the sharp report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris’ bets and eroded his edge; daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players usually have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest, the sharp players’ lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry’s smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report’s goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as This Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font, and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
Throughout the 2018 season, The Sharp Report analyzed contests filled with the best players in NFL DFS. These "sharps," as they are commonly called, typically agree on a handful of players as the best, or sharpest, players on the slate. The goal of The Sharp Report is to identify trends in the decision-making processes of the best NFL DFS players. We all can subsequently incorporate these trends and data points in our lineup-building process each week, in an effort to build sharper, more profitable lineups.
At the end of each weekly iteration of The Sharp Report, one player is listed as the sharp play of the week. The goal here is to forecast which player most of the best NFL DFS players agree is essential to building a profitable cash lineup. The strongest (and easiest) signal of whether or not a player is a strong selection is the player's ownership level in the highest-stakes contests. The sharpest DFS players typically fill the high-stakes lobbies because of the sizeable bankrolls their DFS successes afford them. Of course, rostering a lineup full of sharp players will not directly turn a profit in DFS, the results matter as well. Each week throughout the season, the success or failure of each previous sharp play is documented.
2018 results
Throughout the 2018 season, the weekly sharp play:
- was rostered by 52.17 percent of sharp players in high-stakes cash games, on average.
- scored 2.314 points-per-dollar on FanDuel. A full lineup at that value would score an impressive 141.84 points.
- scored 3.13 points-per-dollar on DraftKings. A full lineup at that value would register 156.57 points.
- topped-out at 86.7 percent-rostered in week 6 when Jameis Winston scored 32.9 FanDuel points and 35.9 DraftKings points at a cost of just $7,400 and $5,800 on each site, respectively.
- bottomed-out at 0.0 percent-rostered in week 2 when Christian McCaffrey scored 20.9 FanDuel points and 30.9 DraftKings points for $7,400 on FanDuel and $7,000 on DraftKings.
and finally,
- proved to be a great place to start when constructing a sharp cash lineup.
Before week one, there is no useful contest data from last week to analyze in this space. However, utilizing the data and trends compiled throughout last season, forecasting the sharp play(s) of 2019's opening slate will be far more manageable.
In lieu of the lineup analysis section of the first Sharp Report of the year, a second sharp play will be added to the article by Saturday afternoon when the first is edited according to the most up-to-date information and data.
Next week's sharp play #1
Running back Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings, FanDuel price: $7,400, DraftKings price: $6,000
The Minnesota Vikings will play host to the Atlanta Falcons to open the 2019 season, and the betting market has the home team pegged as four-point favorites in the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium. Throughout the 2018 season, Dalvin Cook contributed to five Vikings victories. Across those 5 games, Cook averaged 15.88 FanDuel points and 18.22 DraftKings points per game. Additionally, the team relieved offensive coordinator John DeFilippo of his coaching duties following a week 14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. In his place, Kevin Stefanski was appointed as the offense's new play-caller with explicit instructions to run the ball more frequently and more efficiently. Over the final 3 games of the season, Dalvin Cook posted 19, 16, and 11 rushing attempts, respectively. The meager 11 rushing attempts from week 17 came in a 24-10 loss at the hands of the Bears that had the Vikings playing catch-up from the onset of the game.
Dalvin Cook projects to be the Minnesota Vikings' bell-cow throughout the 2019 season. In the modern NFL, true bell-cow running backs are extremely tough to come by, but Cook truly possesses the well-rounded skillset required of a three-down running back. Cook projects for one of the largest workloads on the slate and the production should follow. FootballGuys' own David Dodds projects Dalvin Cook to finish as the number 1 running back on DraftKings and the number 4 running back on FanDuel according to h-value. In short, h-value is a more advanced way to evaluate the value provided by a player at his specific price, developed in part by FootballGuys' own Dan Hindery. For a more in-depth explanation on h-value, click here.
Next week's sharp play #2
Wide receiver Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks, FanDuel price: $6,800 ,DraftKings price: $6,000
Tyler Lockett is poised to immediately assume the number-one spot at wide receiver this season following the retirement of Doug Baldwin. The Seattle Seahawks attempted to address their lack of depth at wide receiver by drafting D.K. Metcalf early in the 2019 draft, but by most accounts he is still a work in progress. While Metcalf may have the physical tools that typically lead to NFL success, the finer points in his game still need refining, which will likely prevent him from becoming a legitimate number-one NFL wide receiver in the early days of his career. Throughout 2018, Tyler Lockett proved to have impressive chemistry with quarterback Russell Wilson, as the two combined for one of the most efficient quarterback-wide receiver seasons in recent memory. As the team's unquestioned top-dog in the wide receiver's room, Tyler Lockett's outlook for the 2019 season is bright.
In week one, Lockett and the Seahawks take on the Cincinnati Bengals at home. Seattle is favored in the game by 10 points, according to Pinnacle, with an implied team total of 27; one of the highest totals on the entire slate. Tyler Lockett will likely see an increase in volume throughout the 2018 season without Doug Baldwin's presence in the passing game, which certainly bodes well for his fantasy viability. Even if this increased volume and sample size leads to a drop in efficiency from 2018's near-historic levels, Lockett should still rank amongst the NFL's most efficient aerial threats. At just $6,000 on DraftKings and $6,800 on FanDuel, Lockett is far too cheap for his expected involvement in Seattle's offense. Build cash teams around Dalvin Cook and Tyler Lockett with confidence in week one, as many of the sharpest DFS players will likely do the same.
If you have any questions, comments, or concerns about this article feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @ThaGreatZambino and I'll be sure to reply as soon as I possibly can