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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
CRAZY WEEK: As I upload my player pool to the site from the Philadelphia airport, we were recently told that Matt Ryan, who practiced on Friday, will *not* play against the Seahawks on Sunday, breaking his consecutive start streak of 154 games. That means that another Matt, Matt Shaub, will get the home start against Seattle. Vegas has taken the game off their boards, so it is difficult to say exactly how to approach this game as of this moment. I will update the article throughout the evening with my evolving thoughts. Around the same time, we got a surprise notice that Drew Brees is going to make a return on Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals' terrible defense. This also comes as a bit of a surprise since the Saints have gone undefeated with Teddy Bridgewater under center and because the Saints have a bye next week, which would have given Brees another two weeks to recover from his thumb injury. That said, we probably should consider Brees and company in this matchup because the offense looks different when he is the starter. Stay tuned for additional thoughts this (Saturday) evening...
Saturday evening update: The implied team total for the Falcons dropped only two points with the announcement that Matt Ryan will be inactive on Sunday. Looking at our projections for Matt Schaub and comparing that output to his $4.7K salary, he becomes a possible cash game and an intriguing tournament play. Schaub is certainly not a world-beater, particularly in light of not having started a game in three years, but he is surrounded by talented skill players and has a favorable gamescript at home. He is assuredly going to be rusty and probably will throw an interception (or two), but his salary takes that risk into account. If you cannot afford the cash game options at quarterback listed in the Picks section, Schaub should be good enough for 3x value on his salary and he is a solid "3-star" GPP play because I suspect that most DFS players will avoid the Falcons altogether after this announcement.
Regarding Drew Brees, he catapults to a "4-star" GPP play with the news that he will be active against the leaky Cardinals secondary. Because most of the DFS content is created earlier in the week, the bulk of the DFS world will not react appropriately to this news and I expect Brees to go underowned in tournaments on Sunday. The Saints now boast the highest implied team total on the Vegas boards (30.3 points) with Brees back at the helm. Patrick Peterson will shadow Michael Thomas around the field, which makes Ted Ginn Jr a super-sneaky GPP option again because Brees brings a chemistry to the equation that did not exist with Bridgewater. Josh Hill, starting for the injured Jared Cook, also becomes more interesting for GPP contests. This news does not affect the running back situation in New Orleans, as it is a "high tide lifting all ships" situation.
2019 FORMAT:
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Philip Rivers | @CHI | $5,300 | 2% | - | «««« | Only CIN & ATL throw the ball more often. Love the %. |
Carson Wentz | @BUF | $5,600 | 2% | - | «««« | Plus gamescript. Stack with Goedert or Ertz. |
Sam Darnold | @JAX | $5,500 | 1% | - | «««« | Looking for a rebound game vs. Jags w/out Ramsey. |
Jared Goff | LONDON | $6,800 | 9% | - | ««« | Only issue is if Cinci can keep it remotely close? |
Russell Wilson | @SEA | $7,200 | 12% | Yes | ««« | ATL DBs are terrible and funnel action to pass. |
Deshaun Watson | OAK | $7,100 | 15% | Yes | «« | Ask Aaron Rodgers if big QB days are possible vs. OAK. |
Tom Brady | CLE | $6,600 | 7% | - | «« | Going overlooked after Sony's big MNF performance. |
Josh Allen | PHL | $6,500 | 4% | - | «« | Philly's poor DB play is creating a pass funnel defense. |
Ryan Tannehill | TB | $5,100 | 4% | - | « | Looked solid in last start. Gets soft secondary at home. |
Matthew Stafford | NYG | $6,100 | 8% | - | « | Could be asked to throw more often without Kerryon. |
Mitchell Trubisky | LAC | $4,900 | 2% | - | « | Just a few shares for Arob and potential shootout. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: If you haven't already read the "crazy week" segment in the Tips section of this article, you should--there is valuable information there about how you should handle the news that broke on Matt Ryan and Drew Brees late Saturday afternoon. Beyond what was written there, feel free to spend up at the quarterback position for your cash games this week. Both Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson are stellar plays who appear to have substantial scoring floors against their respective opponents. Wilson gets the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks than any team in the league and have allowed multiple passing touchdowns for five consecutive weeks. Watson's matchup looks just as juicy against the Raiders, who Aaron Rodgers lit up for nearly 50 fantasy points just last week; bolstering the case for Oakland is the fact that they are stout up front (11th DVOA against the rush), which tends to funnel action through air (30th DVOA versus the pass).
GPP: The Chargers are quietly throwing the ball on two-thirds of their offensive snaps, good enough for third-most in the league. Meanwhile, Philip Rivers is currently trending towards the lowest number of passing touchdowns in a season since he became a full-time starter in 2006. In short, Rivers is destined for positive scoring regression in the near future and given Melvin Gordon's struggles (2.3 yards per carry, 0 touchdowns) since returning from his holdout, that regression could come on Saturday against an overrated Bears defense that has allowed 60 points in their previous 2 games. I took some heat for talking about Sam Darnold on the PowerGrid this week, but the Jags defense will be without Jalen Ramsey (traded to the Rams) and three starting linebackers on Sunday, which should open up a lot of possibilities for the Jets offense; look for Darnold to live on short underneath passes to exploit those deficiencies. He will be underowned after his disastrous Monday Night Football performance against the Patriots and can be cheaply paired with any of his receivers. Even cheaper is Ryan Tannehill, who surprised with a 300+ yard performance in his first start of the year for the Titans last week in a win against the Chargers. Tannehill gets a softer secondary in the form of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have allowed 300+ passing yards and/or multiple passing touchdowns in every game this season since Week #1.
RUNNING BACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Tevin Coleman | CAR | $5,000 | 4% | Yes | «««« | Sharing less of the backfield touches each week. |
Saquon Barkley | @DET | $8,900 | 11% | - | «««« | Weather was the only thing that slowed him last Sunday. |
Marlon Mack | DEN | $6,100 | 7% | - | «««« | Scoring regression should be in his favor soon. |
Leonard Fournette | NYJ | $7,800 | 22% | - | ««« | Tough to ignore his volume, but needs to get in endzone. |
LeVeon Bell | @JAX | $6,900 | 14% | Yes | ««« | JAX: 27th DVOA rush defense missing multiple LBs. |
Todd Gurley | LONDON | $7,400 | 8% | - | ««« | Quietly getting volume. Favorable matchup & gamescript. |
Latavius Murray | ARZ | $5,800 | 12% | Yes | «« | If Kamara is inactive, a solid cash/GPP play vs. ARZ. |
Devonta Freeman | SEA | $5,500 | 12% | - | «« | Possibly asked to do more with Matty Ice injury? |
Sony Michel | CLE | $5,200 | 11% | Yes | «« | Gamescript suits his game, a la MNF vs. Jets in last. |
James White | CLE | $5,200 | 11% | - | «« | White could get 8+ targets while Sanu gets up to speed. |
Austin Ekeler | @CHI | $5,900 | 4% | - | «« | Could play quasi-WR role if Keenan Allen is inactive. |
Ty Johnson | NYG | $4,900 | 14% | - | « | Vegas projecting a gamescript that supports heavy usage. |
Jordan Howard | @BUF | $4,600 | 1% | - | « | A few shares to cover heavy redzone usage. |
Carlos Hyde | OAK | $4,700 | 9% | - | « | Tough sledding vs. OAK, but price/volume are right. |
Christian McCaffrey | @SF | $9,200 | 18% | - | « | True test of what Mr. Everything can do vs. SF defense. |
Derrick Henry | TB | $6,000 | 12% | - | « | TB's top-ranked DVOA rush defense argues to avoid DH. |
Chris Carson | @ATL | $7,000 | 24% | - | « | Calculated fade. Heavier exposure to SEA passing game. |
RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:
CASH: LeVeon Bell is the top cash game running back this week when he takes on the Jaguars' depleted defense (see above for details). Bell has yet to surpass 100 rushing yards yet this season, but his opponents over the last month include some stellar defenses including Dallas, Philadelphia, and New England (twice); this week, he gets Jacksonville's hobbled 27th-ranked DVOA rush defense, which should be enough to break his recent funk. In Foxborough, Sony Michel looks primed to stay hot against the Cleveland Browns as 11-point home favorites; this type of game typically sets up well for Michel to chew clock in the second half and if he scores just one touchdown, you are well on your way to reaching value at his modest $5.2K salary. Tevin Coleman is a reach for a cash game play based solely on projections, but I feel strongly enough about his fantasy prospects that I am advocating him in cash game formats against the Panthers on Sunday. Since returning from injury in Week #5, Coleman has 16, 20, and 22 touches, respectively; it seems that Head Coach Kyle Shanahan's relationship with Coleman in Atlanta has carried over into the Bay area and is resulting in less Matt Breida, more Coleman. And Coleman brings upside to your lineups, too, as evidenced by his 15 redzone touches in the past 3 games (versus only 3 to all other SF running backs combined).
GPP: Last week, I rostered Saquon Barkley in 40% of my DraftKings lineups, only to have overlooked the severity of weather conditions at the Meadowlands. Barkley had an injury scare, but finished the day with an 18/72/1 stat line, which was far less than needed for tournaments, but respectable given the field conditions in rainy northern New Jersey. This week, Barkley returns as a 4-star GPP play against the Lions' 21st-ranked DVOA rush defense that has yielded the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to his position. At present, our Steve Buzzard has Barkley projected on only ~ 15% of tournament rosters, which is too few considering his every-down role, matchup, and overall ability. In Indy, my friend Ryan Hester (author of Trendspotting) made a strong case for Marlon Mack on this week's episode of the PowerGrid. In short, the Colts are a run-first team, but the bulk of their scoring is coming via the pass, which is not sustainable over the long-term. Look for Mack to get more involved in the Colts' scoring against a Broncos defense that encourages opponents to run against them. In London, do not be afraid to go over the field on Todd Gurley's ownership against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals. Gurley has grown a reputation as a poor DFS play, but his team has the second-highest team total on the boards and the Rams should be feeding Gurley often in the second half of their game against the winless Bengals, who field the league's 28th DVOA rush defense.
WIDE RECEIVERS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
DK Metcalf | @ATL | $5,000 | 9% | - | «««« | Going back to the well. Career-high 9 targets in last. |
Mike Williams | @CHI | $4,000 | 3% | Yes | «««« | Airyards and Keenan's absence support a big day. |
Robert Woods | LONDON | $6,300 | 6% | - | «««« | Positive scoring regression is imminent. Great spot. |
Demaryius Thomas | @JAX | $3,300 | 1% | Yes | ««« | Led team in targets last week. Salary-saver w/upside. |
Golden Tate | @DET | $5,800 | 3% | - | ««« | Revenge narrative vs. former team. 20 targets in past 2. |
Kenny Golladay | NYG | $6,400 | 11% | - | ««« | Forget last week & get 15+% vs. this secondary. |
Tyler Lockett | @ATL | $7,000 | 15% | - | ««« | Falcons secondary has no answer for him (or Metcalf). |
Mike Evans | @TEN | $6,600 | 7% | - | ««« | Price and likely ownership are appealing for GPPs. |
Geremy Davis | @CHI | $3,000 | 1% | - | ««« | Large-field differentiator. Should play WR2 role. |
DeAndre Hopkins | OAK | $8,100 | 21% | - | «« | Always in play. Returned to norm w/out Fuller in last. |
Jamison Crowder | @JAX | $4,800 | 2% | - | «« | Alternative to Demaryius Thomas for Darnold stacks. |
Emmanuel Sanders | CAR | $4,600 | 2% | - | «« | Reports state that Manny will see plenty of action. |
Alex Erickson | LONDON | $3,700 | 3% | - | «« | Trying to usurp WR2 role from Tate. 14 targets in last. |
John Brown | PHL | $5,900 | 9% | - | «« | Big play receiver has too much speed for Birds' DBs. |
Julian Edelman | CLE | $6,900 | 8% | - | «« | Smash spot for crafty WR before Sanu settles in. |
Courtland Sutton | @IND | $5,300 | 12% | Yes | «« | Should get extra attention w/out Sanders on the field. |
Cole Beasley | PHL | $4,200 | 3% | - | «« | Scored in last and could do so again at fair price. |
DaeSean Hamilton | @IND | $3,300 | 3% | - | «« | Absorbs WR2 role after Sanders to SF trade. Cheap. |
Brandin Cooks | LONDON | $5,700 | 7% | - | «« | Like Woods, scoreless for 5 weeks. Regression coming. |
Allen Robinson | LAC | $6,000 | 8% | - | «« | Gets Hayward shadow, but still Trubisky's fave target. |
Phillip Dorsett | CLE | $4,200 | 7% | - | «« | Sneaky pivot from Edelman. Possible double-stack? |
Alshon Jeffery | @BUF | $5,200 | 3% | - | «« | Highly targeted before Dallas shut him down last week. |
Corey Davis | TB | $4,400 | 3% | - | «« | If he has upside, TB's secondary will reveal it. |
A.J. Brown | TB | $4,100 | 7% | - | «« | Have seen flashes of brilliance earlier. Plush matchup. |
Keke Coutee | OAK | $4,100 | 7% | - | «« | Plenty of snaps with Fuller inactive again. Nice price. |
Robby Anderson | @JAX | $4,900 | 2% | - | «« | Jamison alternative. Airyards support incoming big game. |
Chris Godwin | @TEN | $7,100 | 10% | - | « | Tough spot for hot receiver. Taking discount w/Evans. |
Dede Westbrook | NYJ | $4,500 | 7% | Yes | « | Broke out w/100-yards in last. Scoreless since Week 1. |
Cooper Kupp | LONDON | $7,500 | 11% | - | « | Quiet of late, but should not be ignored vs. CIN. |
Jarvis Landry | @NE | $4,800 | 3% | - | « | If Belichick focues on OBJ, his targets should benefit. |
Calvin Ridley | SEA | $5,600 | 8% | - | « | Sanu trade can only bolster opportunity. |
Larry Fitzgerald | @NO | $5,400 | 4% | - | « | Veteran is in mid-season form--slowing down. |
Tyler Boyd | LONDON | $5,100 | 13% | - | « | Targets will be there, but gets Jalen shadow in London. |
Anthony Miller | LAC | $3,500 | 1% | - | « | Overflow targets from Hayward-ARob shadow? Sneaky. |
Chris Conley | NYJ | $3,300 | 1% | - | « | Getting plenty of snaps, but targets are hit-or-miss. |
D.J. Chark | NYJ | $6,000 | 4% | - | « | Slight fade as Westy gets more attention from Minshew. |
Marvin Jones | NYG | $5,800 | 7% | - | « | Putting extra shares on Golladay off Jones' last week. |
Kenny Stills | OAK | $4,700 | 15% | - | « | Speedster has upside vs. porous OAK secondary. |
T.Y. Hilton | DEN | $6,100 | 12% | - | « | Banking on 'Mack Attack,' so slight fade on T.Y. here. |
Julio Jones | SEA | $7,700 | 14% | - | « | With Schaub under center, have to go under field. |
Michael Thomas | ARZ | $8,000 | 22% | Yes | « | Late-breaking Brees news bumps him up to 3-stars. |
WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:
CASH: It is tough to justify spending up for cash game wide receiver options this week, although Michael Thomas is the exception now that we know Drew Brees will be active. Some will be scared away by the expected Patrick Peterson shadow, but the Saints have always done an excellent job at scheming to get Thomas open in space and nobody has better accuracy than Brees, so Thomas is firmly in play if you have the excess salary. If salary is limited, however, look to names like Courtland Sutton, Demaryius Thomas, and Mike Williams. Sutton and Williams will take on the role of WR1 for their respective offenses after Emmanuel Sanders was traded and Keenan Allen is expected to miss Sunday's contest; of the two, Williams is the more attractive tournament option because of how the Chargers have committed to passing the ball this season. As a low-dollar punt option, you can do worse than rolling with Demaryius Thomas, who has nine targets in two of his previous three games. At $3.3K, Thomas needs only a 5/50/0 stat line to deliver cash game value; a touchdown would easily surpass those expectations and is not an unreasonable expectation against a Jags defense going in the wrong direction.
GPP: Full disclosure: DK Metcalf's lackluster 4/53/0 stat line against the Ravens probably cost me high five figures last week. After Aaron Rodgers killed it in the early games, I had multiple "live" lineups with DK Metcalf (I rostered him in 30% of my total GPP lineups) to seal the deal; alas, Metcalf finished the day with a career-high nine targets, but was unable to break the big play and/or score a touchdown to bring home the bacon. In DFS, we need to have short memories and that is why Metcalf rests atop the GPP selections for wide receivers again this week. He gets an even softer matchup against the Falcons' pedestrian secondary, one that he out-sizes, out-speeds, and generally out-classes at a discounted salary and ownership from stablemate, Tyler Lockett. In Michigan, Kenny Golladay is poised for a bounce-back performance against the Giants' diminutive secondary, one that has allowed 23+ DK points to opposing wide receivers on five different occasions this season; inside the redzone, Golladay has at least a five-inch height advantage on every one of the Giants' defensive backs. At a deep GPP differentiator, Anthony Miller is an intriguing option at expected 1% ownership on a week where Allen Robinson will contend with Casey Hayward and given that Miller has gone under the radar with 16 targets over the Bears' previous pair of games.
TIGHT ENDS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Gerald Everett | LONDON | $4,300 | 4% | - | «««« | Collected double-digit targets in 2 of past 3 games. |
Hunter Henry | @CHI | $4,900 | 9% | Yes | «««« | Primary beneficiary of Keenan's absence. Volume. |
Zach Ertz | @BUF | $5,100 | 10% | - | «««« | Had 3x 100-yard games by this time last year. |
George Kittle | CAR | $6,500 | 9% | - | ««« | #1 receiver for SF is less than 10% owned? Get some. |
Jonnu Smith | TB | $2,800 | 2% | - | ««« | TB: 2nd worst defense (FPs/game allowed) to tight ends. |
Dallas Goedert | @BUF | $2,800 | 4% | Yes | ««« | Outscored Ertz in 3 of previous 4 games. Salary-saver. |
Austin Hooper | SEA | $5,500 | 16% | - | «« | Sanu trade can only help him, if that's possible? |
Eric Ebron | DEN | $3,400 | 2% | - | «« | Bigger bump if Jack Doyle is inactive. Verify on Sunday. |
Cameron Brate | @TEN | $2,700 | 2% | - | « | Gets the nod with O.J. Howard being out. Cheap GPP punt. |
Greg Olsen | @SF | $3,700 | 5% | Yes | « | Tough matchup, but decent scoring floor for salary. |
Josh Hill | ARZ | $3,200 | 1% | - | « | A few % at low ownership against TE-susceptible defense. |
Ricky Seals-Jones | @NE | $3,100 | 1% | - | « | NE defense will overlook him to cover OBJ and Jarvis. |
Evan Engram | @DET | $5,300 | 11% | - | « | Quiet of late, but still in play w/Shepard missing time. |
Darren Waller | @HOU | $5,900 | 20% | - | « | Loved him in last, but much tougher matchup vs. HOU. |
TIGHT END TIDBITS:
CASH: The optimal cash and GPP play at the tight end position this week is Hunter Henry, who has exploded for 14/197/2 over his first pair of games since returning from injury in Week #6. Henry has (obviously) been heavily used in those contests and nothing should change against the Bears on Sunday because Keenan Allen's 10+ targets per game will need to be redistributed to other receivers. After Henry, the relative risk feels substantial, although Dallas Goedert and Greg Olsen are both reasonable cash game options based on our current projections. Olsen is reasonably priced at $3.7K, but faces a 49er defense that has not faced a tight end of his ilk for the entire season. Goedert has surprisingly outscored his teammate, Zach Ertz, in three of the Eagles' previous four contests and is offered up at a discounted $2.8K.
GPP: Gerald Everett raised my eyebrows when he rose to the top of my GPP rankings earlier today, but he has 34 targets over the past month and matches up against the Bengals, who have yielded 61% more fantasy production to the position than league-adjusted defenses. If he ends up on only 6% of rosters, as our ownership projections suggest, it will have been too low. While Dallas Goedert was discussed as a cash game option (above), Zach Ertz is a sharp play in tournament formats simply because he is destined to rebound from his terrible 2019 campaign. The Eagles have not changed much in their offensive personnel and Ertz entered this season having scored 0.5 touchdowns per game over the previous 2 years; entering Sunday's matchup against the Bills, Ertz is trending towards only 2 touchdowns on the season, which is absurdly low given his historical success in this offense. As for the "1-star" plays at the position, the advice is to take just a few percent of each for various game strategy-based reasons.
TEAM DEFENSES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Saints | ARZ | $3,500 | 6% | - | «««« | Love everything about this spot for the Saints. |
Patriots | CLE | $4,300 | 6% | Yes | ««« | Best fantasy defense to date gets another soft matchup. |
Titans | TB | $3,200 | 4% | - | ««« | Defenses playing TB average 4th most FPs/game in 2019. |
Rams | LONDON | $3,800 | 7% | Yes | ««« | Rams add Ramsey while Cinci's offense implodes. |
49ers | CAR | $3,700 | 3% | - | «« | Betting against CMC in this one. Kyle Allen in trouble. |
Colts | DEN | $2,900 | 6% | - | «« | Flacco loses a big receiver and goes on the road. |
Seahawks | @ATL | $2,800 | 4% | - | «« | Matt Ryan is hobbled, at best…out, at worst. |
Texans | OAK | $2,700 | 3% | - | «« | J.J. Watt will make Derek Carr sweat throughout. |
Chargers | @CHI | $2,300 | 4% | - | «« | Banged up defense may still have enough vs. Trubisky. |
Broncos | @IND | $2,100 | 3% | - | «« | Solid defensive unit keeping the Broncos relevant. |
Bills | PHL | $3,000 | 3% | - | « | Eagles offense struggling. Bills looking to go 7-1. |
Giants | @DET | $2,200 | 2% | - | « | Cheap flyer for roster differentiation. |
Eagles | @BUF | $2,700 | 4% | - | « | Josh Allen can always get reckless and force plays. |
Bears | LAC | $3,600 | 3% | - | « | Small piece, but has not looked good recently. |
Lions | NYG | $2,800 | 7% | - | « | Daniel Jones has not done much of late. A few percent. |
Panthers | @SF | $2,400 | 4% | - | « | Strong secondary has big-play potential vs. timid QB. |
Jaguars | NYJ | $2,900 | 11% | « | Crowd fave. Suspect the Jets show up for this one.l |
TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:
CASH: The Patriots and Rams are the class of team defenses this week for cash game purposes. The Patriots have mashed through a series of substandard opponents this season and now get the disappointing Browns, led by Baker Mayfield, who has thrown 11 interceptions versus only 5 touchdowns this season; we should fully expect Bill Belichick to give Mayfield yet another lesson on football this weekend. In London, the Rams should have zero difficulties shutting down another AFC North team, the Bengals, whose offense seems to only perform in garbage time late in the game. The addition of Jalen Ramsey to this team will only serve to shore up one of the few deficiencies on the defense and it would not be surprising to see Aaron Donald and company walk all over the Bengals.
GPP: The New Orleans Saints held the Dallas Cowboys to only 10 points just a few week ago and now get to host an Arizona Cardinals squad that is trending in the wrong direction on a week that Drew Brees returns from injury. The home field crowd will be fired up and it is going to be a difficult environment for a rookie quarterback (Kyler Murray) without his best player (David Johnson) to try be competitive. This game could get ugly in the later stages and there is a strong chance that New Orleans scores a defensive touchdown. Elsewhere, do not sleep on the Titans at home against Jameis Winston, whose reckless ways can lead to defensive scores in an instant or the 49ers (also at home) against Kyle Allen, whose offense does not match up well against the 49ers' stellar defense.