likewise, Dak accrued just shy of 30 DK points when Dallas last faced Washington earlier this season, when their defensive backfield was much healthier than it will be on Sunday.
GPP: The New York Giants have allowed 8 consecutive quarterbacks to throw for 230 passing yards or more and are allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to the position, including 31% more production over the previous 5 weeks than league-adjusted defenses. Since releasing Janoris Jenkins 2 weeks ago, the Giants have allowed nearly 600 passing yards to the combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dwayne Haskins, and Case Keenum. This collectively creates intrigue around Carson Wentz in a must-win game for the Eagles. Wentz' receivers are inexpensive, which affords the ability to spend up at other positions and they could surprisingly go underowned (save Dallas Goedert) despite these facts. The case for Wentz is bolstered by the fact that the Giants have posted 77 points over the past 2 weeks, which could keep pressure on Wentz to throw for 4 full quarters. Elsewhere, there are a half-dozen (or more) quarterbacks who will be underowned due to the large number of games on this main slate. Of those options, do not sleep on Sam Darnold against an otherwise strong Bills defense that should be resting starters, as well as Philip Rivers who finds himself in a similar situation with a plus implied gamescript.
RUNNING BACKS
Alvin Kamara | @CAR | $7,800 | 19% | Yes | «««« | Carolina 'reverse-funnel' defense poses no threat. |
LeVeon Bell | @BUF | $5,800 | 11% | Yes | «««« | Multiple angles suggest big day for Bell vs. Bills. |
DeAndre Washington | @DEN | $5,200 | 13% | - | «««« | Underpriced for 2nd straight week in run-first offense. |
Damien Williams | LAC | $4,700 | 11% | - | ««« | Limited options in KC backfield could force more usage. |
Ezekiel Elliott | WAS | $8,000 | 25% | Yes | ««« | Smash spot vs. WAS. Squeaky wheel narrative to boot. |
Joe Mixon | CLE | $7,200 | 3% | - | ««« | Illness last week is affecting ownership vs. Browns. |
Adrian Peterson | @DAL | $4,900 | 5% | - | ««« | 18 touches/game and all redzone action w/out Guice. |
Melvin Gordon | @KC | $6,000 | 8% | - | «« | KC: 30th-ranked DVOA rush defense. 2 TDs last week. |
Ryquell Armstead | IND | $4,400 | 8% | - | «« | If Fournette sits, Armstead becomes a top-end DFS play. |
Austin Ekeler | @KC | $6,200 | 4% | - | «« | Full PPR scoring keeps him relevant as LAC #2 receiver. |
Ronald Jones II | ATL | $4,900 | 4% | - | «« | Will go overlooked due to focus on Bucs' passing game. |
Christian McCaffrey | NO | $10,000 | 21% | Yes | «« | 15 catches in Grier's debut. Similar usage this week? |
Phillip Lindsay | OAK | $6,100 | 7% | - | «« | Short home fave should be involved throughout here. |
Aaron Jones | @DET | $8,200 | 23% | - | « | 5 TDs over previous 3 games. Negative regression soon? |
Mike Boone | CHI | $5,300 | 2% | - | « | Expect Mattison to sit again. Could see 16-20 touches. |
Sony Michel | MIA | $4,900 | 8% | - | « | 16-point home fave = perfect gamescript for Michel. |
Marlon Mack | @JAX | $6,900 | 3% | - | « | Jags have been horrid vs. run. No Jordan Wilkins helps. |
Miles Sanders | @NYG | $6,800 | 7% | - | « | Fading due to higher Wentz exposure. Howard returns. |
Saquon Barkley | PHL | $8,700 | 5% | - | « | Unstoppable past 2 weeks, but PHL is tough vs. run. |
Nick Chubb | @CIN | $7,500 | 9% | - | « | Soft spot as short fave vs. 28th DVOA rush defense. |
Devonta Freeman | @TB | $6,500 | 9% | - | « | Price is raised and matchup tougher after big Week #16. |
Derrick Henry | @HOU | $8,100 | 4% | - | « | If Texans rest starters, bump Henry as Titans need win. |
David Montgomery | @MIN | $5,100 | 1% | - | « | Usage depends on gamescript: best if MIN rests starters. |
Kenyan Drake | @LAR | $7,100 | 5% | - | « | Tough to justify w/Hundley under center. Small piece. |
Todd Gurley | ARZ | $6,600 | 5% | - | « | Could sit or be limited. Fading…maybe entirely. |
RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:
CASH: After taking extensive criticism about feeding Ezekiel Elliott only 13 times in last week's loss to the Eagles, one has to believe that Jason Garrett will learn a valuable lesson and give Elliott the ball throughout this Sunday's game as a heavy home favorite against the Redskins. Over their previous 3 contests, the Redskins have yielded over 600 all-purpose yards to Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, and Miles Sanders; if Elliott is handled appropriately, he should have no problem exceeding 120 all-purpose yards with a score (or two). Similarly inept in defending the run, the Carolina Panthers have yielded a whopping nine rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs over the past month, which supports another big week for Alvin Kamara, who is coming off a strong two-touchdown game against the Titans last week. In the AFC East, LeVeon Bell jumps off the page as a strong cash game and GPP selection against the Bills, whose reverse-funnel defense represents a plus spot for Bell before we consider that Sean McDermott is considering rest key players on his squad. Lastly, CMC merits consideration (again) if you can wrangle his lofty salary.
GPP: On the heels of being nearly 40% owned across the industry and delivering GPP value for those stakeholders, DeAndre Washington is largely forgotten (~ 13%) this week against the Broncos. Lest we forget that the Raiders are a run-first offense and that Washington logged 25 touches in his previous start; the matchup is average against Denver's 18th-ranked DVOA rush defense, but my metrics suggest that Washington is going overlooked relative to his potential upside in this contest and therefore merits higher consideration than current ownership levels. In Cincinnati, Joe Mixon is another head-scratcher, this time at only 3% ownership, against the visiting Browns. Mixon disappointed the masses last week at peak ownership, but Sunday morning Twitter reports stated that he was dealing with a severe illness and could be limited, so it was not surprising to see him have a pedestrian day against the Dolphins. This week, however, he is 100% and faces Cleveland, who just allowed Kenyan Drake to rush for four touchdowns only two weeks ago. Mixon has been routinely logging 22-26 touches every week, which could result in a monster day at home to close out the season. Lastly, give Ronald Jones II a second look this week as a leverage play away from the Buccaneers passing game that will be popular with the masses; Jones is coming off a week where he looked to be Bruce Arians' RB1 and faces a Falcons' defensive front that is far from imposing at only 4% ownership.
WIDE RECEIVERS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Greg Ward | @NYG | $4,700 | 9% | Yes | «««« | Skill be damned. Volume-, matchup-, price-driven rating. |
Danny Amendola | GB | $4,500 | 3% | Yes | «««« | People continue to ignore him in Blough's offense. Why? |
Allen Lazard | @DET | $4,000 | 1% | - | «««« | Adams + Jones = 40% exposure. Take Lazard at 1% in GPPs. |
Jarvis Landry | @CIN | $5,900 | 16% | Yes | «««« | Banking on Beckham being limited or inactive. |
Kelvin Harmon | @DAL | $3,900 | 1% | - | ««« | Too low-owned for implied gamescript and no McLaurin. |
Hunter Renfrow | @DEN | $4,500 | 1% | - | ««« | 100+ yards in return. Avoids Harris in coverage. |
Vincynt Smith | @BUF | $3,200 | 1% | - | ««« | Contrarian. Getting ignored in GPPs despite involvement. |
Jamison Crowder | @BUF | $5,100 | 3% | - | ««« | Lower ranking if Buffalo surprises and plays starters. |
Christian Kirk | @LAR | $4,700 | 7% | - | ««« | Rams missing 2 starting DBs. Implied gamescript helps. |
Keenan Allen | @KC | $6,100 | 10% | - | ««« | Tackled on half-yard line last week = stagnant salary. |
Michael Gallup | WAS | $5,400 | 10% | - | ««« | Preferred Dallas receiver due to price and recent usage. |
Kenny Stills | TEN | $4,600 | 1% | - | ««« | Possible WR1 role if Texans sit starters. Take note. |
Julio Jones | @TB | $8,500 | 15% | Yes | ««« | Smash spot vs. TB. Surprised ownership isn't higher. |
Mohamed Sanu | MIA | $4,100 | 6% | - | ««« | Easiest matchup all season. Must-win game for Pats. |
Tyler Boyd | CLE | $6,700 | 3% | - | ««« | Avoids Browns' better cornerbacks from slot. |
Russell Gage | @TB | $4,400 | 6% | - | «« | Leverage away from Julio Jones' ownership. Salary-saver. |
Allen Robinson | @MIN | $7,200 | 2% | - | «« | 2-TD upside at 2% ownership = stellar GPP option. |
D.J. Chark | IND | $5,800 | 2% | - | «« | Motivated to finish above 1,000 yards receiving. |
Keke Coutee | TEN | $3,300 | 1% | - | «« | Dump-off option for McCarron if Texans rest starters. |
Steven Sims | @DAL | $4,700 | 4% | - | «« | Keenum loves slot WRs: 32% of targets last week. |
Robert Woods | ARZ | $7,000 | 7% | - | «« | TD-regression? 1K-yard WR has only 1 TD on the season. |
Golden Tate | PHL | $5,100 | 2% | - | «« | Eagles do not match up well vs. his skillset. |
Sammy Watkins | LAC | $4,500 | 2% | - | «« | Avoids Hayward from the slot. Fair price & ownership. |
Justin Watson | ATL | $4,900 | 12% | - | «« | Week #16 darling may be overowned by Sunday lineup lock. |
Amari Cooper | WAS | $6,500 | 8% | - | «« | Skins missing many DBs for this contest. Cannot ignore. |
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | @NYG | $3,700 | 1% | - | «« | All the attention on Ward, but none on 2nd-round pick? |
Michael Thomas | @CAR | $9,900 | 16% | - | « | Path to beat Carolina is via ground game. Slight fade. |
Davante Adams | @DET | $8,000 | 18% | - | « | Hate to go underweight. Counting on Slay to limit him. |
Julian Edelman | MIA | $7,300 | 11% | - | « | Snaps & targets are down of late due to injury. |
Larry Fitzgerald | @LAR | $4,500 | 8% | - | « | Will challenge the Rams' backup DBs. Plus gamescript. |
Sterling Shepard | PHL | $6,200 | 2% | - | « | Ownership does not reflect recent performance. GPP-only. |
Mike Williams | @KC | $5,000 | 2% | - | « | Price has crept a bit too far, but will have a small %. |
Courtland Sutton | OAK | $6,400 | 10% | - | « | Slow-paced game could limit upside, but cannot ignore. |
Tyreek Hill | LAC | $7,700 | 7% | - | « | Could be pulled early if Pats jump to lead vs. Miami. |
Cooper Kupp | ARZ | $6,800 | 7% | - | « | Scored in every game since Thanksgiving. |
A.J. Brown | @HOU | $7,000 | 10% | - | « | Price hurts, but outclasses Texans defensive backs. |
Breshad Perriman | ATL | $6,700 | 10% | - | « | Fade. Has 2x 100-yard games in 4 years in league. |
Odell Beckham | @CIN | $5,700 | 10% | - | « | Great matchup, but injury & illness screams to avoid. |
Anthony Miller | @MIN | $5,800 | 2% | - | « | Was red-hot before Bears floundered in KC last week. |
Albert Wilson | @NE | $4,200 | 2% | - | « | Pats will focus on Parker, which should help Wilson. |
Kenny Golladay | GB | $6,300 | 3% | - | « | Scored in 3 of Blough's 4 starts = tough to maintain. |
Corey Davis | @HOU | $4,000 | 3% | - | « | Makes the cut if Texans rest starters. Price is right. |
James Washington | @BAL | $4,600 | 1% | - | « | Limited exposure, but Ravens should be resting starters. |
Zach Pascal | @JAX | $4,800 | 2% | - | « | Prefer him over T.Y. due to price and injury status. |
Darius Slayton | PHL | $4,900 | 3% | - | « | Throttled this same defense for 5/154/2 in Week #14. |
Brandin Cooks | ARZ | $4,400 | 3% | - | « | Recent uptick in usage is intriguing. Limited exposure. |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | @BAL | $5,500 | 1% | - | « | If Ravens lay down, JuJu at 1% could be a mistake. |
Diontae Johnson | @BAL | $4,800 | 2% | - | « | See notes on James Washington, above. |
WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:
CASH: Outside of Julio Jones, the recommendation is to spend down at the wide receiver position for cash games this weekend. At $8.5K, Jones is the exception and should be one of the first slots filled in your rosters due to his post-Calvin Ridley involvement in the Falcons offense (17.5 targets per game) and plum matchup against the Buccaneers' sieve of a secondary. After Jones, it makes sense to save salary and roll with some combination of Greg Ward and/or Danny Amendola, both of whom have been essential cogs in their respective offenses over the past several weeks. Ward will continue to play the WR1 role for the Eagles after extensive injuries to key receivers placed him in the spotlight several weeks ago; since then, Ward has delivered modest success in that capacity and should continue to do so against a beleaguered Giants secondary on Sunday. Meanwhile, Amendola is a receiver DFS players hate to roster, but we cannot ignore his involvement since David Blough took over in Week #13; since then, Amendola has been targeted more often than Kenny Golladay, caught one less pass, and is offered at a 20% discount.
GPP: If you are running out a chalk-riddled lineup with the likes of Jameis Winston, Breshad Perriman, and Dallas Goedert, you will need to intentionally build in some uniqueness to that same lineup to render it competitive against the masses. One way to do that at the wide receiver position is to click on Allen Lazard's name, who is poised to go underowned in a game where Davante Adams will contend with shadow coverage from Darius Slay for most of the afternoon. Adams will still log fantasy production, but it comes at literally double the cost from Lazard and nearly 20x the ownership; rolling with Lazard reduces risk associated with Slay's coverage, builds roster uniqueness, and offers leverage away from those Adams owners. In the Battle of Ohio, Jarvis Landry stands out as a touchdown-regression candidate (0 scores in previous 34 targets) against a Bengals defense that allowed three different Dolphins receivers to hit GPP value last weekend. Landry is off the Browns injury report, while Odell Beckham could feasibly miss the game entirely due to lingering injuries and an ongoing illness. Lastly, while Ezekiel Elliott looks primed to deliver against the Redskins, be sure to gain some exposure to the Cowboys receivers against the Redskins, who will be starting a rag-tag team of defensive backs at the season closes; both Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup could easily best the 'Skins cornerbacks in this must-win game in Big D if Kellen Moore calls plays accordingly.
TIGHT ENDS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Dallas Goedert | @NYG | $4,900 | 19% | Yes | «««« | Should be focal point of Birds' passing game w/out Ertz. |
Hunter Henry | @KC | $4,500 | 5% | - | ««« | Leverage from massive Goedert ownership @ similar price. |
Tyler Higbee | ARZ | $5,600 | 4% | - | ««« | Paying up to be contrarian. 4-straight 100+ yard games. |
Darren Waller | @DEN | $5,400 | 11% | - | «« | Renfrow's return proved detrimental in last. |
Jonnu Smith | @HOU | $4,200 | 1% | - | «« | Contrarian GPP option. Recent rapport w/Tannehill. |
Tyler Eifert | CLE | $3,400 | 1% | - | «« | Usage trending upwards. Small piece for differentiation. |
Kaden Smith | PHL | $3,700 | 2% | - | «« | Two scores in Jones' return last week = upside. |
Travis Kelce | LAC | $7,000 | 10% | - | «« | Could get lost in Goedert madness. Get at least 7-10%. |
Jack Doyle | @JAX | $4,100 | 9% | - | « | Crowd fave, but 3 or less catches in 6 of last 7 games. |
Jared Cook | @CAR | $5,200 | 5% | - | « | Salary-saving stack option for Brees. Leverage play. |
Austin Hooper | @TB | $5,800 | 8% | - | « | Needs to score to achieve 4x value on this salary. |
Cameron Brate | ATL | $3,200 | 9% | - | « | Injuries to Evans/Godwin = more targets for Brate. |
Noah Fant | OAK | $3,600 | 7% | « | Soft spot versus TE-susceptible defense. | |
O.J. Howard | ATL | $4,300 | 13% | « | Ownership does not reflect likelihood of achieving 4x. |
TIGHT END TIDBITS:
CASH: With seven different tight ends surpassing the $5K mark on the salary scale, Dallas Goedert is the choice option for cash games at $4.9K. On Friday afternoon, Zach Ertz was announced as 'out' with a broken rib and a bum back. Meanwhile, Nelson Agholor, Alshon Jeffery, and DeSean Jackson will all miss Sunday's game versus the Giants, which bodes well for Goedert's implied usage in a must-win game that dictates the Eagles' playoff eligibility. Bolstering the case for Goedert's fantasy prospects, Carson Wentz has targeted the tight end position 66 times (16.5 targets per game) over the past month. As the fantasy community catches wind of these numbers, Goedert's ownership in tournament formats will likely surpass 30% by Sunday morning with over double that number for cash games--despite that level of ownership, he should be locked in as your cash game tight end. Beat your opponent(s) elsewhere.
GPP: Beyond the aforementioned Goedert, there is not a lot to like at the tight end position for tournaments because of how DraftKings buoyed the salaries for Week #17. It will be difficult to justify paying above $5K for a tight end because none of them will bring higher upside that Goedert, yet they will require more investment. If you do decide to pay more than $4.9K for a tight end, consider either Tyler Higbee or Travis Kelce first. Higbee is entering this week's game with 4 consecutive 100+ yard performances and faces the league's friendliest defense to his position. Kelce matches up against the Chargers, who he tagged for a 7/92/1 stat line just over a month ago; Kelce is a bit riskier, however, because there is a chance that Andy Reid could pull his starters during this game if the Patriots jump to a big lead over Miami early in their game, as the Chiefs can only benefit if the Patriots were to lose as 16-point chalk at home. In that same game, do not ignore Hunter Henry against the Chiefs; he offers leverage away from the Goedert owners at a similar price point and could be instrumental in delivering GPP upside if he scores and Goedert underdelivers at 30+% ownership.
TEAM DEFENSES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Packers | @DET | $3,000 | 15% | Yes | «««« | Lions' Blough is legitimizing lesser defenses than GB. |
Bears | @MIN | $2,100 | 8% | - | «««« | If Sean Mannion is under center, Bears are a steal. |
Vikings | CHI | $2,900 | 8% | - | ««« | Trubisky is hit-or-miss. Proceed accordingly. |
Jets | @BUF | $2,700 | 8% | - | ««« | Bills should rest starters. Enter Matt Barkley. |
Patriots | MIA | $4,300 | 7% | Yes | ««« | Class defense of the slate. Price is prohibitive though. |
Rams | ARZ | $3,200 | 3% | - | «« | Brett Hundley did nothing in GB as starter. |
Saints | @CAR | $4,000 | 4% | - | «« | Indy's defense scored 30 FPs vs. Carolina last week. |
Cowboys | WAS | $3,300 | 4% | - | «« | Dallas is capable of shutting out Keenum & company. |
Steelers | @BAL | $3,000 | 4% | - | «« | Solid defense should get mostly backup offense in BAL. |
Broncos | OAK | $3,300 | 2% | - | «« | Mediocre Oakland offense is nothing to avoid. |
Titans | @HOU | $2,800 | 3% | - | « | Assuming A.J. McCarron starts, go over the field. |
Colts | @JAX | $3,200 | 4% | - | « | Hobbled Chark and no Fournette = upside for Colts. |
Chiefs | LAC | $3,700 | 2% | - | « | Minor exposure due to upside and low ownership. |
TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:
CASH: If salary is not limiting, feel free to spend up at the team defense position this week and roll with the Patriots at home against the lowly Dolphins. As nearly 17-point favorites with double-digit fantasy production in two-thirds (10 games) of their contests this season, the Pats look primed to deliver a solid fantasy floor against a Dolphins offense that has been producing against far lesser defenses of late (Cincinnati, NY Giants, NY Jets, etc.). We can expect the Pats' shadow-based coverage to minimize DeVante Parker and his ancillary receivers, which leaves Patrick Laird to run the ball against New England, neither of which poses any threat. If you do not have the $4.3K required to roster the Patriots, feel free to save 30% and lock in the Packers against David Blough in the Motor City. Needing a Sunday Night loss from San Francisco to absorb the number-one seed in the NFC playoffs, the Pack will be fully incentivized to deliver fantasy production in Detroit on Sunday afternoon. Since becoming the Lions' starting quarterback in Week #13, Blough has not led the Lions offense to score more than 20 points; he has thrown only four touchdowns versus five interceptions and opposing defenses are averaging 9.5 fantasy points per game over that span.
GPP: With the likelihood that we see multiple backup quarterbacks running offenses with tertiary skill players, there are quite a few team defenses worthy of GPP consideration this week. At the top of the list is the Bears defense against Sean Mannion, who would likely be without Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Alexander Mattison; for his part, Mannion has played limitedly in five seasons in the league, but still has not thrown a single touchdown at this level. In Buffalo, the Jets find themselves in a similar situation to the Bears in that they could be facing a Matt Barkley-led offense playing some combination of Isaiah McKenzie, Robert Foster, and T.J. Yeldon; the Jets already boast a solid defense, but playing against that level of competition could yield fantasy upside that others have not fully appreciated, as evidenced by their sub-10% ownership. Lastly, both the Rams and Steelers will likely face backup quarterbacks in their respective matchups and have the requisite talent on their respective defenses to deliver GPP upside.