For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
LOW-SCORING WEEK?
2019 FORMAT:
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
| Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
| Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
| Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
| Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
| Matt Ryan | @NO | $6,000 | 4% | - | «««« | 300+ yards in every game that he has completed in 2019. |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | @IND | $5,200 | 1% | - | «««« | Value receivers & pass-heavy gamescript place him here. |
| Kyle Allen | @GB | $5,100 | 2% | - | ««« | Positive regression candidate is cheap and underowned. |
| Jared Goff | @PIT | $6,200 | 3% | - | ««« | Rested & underowned. Stacking easier without Cooks. |
| Drew Brees | ATL | $6,700 | 11% | - | ««« | Only deterrent is if Atlanta cannot keep it close. |
| Patrick Mahomes II | @TEN | $7,000 | 9% | - | «« | Definitely in play vs. pass funnel defense on the road. |
| Daniel Jones | @NYJ | $5,700 | 4% | - | «« | Jets defense is banged up. Game pace is promising. |
| Sam Darnold | NYG | $5,800 | 1% | - | «« | Giants secondary has stopped nobody--plus matchup. |
| Matthew Stafford | @CHI | $6,400 | 1% | - | «« | Tough matchup, but Stafford has been stellar of late. |
| Mason Rudolph | LAR | $4,900 | 1% | - | « | Just here for the JuJu stacks. Limited exposure. |
| Ryan Tannehill | KC | $5,100 | 6% | - | « | Possibly overlooked despite plus gamescript. Intriguing. |
| Jameis Winston | ARZ | $6,800 | 16% | - | « | Crowd fave. Fading somewhat to get more Ryan, etc. |
| Kyler Murray | @TB | $6,500 | 12% | Yes | « | Cannot justify % with limited WR options. Short fade. |
| Lamar Jackson | @CIN | $7,300 | 14% | Yes | « | Think this one gets out of hand early. Could be limited. |
CASH: Two scrambling quarterbacks in soft matchups sit atop the cash game list on Tips and Picks this week: Kyler Murray ($6.5K) and Lamar Jackson ($7.3K) each look primed to deliver 3x value on their respective salaries. Of the two, Murray is my personal favorite for cash games because we should expect him to be pushed by a solid Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense for four full quarters; Jackson, however, could be limited in the second half if Cincinnati cannot get anything going with Ryan Finley under center. That said, both have substantial scoring floors because of what they can do on the ground; Murray has 25 or more rushing yards in 67% of Arizona's games this season and Jackson is basically a running back who also throws the ball 25+ times each game. Murray gets a plush matchup against the Bucs' pass-funnel defense (1st DVOA rush defense; 26th DVOA pass defense) that has allowed 26.7 fantasy points per game to his position (30th in the league). Jackson finds himself a similarly soft matchup against the Bengals, who allow 24.2 DK points per game and have not yielded less than 18.5 points to an opposing quarterback all season. For GPP play, however, I am recommending fading both of these quarterbacks relative to the field. Murray's upside could be limited due to increased ground production via Kenyan Drake and David Johnson, not to mention Larry Fitzgerald's yearly decline at this point in the season. Meanwhile, Jackson's stacking options are limited to Marquise Brown and/or Mark Andrews in a game where the Ravens may take the air out of the ball in the second half.
GPP: Excluding one game that saw Matt Ryan go down with an injury and an uprepared Matt Schaub take his place, the Atlanta Falcons' quarterback has thrown for 300+ yards in every game this season. Fielding one of the league's worst defenses (31.2 points per game; 30th in NFL), the Falcons are forced to play catchup and no team's quarterback averages more attempts per game than Atlanta (42.9). This brings Matt Ryan back into the mix after missing his 1st start in his previous 154 games. Ryan is projected to be on only 4% of tournament rosters despite the fact that his team is slated to lose to the Saints by nearly two touchdowns. Just last year, Ryan shredded this Saints defense for over 750 yards passing and 7 touchdowns in their 2 NFC South matchups. After crunching the numbers, it came as somewhat of a surprise to see "another Ryan," Ryan Fitzpatrick come up as a 4-star GPP selection this Sunday. Giving it more thought, perhaps it is not surprising, as Fitzmagic has flirted with the 300-yard bonus on 50% of his starts this season, his stack options are limited, pricing on all Dolphins is excellent, Miami has lost two running backs in two weeks, and the implied gamescript sets up well for abundant passing. If he comes in on only 1% of tournament lineups on Sunday, it will have been too low, particularly on a week where value is otherwise limited. Sticking with the value theme, both quarterbacks in the game in the Meadowlands are intriguing tournament options: Sam Darnold ($5.8K) and Daniel Jones ($5.7K) will not be highly owned due to recent performances, but the Giants' 27th-ranked DVOA pass defense is far from daunting and the Jets are likely missing three starters on their defense with another handful of players tagged as questionable. Both teams have been running a lot of plays of late and this game has sneaky shootout potential (if you are a gambler, betting over 44.5 is a solid proposition here) for game-stacking purposes.
