For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
TIGHT SALARY WEEK: DraftKings has done a tremendous job of pricing players this week. The result is that only one player (as of the posting of this article) is projected to be rostered in > 20% of tournament lineups (Christian McCaffrey at 23%). Because ownership of players is fairly flat, it creates a tougher game for the more casual player, but a potential edge for those of you who are using Footballguys' projections and related material. For cash games, it will be a difficult build this week (although the recent announcement that Bilal Powell will start for the Jets certainly helps); for tournament lineup builds, there is a distinct edge to be garnered because you are not forced to polarize your ownership levels to such a degree that most weeks require (i.e., when a player is 35% owned in a plus matchup, you typically have to take a hard stance on such a player to differentiate yourself from the masses). With a more level distribution of players across tournament lineups, you can take moderate stances on players to mitigate risk or choose to go heavy on players to gain significant leverage on the field; the former method will lessen risk, but also upside, while the latter strategy will put many of your lineups at the top/bottom of the final standings. Best of luck with however you choose to attack it.
2019 FORMAT:
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Kyle Allen | @ATL | $5,700 | 2% | - | «««« | Here because his receivers are too cheap. Stack'em up. |
Jacoby Brissett | TB | $6,100 | 3% | - | ««« | TB's pass-funnel defense elevates floor/ceiling. |
Aaron Rodgers | WAS | $6,800 | 5% | - | ««« | Averaging 302 passing yards/game at Lambeau. |
Sam Darnold | MIA | $6,000 | 8% | - | ««« | Playing Miami has awaken many NFL QBs this season. |
Derek Carr | TEN | $5,000 | 5% | Yes | ««« | TEN: Missing both starting CBs. Price is right. |
Kirk Cousins | DET | $6,700 | 4% | - | «« | Leverage play against Dalvin's likely ownership. |
Deshaun Watson | DEN | $6,500 | 11% | Yes | «« | Injuries to Denver rush attack are hurting secondary. |
Andy Dalton | @CLE | $5,200 | 1% | - | «« | Counting on gamescript to deliver 4x value. |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | @NYJ | $6,000 | 4% | - | «« | Slaughtered a healthier Jets defense in Week #6. |
Patrick Mahomes II | @NE | $7,000 | 4% | - | «« | Mostly fading, but a few shares to get Tyreek Stacks. |
Tom Brady | KC | $6,100 | 5% | - | «« | Struggling with receiving corps of late. Lite exposure. |
Jameis Winston | @IND | $6,400 | 8% | - | « | 300+ yards in 8 of his previous 10 games. |
Lamar Jackson | @BUF | $7,400 | 9% | - | « | Running him 'naked' in GPPs. Poor receiver matchups. |
David Blough | @MIN | $5,200 | 1% | - | « | Giving him a chance due to gamescript & WR options. |
Drew Brees | SF | $5,900 | 3% | - | « | Will take the discount and future HOF'er at home. |
Matt Ryan | CAR | $6,600 | 8% | - | « | Julio and Hooper returning elevate his scoring floor. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: Our typical "go-to" quarterbacks for cash games, Patrick Mahomes II and Lamar Jackson, both have ominous matchups this week in the form of New England and Buffalo, respectively. Since both of those teams field top-5 DVOA pass defensive units, paying a premium for them in cash games is less than appealing. Two alternative options, at different price points, identified above include Deshaun Watson ($6.5K) and Derek Carr ($5.0K). Excluding the 41-7 drubbing the Texans took at the hands of Baltimore in Week #11, Watson has achieved 3x value on this week's salary every week since the beginning of October. Watson's matchup against Denver's capable defense is daunting, but Houston boasts the 4th-highest team total on the entire slate and Watson's numbers with a healthy Will Fuller, who will be 100% on Sunday, are dramatically better than without him. At a discounted price, Derek Carr should be a viable option for cash games against the Titans, who will be without both of their starting cornerbacks (Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler) in a game where the Raiders could be without Josh Jacobs (shoulder). Carr is also an intriguing GPP option with limited stacking partners in Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller.
GPP: As is sometimes the case, I can be surprised when a given player sits atop my list of GPP options after crunching numbers input into the tournament algorithm. This week, Kyle Allen, with eight turnovers over the past month, is a 4-star option against the Atlanta Falcons. Much of Allen's exposure is driven by the value that can be found in his receivers, all of whom are underpriced. Over the course of the season, only four teams have allowed more fantasy production to opposing quarterbacks than the Falcons, which bodes well for Allen's prospects at a $5.7K price point. Similarly priced, Jacoby Brissett is intriguing against Tampa Bay's pass-funnel defense on a week where he has multiple cheap receivers and a running back (Marlon Mack), who may not play or could be limited. In Lambeau, Aaron Rodgers will have no troubles slicing through the Redskins' 20th-ranked DVOA pass defense and his team's 27-point implied team total (2nd-highest on the slate) augments that stance. Lastly, do not sleep on Sam Darnold against the Dolphins on a week where Bilal Powell could feasibly end up on 40% of tournament rosters. While Powell and Darnold should not be considered mutually exclusive, rolling with Darnold in tournament formats could yield significant leverage over Powell-owners against a Dolphins defense that bleeds fantasy production via both the running and passing game.
RUNNING BACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Melvin Gordon | @JAX | $6,400 | 15% | - | «««« | JAX: Allowed 4x 100-yard rushers over past month. |
Alvin Kamara | SF | $7,000 | 17% | Yes | ««« | Priced $1K too low. Candidate for + scoring regression. |
Devonta Freeman | CAR | $5,400 | 15% | Yes | ««« | Heavy usage in Thanksgiving return. Beat CAR via rush. |
Phillip Lindsay | @HOU | $5,300 | 10% | Yes | ««« | Should be fed heavily to limit Lock's involvement. |
Nick Chubb | CIN | $8,000 | 11% | - | ««« | Scored 28 DK points in similar matchup vs. MIA. |
Dalvin Cook | DET | $9,500 | 12% | - | ««« | Only question is if Minny will limit action in blowout? |
Jamaal Williams | WAS | $4,800 | 9% | - | «« | Preferred option over AJones due to salary/usage. |
Mark Ingram | @BUF | $5,900 | 5% | - | «« | Way to beat Buffalo is on the ground. Good spot. |
James White | KC | $5,500 | 10% | - | «« | Effectively Brady's #2 receiver behind Edelman. |
Derrick Henry | @OAK | $8,200 | 11% | - | «« | Late-year heroics are apparent once again. |
Sony Michel | KC | $5,600 | 3% | - | «« | KC: 30th-ranked DVOA rush defense. 5.1 YPC allowed. |
Leonard Fournette | LAC | $7,800 | 15% | - | «« | 30 receptions in past month. Definition of bellcow. |
Joe Mixon | @CLE | $5,800 | 7% | - | «« | CLE missing Oliver/Garrett up front = improved outlook. |
Christian McCaffrey | @ATL | $10,300 | 23% | - | «« | 33.1 DK points vs. ATL in Week #11. Forget last week. |
Patrick Laird | @NYJ | $4,100 | 8% | Yes | « | Jets allow RBs to catch a lot of passes --> Laird's specialty. |
Bilal Powell | MIA | $3,500 | 1% | Yes | « | Will be chalk if LeVeon (illness) is inactive vs. Miami. |
Chris Thompson | @GB | $3,300 | 1% | - | « | Recent wins have limited usage of late. Plus gamescript. |
Jalen Richard | TEN | $3,900 | 1% | - | « | Assuming Jacobs = inactive, Richard gets PPR preference. |
Ronald Jones II | @IND | $4,400 | 3% | - | « | Benched early for missing block in last. GPP sleeper. |
Duke Johnson Jr | DEN | $3,900 | 3% | - | « | Increased usage of late. PPR scoring format helps cause. |
J.D. McKissic | @MIN | $3,600 | 1% | - | « | Gamescript-specific play. Scarbrough has zero targets. |
LeSean McCoy | @NE | $4,400 | 8% | - | « | Him or Darwin Thompson. I'm rolling with the veteran. |
Devin Singletary | BAL | $5,700 | 2% | « | Beginning to bear RB1 workload. Rough matchup. |
RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:
CASH: Bilal Powell is catching fire on Twitter as this article is updated. For cash games, he is basically a BINGO free square at only $3.5K against the Dolphins' 29th-ranked DVOA rush defense. Ty Montgomery might steal some looks, but Powell is an excellent receiver out of the backfield and should finish the game with 16+ touches at a low price point; he should likely be in at least half of your tournament lineups and all of your cash game lineups. Beyond Powell, you can probably justify Christian McCaffrey in cash games, but it's probably unnecessary this week because there are decent values at lower salaries including Alvin Kamara ($7.0K), Devonta Freeman ($5.4K), and Phillip Lindsay ($5.3K). Kamara is a matchup-proof option against the 49ers, whose defensive strength is their secondary moreso than their front seven (14th DVOA versus rush; 1st DVOA versus pass). Both Freeman and Lindsay are mid-priced options in plus matchups. Freeman gets Carolina's "run-funnel" defense that is allowing 39% more production to running backs than league-adjusted opponents since the beginning of November (worst in the NFL); Lindsay appears to have taken over primary running back duties in Denver and gets a J.J. Watt-less Texans defense that has allowed over 5.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs since his injury.
GPP: Melvin Gordon is trending up for good reason as we head into Sunday's contest against the Jaguars, who are allowing 30% more fantasy production to opposing running backs than league-adjusted opponents over the past 5 weeks. Over the past month, the Jags are allowing a league-high 6.1 yards per carry to running backs, which bodes well for MG3, who has 22 or more touches in 3 of the Chargers' 4 games. In Green Bay, Jamaal Williams is intriguing, despite a 50/50 split of touches with Aaron Jones, because he is priced at a $2K discount from Jones against the Redskins as a 12-point home favorite. Another big home favorite, the Texans will continue to roll out an aging Carlos Hyde and more athletic Duke Johnson Jr, the latter of whom has seen his snap counts raise over the past month at the expense of Hyde; both are cheap, but Duke comes at a $600 discount from Hyde and offers a contrarian upside at only 3% of rosters. Lastly, be aware of the running back situation in Oakland, where Josh Jacobs is battling a shoulder issue and may not play on Sunday; with a late start, Jalen Richard is an intriguing GPP differentiator who could end up on only 1% of rosters despite touching the ball 15+ times against the Titans. The caveat is that the Raiders-Titans game starts at 4:25 (EST) and you will need a late-swap option if Jacobs is deemed active after lineups lock.
WIDE RECEIVERS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Julian Edelman | KC | $7,100 | 12% | Yes | «««« | Double-digit targets in seven straight games. |
Davante Adams | WAS | $8,000 | 16% | - | «««« | Locked-in with ARod. 10+ targets in 5 straight games. |
Tyrell Williams | TEN | $5,000 | 8% | - | «««« | TEN DBs: Malcolm Butler & Adoree Jackson both inactive. |
Odell Beckham | CIN | $6,300 | 11% | - | ««« | Potential blowup spot vs. 31st-ranked DVOA pass D. |
DeVante Parker | @NYJ | $6,900 | 9% | - | ««« | 10+ targets in every game since Preston Williams injury. |
Stefon Diggs | DET | $7,600 | 8% | - | ««« | Slay shadow could keep ownership reasonable. Easy WR1. |
Will Fuller | DEN | $5,500 | 8% | - | ««« | High-upside WR has best CB-WR matchup on Texans. |
D.J. Moore | @ATL | $7,000 | 11% | Yes | ««« | Averaging 11 targets/game since Week #7 bye. |
Keenan Allen | @JAX | $6,600 | 9% | - | ««« | No 100-yard game since Week #3, but bona fide WR1. |
Jamison Crowder | MIA | $5,300 | 10% | - | ««« | MIA: Getting clobbered by slot WRs all season. |
DeAndre Hopkins | DEN | $7,400 | 13% | - | «« | Not afraid of Chris Harris, who is outclassed by Nuk. |
Robby Anderson | MIA | $5,100 | 8% | - | «« | Big-play receiver has GPP upside at fair price. |
Tyler Boyd | @CLE | $5,900 | 7% | - | «« | Avoids best CLE defenders from slot. Plus gamescript. |
Julio Jones | CAR | $7,500 | 7% | - | «« | Rested, but is he 100%? Limited practice all week. |
Christian Kirk | PIT | $5,200 | 9% | Yes | «« | Highest-volume WR on Cards. Fairly priced. |
Kenny Golladay | @MIN | $6,700 | 3% | - | «« | Should see plenty of action as 12-point underdog. |
Auden Tate | @CLE | $4,000 | 2% | Yes | «« | Size, skillset, gamescript = favorable. TD regression? |
Curtis Samuel | @ATL | $4,900 | 8% | - | «« | TD-dependent GPP play. Leverage against Moore owners. |
Emmanuel Sanders | @NO | $5,800 | 1% | - | «« | Appears to be past injury. Favorable gamescript/usage. |
Mike Evans | @IND | $7,200 | 15% | - | «« | Scoreless over past month--that likely changes vs. Indy. |
Parris Campbell | TB | $3,200 | 2% | - | «« | Sleeper returns from hand injury vs. pass-funnel DEF. |
Marcus Johnson | TB | $3,600 | 2% | - | «« | De facto WR2 for Indy. Cheap w/upside vs. TB secondary. |
Sammy Watkins | @NE | $4,600 | 2% | - | « | Pats' efforts to shut down Tyreek/Kelce = helps Watkins? |
Olabisi Johnson | DET | $3,700 | 1% | - | « | Cheap way to get a piece of the highest projected team. |
Allen Lazard | WAS | $4,200 | 1% | - | « | GB'S WR2 merits GPP consideration vs. WAS. |
Geronimo Allison | WAS | $3,400 | 1% | - | « | Banking on TD at his salary--scoreless since Week #4. |
Chris Godwin | @IND | $7,300 | 12% | - | « | Benefits from injury to Indy slot CB, Kenny Moore. |
Diontae Johnson | @ARZ | $4,300 | 3% | - | « | Fading JWashington for similar upside at lower price. |
Michael Thomas | SF | $8,300 | 17% | Yes | « | Contends w/Sherman shadow, but cannot ignore. |
Jakobi Meyers | KC | $3,500 | 1% | - | « | GPP flyer. Runback option with Mahomes-Hill stacks. |
Kenny Stills | DEN | $3,700 | 3% | - | « | Far back from Nuk/Fuller, but cheap stack with Deshaun. |
Calvin Ridley | CAR | $6,700 | 9% | - | « | 8/143/1 vs. CAR in last. Benefits if Julio is not 100%. |
Marvin Jones | @MIN | $5,400 | 2% | - | « | Leads league in receiving TDs. Cannot be ignored. |
Ted Ginn Jr | SF | $3,600 | 1% | - | « | If Sherman limits MThomas, Ginn should benefit. |
Tyreek Hill | @NE | $8,100 | 7% | - | « | Rank assumes McCourty is inactive. Downgrade otherwise. |
Jarvis Landry | CIN | $6,500 | 10% | - | « | Primary receiver in CLE, but reached 4x salary only 3x. |
D.J. Chark | LAC | $6,200 | 7% | - | « | Speedster has challenge against stellar LAC DBs. |
A.J. Brown | @OAK | $5,300 | 4% | - | « | Best receiving option on Titans' run-heavy offense. |
Zach Pascal | TB | $5,500 | 8% | - | « | Priced a tad high despite WR1 title. 7/109/0 in last. |
Danny Amendola | @MIN | $4,000 | 1% | - | « | Could absorb Hockenson's targets in short game. |
WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:
CASH: Limited value at the wide receiver position for cash games this weekend, which is yet another reason that the Bilal Powell news will make him the highest-owned player in recent memory. At the high-end of the salary scale, feel free to roll with Michael Thomas against the Niners, despite a tough on-paper matchup against San Francisco's top-ranked (DVOA) secondary. Richard Sherman is ProFootballFocus' 5th-ranked coverage cornerback, but Thomas is averaging 3x this week's salary and has double-digit targets in all-but-three games this season. Near the $7K price point, both Julian Edelman and D.J. Moore look to be solid cash game options due to their continued heavy-usage in their respective offenses. Edelman appears to be the only wide receiver trusted by Tom Brady and Moore is averaging over 10 targets per game over the past 2 months. Both Edelman and Moore have plus personnel matchups against secondaries that should not diminish their team marketshare. Lastly, Auden Tate and Christian Kirk are modest-priced options for cash games. Tate will deal with a combination of Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward on the perimeter, but his $4K price point and improved quarterback play keep him relevant. Kirk is a bit more expensive, but is the focal point of the Cards offense that has run the most plays of all NFL teams.
GPP: It will be a difficult click to make, but Tyrell Williams could not be in a better spot on Sunday against the Titans. Tennessee lost Malcolm Butler back in Week #10 and now will be without Adoree Jackson, who will miss this week with a foot injury. As a result, the "Gazelle" will have subpar coverage and increased volume as a result of the Hunter Renfrow injury that placed him on injured reserve two weeks ago. Tyrell has struggled to put up solid numbers with Derek Carr's low-ADoT style this season, but this game represents his best chance of delivering GPP goodness on a reasonable $5.0K salary. Elsewhere, Odell Beckham's salary is embarrassingly low against one of the league's worst defenses and merits consideration for tournaments despite a terrible season in Cleveland. OBJ has but one 100-yard game and only 2 scores on the season, but the remedy could come in the form of the Bengals' 31st-DVOA pass defense; add in his low ownership and OBJ becomes one of the better tournament plays on the expansive Week #14 slate. As deeper GPP options, please give consideration to the ancillary receiving options in Indianapolis against the Buccaneers' terrible secondary. Both Marcus Johnson and Parris Campbell will be on less than 5% of lineups due to heavier exposure to Jack Doyle and Zach Pascal, but those lower-priced (and lower-owned) receivers bring similar upside to the equation without the added cost.
TIGHT ENDS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Jack Doyle | @TB | $4,600 | 13% | Yes | «««« | Chalk option gets 2nd-friendliest DEF vs. position. |
Darren Waller | TEN | $5,800 | 11% | - | «««« | As predicted, usage ticked up w/out Renfrow in last. |
Mike Gesicki | @NYJ | $4,000 | 8% | - | ««« | Under-the-radar usage since Preston Williams injury. |
Ian Thomas | @ATL | $2,500 | 6% | Yes | ««« | Punt option. Rounded out 2018 as a top-end tight end. |
Travis Kelce | @NE | $6,200 | 13% | - | ««« | Patrick Chung will have his hands full. Underpriced. |
Hunter Henry | @JAX | $5,100 | 14% | - | ««« | Short memory--last week's poor game was an aberration. |
Kyle Rudolph | DET | $4,400 | 3% | - | «« | Been used frequently in absence of Thielen. |
Ryan Griffin | MIA | $4,100 | 3% | - | «« | Plus spot versus TE-friendly defense. Low ownership. |
Noah Fant | @HOU | $3,400 | 4% | - | «« | Lock threw 8 passes to TEs in debut = best shot for DEN. |
Jared Cook | SF | $4,200 | 4% | - | «« | 26 targets over past month. 3rd choice in plus offense. |
Anthony Firkser | @OAK | $2,700 | 1% | - | «« | Sneaky GPP flyer. Titans using Jonnu to block. |
George Kittle | @NO | $5,900 | 14% | - | « | Always in play, but matchup is less than appealing. |
Vance McDonald | @ARZ | $4,300 | 4% | - | « | ARZ: NFL's worst defense vs. TEs. A bit pricey. |
Irv Smith | DET | $3,300 | 4% | - | « | Small % for contrarian GPP option in MIN stacks. |
Austin Hooper | CAR | $6,000 | 3% | - | « | Wait-and-see game. Price is high and usage is unclear. |
TIGHT END TIDBITS:
CASH: In his first game without Eric Ebron, Jack Doyle finished with 11 targets and a 6/73/1 stat line for 19.3 DK points. This week, he gets the league's 2nd-friendliest defense against his position and should be similarly targeted, as T.Y. Hilton is expected to miss yet another game with a calf injury...at $4.6K, he is the best option for cash games. If you need to punt the position altogether, you could do worse than Ian Thomas the site-minimum price of $2.5K. In a similar situation last year (i.e., Greg Olsen injury with Thomas as a starter), Thomas achieved 4x value in 4 of 5 starts to close the 2018 season.
GPP: There are a lot of ways to go in tournaments at the tight end position. Names like Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Hunter Henry top the charts due to their respective team marketshare. Waller capitalized on the season-ending injury to Hunter Renfrow last week and finished with 20.0 DK points against the Chiefs. Kelce will have to contend with Patrick Chung, who has shut down most tight ends this season, but betting on Kelce's superior skillset has won many tournaments in the past. As for Henry, he is coming off a disappointing week against the Broncos, but he continues to be heavily used in his offense and is affordably priced at only $5.1K. As a deep GPP flyer, look to Anthony Firkser at only $2.7K against the Raiders, who allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to his position; others will roster Jonnu Smith, but Firkser ran more routes than Smith last week despite playing less snaps (i.e., Smith is being used as a blocker).
TEAM DEFENSES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Ravens | @BUF | $2,900 | 7% | Yes | «««« | Happy to take best defense in NFL for sub-$3K. |
Packers | WAS | $4,000 | 7% | - | «««« | Haskins legitimizes all defenses. Lambeau helps. |
Vikings | DET | $3,800 | 8% | Yes | ««« | Rostering MIN is a bet against Blough's NFL-worthiness. |
Patriots | KC | $3,000 | 1% | - | ««« | Mahomes is still human vs. man-to-man defenses. |
Steelers | @ARZ | $3,500 | 4% | - | ««« | Steelers' best route to victory is via defensive play. |
Saints | SF | $3,100 | 2% | - | ««« | Underrated unit plays host to overrated offense. |
Jaguars | LAC | $3,100 | 1% | - | ««« | Rivers fading fast: 8 INTs in last 3 games. |
Cardinals | PIT | $2,400 | 3% | - | «« | Small piece in case "Duck" Hodges falters. |
Panthers | @ATL | $2,800 | 2% | - | «« | Soft up front, but plus secondary can create turnovers. |
Texans | DEN | $3,300 | 7% | - | «« | More of a bet against Lock than a bet on HOU D. |
Colts | TB | $2,400 | 8% | - | « | Going against Jameis has worked well in 2019. |
Browns | CIN | $3,600 | 5% | - | « | CIN: Allows 2nd most FPs to opposing defenses. |
Falcons | CAR | $3,000 | 2% | - | « | Questions about CAR offense after Rivera's firing. |
Titans | @OAK | $2,600 | 2% | - | « | Cheap. Double-digits in 3 of previous 5 games. |
Jets | MIA | $3,200 | 7% | - | « | Dolphins' low implied team total makes Jets relevant. |
Bills | BAL | $2,900 | 1% | - | « | Defensive battle should provide fantasy upside. |
Buccaneers | @IND | $2,300 | 5% | - | « | Indy missing Hilton, Ebron, and limiting Mack = in play. |
TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:
CASH: Sean McDermott has done a fantastic job scheming against Josh Allen's deficiencies (i.e., inaccuracy and poor decision-making) this season, as evidenced by his year-over-year increased completion percentage decreased interception rate (7.1% down to 3.5%). That said, Allen and the Bills are touchdown-underdogs to the league's best defense on Sunday and the Ravens are likely underpriced at only $2.9K. With a secondary featuring Marlon Humphrey, Jimmy Smith, and Marcus Peters, the Ravens have not allowed more than 20 points to an opponent since Week #5 and have double-digit fantasy points in 5 of their previous 6 games. If salary is not limiting, feel free to roll with the Vikings at home against David Blough, who likely will not have the same success against Minnesota that he had on Thanksgiving against the Bears overrated defense.
GPP: It is only a matter of time until Dwayne Haskins implodes and wins somebody a GPP. Despite his college numbers, Haskins is not NFL-ready and his supporting cast (save Terry McLaurin) is doing him no favors, either. Winners of two straight, the Redskins offense is fraudulent and will soon be exposed, likely on Sunday at Lambeau. With only a pair of touchdowns against six touchdowns, Haskins is not threatening and confers significant upside to the Packers defense, so pay up to be contrarian. Elsewhere, take some stock in the Patriots at home against Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs. The Pats admittedly rolled through a cupcake schedule early, but Bill Belichick will be prepared for this matchup and Patrick Mahomes II' success is skewed to zone versus man-to-man defense (dating back to last year); nobody runs more man-to-man coverage than the New England Patriots, who average 16.3 DK points per game (highest on the main slate).