For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
2019 FORMAT:
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS |
Gardner Minshew | @OAK | $5,500 | 2% | - | «««« |
Philip Rivers | MIN | $5,600 | 2% | - | «««« |
Jared Goff | @DAL | $6,100 | 5% | - | ««« |
Kyle Allen | SEA | $5,400 | 2% | - | ««« |
Aaron Rodgers | CHI | $6,300 | 1% | - | ««« |
Eli Manning | MIA | $5,200 | 5% | - | «« |
Jimmy Garoppolo | ATL | $6,100 | 4% | - | «« |
Patrick Mahomes II | DEN | $7,100 | 9% | - | «« |
Kyler Murray | CLE | $5,600 | 9% | Yes | «« |
Jameis Winston | @DET | $6,900 | 7% | - | « |
Deshaun Watson | @TEN | $6,800 | 8% | - | « |
Dak Prescott | LAR | $6,300 | 9% | Yes | « |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | @NYG | $6,200 | 4% | - | « |
Tom Brady | @CIN | $6,000 | 4% | - | « |
David Blough | TB | $5,300 | 2% | - | « |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: Of the quarterbacks on the main slate, Kyler Murray is my model's most likely quarterback to achieve cash (and GPP) value this week. Murray has been nursing a hamstring issue of late and his output has reflected it, posting only 27 fantasy points over his previous pair of games; those games came against better defenses (Steelers & Rams) than he will face in the form of the Browns on Sunday, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects in a game that where we should see plentiful scoring from both teams. An alternative to Murray is to spend another $700 to get to Dak Prescott against the Rams in a game that oddsmakers are projecting to score more than 50 points. Losers of three straight and four of their previous five games, the Cowboys find themselves in 'must-win' territory against the visiting Rams. In spite of their dying quest to win the NFC East, the Cowboys have bolstered Precott's fantasy relevance this season, as he has scored < 3x value on his $6.3K salary in all-but-two games in 2019.
GPP: Gardner Minshew did not jump off the page when I started crunching numbers at the beginning of the week, but both Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley are affordably priced and look to be in good spots to deliver 4x on their respective salaries against Oakland. The result is that Minshew should be higher-owned, but he is likely to appear on less than 4% of rosters despite both Westbrook's and Conley's strong statistical promise. Feel free to grab about 3-4x the field on Minshew, stack him up with either Westbrook or Conley, and run them back with either Josh Jacobs or Darren Waller for the complete game stack. Coming off strong back-to-back games against the Cardinals and Seahawks, Jared Goff is an intriguing GPP candidate against the Cowboys in a game that Las Vegas projects to score over 50 points. Rostering Goff in a stack with your favorite Rams receiver also brings leverage against Todd Gurley, who is poised to be the third highest-owned running back on the Week #15 slate.
RUNNING BACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS |
Patrick Laird | @NYG | $4,500 | 22% | Yes | «««« |
Phillip Lindsay | @KC | $5,600 | 6% | - | «««« |
Melvin Gordon | MIN | $6,500 | 4% | - | «««« |
Christian McCaffrey | SEA | $10,000 | 21% | Yes | ««« |
Todd Gurley | @DAL | $6,000 | 20% | Yes | ««« |
Chris Carson | @CAR | $7,500 | 22% | Yes | ««« |
Derrick Henry | HOU | $8,500 | 9% | - | ««« |
Josh Jacobs | JAX | $7,000 | 3% | - | ««« |
Austin Ekeler | MIN | $6,700 | 2% | - | «« |
Adrian Peterson | PHL | $4,400 | 2% | - | «« |
James White | @CIN | $5,400 | 11% | - | «« |
Leonard Fournette | @OAK | $7,600 | 17% | - | «« |
David Montgomery | @GB | $5,500 | 1% | - | «« |
Damien Williams | DEN | $4,800 | 1% | - | «« |
Raheem Mostert | ATL | $5,200 | 8% | - | «« |
Aaron Jones | CHI | $7,300 | 4% | - | «« |
Nick Chubb | @ARZ | $7,900 | 5% | - | « |
Saquon Barkley | MIA | $7,700 | 28% | - | « |
Devonta Freeman | @SF | $5,800 | 4% | - | « |
Ezekiel Elliott | LAR | $7,800 | 11% | - | « |
Jamaal Williams | CHI | $4,200 | 3% | - | « |
Chris Thompson | PHL | $3,900 | 1% | - | « |
Joe Mixon | NE | $6,100 | 3% | « | |
Miles Sanders | @WAS | $5,900 | 9% | « | |
Sony Michel | @CIN | $5,100 | 1% | « | |
Dalvin Cook | @LAC | $8,900 | 8% | « |
RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:
CASH: The bulk of cash game lineups on DraftKings this week will have both running backs playing against one another in Charlotte: Christian McCaffrey and Chris Carson. McCaffrey is coming off a pair of scoreless games, but he continues to collect fantasy production because of Kyle Allen's tendency to dump short passes to the elusive running back; over the past month, CMC has collected 48 targets which is the most in the league for any position. Simply put, there is no better pairing of athleticism and opportunity to build around for your cash games. With Rashaad Penny (knee) now on injured reserve, Chris Carson should have the Seahawks' backfield to himself against the Panthers' reverse-funnel defense that has allowed 30+ points to opposing running backs for 3 consecutive weeks. As a value play, you could consider Patrick Laird at only $4.5K against the Giants, who released their best defensive player, Janoris Jenkins, due to a social media incident earlier this week. For his part, Laird is coming off a 19-touch effort against the Jets' top-end rush defense that yielded 4 receptions and 86 all-purpose yards. This matchup should be easier sledding against the Giants, who allowed Boston Scott to score 24.8 DK points in the second half of Monday Night Football last week.
GPP: No team in the NFL allows more fantasy production to running backs than the Kansas City Chiefs, which bolsters the argument for rostering Phillip Lindsay despite a negative implied gamescript. Lindsay has taken a substantial lead in the Denver backfield over the past month, out-touching Royce Freeman 70 to 32 over that period of time. If Lindsay continues to garner 16+ touches, he looks primed to deliver 4x value on his sub-$6K salary at only 6% ownership. A similar argument could be made for Melvin Gordon against the Vikings, who have displayed an inability to stop the rush in recent weeks, as evidenced by the 200+ rushing yard game they allowed to the Seahawks just two weeks ago. Gordon is averaging over 20 touches per game over the Chargers previous 5 efforts and has 14 redzone opportunities to Austin Ekeler's 5 over that span of time. As a deep GPP flyer, rolling with Josh Jacobs against the Jags makes a lot of season, as Jacksonville has allowed 47% more production to the position over the past 5 weeks than league-adjusted opponents; that same span of 5 games saw 8 different running backs score 18 or more fantasy points, which has Jacksonville as the 4th-friendliest defense to running backs in the NFL this season.
WIDE RECEIVERS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS |
Dede Westbrook | @OAK | $4,600 | 8% | Yes | «««« |
Keenan Allen | MIN | $6,300 | 8% | Yes | «««« |
Chris Conley | @OAK | $3,600 | 11% | - | «««« |
Courtland Sutton | @KC | $5,900 | 9% | Yes | «««« |
Davante Adams | CHI | $7,600 | 6% | - | «««« |
D.J. Moore | SEA | $6,600 | 10% | Yes | ««« |
Julio Jones | @SF | $7,000 | 7% | - | ««« |
Christian Kirk | CLE | $5,500 | 14% | - | ««« |
Michael Gallup | LAR | $5,700 | 9% | - | ««« |
Darius Slayton | MIA | $4,700 | 9% | Yes | ««« |
Robert Woods | @DAL | $6,200 | 10% | - | ««« |
Greg Ward | @WAS | $3,000 | 1% | Yes | ««« |
Tyreek Hill | DEN | $7,500 | 10% | - | ««« |
DeAndre Hopkins | @TEN | $8,000 | 20% | - | ««« |
Larry Fitzgerald | CLE | $4,300 | 9% | - | ««« |
Cooper Kupp | @DAL | $6,500 | 7% | - | ««« |
Emmanuel Sanders | ATL | $6,600 | 3% | - | ««« |
Mike Williams | MIN | $4,600 | 2% | - | «« |
Curtis Samuel | SEA | $4,400 | 4% | - | «« |
Chris Godwin | @DET | $7,700 | 19% | - | «« |
Sammy Watkins | DEN | $4,900 | 3% | - | «« |
Julian Edelman | @CIN | $7,100 | 14% | - | «« |
Terry McLaurin | PHL | $5,300 | 2% | - | «« |
Breshad Perriman | @DET | $4,500 | 2% | - | «« |
Alex Erickson | NE | $3,500 | 1% | - | «« |
Jakobi Meyers | @CIN | $3,300 | 1% | - | «« |
Jarvis Landry | @ARZ | $6,700 | 15% | - | «« |
Golden Tate | MIA | $5,900 | 3% | - | «« |
Tyrell Williams | JAX | $4,800 | 3% | - | «« |
Adam Thielen | @LAC | $6,300 | 4% | - | «« |
Allen Robinson | @GB | $6,800 | 2% | - | «« |
Odell Beckham | @ARZ | $6,400 | 9% | - | « |
Danny Amendola | TB | $4,100 | 10% | - | « |
Allen Hurns | @NYG | $4,700 | 4% | - | « |
DeVante Parker | @NYG | $6,400 | 8% | - | « |
Stefon Diggs | @LAC | $7,300 | 2% | - | « |
Will Fuller | @TEN | $5,600 | 2% | - | « |
Amari Cooper | LAR | $6,500 | 10% | - | « |
Deebo Samuel | ATL | $5,800 | 3% | - | « |
Sterling Shepard | MIA | $5,400 | 7% | - | « |
Kenny Golladay | TB | $7,200 | 8% | - | « |
A.J. Brown | HOU | $6,000 | 9% | - | « |
Kenny Stills | @TEN | $4,100 | 1% | - | « |
Allen Lazard | CHI | $3,800 | 1% | - | « |
Albert Wilson | @NYG | $3,500 | 1% | - | « |
Scott Miller | @DET | $3,000 | 1% | - | « |
Tyler Lockett | @CAR | $6,900 | 3% | - | « |
DK Metcalf | @CAR | $6,100 | 4% | - | « |
WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:
CASH: Cash games are about securing a high scoring floor and the best way to get there is through implied volume. Keenan Allen, Courtland Sutton, and D.J. Moore are all WR1's who are expected to tally double-digit targets in their respective matchups in Week #15. At a mid-price range, these players are all suited to provide the requisite 3x value you will need to justify their spots on your cash game lineups. Elsewhere, Dede Westbrook is interesting for both cash games and tournaments because of his implied volume with D.J. Chark sidelined, as well as his plus personnel matchup against the slow and undersized Lamarcus Joyner. Lastly, Greg Ward is a punt cash game option coming off a game that saw him establish a rapport with Carson Wentz to the tune of nine targets after Alshon Jeffery left the game with a season-ending injury. Ward has 19 targets over the Birds' previous 3 games and should see an uptick in usage with Jeffery sidelined and Nelson Agholor announced as out on Saturday.
GPP: Several weeks ago, Davante Adams' ownership was approaching 30%, but it will be only 4% on Sunday against the Bears. To be clear, Adams is presumably healthy and nothing has changed in Green Bay to substantiate an 8-fold drop in his ownership aside from the matchup. However, the Bears defensive backs do not pose any real coverage threat to Adams and he should certainly be on over 4% of tournament rosters considering he has been targeted 10+ times in 5 of his previous starts this season. In Dallas, Michael Gallup could bring some upside to your tournament rosters at only 6% ownership because Amari Cooper will likely get shadow treatment from Jalen Ramsey and Dak Prescott may just take the past of least resistance to Gallup, who has compiled double-digit targets in three of the Cowboys' previous five games. Lastly, throw a few shares of your tournament portfolio towards Julio Jones at a similar level of ownership to Amari Cooper. Julio has an 'on-paper' tough matchup against the Niners, but Richard Sherman is expected to miss this game, which means that Julio should have his way with the Niners' ancillary defensive backs. Expect to see Matt Ryan target Julio Jones throughout this matchup at a fair price, salary, and ownership.
TIGHT ENDS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS |
Tyler Higbee | @DAL | $3,900 | 11% | Yes | «««« |
Darren Waller | JAX | $5,500 | 12% | Yes | «««« |
George Kittle | ATL | $6,200 | 14% | - | ««« |
Hunter Henry | MIN | $5,200 | 4% | - | ««« |
Travis Kelce | DEN | $6,500 | 11% | - | ««« |
David Njoku | @ARZ | $4,200 | 2% | - | ««« |
Jacob Hollister | @CAR | $3,800 | 7% | - | «« |
Zach Ertz | @WAS | $6,000 | 12% | - | «« |
Austin Hooper | @SF | $5,000 | 3% | - | «« |
Dallas Goedert | @WAS | $4,300 | 3% | - | «« |
Mike Gesicki | @NYG | $4,000 | 5% | - | « |
Kaden Smith | MIA | $3,600 | 2% | - | « |
Ian Thomas | SEA | $3,100 | 8% | - | « |
O.J. Howard | @DET | $3,500 | 4% | - | « |
Noah Fant | @KC | $4,100 | 1% | - | « |
Anthony Firkser | HOU | $2,700 | 1% | « |
TIGHT END TIDBITS:
CASH: Since Gerald Everett's Week #12 injury that has given Tyler Higbee sole ownership of the tight end routes in Los Angeles, Higbee has posted back-to-back games with 7 receptions and 100+ receiving yards. On Sunday, Higbee gets a Cowboys defense that is allowing the 10th most points per game to his position and is fairly priced at only $3.9K. If salary is not limiting, Darren Waller tops the list yet again this week. Waller is putting together a career season and will benefit from an injury suffered by Foster Moreau, who has vultured five touchdowns from Waller to this point in the season. His matchup against the Jags, who have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends in their previous six games is attractive given his role as the primary receiver in his offense.
GPP: For tournament formats, I will be focusing heavily on those tight ends who bring two-touchdown upside to my rosters and paying the associated premium. George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Hunter Henry top the list; of the trio, Henry is particularly appealing due to his low implied ownership. Elsewhere, David Njoku is surprisingly projected to be on only 2% of rosters despite a plush matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who allow more fantasy production to tight ends than any team in the league. Njoku returned from injury last week to play 38% of snaps, but we should expect him to see a full bevy of snaps on Sunday and he will fill a redzone role that has been missing for the Browns for the bulk of the season.
TEAM DEFENSES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS |
Eagles | @WAS | $3,400 | 10% | Yes | «««« |
Packers | CHI | $3,000 | 8% | Yes | «««« |
Patriots | @CIN | $4,000 | 7% | - | ««« |
Buccaneers | @DET | $3,600 | 3% | - | ««« |
49ers | ATL | $3,800 | 5% | - | ««« |
Chiefs | DEN | $3,500 | 5% | - | «« |
Lions | TB | $2,300 | 9% | - | «« |
Seahawks | @CAR | $3,700 | 3% | - | «« |
Raiders | JAX | $3,200 | 3% | - | «« |
Browns | @ARZ | $3,300 | 3% | - | « |
Redskins | PHL | $2,600 | 3% | - | « |
Rams | @DAL | $2,900 | 2% | - | « |
Titans | HOU | $2,800 | 3% | - | « |
Cowboys | LAR | $2,800 | 1% | - | « |
TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:
CASH: Taking a defense against an underperforming quarterback is the recommendation for both cash games and tournaments in Week #15. The Eagles get Dwayne Haskins, who has thrown only three touchdowns versus seven interceptions in his four NFL starts. The Eagles are in a 'must-win' situation and control their own destiny in the NFC East; their path to victory in this matchup is via defense, as they will be without their best offensive lineman (Lane Johnson) and wide receiver (Alshon Jeffery), both of who were injured in Monday night's victory against the Giants. In Lambeau, the Packers will face off against Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears in a game slated to be played in temperatures below 20 degrees. Trubisky was on the verge of being benched earlier this season, but rebounded with some solid performances against some inferior defenses of late and it appears that the DFS community has forgotten just how bad Trubisky played for the first half of the season. His recent plus performances came against lesser defenses than he will face on Sunday, which makes the Packers intriguing for both cash games and tournament formats.
GPP: Since his first-half surprise blowup against the Bears on Thanksgiving, David Blough has thrown three interceptions versus only a single touchdown while absorbing six sacks over that time. Blough's tendency to wait for plays to develop before relinquishing the ball could lead to sack and turnover opportunities for the Buccaneers, a defense that we have not targeted for much of the season. That said, the Bucs have scored 16 and 23 DK points in 2 of their previous games, so the upside is demonstrated and could reappear against the Blough-led Lions. Fresh off a game where they allowed 46-points, much of the DFS community will be off the 49ers defense despite a plus matchup against the Falcons this weekend. The Niners have posted double-digit fantasy points in 8 of 14 games this season (57%) and could be a sneaky GPP selection against the Falcons, who will be without two of their better receivers from earlier in the season (Mohamed Sanu, traded; Calvin Ridley, injured).