For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
2019 FORMAT:
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
| Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
| Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
| Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
| Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
| Aaron Rodgers | @NYG | $6,500 | 8% | - | «««« | Sweet, sweet matchup vs. 27th-ranked DVOA pass defense. |
| Jared Goff | @ARZ | $6,000 | 7% | - | «««« | ARZ: 28th-ranked DVOA pass defense. Get-right spot. |
| Patrick Mahomes II | OAK | $7,000 | 13% | Yes | «««« | Absolute smash spot. 300+ yards in 70% completed games. |
| Kyle Allen | WAS | $5,500 | 2% | - | ««« | 23+ DK points versus better Saints defense in last. |
| Carson Wentz | @MIA | $5,800 | 9% | - | ««« | No better matchup to fix his recent struggles. |
| Derek Carr | @KC | $5,500 | 2% | - | ««« | KC defense is allowing nearly 4x Carr's salary to QBs. |
| Andy Dalton | NYJ | $4,700 | 7% | - | «« | Makes return at home versus pass-funnel defense. |
| Nick Foles | TB | $5,700 | 9% | - | «« | TB secondary legitimizes all opposing quarterbacks. |
| Jameis Winston | @JAX | $6,300 | 8% | - | «« | Inefficient, but 6-straight 20+ point performances. |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | PHL | $5,400 | 1% | - | «« | Ballage's ineffectiveness + gamescript = GPP relevance. |
| Sam Darnold | @CIN | $6,100 | 8% | - | « | Plush spot for red-hot QB averaging 26 PPG over last 3. |
| Lamar Jackson | SF | $7,400 | 10% | Yes | « | Rainy conditions could increase his running output. |
| Kyler Murray | LAR | $6,400 | 4% | - | « | Rested off bye. Same Rams D that allowed 5 TDs to Lamar. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: Cash games are fairly straightforward at the quarterback position this week: Spend up. Regular readers of the column know that I typically like to save salary at the quarterback position, but this is a week where it appears that spending a good chunk of your salary on a quarterback is merited because there is too much risk at the lower end of the salary scale. For what it's worth, Andy Dalton nearly made the cut, but there are too many unknowns around his situation to feel confident in that selection (for cash games). So pick your poison between Patrick Mahomes II ($7.0K) or Lamar Jackson ($7.4K) against the Raiders and 49'ers, respectively. Mahomes is coming off a bye week, where Andy Reid is 17-3 in his career, to face a Raiders defense that is ranked 30th overall against the pass (DVOA metric); with an implied team total surpassing 30 points and 300+ passing yards in 5 out of 7 games, Mahomes looks primed to deliver 25+ fantasy points once again on Sunday. At first glance, one might balk at rostering Lamar Jackson against one of the league's better defenses in the San Francisco 49'ers, but the Niners have multiple injured defensive starters and allowed "Lamar Jackson-lite" (aka Kyler Murray) to compile 50 points across a pair of games this season. With anticipated rainy conditions, we will probably see more of Jackson's speed on display and the Niners simply have no answer for him.
GPP: Look for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to deliver plenty of fantasy production on Sunday at the Meadowlands. The Pack was embarrassed by the 49'ers last week on Sunday Night Football and there is no better rebound spot than against the Giants, who have allowed all but 2 quarterbacks to collect multiple touchdowns and/or 300-passing yards this season. The Giants' 27th-ranked DVOA pass defense should make things look easy for Rodgers and company, making him a reasonable tournament quarterback on less than 10% of lineups. A similar argument could be made for Jared Goff in Arizona--the Cardinals field the 28th-ranked DVOA pass defense, while the Rams are coming off an equally embarrassing loss to the Ravens last Monday night. Goff has been mediocre, at best, this season, but this game sets up well for him and his receivers against the league's friendliest defense to opposing quarterbacks (yes, more than Tampa Bay). In the middle range of salaries, both Carson Wentz and Kyle Allen are also intriguing tournament options. Wentz gets a plush matchup against the league's worst defense, one that has allowed 7 touchdowns and nearly 600 passing yards to Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen over their previous 2 games. Allen, on the other hand, is far too low-owned at 2% against a Redskins defense that has yielded three or more touchdowns to five different quarterbacks this season; prior to last week where Allen threw for 3 touchdowns against a solid Saints defense, he posted back-to-back 300-yard games in his previous pair of efforts.
