For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
GAMESTACKING. A quick revisit to a topic that I know has been discussed here before, but on a week where the Tampa Bay-Atlanta game features a pair of terrible defenses and a 52-point game total in Vegas, it merits a quick revisit. Sharp DFS players know that correlations win tournaments, which is why 95% of lineups in GPP contests contain a quarterback-receiver stack of some type. Over the past few years, however, stacking players from a singular game has become a winning strategy because scoring is often correlated, particularly when one team scores 30+ points. This week, we will see a lot of attention on the aforementioned TB-ATL game for these reasons; in turn, ownership on Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, and their respective receivers is going to be sky-high. My advice is to get exposure to this game and stack it accordingly, but to intentionally differentiate your lineup with < 5%-owned players elsewhere because there will be a lot of Matt Ryan-Julio Jones-Mike Evans rosters that also contain cheaper, popular players like Brian Hill, Miles Sanders, and Dallas Goedert--those rosters are dead before the games start because of their overall popularity. If you are aiming to go off-the-radar for your gamestacks this week, I like a few games to serve as alternatives for the game in Atlanta, namely Miami at Cleveland and Oakland at the Jets. Both contests feature defenses with questions or proven deficiencies and capable cheap offenses at low ownership. Build your rosters accordingly.
2019 FORMAT:
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Mason Rudolph | @CIN | $5,500 | 1% | - | «««« | Will go underowned due to Cleveland debacle. Soft spot. |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | @CLE | $5,000 | 2% | - | «««« | Suspensions on Browns D should elevate Fitz' ceiling. |
Mitchell Trubisky | NYG | $5,100 | 3% | - | ««« | Matchup-based call. NYG secondary can fix his woes. |
Sam Darnold | OAK | $5,800 | 2% | - | ««« | Oakland's pass funnel defense keeps him relevant. |
Jameis Winston | @ATL | $6,200 | 13% | Yes | ««« | Cannot ignore in the week's most likely shootout. |
Matt Ryan | TB | $6,700 | 17% | Yes | ««« | Highest floor/upside at the position this week. |
Derek Carr | @NYJ | $6,100 | 3% | - | «« | Jets have been quietly getting throttled on defense. |
Tom Brady | DAL | $6,000 | 6% | - | «« | Cheap. Disappointed versus easier opponent in last. |
Jeff Driskel | @WAS | $5,500 | 3% | - | «« | Speedy QB is holding his own. Best matchup for him yet. |
Russell Wilson | @PHL | $6,800 | 9% | - | « | Eagles' pass-funnel defense helps his prospects. |
Drew Brees | CAR | $6,600 | 9% | - | « | In play, but high Kamara exposure = less Brees. |
Dak Prescott | @NE | $6,000 | 2% | - | « | Red-hot, but Amari is hobbled and Belichick > Garrett. |
Dwayne Haskins | DET | $4,900 | 1% | - | « | Small piece to stack with cheap receivers & Scarbrough. |
Carson Wentz | SEA | $5,600 | 10% | - | « | 1x 300-yard game since Week #1. Limited upside. |
Baker Mayfield | MIA | $5,900 | 9% | - | « | Great matchup, but only 11 TDs on the entire season. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: As outlined in the Tips section (above), nabbing players from the Buccaneer-Falcon game in Atlanta makes a lot of sense for both cash games and tournaments. The quarterback position is surprisingly thin for cash games and either of the quarterbacks from that game makes the most sense for those contests this weekend. The game features the 30th- and 27th-ranked DVOA pass defenses and questions abound within each team's respective backfield. Vegas is telling us that the game should shoot out, as evidenced by the slate-high 52-point game total, which means that we could roll with either of these quarterbacks in cash games. The recommendation is to build two cash game lineups, one with each quarterback featured, so as to diversify your rosters and minimize the possibility of negative variance. In tournaments, both are also in play, but be sure to build uniqueness into your rosters elsewhere or you will be drawing dead before lineups lock on Sunday afternoon.
GPP: Coming off a game where he nearly lost his head, both figuratively and literally, Mason Rudolph tops my list of GPP quarterbacks in Week #12. On only 1% of lineups, you do not have to go heavily overweight on the field to get an advantage over your competitors, but the recommendation is to get at least 5% of your lineups with Rudolph under center. Why? Because public perception is that Rudolph is terrible after he imploded against the Browns last week, but he has been serviceable against bad defenses this season and in those games, he had a healthy James Conner, who mopped up late in those games (Cincinnati and Miami); with Conner now injured and Jaylen Samuels as the lead back who catches a lot of passes, Rudolph could conceivably throw for 250+ yards and 2-3 touchdowns against the league's 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense at a bargain price. Other cheap, low-owned options include Ryan Fitzpatrick in Cleveland and/or Mitchell Trubisky at home against the Giants. Fitzmagic will get a Browns defense that is missing four of its starters on defense, including a pair of key pass rushers (Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi, both suspended), which should provide the savvy veteran plenty of time to find the open receiver in a game that has an inside potential to shoot out. In Chicago, Trubisky is coming off another bad game where questions surrounded the legitimacy of an injury that gave way to Chase Daniel in relief, but we cannot ignore the ineptitude of the Giants secondary and the personnel matchups that the Bears could exploit in this matchup; with Tarik Cohen seeing more action of late, it would not be surprising to see Trubisky deliver a solid Sunday performance based sheerly on yards-after-the-catch from names like Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and the aforementioned Cohen.
RUNNING BACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Bo Scarbrough | @WAS | $4,200 | 4% | Yes | «««« | Do not understand the low ownership--it's a gift. |
Alvin Kamara | CAR | $8,200 | 26% | Yes | «««« | Still underpriced vs. 32nd-ranked DVOA rush defense. |
Miles Sanders | SEA | $5,000 | 18% | Yes | ««« | Missed in last, but going back to well at home vs. SEA. |
Saquon Barkley | @CHI | $7,900 | 8% | - | ««« | Rested and healthy off bye week. Price is right. |
Phillip Lindsay | @BUF | $5,200 | 12% | Yes | ««« | Absorbed RB1 role last week. BUF is susceptible to run. |
Kalen Ballage | @CLE | $4,400 | 10% | - | ««« | Browns lose 2 key D-linemen to suspension. Salary-saver. |
Brian Hill | TB | $4,900 | 11% | Yes | «« | Tough run defense, but favored by volume & gamescript. |
Nick Chubb | MIA | $8,100 | 13% | - | «« | Great spot, but Hunt's presence steals receptions. |
James White | DAL | $5,300 | 9% | - | «« | Utility back can give defenses fits. Prefer him @ 5-7%. |
Ezekiel Elliott | @NE | $7,500 | 8% | - | «« | If Garrett is smart, he'll try to win with Zeke, but… |
David Montgomery | NYG | $5,500 | 9% | - | «« | Tarik Cohen sapping into his volume. Be careful. |
Leonard Fournette | @TEN | $7,300 | 14% | - | « | Way to beat TEN is through the air. Low-scoring game? |
Devin Singletary | DEN | $5,400 | 8% | - | « | Bulk of carries, but DEN defense is no slouch. |
Jaylen Samuels | @CIN | $7,200 | 2% | - | « | Great matchup, but high price & Snell are deterrents. |
Benny Snell | @CIN | $4,500 | 1% | - | « | Sneaky. Steelers like him & could feed him steadily. |
Josh Jacobs | @NYJ | $7,400 | 9% | - | « | Jets: 2nd DVOA versus rush. Prefer OAK passing game. |
Chris Carson | @PHL | $6,700 | 12% | - | « | Will need to be involved in passing game to deliver. |
LeVeon Bell | OAK | $6,400 | 21% | - | « | Price helps, but OAK's weak spot is their secondary. |
Derrick Henry | JAX | $6,900 | 20% | - | « | Fading due to lofty ownership, but decent spot vs. JAX. |
Christian McCaffrey | NO | $10,500 | 12% | - | « | Might fade completely. ~ 17-point implied team total. |
RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:
CASH: If you want to roll with Christian McCaffrey in cash games again this week, I will not stop you, but I am leaning against rostering him because the Saints are a formidable opponent that has not allowed 100 rushing yards to an opposing running back all season, one that has included Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and (a healthy) Todd Gurley, amongst others. While I am addressing CMC, there is a strong chance that he will not appear in my GPP player pool this week either, as the Panthers' 17-point implied team total means that he must capture all of those points to come close to reaching 4x value at his exorbitant price point. With that said, you can look towards another running back in that same game as an expensive cash game option: Alvin Kamara. Kamara is fairly priced at $8.2K against the Panthers' 32nd-ranked DVOA rush defense and is fresh off a 23-touch for 122 all-purpose yard performance against the league's best DVOA rush defense (Tampa Bay). He is well-placed to deliver 3x value against the Panthers, particularly in light of his heavy usage as a receiver in the Saints' passing game (10 receptions last week). Phillip Lindsay is another option for both cash games and tournaments because it appears that the Broncos have finally given preference to him over Royce Freeman in the Broncos backfield. Last Sunday, Ian Rapoport revealed that reality about an hour before lineups locked and Lindsay captured 18 touches versus only 9 for Freeman. Assuming that Lindsay continues to take a lead role, he is viable for all formats against a Bills reverse-funnel defense that is susceptible to the run, having allowed 96+ rushing yards to opposing RB1's in 3 of their previous 4 games. Lastly, Bo Scarbrough appears to have absorbed the RB1 role in Detroit after he collected 14 carries and all the redzone touches out of the backfield against the Cowboys last week. Scarbrough is being ignored by the DFS community and it's unclear why? He has a soft matchup against a Redskins' defensive front that has allowed a rushing touchdown in three consecutive weeks. His involvement in the passing game is a lingering question, but his size, matchup, price, redzone usage, and low ownership make him an excellent option for all game formats.
GPP: At only $7.9K, Saquon Barkley is a pristine GPP option coming off a bye week against the Bears, who allowed big games to lesser running backs (Latavius Murray and Josh Jacobs) already this season. Barkley was not 100% going into the Giants bye, but he practiced in full all week and also brings upside as a receiver against Chicago, a defense that has allowed 5 or more receptions to his position in 60% of their games to date. A cheap flyer, Kalen Ballage reluctantly finds his way into this article once again. Ballage has displayed dreadful efficiency stats, converting 64 carries into only 122 rushing yards, but the fault is not entirely his--his offensive line has allowed him to be hit behind the line of scrimmage on a ridiculous percentage of plays. That could change this week against the Browns who will be without four starters on defense, including a pair of key players on their defensive line. Ballage is still enjoying 100% of the Dolphins' redzone carries, which is enough incentive to roll with him for yet another week at only $4.4K. As a deep GPP flyer, you could do worse than taking a few stabs at Benny Snell against the Bengals' horrid defensive front; earlier this season, Snell was heavily used in relief of James Conner, but went down to injury, which elevated names like Jaylen Samuels and Trey Edmunds to consideration. Snell is slated to return this week and it would not be surprising to see him take on the RB1 role ahead of Samuels. Monitor Twitter on Sunday morning for updates from beat reporters to see if this theory comes to fruition.
WIDE RECEIVERS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Diontae Johnson | @CIN | $5,100 | 2% | - | «««« | Gets WR1 treatment with JuJu sidelined. Plus matchup. |
Taylor Gabriel | NYG | $4,200 | 4% | - | «««« | Speedster can easily get behind slow NYG secondary. |
Allen Robinson | NYG | $6,500 | 7% | - | «««« | Veteran outclasses every NYG defensive back. |
Anthony Miller | NYG | $3,500 | 4% | - | ««« | Punt option in great spot coming off 11-target game. |
James Washington | @CIN | $5,000 | 3% | - | ««« | Questions everywhere on PIT offense, but not here. |
Mike Evans | @ATL | $7,300 | 20% | Yes | ««« | Only deterrent is his popularity, but cannot ignore. |
Julio Jones | TB | $8,000 | 26% | Yes | ««« | Best matchup of the week. And the DFS crowd knows it. |
Golden Tate | @CHI | $5,700 | 3% | - | ««« | Love running Trubisky-CHI WR stacks plus Tate. |
Julian Edelman | DAL | $6,900 | 11% | - | ««« | Could wreak havoc underneath w/Vander Esch missing. |
Chris Godwin | @ATL | $7,200 | 14% | - | ««« | Cheaper, lesser-owned alternative to Mike Evans. |
Kenny Golladay | @WAS | $6,600 | 2% | - | ««« | Too low-owned for upside, matchup, and role. |
Demaryius Thomas | OAK | $3,800 | 6% | Yes | ««« | Will keep riding DT as long as DK keeps him sub-$4K. |
DK Metcalf | @PHL | $6,300 | 4% | - | ««« | Usage is only thing preventing him from elite status. |
D.J. Chark | @TEN | $6,400 | 9% | - | ««« | 2-for-2 with huge games when Foles is under center. |
Robby Anderson | OAK | $4,800 | 1% | - | «« | Big play receiver versus defense that yields big plays. |
Paul Richardson Jr | DET | $4,000 | 1% | - | «« | Returns this week and should avoid Slay shadow. |
Scott Miller | @ATL | $3,100 | 1% | - | «« | Speed demon earning WR3 role in potential barnburner. |
DeVante Parker | @CLE | $5,200 | 12% | Yes | «« | Super consistent, but ownership starting to creep up. |
Jamison Crowder | DET | $6,200 | 4% | - | «« | Avoids Slay from slot. Gets best personnel matchup. |
Tim Patrick | @BUF | $3,100 | 4% | - | «« | Sneaky GPP differentiator. Increased volume of late. |
Michael Gallup | @NE | $5,900 | 3% | - | «« | If Amari is not 100%, we could see more Gallup action. |
Allen Hurns | @CLE | $3,300 | 7% | Yes | «« | Snaps/targets trending up since Preston Willams to IR. |
Tyrell Williams | @NYJ | $5,900 | 4% | - | «« | Jets giving up points in droves. Possible TD regression. |
Calvin Ridley | TB | $6,500 | 16% | - | «« | Cheaper, lesser-owned alternative to Julio Jones |
NKeal Harry | DAL | $3,300 | 3% | - | « | If Dorsett or Sanu is inactive, bump the rookie up. |
A.J. Brown | JAX | $4,700 | 1% | - | « | Love the leverage play against the many Henry owners. |
Isaiah McKenzie | DEN | $4,400 | 1% | - | « | Could see overflow action from White-Sutton shadow. |
Danny Amendola | @WAS | $4,400 | 1% | - | « | Skins are easy on slot WRs; allowed TDs in back-to-back. |
Marvin Jones | @WAS | $6,100 | 2% | - | « | Cannot ignore his 2-touchdown upside on any week. |
Nelson Agholor | SEA | $4,100 | 4% | - | « | *INACTIVE* |
John Brown | DEN | $6,700 | 3% | - | « | Rough spot for Mr. Consistency versus Chris Harris. |
Hunter Renfrow | @NYJ | $4,500 | 3% | - | « | Leading Raiders WRs in targets. Worth a few percent. |
Ted Ginn Jr | CAR | $4,000 | 2% | - | « | #2 receiver on high-scoring team. Cannot ignore. |
Sterling Shepard | @CHI | $4,900 | 1% | - | « | Averaged 9 targets/game before concussion. In play. |
Tevin Jones | @CIN | $3,000 | 1% | - | « | GPP differentiator. Should get snaps out of slot. |
Amari Cooper | @NE | $6,600 | 3% | - | « | Down here because I don't think that he's 100%. |
Tyler Lockett | @PHL | $7,600 | 9% | - | « | Arguably could be higher. Will be if TB/ATL trends up. |
Josh Gordon | @PHL | $4,200 | 3% | - | « | Not convinced that he'll see > 50% of snaps = 1 star. |
Kelvin Harmon | DET | $3,300 | 1% | - | « | Downgrade if Richardson is active. |
Damion Willis | PIT | $3,100 | 1% | - | « | Only in play if Auden Tate (concussion) is inactive. |
Curtis Samuel | @NO | $5,400 | 4% | - | « | Tough to click with his QB's recent play. |
Russell Gage | TB | $3,900 | 9% | - | « | Ownership getting too high for his caliber of play. |
Alshon Jeffery | SEA | $4,900 | 7% | - | « | Not the player he has been in the past. Soft fade. |
Tyler Boyd | PIT | $5,000 | 8% | - | « | Finley has been killing his productivity. Tough spot. |
D.J. Moore | @NO | $6,400 | 10% | - | « | Upgrade him to 2-stars if Lattimore is inactive. |
Jarvis Landry | MIA | $6,300 | 13% | - | « | Calculated fade on Browns WRs. Prefer other options. |
Michael Thomas | CAR | $9,300 | 23% | Yes | « | Prefer Kamara at reduced price and similar ownership. |
Odell Beckham | MIA | $7,000 | 17% | - | « | See notes on Jarvis. Tough call w/stellar matchup. |
WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:
CASH: Several high-dollar wide receivers are in play for cash games in Week #12. First, Michael Thomas is on pace to set the all-time season record for receptions in a season and has shown no signs of slowing down at any point; he is pricey, but if the money is available, he has surpassed 100-receiving yards in 5 of his previous 6 games and appears to be a good place to spend it. Dropping down a few thousand, both Mike Evans and Julio Jones are solid options in their game against one another in Atlanta. Jones gets a pass-funnel defense in Tampa Bay that ranks 1st against the run, but 30th versus the pass, while Evans stands to benefit from a back-and-forth contest where his team has little interest (or ability) to run the ball. As cheaper options, both Allen Hurns and Demaryius Thomas are possible punt options that could deliver 3x value on their respective salaries. Hurns has been a steady WR2 since Preston Williams was put on the IR a few weeks back and he gets a decent matchup against a Browns defense that will be without four starters on Sunday. Demaryius Thomas is averaging nearly seven targets per game since becoming a starter in Week #5 and should benefit from facing off against the Raiders, whose stout defensive front forces action through the air.
GPP: While the DFS world is determining how to jam players from the Tampa Bay-Atlanta game into their lineups, there will be other teams that go largely overlooked for tournament formats. One such possibility is loading up on the Bears receivers against a Giants secondary that is ranked as the 28th DVOA pass defense this season; only the Buccaneers have yielded more fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. With Allen Robinson coming in at a discount, in terms of price and ownership, from names like Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and Michael Thomas, he brings similar upside to those names alongside much needed roster differentiation. And if you just cannot get away from the Bucs-Falcons game, you can slot in either Taylor Gabriel or Anthony Miller, both of whom are intriguing options, to capture some upside and uniqueness. In Ohio, there is also some appeal to doing something similar with the Steelers' lesser-name receivers. Both Diontae Johnson and James Washington are going to have plush matchups against a Bengals defense that gets zero pressure on their opponents. Cincinnati only sacks the quarterback 1.3 times per game, while the Steelers' offensive line is one of the league's best, allowing only 1.5 sacks per game; collectively, this means that Johnson and Washington should have plenty of time to find space against the league's 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense. Lastly, as a leverage play away from those highly owned receivers in the Bucs-Falcons game, do not be afraid to punt with Scott Miller, who appears to be overtaking the WR3 role over Breshad Perriman. Miller has elite speed and presents coverage issues for the Falcons secondary; at only $3.1K and on only 1% of rosters, Miller only needs to score to reach 4x value.
TIGHT ENDS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Vance McDonald | @CIN | $3,500 | 11% | Yes | «««« | Stands out at a shallow position. Love the discount. |
Ben Watson | DAL | $3,100 | 2% | - | «««« | Could be asked to do more w/questions around NE WRs. |
Mike Gesicki | @CLE | $3,400 | 9% | - | ««« | Routes/snaps/targets all trending up. Price is right. |
Cameron Brate | @ATL | $3,600 | 3% | - | ««« | 14 targets with O.J. Howard in Ariens' doghouse, |
Jacob Hollister | @PHL | $4,300 | 4% | - | ««« | 8 targets/game since becoming starter. |
Darren Waller | @NYJ | $5,700 | 13% | Yes | ««« | Oakland's #1 receiver. Price hurts, but upside is there. |
Greg Olsen | @NO | $4,100 | 11% | - | «« | Has been steady, but not sure he merits 10+% ownership. |
Jaeden Graham | TB | $3,300 | 2% | - | «« | If he doesn't deliver vs. TB, he won't be here again. |
Dawson Knox | DEN | $3,000 | 2% | - | «« | Cheap flyer. Entrenched at position. |
Ryan Griffin | OAK | $4,200 | 4% | - | «« | 3 double-digit fantasy games in past month. |
Jared Cook | CAR | $4,500 | 7% | - | « | Tough spot vs. 3rd-stingiest defense to tight ends. |
Noah Fant | @BUF | $3,900 | 7% | - | « | No TE with > 60 yards vs. BUF in 2019. |
Dallas Goedert | SEA | $3,700 | 11% | - | « | If Jeffery is active, could see less opportunity. |
Zach Ertz | SEA | $6,000 | 17% | - | « | Love the player. Hate the price/ownership. Short fade. |
TIGHT END TIDBITS:
CASH: Vance McDonald is my top cash game and tournament tight end this Sunday. With injuries to JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner, there are plenty of looks to be redistributed to ancillary Steelers skill players, including McDonald. His snaps and routes have been trending up for several weeks now and is enters this game against the Bengals having played nearly 100% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps over the past pair of weeks. The matchup against Cinci is stellar, as they have allowed 4x McDonald's salary to over half of opposing tight ends this season. At the higher-end of the scale, Darren Waller continues to be Derek Carr's favorite receiver and faces a Jets defense that stifles opposing runners, thereby funneling action to the pass. Waller is expensive, however, so your cash game builds will have to be conservative elsewhere to fit his $5.7K salary; on a week with limited value, I suspect that most of my cash game lineups will feature McDonald over Waller for this reason.
GPP: With questions surrounding the health of Mohamed Sanu (ankle) and Phillip Dorsett (concussion), it would appear that Ben Watson stands to be a strong contender for beneficiary status if those players are inactive on Sunday. Watson's usage has been steady, ranging from 70% to 100% of the Patriots' offensive snaps, and his price is right at only $3.1K against a Cowboys defense that is allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game (14.7) to his position. With Preston Williams' season over, it appears that the Dolphins have decided to give more opportunity to last year's second-round pick, Mike Gesicki; having topped out at ~ 60% of snaps for the bulk of the season, Gesicki saw nearly 90% of the Dolphins snaps last Sunday and he collected six targets for the third consecutive week. Lastly, as I near the end of this article, we are getting reports that the Eagles are making roster moves to accommodate the possibility of Alshon Jeffery and/or Nelson Agholor being inactive on Sunday; if that were to happen, feel free to roll with either Dallas Goedert or Zach Ertz in tournament formats, as they should be key cogs in that passing game.
TEAM DEFENSES
An | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Broncos | @BUF | $2,400 | 9% | Yes | «««« | Suspect Fangio will scheme to force mistakes from Allen. |
Panthers | @NO | $2,200 | 1% | - | «««« | Saints have struggled versus better defenses. Cheap. |
Bills | DEN | $3,400 | 6% | Yes | ««« | Love this spot at home versus Brandon Allen. |
Jaguars | @TEN | $2,800 | 6% | - | ««« | Titans O-line allowing their QB to get hit too often. |
Falcons | TB | $3,500 | 2% | - | ««« | Been on-point for two straight weeks. Can they 3-peat? |
Steelers | @CIN | $4,000 | 7% | Yes | ««« | Best team defense matchup vs. Finley, but it costs. |
Saints | CAR | $3,300 | 9% | - | «« | CAR has not scored > 20 points in last month. |
Patriots | DAL | $3,300 | 3% | - | «« | Cowboys have beaten one team with winning record. |
Titans | JAX | $3,200 | 3% | - | «« | Taking a few stabs to round out the GPP portfolio. |
Giants | @CHI | $2,900 | 2% | - | «« | Bad defense, but Trubisky is subject to implode. |
Eagles | SEA | $2,500 | 3% | - | « | Home defense will be fired up in must-win game. |
Seahawks | @PHL | $2,600 | 2% | - | « | Birds have not impressed on offense in some time. |
Browns | MIA | $3,800 | 8% | - | « | Not paying a premium for defense missing key starters. |
Bears | NYG | $3,700 | 8% | - | « | A bit too expensive for an average defense. Pass. |
TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:
CASH: The Steelers are the 'Cadillac' play at the team defense position this week against the Ryan Finley-led Cincinnati Bengals. Finley has been completely ineffective in eliciting anything from the Bengals since taking over a few weeks ago and opposing defenses are averaging a whopping 18.5 DK points per game against them. While the Steelers have been struggling on offense without key players, their defense continues to deliver big plays, which makes them a stellar cash and GPP play. In Buffalo, do not be afraid to go after Josh Allen with the Broncos defense despite the fact that Allen blew up last week's slate with a ~ 34-point performance. Vic Fangio has done a stellar job in exploiting opponents' talent deficiencies and he will be well-served to keep Allen in the pocket trying to make tight passes to his receivers in tough personnel matchups. Denver's best chance of winning this game is through a combination of run-heavy, ball-control offense and grinding defense, both of which the Broncos can accomplish against the Bills. If you want to split the difference of those two recommendations, rolling with Buffalo against Brandon Allen at a reasonable $3.4K is a reasonable compromise, given the Bills superior secondary and Allen's lack of NFL experience.
GPP: As in previous weeks, the recommendation at the team defense position for tournaments is to distribute your play across a variety of teams to try to capture those defensive touchdowns in key lineups without overexposing yourself to just a few chalky defenses. Not for the weak of heart, you might roll the dice and fade the Tampa Bay-Atlanta game altogether and roster the Falcons defense that woke from the dead two weeks ago, scoring 10- and 26-points, respectively, against the Saints and Panthers. We know that Jameis Winston is prone to throwing interceptions (18 thus far this year) and those can easily result in defensive touchdowns. The Patriots are also interesting GPP fodder against an overrated Cowboys squad that has but one victory against a winning team this season; at home with Bill Belichick scheming against Jason Garrett, you could do worse than going overweight on the Pats at only 3% of the field.