On July 27th, six members of the Footballguys staff, along with six highly regarded writers in the fantasy football community, got together to complete a 12-team, 20 round draft using the Footballguys Players Championship format. Before the draft, each of the participants answered questions regarding strategies, players they coveted and how they plan to attack the draft. Additional questions were asked after the draft based on the decisions they made. To top it off, Footballguys' Devin Knotts will provide an evaluation of each team's roster strengths and weaknesses, chronicling the strategies and decisions that were made by each participant.
The goal of this article is to give you a look into the minds of fantasy experts throughout the entire draft process. This includes preparation, decision-making, execution, and follow-up. What was their plan? Did they follow it? Why did they make the decisions they made? Some drafters had similar strategies and players of interest, but how they executed their plan and built their roster, varied from person to person.
We hope you will uncover or discover a strategy that might work for you in your draft(s) this year. Learn what players the experts are targeting and why. At Footballguys, when you win, we win! If we can help give you the tools and know-how to build a winning team, we've done our job.
LEAGUE PARAMETERS
- 12 teams
- 20 roster spots
- Starting Lineup
- 1 quarterback
- 2 running backs
- 2 wide receivers
- 1 tight end
- 2 flex (either a running back, wide receiver, or tight end)
- 1 Defense
- 1 Kicker
LEAGUE SCORING
- Offensive Players Only
- 4 points - Passing Touchdown
- 6 points - Rushing/Receiving Touchdown
- 0.05 points - Passing Yard
- 0.1 points - Rushing/Receiving Yard
- 1.0 point - Reception (QB, RB, WR)
- 1.5 point - Reception (TE)
- -1 - Interception Thrown
- 2 - Two-Point Conversion (rush, pass or receive)
- 3 - Length of field goal made 0-29 yards
- 3 - Length of field goal made 30 yards and then 0.1 for every 1 yard after 30.
- 6 - Offensive recovery for Touchdown
- 6 - Number of Defensive and Special Teams Touchdowns
- Defense scoring
- 2 points - fumble recovery
- 2 points - interception caught
- 1 point - sacked quarterback
- 5 points - safety
- 12 points - 0 points allowed
- 8 points - 1-6 points allowed
- 5 points - 7-10 points allowed
- 0 points - 11-99 points allowed
- 6 points - Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown
DRAFT PARTICIPANTS
- Alex Miglio, Footballguys
- Michelle Magdziuk, Ball Blast Podcast
- Scott Bischoff, Footballguys
- Dan Hindery, Footballguys
- Kate Magdziuk, Ball Blast Podcast
- Dan Clasgens, Sirius XM Fantasy
- Russell Clay, Fantasy Guru
- B.J. Vanderwoude, Footballguys
- Chad Parsons, Footballguys
- Justin Howe, Footballguys
- Jen Ryan, Football Diehards
- Pat Fitzmaurice, TheFootballgirl.com
DRAFT GRID
DRAFT SLOT 1
Alex Miglio, Footballguys, Bio
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Discuss drafting from the 1-hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
It's likely drafting at the top of the draft means I will be taking running backs in two of the first three rounds, depending on who is available of course. My No. 1 player this year is Ezekiel Elliott, and he is one of several running backs at the top of most draft boards. I will also look to start positional runs instead of getting stuck with scraps at the end of one.
2. How will the dual-flex and tight end 1.5 PPR scoring format change how you approach this draft?
Unless something ridiculous like Travis Kelce falling to me in the second round happens, I will probably not be taking a tight end in the first few rounds. There are only three guys worth taking so early, even with the scoring bump. The second flex gives me some flexibility if people jump on the tight end position or start gobbling up running backs in the middle rounds. I will play off what the rest of the league is doing to fill those slots.
3. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
It's tough to target specific players ahead of an entire draft because you never know what might happen. Aside from Zeke, though, I like the value that guys like Allen Robinson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Albert Wilson typically present
4. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)
If we are closing out a tier at any position that I am targeting, yes I do have triggers. Whether that means that I pivot to another position if the tier dried up or I snag one of the last guys in that tier, there is always a plan leading up to my picks. More broadly, though, I don't tend to lock in on players during drafts. Everything is fluid.
5. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
If a rookie has a clear path to start, he is probably going to be overvalued. Sometimes it works out -- think Saquon Barkley -- but most of the time high-cost rookies tend to underperform. I try to look out for high-upside rookies who may not be starting but have a good shot to be on the field often. That goes especially for rookies on bad teams who may ascend to a starting roster spot earlier than they would on a good squad. As for injured or suspended players, their risk is typically baked into their ADP, so the cost is pretty fair. I won't necessarily avoid injured players unless they have a long comeback trail or have had multiple injuries in recent years.
6. What is your strategy for drafting a Defense/ST and kicker for this league?
As always, I am going to wait until the last few rounds to draft these positions. Especially in a non-best-ball league, where I will be streaming these positions most of the year.
7. Name five players you are targeting in the later rounds?
Albert Wilson, Malcolm Brown, Hakeem Butler, Duke Johnson Jr, and Lamar Jackson are some of my favorites.
DRAFT SELECTIONS
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.01
|
1
|
RB
|
DAL
|
|
2.12
|
24
|
TE
|
SFO
|
|
3.01
|
25
|
RB
|
Melvin Gordon
|
LAC
|
4.12
|
48
|
WR
|
DET
|
|
5.01
|
49
|
WR
|
SEA
|
|
6.12
|
72
|
WR
|
ARI
|
|
7.01
|
73
|
RB
|
MIA
|
|
8.12
|
96
|
QB
|
GBP
|
|
9.01
|
97
|
WR
|
NYG
|
|
10.12
|
120
|
TE
|
MIN
|
|
11.01
|
121
|
WR
|
CHI
|
|
12.12
|
144
|
RB
|
CLE
|
|
13.01
|
145
|
TE
|
WAS
|
|
14.12
|
168
|
QB
|
DAL
|
|
15.01
|
169
|
RB
|
DET
|
|
16.12
|
192
|
RB
|
LAR
|
|
17.01
|
193
|
WR
|
TEN
|
|
18.12
|
216
|
WR
|
WAS
|
|
19.01
|
217
|
PK
|
NOS
|
|
20.12
|
240
|
Def
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
KCC
|
POST-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Holdouts and suspensions did not deter you from drafting specific players, namely Ezekiel Elliott 1.01, Melvin Gordon 3.01, and Golden Tate 9.01. Explain how these decisions can make or break you. What are your expectations for these players this season?
Zeke is my top player, and I'm not going to let a little holdout talk change my mind about that. Not yet, anyway. If he's still holding out mid-August, the pick would have been someone else. For now, though, I think most -- if not all -- holdouts will be reporting sooner than later. Hence, Gordon was a steal. He is normally a top-12 pick! As for Tate, I don't mind him in the ninth round as a bench player because he can contribute once we start hitting byes, and he is the de facto No. 1 receiver in New York. Someone's going to have to get targets!
2. You drafted Larry Fitzgerald with pick 6.12 (WR32). With all the attention on Christian Kirk and Kyler Murray, how does that affect Fitzgerald? Share your outlook for Fitzgerald this season.
I'm bullish on the Cardinals offense with Murray under center. How long has it been since Fitzgerald has had a quality quarterback throwing him the ball? He may be getting a bit long in the tooth, but Fitz is still a great player who will see a ton of targets in a much-improved offense. He has a high floor with the potential for a Top 15 fantasy finish at receiver, which makes him a great WR3 in my book.
Devin Knotts' EVALUATION
Strengths
Alex’s team did a tremendous job finding value early in the draft as he was able to get the steal of the draft in George Kittle at the end of the second round. After Kittle, he loaded up with value at the wide receiver in upside players with Tyler Lockett and Kenny Golladay. Alex also has the strongest tight end group in the league as he was able to supplement George Kittle with Jordan Reed and Kyle Rudolph likely indicating that he is planning on utilizing a tight end at the flex position.
Weaknesses
When spending two of your top three picks at the running back position, it is difficult to call the running back position a weakness, but with Melvin Gordon’s pending holdout, Alex’s second running back is in extreme question. With rumors that Kalen Ballage is potentially going to overtake Kenyan Drake, this could be a situation where Alex is struggling to get consistency out of the running back position.
How He’ll Win It All
As time continues to progress, the likelihood that Melvin Gordon will miss time in Los Angeles gets increasingly higher. For Alex to win this league, he will need either the Gordon situation to be resolved, or find a consistent producer at the running back position. Surviving the early weeks will be critical for Alex as Golden Tate faces suspension and with Gordon potentially out, he will have some tough choices in the first few weeks.
DRAFT SLOT 2
Michelle Magdziuk, Ball Blast Podcast
Michelle currently works as a nursing recruiter in Pittsburgh, PA. She has played fantasy football since she was 8 years old and decided it's finally time to share her knowledge. She's also a co-host of the BallBlast Podcast.
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Discuss drafting from the 2-hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
In the 2nd spot, I plan to draft a studly RB and hopefully a 2nd very good RB in the 2nd round, while grabbing a very solid WR in the 3rd. With 2 great RBs to start, that will give me a ton of flexibility to draft any way I want the rest of the draft.
2. How will the dual-flex and tight end 1.5 PPR scoring format change how you approach this draft?
It isn't going to change my approach at all. I like going after the TEs going int he 5-6th round (Howard, Engram, Henry). If I don't get one of them being towards the turn, I am okay just waiting to draft a couple of older tight ends later in the draft.
3. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
Zeke/CMC will be my first-round pick. I am hoping to Hilton or Thielen as my WR1 in the 3rd round. I am happy with that.
4. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)
If 2 out of Howard, Engram, Henry are gone, I would take the 3rd guy if I had the pick. If 2 out of Christian Kirk, Robby Anderson, and Pettis were gone - I would choose the 3rd. Same with Kyler, Murray, Cam Newton, Josh Allen.
5. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
No rookie WRs. Hunt is not draftable. I am okay taking RBs in RBBC.
6. What is your strategy for drafting a Defense/ST and kicker for this league?
Wait until 2nd to last round for Def, last round for Kicker. I look at the early part of the schedule for Def.
7. Name five players you are targeting in the later rounds?
D'Onta Foreman, Curtis Samuel, Jimmy Graham, John Brown, Mark Andrews.
DRAFT SELECTIONS
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.02
|
2
|
RB
|
CAR
|
|
2.11
|
23
|
RB
|
MIN
|
|
3.02
|
26
|
RB
|
DET
|
|
4.11
|
47
|
WR
|
NEP
|
|
5.02
|
50
|
TE
|
LAC
|
|
6.11
|
71
|
RB
|
SFO
|
|
7.02
|
74
|
WR
|
SFO
|
|
8.11
|
95
|
WR
|
JAC
|
|
9.02
|
98
|
QB
|
CAR
|
|
10.11
|
119
|
RB
|
BUF
|
|
11.02
|
122
|
RB
|
DOnta Foreman
|
IND
|
12.11
|
143
|
WR
|
NEP
|
|
13.02
|
146
|
WR
|
DAL
|
|
14.11
|
167
|
TE
|
CAR
|
|
15.02
|
170
|
WR
|
CLE
|
|
16.11
|
191
|
Def
|
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
JAC
|
17.02
|
194
|
QB
|
CIN
|
|
18.11
|
215
|
RB
|
KCC
|
|
19.02
|
218
|
WR
|
WAS
|
|
20.11
|
239
|
PK
|
WAS
|
POST-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. You selected three running backs to begin the draft (McCaffrey 1.02, Dalvin Cook 2.11, and then Kerryon Johnson at 3.02. What made you go this route to begin the draft, especially Johnson in the third round and not a wide receiver like you planned?
I like a LOT of WRs later- For example Chris Godwin, Christian Kirk, Robby Anderson, Dante Pettis, Curtis Samuel, and John Brown. Kerryon Johnson will always be my 3rd round pick if he falls to me there. I would have gone with a wide receiver if Johnson was taken before me but I think he is a top 10 running back this year. It is so much easier to replace receivers on the waivers than it is running backs. I would prefer to go 2 RBs than 1 WR but if value comes to me, I will take.
2. I'm curious why you said you tend to shy away from drafting rookie wide receivers. One, is this only in this format? Two, what's your reasoning behind that strategy.
Almost always, rookie wide receivers do not start producing until mid-season. At that point, you already dropped them. In the late rounds when others are taking rookie receivers, I want to take guys that I know will produce. For example, Weeks 1 & 2, we will see if Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be the WR2 on Green Bay. We'll also see if Donte Moncrief will be the WR2 for Pittsburgh. Is Kalen Ballage being used as a lead back? I want to know right away, because I need to drop guys and pick up others off the waiver wire. I USE WAIVERS EVERY WEEK. That rookie receiver that is slowly learning the NFL is going to be dropped before he ever starts producing.
DEVIN KNOTT'S EVALUATION
Strengths
Michelle went with a running back heavy approach to start the draft and got herself 4 of the top 29 running backs in this draft indicating she is planning on utilizing a four running back strategy in the Flex positions. Michelle also did a tremendous job going out and grabbing a tight top end at a value as in the 1.5 PPR league, getting Hunter Henry was a steal in this draft.
Weaknesses
Depth at wide receiver. Michelle took some bold chances in this draft by taking some high upside, low floor receivers ahead of their average draft position in Dede Westbrook in the 8th, Josh Gordon in the 12th round, and Antonio Callaway in the 15th. All three are extremely talented players but have been inconsistent throughout their careers.
How She’ll Win It All
If Michelle can get enough production out of her second-wide receiver she has a chance in this league. Josh Gordon’s pending reinstatement hearing will be a big outcome for her if Gordon is deemed eligible to play early on in the season. If Gordon is out for the year, relying on Westbrook and a bunch of waiver wire type players will make it difficult for Michelle.
DRAFT SLOT 3
Scott Bischoff, Footballguys, Bio
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Discuss drafting from the 3-hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
There is little to think about in terms of the first pick as it will be a running back. I am hoping that a running back falls to me in the second round (perhaps Todd Gurley), but I am open to taking a wide receiver or tight end in Round 2. I will have to pay attention to how the two teams drafting in front of me are putting their rosters together, and I hope to be able to exploit what they are doing to my advantage. For example, if I am looking at quarterback in the middle of the draft, I will check out their rosters to see if they have taken one yet. If so, I can pass in the even rounds, extracting value and grabbing the player I would have drafted anyway, just a touch later.
2. How will the dual-flex and tight end 1.5 PPR scoring format change how you approach this draft?
The tight end scoring will force me to prioritize the position and grab a stable group of pass-catching tight ends. If I miss on the position early, I will have to take multiple tight ends in the middle of the draft to ensure that I have some stability, and I may have to reach on tight ends that I like. The dual-flex system means I will likely be selecting only two players at the quarterback, kicker and team defense position, leaving 14 players at running back, wide receiver and tight end.
3. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
I like Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers in Round 9, but the quarterback position is fluid and is dependent on what others in the league are doing. I like Lions running back Kerryon Johnson but will have to reach a touch in Round 3 as I do not think he will fall to me in the fourth round. Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (Round 4) and Packers wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Round 9) are players I would like to build around.
4. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)
I suppose I only have that approach when it comes to the quarterback position. I will start paying attention to the position when most owners already have a starting quarterback.
5. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
It is tough to count on rookies to produce at a high rate so I generally will not draft them into starting positions on my roster. When it comes to injured/suspended/players holding out, I take it on a case-by-case basis. I will reach on this type of player if he can be a productive player right away, but that also means I will have to adjust on the fly and make sure I can survive at the position until the player returns. For example, Chargers running back Melvin Gordon is holding out, and there is no clarity on when he will return to the team. I would select Gordon in this format, but that also means I will prioritize the selection of Chargers running backs Austin Akeler and Justin Jackson, jumping on them earlier than normal.
6. What is your strategy for drafting a Defense/ST and kicker for this league?
I am waiting until the last rounds for defense and kicker. Generally, I am looking at a defense that has good pass rushers and a kicker that plays indoors.
7. Name five players you are targeting in the later rounds?
Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, Texans wide receiver Keke Coutee, and Patriots tight end Ben Watson.
DRAFT SELECTIONS
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.03
|
3
|
RB
|
NYG
|
|
2.10
|
22
|
RB
|
KCC
|
|
3.03
|
27
|
WR
|
MIN
|
|
4.10
|
46
|
WR
|
TBB
|
|
5.03
|
51
|
RB
|
SEA
|
|
6.10
|
70
|
TE
|
ATL
|
|
7.03
|
75
|
RB
|
LAC
|
|
8.10
|
94
|
WR
|
KCC
|
|
9.03
|
99
|
RB
|
TBB
|
|
10.10
|
118
|
WR
|
GBP
|
|
11.03
|
123
|
RB
|
ATL
|
|
12.10
|
142
|
QB
|
LAC
|
|
13.03
|
147
|
TE
|
NYJ
|
|
14.10
|
166
|
QB
|
SFO
|
|
15.03
|
171
|
WR
|
SFO
|
|
16.10
|
190
|
WR
|
JAC
|
|
17.03
|
195
|
PK
|
DET
|
|
18.10
|
214
|
Def
|
Houston Texans
|
HOU
|
19.03
|
219
|
Def
|
Cleveland Browns
|
CLE
|
20.10
|
238
|
PK
|
NYG
|
POST-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. You drafted four key players (starters) with a Week 12 bye. Is that a concern for you? How much emphasis do you put into bye weeks when drafting in this format?
Having four starters on the same bye week is certainly a concern but having 20 players on the roster will help here. I will have to be judicious in free agency in the weeks leading up to Week 12 to make sure I am covered. I would have avoided players with a Week 12 by if there were fewer roster spots, but I am less inclined to be concerned with byes when it comes to leagues with expanded rosters. However, that does not mean I can ignore the fact that Week 12 presents issues.
2. You selected Austin Ekeler with pick 7.03. What kind of expectations do you have for him this season and when should people be looking to draft him?
Ekeler is currently a value as an all-purpose running back in a very potent offense, but that value gets diminished when running back Melvin Gordon returns. I selected him to be an early-season starting running back on my roster as I feel Gordon will miss time, and he should be able to produce at a fairly high level while assuming a starting role for the Chargers. Ekeler will be a strong backup with upside when Gordon returns, and he will bring value throughout the season in that role, but Gordon tends to miss time already and might be more at risk due to his contract dispute. I selected Ekeler as RB31 in this league and I think that is right about where he should be drafted, if not a touch sooner. Ekeler should come off the board right when backups start to get selected as he is one of the better backup options at the position.
DEVIN KNOTT'S EVALUATION
Strengths
Scott nailed the start of the draft as he has one of the more balanced teams in the league this season as he started the draft off by going with two running backs and then was quickly able to get values on both Stefon Diggs and Chris Godwin. Austin Hooper had a tremendous year in this format last year with the 1.5 PPR and Scott received excellent value with him being the 10th tight end off the board in this format.
Weaknesses
The big question for Scott is at the quarterback position. Scott waited until the 12th round to take his first quarterback and will have to decide between Philip Rivers and Jimmy Garoppolo each week which will not be a lot of fun for Scott this season. The other concern for Scott’s team is that he mailed it in at the end of the draft taking two kickers and two defenses in a non-Best Ball league. Taking a deep shot at a rookie wide receiver or running back who may fall into the job due to a pre-season injury likely would have been the better approach in this one.
How He’ll Win It All
If Scott avoids injury, he will be a tough competitor this season as the top of his draft is as good as anyone in the league. He will have to keep a close eye on the matchups as he will have a decision to make each week at the quarterback, defense, and kicker positions, but if he can master those decisions he will have a great chance to win this league.
DRAFT SLOT 4
Dan Hindery, Footballguys, Bio
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Discuss drafting from the 4th hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
The 4th spot was the ideal draft spot to land but the risk of Ezekiel Elliott holding our for an extended period complicates things. I’m hoping someone takes him in the top three so I do not have to make that choice. In addition to guaranteeing a top running back, having two more picks in the top-30 overall helps you build a strong foundation. The only negative is the lack of standout options near the 4-5 turn. It feels like there is a tier break after the top 40 with a big group of players with ADPs of 40 through 65 that are tough to rank. It makes for some difficult decisions after the first few picks.
2. How will the dual-flex and tight end 1.5 PPR scoring format change how you approach this draft?
I’ve mostly avoided Zach Ertz and George Kittle near the 2/3 turn in drafts this season. However, in this format with the extra 0.5 PPR, it gives both of those players a big boost. If either makes it to my pick at 2.09, I would have to strongly consider them. Aside from pushing those two up my board, I am not going to change my approach very much. The tight end position is deep, so I am not going overreact and bump guys up much more than half a round compared to their standard ADP even though they become slightly more attractive as flex options.
3. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
I’m hoping Alvin Kamara makes it to 1.04. Some of the players I’m most interested in near the 2-3 turn are Todd Gurley, Damien Williams, T.Y. Hilton, and A.J. Green. Cam Newton and Kyler Murray are two of my favorite QB1 targets and I would look at them in the 8th-10th round range.
4. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)
Not really. However, the one position I want to monitor more closely than normal is tight end. Sometimes there is a bit of an overreaction to the 1.5-point per reception scoring and tight ends get pushed further up the board than they should. If that is the case in this draft, I may have to pick a spot to reach a little bit just so I don’t get completely shutout.
5. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
I love targeting these players who could score higher late in the season whenever there is a discount. In this format, those late-season weeks have a much bigger impact on your bottom line than do the early weeks. With the TE-premium scoring, I have my eye on Chris Herndon. His ADP has plummeted since the announcement of his 4-game suspension and if he slides into the 12th round, he makes for a nice target.
6. What is your strategy for drafting a Defense/ST and kicker for this league?
I am looking for a strong defense with a favorable early schedule. Dallas and Baltimore both have strong early fantasy schedules according to FBG’s strength of schedule metrics. Giorgio Tavechio of Atlanta stands out for the same reasons. It doesn’t hurt that the Falcons play indoors the entire first half of the season. I don’t believe in drafting these positions before the final few rounds but I may draft both defense and kicker before the last round to get ahead of the runs.
7. Name five players you are targeting in the later rounds?
- Tony Pollard: I think he can instantly step into a Theo Riddick type of role for the Cowboys and his upside should Ezekiel Elliott holdout or get injured is huge.
- Ted Ginn Jr Jr. The battle for the WR2 spot between Ginn and Tre’Quan Smith should be close. It is worth rolling the dice on Ginn given his late-round ADP.
- Deebo Samuel: I am a believer in his talent and think he will instantly carve out a solid role in the San Francisco offense.
- Marquise Brown: Despite getting a late start due to injury, Brown has to be considered the favorite to be the WR1 for the Ravens. Even in a bad passing offense, that is an attractive proposition in the final rounds.
- Tyrell Williams: Williams won’t last until the very end of the draft like these other guys but is a player I hope to target in the 12th or 13th round. He should get targets as the clear #2 in Oakland and has always been a fantastic producer on a per-target basis.
DRAFT SELECTIONS
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.04
|
4
|
RB
|
NOS
|
|
2.09
|
21
|
WR
|
KCC
|
|
3.04
|
28
|
WR
|
IND
|
|
4.09
|
45
|
WR
|
CIN
|
|
5.04
|
52
|
TE
|
NYG
|
|
6.09
|
69
|
WR
|
ARI
|
|
7.04
|
76
|
WR
|
Allen Robinson
|
CHI
|
8.09
|
93
|
RB
|
PHI
|
|
9.04
|
100
|
RB
|
Darrell Henderson
|
LAR
|
10.09
|
117
|
QB
|
ARI
|
|
11.04
|
124
|
TE
|
PHI
|
|
12.09
|
141
|
WR
|
OAK
|
|
13.04
|
148
|
QB
|
NOS
|
|
14.09
|
165
|
RB
|
DAL
|
|
15.04
|
172
|
RB
|
CIN
|
|
16.09
|
189
|
WR
|
ARI
|
|
17.04
|
196
|
WR
|
IND
|
|
18.09
|
213
|
Def
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
DAL
|
19.04
|
220
|
PK
|
KCC
|
|
20.09
|
237
|
WR
|
BAL
|
POST-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. You drafted A.J. Green on the night he hurt his ankle in training camp. You selected him with pick 4.09. What advice would you give to others who are looking to draft him? When is the sweet spot and what can we expect from him this season?
I am extremely optimistic about Green’s prospects this season if he can just stay healthy. He was the WR7 and on pace for 90 catches, 1,374 yards, and 12 touchdowns when he went down with a foot injury halfway through 2018. The recent ankle injury doesn’t look to be too serious and he should be ready to play Week 1. However, it does serve as a good reminder that Green is no sure bet from a health perspective. He has missed significant time in two of the last four seasons. His recent injury history and his age (31-years old) puts him in a slightly higher injury-risk category that could serve as a tie-breaker against him when making some of those tough calls in the early-mid 3rd round.
Even with the injury concerns, Green belongs in the 3rd round. If he falls to the end of the 3rd or into the 4th (like he did in this draft), he is a fantastic option because you know a WR1 finish is likely if he can stay on the field for 16 games.
2. The draft fell well for you. You were able to get several players that you targeted. How important is it to have a plan of action heading into a draft, particularly based on the draft slot that you receive? How much different would your strategy have been if you were slotted 10th, 11th or 12th?
Knowing your draft spot allows you to map out a general plan in advance. You can at least predict which groups of players and positional tiers you’re likely to be choosing from with your first few picks. Thinking through the most likely scenarios gives you more confidence and allows you to make quicker decisions while on the clock but you still have to adjust to the unexpected.
Drawing a top-4 draft slot opens the door to a modified “Single RB” strategy like I used in this draft. It’s especially attractive in these large tournaments because you know going in you probably need to hit on a late-round RB to put together an elite team that can really compete for the big money. Locking down an elite RB1 with that first pick gives you the freedom to go heavy at wide receiver and tight end with the rest of your premium picks before circling back and taking some shots in the mid-late rounds on upside plays to hopefully fill the RB2 spot.
If drafting 10th-12th, a similar strategy is possible but you have less control and may have to take what the board gives you near the 3-4 turn. If a wide receiver run happens early in the 3rd-round, you probably are best served switching gears and scooping up whichever running back falls as opposed to reaching at wide receiver.
DEVIN KNOTT'S EVALUATION
Strengths
The value that Dan got on his wide receivers was the story of this team. Not being concerned about A.J. Green’s injury, Dan went out and got what could be a steal in the fourth round. At the wide receiver position, Dan has three wide receivers who all have tremendous upside in Tyreek Hill, T.Y. Hilton, and Christian Kirk to pair with Green. Dan was also able to balance upside with a high floor at the quarterback position by taking Kyler Murray as the 9th quarterback all while quickly backing that up with Drew Brees as the 13th quarterback off the board.
Weaknesses
Dan went with a modified zero running back strategy in this league after taking Alvin Kamara, he waited until round 8 until his next running back. In a league that you can only start four wide receivers, taking five in the first seven rounds was a curious decision from Dan and one in which he will have to start the season with a player who is in a backup or split carry running back spot.
How He’ll Win It All
Dan’s team is strong, but it will be entirely based on his ability to have a running back emerge either through the waiver wire or through his four players not named Alvin Kamara. At the moment, Dan is going to have to survive the early weeks as the Eagles will likely slowly give Miles Sanders more responsibility so if he can survive the early weeks and have a running back emerge, this is a team to watch out for.
DRAFT SLOT 5
Kate Magdziuk, Ball Blast Podcast
Kate is a pediatric nurse in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania who is completely obsessed with fantasy football. She's currently hosting the BallBlast Podcast and writing for FantraxHQ.com.
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Discuss drafting from the 5-hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
Drafting from the 1.05 slot in 2019 is interesting. There are four clear cut studs at the running back position, and I have yet to complete a mock draft where one has fell to me. I don't do anything too special here in this spot. Luckily, in the middle of the draft like this, you're likely to catch any positional runs and can keep up with the group.
2. How will the dual-flex and tight end 1.5 PPR scoring format change how you approach this draft?
The tight end premium scoring aspect makes the biggest difference when it comes to the top 3 or 4 tight end prospects (Kelce, Ertz, Kittle). Typically these types of premiums will boost the ADP of these top prospects, but other than that, I approach that position by looking at who might have the chance at an increased target share in his respective offense - for instance, OJ Howard.
3. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
Some of my favorite targets right now are Mike Evans in the second, Kerryon Johnson in the 3rd, and Mark Andrews in the thirteenth round. I like to draft quarterback late and typically target guys like Dak Prescott or Kirk Cousins. I'll be interested to see how late quarterbacks go in this industry draft, as it's pretty typical for most analysts to subscribe to the late-round quarterback philosophy.
4. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)?
My approach is generally to go with the best player available, whether that means grabbing a player with the same bye or maybe not achieving the ideal balance of wide receivers and running backs. Drafting the best player available gives you the most bang for your buck when it comes to potential trade value, even if you do not intend to necessarily keep them all season.
5. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
I have a pretty hands-off approach when it comes to drafting these players that might not contribute right off the bat. In general, I subscribe to the idea that I might be able to trade for them if their production does not meet expectations early on. Frustrated owners can be great trade targets later in the season if you believe in the guy who's frustrating them!
6. What is your strategy for drafting a Defense/ST and kicker for this league?
My strategy for drafting a kicker and defense/ST is to punt the position to prioritize depth for other positions.
7. Name five players you are targeting in the later rounds?
Five of my late-round targets include Curtis Samuel, Donte Moncrief, Devin Singletary, Kirk Cousins, and Mark Andrews.
DRAFT SELECTIONS
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.05
|
5
|
WR
|
HOU
|
|
2.08
|
20
|
RB
|
CLE
|
|
3.05
|
29
|
WR
|
MIN
|
|
4.08
|
44
|
RB
|
CHI
|
|
5.05
|
53
|
RB
|
NEP
|
|
6.08
|
68
|
WR
|
CLE
|
|
7.05
|
77
|
TE
|
BAL
|
|
8.08
|
92
|
QB
|
CLE
|
|
9.05
|
101
|
RB
|
NEP
|
|
10.08
|
116
|
WR
|
HOU
|
|
11.05
|
125
|
TE
|
TEN
|
|
12.08
|
140
|
RB
|
PIT
|
|
13.05
|
149
|
TE
|
CIN
|
|
14.08
|
164
|
WR
|
MIA
|
|
15.05
|
173
|
QB
|
MIN
|
|
16.08
|
188
|
WR
|
DEN
|
|
17.05
|
197
|
RB
|
WAS
|
|
18.08
|
212
|
WR
|
WAS
|
|
19.05
|
221
|
PK
|
SFO
|
|
20.08
|
236
|
Def
|
New York Jets
|
NYJ
|
POST-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Talk about the decision to stack both Texans wide receivers, DeAndre Hopkins and Keke Coutee. Was that just how the draft unfolded or do you see a big gain having both Texans receivers on your roster this season?
Hopkins is the clear cut wide receiver in Houston, but given the defensive pieces lost this off-season and lack of power in the run game, I think predict this to be a pass-heavy offense. Although Coutee's average depth of target in 2018 (5.1 yds) left something to be desired, he looked great making catches in tight spaces. He finished two out of his seven total games with 100+ yards, despite spotty health and a nagging hamstring injury that kept him from his full potential. There's certainly an art to determining what offenses can produce multiple wide receivers, but given Keke's role in the slot and that value in PPR leagues, I couldn't pass it up.
2. You drafted two rookie running backs in David Montgomery and Damien Harris. Explain why you are high on both and the interest behind drafting rookie running backs in season-long leagues.
On principle, I'm pretty set against taking any rookie wide receiver in a season-long redraft league, just due to the amount of time it can take for them to acclimate to the field. Running backs can be different, though. David Montgomery was my favorite running back prospect in this 2019 draft class, and I can't be more excited for the situation he was just drafted into. Despite Jordan Howard's inefficiency in 2018, he's left behind 250 carries. If Montgomery sees close to the volume that Howard did (and I project that he will), he should be a lock for an RB2 in a Matt Nagy led offense.
Damien Harris is another interesting prospect to me, more so in regards to his opportunity than my excitement about his talent. Sony Michel was just lifted off the active/PUP list, but his extensive knee history is concerning. Despite spending a first-round pick on Michel, the Patriots went on to take a running back in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. It's a situation to monitor as the season progresses, but even with the Pats lacking consistency overall in their usage of the position, I think there's a lot of upside to be had by a guy slotting into a role on a Tom Brady led offense.
3. You were able to draft Mark Andrews, who you coveted, with pick 7.05. How did the draft fall for you, especially with the TE1.5 premium? What are your expectations for Andrews this year?
Being one of the middle picks, I felt pretty confident heading into the draft that I'd be able to grab one of the earlier guys given the tight end premium, but I was bested. Andrews is easily my favorite late-round value in 2019, and I think he's headed for a breakout season. Although rookie tight ends rarely produce, Mark Andrews managed to rank #2 in average depth of target among tight ends and #2 among all rookies in yards per route run. The Ravens ranked 7th in percentage of targets to the TE position, and if this screams anything to me, it's that Mark Andrews could be headed for some decent volume in 2018 and that he's bound to do some work with it.
DEVIN KNOTT'S EVALUATION
Strengths
Kate did a tremendous job building a balanced lineup at the running back and wide receiver positions. Kate was the first player to take a wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and solidified her wide receiver position with Adam Thielen in the third round. Kate was able to do this without sacrificing too much at running back as she has three running backs who should be in a position to see a majority of the workload this season in Nick Chubb, David Montgomery, and Sony Michel. This is a tremendous start to the draft and should make the week-to-week lineup setting decisions fairly easy as the top of her roster is loaded with talent.
Weaknesses
Waiting in a tight end league that is 1.5 point-per-reception is a risky proposition, and Kate is going to overcome not having an elite tight end by quantity over quality. Kate took three tight ends and is going to rely on second-year Mark Andrews, the oft-injured Tyler Eifert, and the veteran who is returning from an ankle injury in Delanie Walker. Getting consistent production and deciding which tight end to start will be critical for Kate.
How She’ll Win it All
Kate’s team is incredibly talented, but one of the lesser experienced teams in the league and she will rely on a lot of second-year players and rookies to leap forward. Kate took eight players who are entering their second seasons (Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, Baker Mayfield, Mark Andrews, Keke Coutee, Jaylen Samuels, DaeSean Hamilton, Trey Quinn) along with the first two of the first three rookies off the board in David Montgomery and Damien Harris. This will be a team that has tremendous upside, but expect some volatility as not all of the second-year players will improve to the point people are expecting them to, and some of the rookies will have some struggles.
DRAFT SLOT 6
Dan Clasgens, Sirius XM Fantasy
Dan started in the fantasy industry in 2003. He is the SiriusXM Fantasy host of Fantisitcs Insider Football since 2012. Host of The GetSportsInfo Podcast and ranker/writer at GetSportsInfo.com.
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Discuss drafting from the 6-hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
In most 12-team PPR leagues the six spot is not ideal. You miss out one of the top four running backs (Barkley, Elliott, McCaffrey, and Kamara) and have to make one of the first decisions on what is a cluttered group in the next 8-10 spots overall. In this format with TE’s elevated Travis Kelce (1.6 FFPC ADP) comes into play in this draft spot. Zach Ertz (2.10) and George Kittle (2.12) also get a boost. That will throw a wrench into what the first few rounds look like.
2. How will the dual-flex and tight end 1.5 PPR scoring format change how you approach this draft?
The 1.5 PPR definitely puts a premium on tight end and you will have to pay up to get a Tier 1 or Tier 2 option. Overall though. my approach is the same as other drafts I am either going to land a player from that range or punt the position altogether.
The bigger factor here is the dual flex, it really allows you to go in many different directions to construct a roster. The difference between a single flex and having two flexes is going for three different starting lineup options to six when you consider the RB, WR and TE positions.
These factors will give me more freedom and flexibility to take the best player on the board in more spots of the draft rather than building from a position of need.
3. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
I am inclined to go either Travis Kelce or DeAndre Hopkins with my first election (1.6) rather than one of the Tier 2 running backs. I expect WR value to drop so a Round 2 running back seems likely, but no matter what I’ll be sure two have a pair of running backs in the fold by the time I get done with Round 3.
4. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)?
I tier each position and identify targets at each tier, so I typically always have a backup plan in place or if necessary will pivot when the draft forces me to do so.
5. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
In general, I find rookies are usually overvalued and I expect this year’s class to be no different. Typically, I only target rookie running backs in redrafts, but this year Kyler Murray’s ceiling offers some appeal. I think his current QB11 / 94th overall ADP is about what to expect. I won’t reach much higher.
In high-stakes events like the FPC taking some lottery tickets on players injured or suspended (of facing suspension) comes with a huge risk, but also could lead to a big day. I don’t target these players, but I am open to taking a stab at one of them if I like my team and feel like it’s worth the price.
6. What is your strategy for drafting a Defense/ST and kicker for this league?
I am not planning on making a splash at either position. The kicker position is always my last pick. Defense is something I won’t be the first one to grab, but likely draft one somewhere in the middle of the pack in the last few rounds. Once the top defenses are off the board I usually go after ones that open with favorable schedules.
7. Name five players you are targeting in the later rounds?
Based off the most recent FFPC ADP I’ve looked at these are five guys I like outside the top 108 picks, essentially going 10th round or later:
- 124th overall: TE Mark Andrews (BAL)
- 130th overall: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB)
- 133rd overall: TE Jack Doyle (IND)
- 135th overall: RB Peyton Barber (TB)
- 208th overall: WR Marquise Goodwin (SF)
DRAFT SELECTIONS
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.06
|
6
|
TE
|
KCC
|
|
2.07
|
19
|
RB
|
LAR
|
|
3.06
|
30
|
WR
|
LAC
|
|
4.07
|
43
|
RB
|
DEN
|
|
5.06
|
54
|
WR
|
LAR
|
|
6.07
|
67
|
WR
|
Robby Anderson
|
NYJ
|
7.06
|
78
|
RB
|
CHI
|
|
8.07
|
91
|
RB
|
BUF
|
|
9.06
|
102
|
WR
|
Marvin Jones
|
DET
|
10.07
|
115
|
QB
|
PHI
|
|
11.06
|
126
|
TE
|
IND
|
|
12.07
|
139
|
RB
|
SFO
|
|
13.06
|
150
|
WR
|
NYJ
|
|
14.07
|
163
|
QB
|
TBB
|
|
15.06
|
174
|
RB
|
OAK
|
|
16.07
|
187
|
TE
|
BUF
|
|
17.06
|
198
|
QB
|
BUF
|
|
18.07
|
211
|
Def
|
Los Angeles Rams
|
LAR
|
19.06
|
222
|
WR
|
DAL
|
|
20.07
|
235
|
PK
|
Mike Badgley
|
LAC
|
POST-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. You drafted Phillip Lindsay with pick 4.07. He was the 22nd running back off the board. With uncertainty in the Denver backfield, explain why you like Lindsay to be the back to own for the Broncos?
I view Lindsay as a fringe top 20 running back and favor him over Royce Freeman as the back to own in the Broncos' backfield. Lindsay doesn't need a ton of touches to make fantasy noise. He has 4.4 speed and looks even faster on the field. He was one of only three RB's in the league a year ago to score three times on running of over 25 yards. New offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello has gone on the record too saying he wants to get Lindsay more involved in the team's passing game too. The key to Lindsay is staying healthy if he does I have no doubt he'll deliver a great ROI on his mid-4th round price.
2. I've seen a few drafts now where the team who drafts Travis Kelce in round one, ends up with Robby Anderson as their WR3 later in the draft. That's exactly what happened in this draft. How crucial is nailing the WR3 when taking Kelce in the first round? What other options at WR3 would you have targeted if not Anderson?
Kelce in Round 1 is a hole I wouldn't climb down in any format, but with the 1.5 points for TE receptions, he jumped up my board. When you get a tight end early, you almost have to view them as a WR1/WR2. As for Anderson, he's one of my favorite mid-round targets at the position and he offers great upside at WR29. His 15.0 YPC was seventh-best among receivers with at least 50 catches a year ago. I expect Sam Darnold to take a step forward in year two and Anderson is hands down the best weapon he has to throw the ball two. He's a high-end WR3 with top 20 upside.
DEVIN KNOTT'S EVALUATION
Strengths
Dan found some great values in this league early on as he was able to get Travis Kelce in a 1.5 point-per-reception league, and then follow it up with two tremendous values in Todd Gurley as the ninth pick in the second round and then adding both Keenan Allen and Robert Woods who both slipped in the draft compared to their average draft position. Due to this, Dan has one of the best starting lineups in the league as it is incredibly balanced while finding players with values.
Weaknesses
Dan is taking a significant risk at the running back position as his top two running backs are guys with significant risk for different reasons. Todd Gurley’s knee continues to be an issue and there’s a reason that he was available in the second-round for Dan. Phillip Lindsay’s risk is primarily performance-based as the 190 pounds running back is working with a new coaching staff and he is not tied to a big contract. If Lindsay struggles, the team could shift to Royce Freeman. Behind Lindsay and Gurley are two players each with an additional risk in Tarik Cohen and LeSean McCoy as they are both squarely in a backfield logjam and while Cohen will have a role in the passing game, having week-to-week consistency could be a challenge.
How He’ll Win it All
If both Gurley and Lindsay live up to expectations, Dan will be a tough team to beat as his team is incredibly balanced and has one of the strongest Week 1 starting lineups in this league mostly due to the values that he was able to find throughout the draft.
DRAFT SLOT 7
Russell Clay, Fantasy Guru
Russell is a writer/podcaster for Fantasyguru.com. He writes College Football DFS for Elitefantasy.com
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Discuss drafting from the 7-hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
The Seven Spot is difficult in the early rounds (because of the variance surrounding the middle of the rounds), but I expect it to pay off later. While I'd prefer to be at the turns, being able to flow with runs of the draft can pay dividends.
2. How will the dual-flex and tight end 1.5 PPR scoring format change how you approach this draft?
It won't change much. It might make me emphasize O.J. Howard and Evan Engram slightly more in the early middle rounds. I don't normally draft TEs in the early rounds, so that would just push the value even further in the direction of fading early-round tight end.
3. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
Rashaad Penny, James Washington, and Royce Freeman were the base of my rookie draft strategy this time last year, and with the cheapening in prices over the last year, exposure in 2019 season-long leagues makes a lot of sense. No chance I'm giving up on these three after one season.
4. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)
My base is always NFL draft position. Avoiding players drafted in round 4+ of the NFL draft has treated me VERY well in all fantasy football formats over the last five seasons. I don't have huge preferences for individual players.
5. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
The draft position plays an enormous role in all these categories. I want players that have reasonable macro odds of future success. The hits will eventually out-weight the misses. Rookies and young players drafted in the top three rounds of the NFL, in general, are good bets in later rounds. From 2018, players like Tyler Boyd (round 2), James Conner (round 3) were free this time last year.
6. What is your strategy for drafting a Defense/ST and kicker for this league?
It's trendy to knock anyone who drafted D/ST or K before the last round, but if I don't see value in the later rounds and can get Justin Tucker or the Jaguars defense, I'm going to do it.
7. Name five players you are targeting in the later rounds?
Damien Harris, Josh Doctson, DeVante Parker, T.J. Hockenson, Matthew Stafford
DRAFT SELECTIONS
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.07
|
7
|
WR
|
GBP
|
|
2.06
|
18
|
WR
|
TBB
|
|
3.07
|
31
|
RB
|
JAC
|
|
4.06
|
42
|
TE
|
TBB
|
|
5.07
|
55
|
RB
|
WAS
|
|
6.06
|
66
|
RB
|
SEA
|
|
7.07
|
79
|
TE
|
DET
|
|
8.06
|
90
|
WR
|
CAR
|
|
9.07
|
103
|
WR
|
NKeal Harry
|
NEP
|
10.06
|
114
|
RB
|
Ronald Jones
|
TBB
|
11.07
|
127
|
WR
|
PIT
|
|
12.06
|
138
|
QB
|
SEA
|
|
13.07
|
151
|
WR
|
IND
|
|
14.06
|
162
|
WR
|
MIA
|
|
15.07
|
175
|
QB
|
BAL
|
|
16.06
|
186
|
TE
|
TBB
|
|
17.07
|
199
|
WR
|
Mecole Hardman
|
KCC
|
18.06
|
210
|
Def
|
Baltimore Ravens
|
BAL
|
19.07
|
223
|
PK
|
NEP
|
|
20.06
|
234
|
Def
|
Denver Broncos
|
DEN
|
POST-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. In the pre-draft questions, you touched on targeting rookies from last year who have not yet met their potential. You selected several in this draft, namely Derrius Guice 5.07, Rashaad Penny 6.06, Ronald Jones 10.06, and James Washington 11.07. Explain how this strategy can pay dividends and talk a little about each of those players and why you like them this year.
I'm simply "playing the odds". While it may seem crazy to let macro probability determine decision-making on an individual pick basis, I know, over the course of the entire draft, that If I'm drafting purely players selected in the top three rounds of the NFL draft, that I'm going to find myself with very high odds of finding productive players. While Guice (2nd rounder), or Penny (1st rounder) may bust, if Ronald Jones (2nd rounder) hits, I'll take it. If James Washington (2nd rounder) misses, but a player like Curtis Samuel (2nd rounder), DeVante Parker (1st rounder) hits, I'm in the clear. I look at players as a collective and hope things even out over the 20 round draft.
A good for instance would be last year when I was a big investor in Leonard Fournette. A devastating blow to many rosters, but in dynasty, I was drafting James Conner in the 20th round of startups (yes, he was really going in the 20th round of startups), long before the Le'Veon Bell holdout, purely because he was previously drafted in round three of the 2017 NFL draft. Same goes for Tyler Boyd. I was a big DeVante Parker investor last year as well, and that stunk, but randomly landing Boyd in the late rounds of startups/ or the waiver wire in season-long leagues completely averaged out my misses! There's a cosmic order to this fantasy football stuff, and it's right in front of us.
DEVIN KNOTT'S EVALUATION
Strengths
Russell is trying to take full advantage of the 1.5 PPR at the tight end position as he took 2 of the top 12 tight ends in this draft. Russell expects big things out of O.J. Howard, as he went up and took him in the fourth round just before the run of tight ends occurred which going up and getting your player, is always the right move. He quickly backed this up in round 7 as he went and took rookie T.J. Hockenson well above ADP.
Weaknesses
Dan used a lot of early draft capital on the running back position as he used three of his first six picks on the position, but it is still a big question for him in this draft. By using his third, fifth, and sixth-round picks on Leonard Fournette, Derrius Guice, and Rashaad Penny, it leaves a lot to be desired. Fournette is coming into his third season and is heading in the wrong direction as he only played eight games last season and averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. Guice is coming off of an ACL injury and is likely going to start the season splitting carries with Adrian Peterson. Rashaad Penny is a talented running back, but will likely start the season as a backup running back to Chris Carson. There is a lot of talent in this backfield, but a lot of questions heading into this year for Russell.
How He’ll Win it All
Russell was bold in this draft by going out and taking his players in this draft instead of letting the draft come to him. By taking players above ADP such as T.J. Hockenson, Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny, Curtis Samuel, N’Keal Harry, it puts pressure on those players to perform. All of those players have tremendous upside and talent and if Russell is right on those players he could have a tremendous season.
DRAFT SLOT 8
B.J. Vanderwoude, Footballguys, Bio
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Discuss drafting from the 8-hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
Drafting from the eight-hole, I will have to be a little more reactive in the first two rounds than I would like to be due to the preference of wide receiver or running back for the drafters ahead of me. I am hoping that either LeVeon Bell or David Johnson slip to me at eight, but with the scoring system being 1..5 PPR for tight ends, I also have the option of drafting Travis Kelce in the first round, and potentially Zach Ertz or George Kittle in the second round.
2. How will the dual-flex and tight end 1.5 PPR scoring format change how you approach this draft?
As I mentioned above, it will significantly change my approach because the top three tight ends all become top 15 plays with 1.5 PPR at the position. The dual flex plays into this as well because you could potentially come away with a Kelce/Kittle combination in the first two rounds and have a massive positional advantage, but the downside of that is then forming a competitive team at the running back and wide receiver positions.
3. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
A perfect start to my draft would be David Johnson/LeVeon Bell in the first, and then either Ertz or Kittle in the second round. With that said, if the tight ends get taken early, that will open up value at the wide receiver or running back positions. Guys like Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, and James Connor could potentially slip back to me in the second round and those would be tremendous value plays. Other players I am looking at are Tyler Boyd (5th/6th), Damien Williams (3rd), Tyreke Hill (2nd/3rd), Robert Woos and David Montgomery in the 5th round.
4. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)?
My trigger points will most likely happen in the first and second rounds. If LeVeon Bell or David Johnson is there for me, I will take one of the two, and if they are not, I will be looking at Travis Kelce or DeAndre Hopkins.
5. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
My approach to these decisions comes down to value. If I feel like a player can outperform his draft position—while projecting on the conservative side—then I have no problem pulling the trigger. Suspended players, if you know their length of suspension ahead of time, are some of the best plays on the board because they are generally undervalued.
6. What is your strategy for drafting a Defense/ST and kicker for this league?
My strategy for drafting a kicker and Defense/ST is to wait until the later rounds, at least round 15 or so, and target the second tier of defenses and kickers. For defenses, the goal is to get two of the top 15 defenses. For kickers, I like to try and target an up-tempo offense like the Rams, Eagles or Saints, or potentially Arizona this season.
7. Name five players you are targeting in the later rounds?
Some players I am targeting in the later rounds are Geronimo Allison, Damien Harris, James Washington, DaeSean Hamilton, and MIke Davis.
DRAFT SELECTIONS
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.08
|
8
|
TE
|
PHI
|
|
2.05
|
17
|
WR
|
OAK
|
|
3.08
|
32
|
RB
|
GBP
|
|
4.05
|
41
|
RB
|
OAK
|
|
5.08
|
56
|
WR
|
CIN
|
|
6.05
|
65
|
RB
|
NEP
|
|
7.08
|
80
|
WR
|
DEN
|
|
8.05
|
89
|
WR
|
DEN
|
|
9.08
|
104
|
QB
|
ATL
|
|
10.05
|
113
|
RB
|
PHI
|
|
11.08
|
128
|
WR
|
GBP
|
|
12.05
|
137
|
RB
|
LAC
|
|
13.08
|
152
|
RB
|
BAL
|
|
14.05
|
161
|
WR
|
BUF
|
|
15.08
|
176
|
Def
|
Chicago Bears
|
CHI
|
16.05
|
185
|
TE
|
OAK
|
|
17.08
|
200
|
QB
|
OAK
|
|
18.05
|
209
|
WR
|
TEN
|
|
19.08
|
224
|
PK
|
Kaimi Fairbairn
|
HOU
|
20.05
|
233
|
WR
|
WAS
|
POST-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. You passed over David Johnson with pick 1.08 and selected Zach Ertz. What made you change your tune and go with Ertz? How big of an advantage is getting a Top 3 tight end in this format?
After running projections and looking at where each player was last year, it is nearly impossible for me to pass on a tight end who caught 116 passes in a format that rewards tight ends with 1.5 points per receptions. In this format, Ertz would have the equivalent of 174 receptions last season and would have been roughly the fifth-highest scorer among running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers. The extra .5 points per reception is a massive advantage, and getting one of the top three tight ends gives you a built-in edge each week. Your first-round pick should provide stability, and that is exactly what I expect from Ertz.
2. Justin Jackson was the 54th running back selected in this draft and you selected him with pick 12.05. His stock has risen with the news of Melvin Gordon's holdout. What should others know about Jackson and his chances to see an increased role with the Chargers this season?
With Melvin Gordon holding out, and potentially missing games or even pulling a LeVeon Bell, Jackson becomes a very interesting play given his skill set. Jackson rushed for 1,000+ yards in all four years of college at Northwestern, caught 122 passes with over 6,200 yards from scrimmage and 42 total touchdowns over his career. He has great hands for a running back and has the skills to be the Chargers third-down back at a minimum. At 6'0 and 199 lbs, Jackson doesn't have the look of a prototypical three-down back, but he proved he could handle a big workload by carrying the ball 1,142 times in college and never missing a game. The NFL is changing and if you look at a guy like Alvin Kamara, Jackson has a similar build. Austin Ekeler will be the next man up for the Chargers, but you cannot discount Jackson because he can break big plays and play on all three downs. The #1 running back for the Chargers are always going to have a chance to be among the top scorers at the running back position, so Jackson is a sneaky pick in the later rounds.
DEVIN KNOTT'S EVALUATION
Strengths
The running back position is a major strength for BJ heading into this season as he has a tremendously deep. Being able to snag Justin Jackson as his fifth running back with the pending hold-out of Melvin Gordon plays into the depth that BJ was able to acquire. BJ also played to this league perfectly in spending up on Zach Ertz in a 1.5 point-per-reception league could be a tremendous value after catching 116 passes last season.
Weaknesses
BJ believes in wide receivers with bad quarterbacks as his top four wide receivers have Derek Carr (Antonio Brown), Andy Dalton (Tyler Boyd), Joe Flacco (Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders) throwing the ball to them. While all of the wide receivers are discounted due to their quarterback, this creates week-to-week volatility as these quarterbacks will have some games where there is no fantasy production to be had.
How He’ll Win it All
BJ’s team is talented, but the biggest question is whether he will be able to get enough consistency at the wide receiver position. Having two receivers on the same team in Sutton and Sanders limits his upside. At the quarterback position, BJ will hope that Matt Ryan who has been a bit of a fantasy yo-yo has a great season and can follow-up a tremendous 2018.
DRAFT SLOT 9
Chad Parsons, Footballguys, Bio
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Discuss drafting from the 9-hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
I strongly prefer having an early draft position this year considering the running back drop-off generally by the back-half of the round. With the No.9 selection, I am likely to go with a stud receiver unless David Johnson is there of the feasible running back options. Round 2 will be far more flexible as I can see going with Travis Kelce if there considering the premium format and would gladly take James Conner or LeVeon Bell if available.
2. How will the dual-flex and tight end 1.5 PPR scoring format change how you approach this draft?
I do not react as much as many with the scoring boost for tight ends. The starting lineup is ideal to target two or three core wide receivers in the first few rounds but hammer running back to maximize the chances to consistently start 1QB, 4RB, 2WR, 1TE during the season. Jared Cook is one of my favorite tight end targets and will be in heavy mid-round consideration in this format. If I miss on Cook then I will wait and be one of the last teams to take a tight end in the draft as the tiers flatten considerably on my board following the Saints tight end.
3. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
After a stud receiver likely in Round 1 and one of Travis Kelce or a strong running back in Round 2, Amari Cooper would be ideal in Round 3 and Brandin Cooks could essentially complete my wide receiver group in Round 4. Kenyan Drake, Rashaad Penny, and Royce Freeman are some of my mid-round running back favorites as I transition to that position with targets.
4. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)
I do not have trigger points in a specific sense. However, I am mindful of positional runs when there is a logjam of talent at one position compared to others. This is far more important in a quarterback premium format or say 2TE mandatory setting. Being a few selections away from one of the turns aids in avoiding runs and having a few teams on even the short side to project their likely positional direction in the middle rounds to aid my decision-making for the upcoming two selection order.
5. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
I am open to rookie running backs in a redraft but not likely any other skill positions. I do love Kyler Murray, but as a serial late-round quarterback drafter, Murray is going too early for even my fandom to likely consider him. The injury-away rookie running backs have a strong crop in 2018 from Damien Harris to Alexander Mattison.
6. What is your strategy for drafting a Defense/ST and kicker for this league?
I look for a Week 1 matchup and a defense who can apply pressure. Adding in a questionable opposing quarterback (hopefully on the road) makes for an even easier decision. I wait until most of the league has taken a defense as well due to the volume of running backs I will still have on my target list in the late rounds. For kickers, I look for an established option on an above-average offense and (ideally) in a dome.
7. Name five players you are targeting in the later rounds?
Peyton Barber, D’Onta Foreman, Alexander Mattison, Giovani Bernard, Carlos Hyde, and Kalen Ballage are likely to encompass a good percentage of my selections beyond Round 10 in this draft outside of obligatory other positions. My criteria centers around good enough running backs with clear RB2 or better roles who can benefit greatly from an injury.
DRAFT SELECTIONS
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.09
|
9
|
RB
|
ARI
|
|
2.04
|
16
|
WR
|
PIT
|
|
3.09
|
33
|
WR
|
DAL
|
|
4.04
|
40
|
WR
|
D.J. Moore
|
CAR
|
5.09
|
57
|
WR
|
TEN
|
|
6.04
|
64
|
TE
|
NOS
|
|
7.09
|
81
|
RB
|
NOS
|
|
8.04
|
88
|
RB
|
DEN
|
|
9.09
|
105
|
RB
|
MIA
|
|
10.04
|
112
|
RB
|
MIN
|
|
11.09
|
129
|
RB
|
KCC
|
|
12.04
|
136
|
RB
|
CLE
|
|
13.09
|
153
|
RB
|
ARI
|
|
14.04
|
160
|
RB
|
JAC
|
|
15.09
|
177
|
RB
|
OAK
|
|
16.04
|
184
|
QB
|
NEP
|
|
17.09
|
201
|
TE
|
BAL
|
|
18.04
|
208
|
TE
|
NEP
|
|
19.09
|
225
|
PK
|
PHI
|
|
20.04
|
232
|
Def
|
Philadelphia Eagles
|
PHI
|
POST-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. You were able to draft several of the players that you coveted, namely David Johnson 1.09, Amari Cooper 3.09, and Jared Cook 6.04. Share why you are high on those players this year.
With David Johnson, the 'rising tide' theory for Arizona is in full effect. 2018 sapped any chance David Johnson had for an elite season. Enter a new coaching staff, system, Kyler Murray, and more speed at wide receiver and Johnson is underrated despite typically going in the mid-first round of drafts. Amari Cooper was a WR1 for fantasy once in Dallas last season and getting him at WR14 in this draft was a best-case scenario in the later-third round. The floor is high with Cooper and he can win weeks with his big games. Having him as a fantasy WR2 is a luxury. With Jared Cook, he is really the first tight end I legitimately consider in most drafts, even with the scoring premium here. I felt fantastic at wide receiver after stacking four straight in Rounds 2-5, so Cook was a luxury I could afford in the mid-rounds. Cook unlocked a career season in Oakland last year and now moves to the friendly confines of New Orleans. He is a threat to finish in the top-3 of the position and produce a new career year in 2019.
2. After selecting David Johnson with pick 1.09, you waited until the 7th round to draft another running back, and then you drafted nine consecutive running backs, while only drafting four wide receivers in the draft. What made you elect to follow that path? Is the value/selection options at wide receiver much greater than running back in rounds 2-5?
The lineup requires only two wide receivers and a team can start up to four running backs weekly. I prefer to stack three or four stable receivers early as the position (especially the predictability) wanes shortly after. On the flip side, running backs are ideal to take consistently over receivers in the later rounds. Knowing those two aspects, I blend early receivers with later running backs for the team composition. I considered Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb at 2.04, but with David Johnson as my anchor, I preferred this team build with JuJu Smith-Schuster in Round 2, followed by Amari Cooper and Corey Davis, all WR1 types for their NFL teams, knowing I would stack a host of running backs for the remaining 1-2-3 lineups spots weekly based on revolving depth charts.
DEVIN KNOTT'S EVALUATION
Strengths
Chad’s strength is his core and his running back depth. At its core, Chad went with a strategy to align his team to having big-play wide receivers at the cost of running backs as he only took one running back in the first six rounds albeit it was a tremendous value pick with David Johnson as the 9th selection. Chad then decided to take a running back for nine straight picks giving him ten total running backs on the team as he’s looking for a few to emerge as a value play.
Weakness
Chad only took one quarterback in this league and it was not until the 21st quarterback off the board in taking Tom Brady. While Brady is incredibly talented and getting him 21st is a value, relying on a 42-year-old quarterback could be a major risk. Also, Chad went all-in on running back depth as he selected running backs for nine straight rounds hoping to find a complimentary running back to David Johnson. What this did was it crippled his depth on this team to a point where while his top four wide receivers are strong, he only has four wide receivers on his team.
How He’ll Win it All
This is a boom or bust type roster. This is the type of roster that if a few of the running backs that Chad took can give consistent fantasy value, his four wide receivers stay healthy, and Tom Brady can be adequate could be the best team in the league by far. If one of those things don’t happen, this could be a team that is consistently point chasing off the waiver wire and struggling on a week-to-week basis.
DRAFT SLOT 10
Justin Howe, Footballguys, Bio
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Discuss drafting from the 10-hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
FPC greatly prioritizes tight ends, and I think I’m right in line to scoop Zach Ertz – or even Travis Kelce if my league-mates aren’t valuing the position right. Both guys should score right up there with the wideouts on the board, giving them much more value due to positional scarcity.
If I can’t scoop a top tight end early, then my goal is to come out of the first five rounds with three RBs. I won’t be winning a league with this kind of competition with a shallow, fragile RB stable. High-volume guys like LeVeon Bell and Joe Mixon should be around at 1.10, and the third and fourth rounds could bring me the likes of, say, Kerryon Johnson and Derrick Henry.
2. How will the dual-flex and tight end 1.5 PPR scoring format change how you approach this draft?
I’ll be looking to scoop either Kelce or Ertz at 1.10. Both guys are poised for (another) season that equals out to 140-150 receptions – value that’s unheard-of at the 10th pick. If both are gone, George Kittle is a little less of a sure thing but could be there in Round 3.
Since this league uses two flexes, I’ll be focusing heavily on mid-round wideouts. For one, I just like the early-round talent better at RB than I do at WR. And second, I’m planning to throw a ton of quantity at WR to win the flex as often as possible. There are far more wideouts than backs with chances to bring home flex value every week, so I’m hoping to stock up on 6-8 of them. Add in all of the flex potential at TE in this format, and it’s mind-boggling. That will make a great complement to early-round runners.
3. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
I plan to spend the first few rounds stockpiling high-usage running backs. And again, that means I’ll have to throw a lot of quantity at the WR spot. I’ll be taking 3-5 wideouts between the 6th and 10th rounds, so I’ll need to hit on more than half of them, with a blend of reliable volume and big upside. An ideal stretch of mid-round wideouts should bring me at least three of the following names:
- Cooper Kupp
- Robby Anderson
- Tyler Boyd
- Mike Williams
- Will Fuller
- Marvin Jones
- Dede Westbrook
- Donte Moncrief
4. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)
If I miss out on the top tight ends here, I’ll have to leap at the edge of the Eric Ebron/Austin Hooper/David Njoku/Jared Cook tier. Otherwise, I’ll be at risk of having to stream week in, week out., I love streaming tight ends – it’s fun in standard scoring – but it‘s anything but a recommended play in this format. Not only would I have to sift through a bunch of crapshoots each week; I’ll also have to decide when to start whom. My last chance at an every-week “set it and forget it” guy will be someone like Ebron, probably in Round 7 or so. Again, that’s if my league-mates underestimate TE power in this league. With 1.5 points per reception, even flawed guys like Ebron and Hooper have no business falling out of Round 6.
5. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
As for the injured, the suspended, and the holding out… it’s case-by-case. Guys with little real-life leverage (Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Thomas) don’t see the needle move too much. Guys I think could afford to sit a few games (Melvin Gordon) definitely fall to the next tier, where their ADP would reflect the risk. As for injuries, I’m generally fine with the guys that surprisingly avoided the PUP list (Will Fuller, Emmanuel Sanders), because they’re already getting solid ADP discounts. Those who opened camp hurt (like Sony Michel, whose knee may always be an issue) get bumped noticeable downward.
6. What is your strategy for drafting a Defense/ST and kicker for this league?
Simple: they’re my two last picks. No exceptions whatsoever. The jump from PK3 to PK 13 will be as small and as unpredictable is always; no way will I sacrifice late-round premium that could be used to chase real upside.
7. Name five players you are targeting in the later rounds?
- RB Gus Edwards – I swear, there’s no bigger arbitrage play at RB than the one from Mark Ingram down to Edwards. The latter comes about 12 rounds cheaper, and in my eyes, carries a 30-40% chance at leading this team in attempts. And this team might run the ball 600 times. Even without catching passes, he’d be an absurd Round 16 value (he sometimes goes undrafted) at 800-900 ground yards.
- RB Matt Breida – His ADP is dynamic across the industry – sometimes Round 10, sometimes Round 18. But he’s another big arbitrage play, this one from paying Round 6 cost for Tevin Coleman. We saw last year that Breida (eighth league-wide in yards per touch last year) might be the better player. I load up on him every time he’s sitting there in the 13th or so.
- WR Robert Foster – The Bills have remade their receiving corps, but they can’t ignore the fact that last year, their mess of a passing game roared to life when Foster stepped in. I’m glad they’ve added a few limited bodies to the mix – it’s made Foster virtually free. That means I can take a swing at a big-play No. 1 WR at the tail end of the draft. His ceiling is in the 2017 Robby Anderson range.
- WR Danny Amendola – Earlier today, the Lions released Theo Riddick. That means both of Matthew Stafford’s favored check-downs (Riddick and Golden Tate) have been sent packing over the last year. We saw late last season how difficult it is for Stafford to push deep right now, with the line in shambles and little depth at wideout. Amendola will come in the draft’s final 2-3 rounds, and he carries a 65-catch ceiling.
- TE Ian Thomas – Thomas’ ADP took a hit when Greg Olsen announced his return, but I still love the value – especially in this TE-centric format. Olsen is 34 years old and has been hobbled by foot injuries of late. Thomas was a rookie revelation filling last year: over 8 games of heavy snaps, he posted 33 receptions. And over the final 5 weeks, he topped 48 yards 4 times. If/when the Panthers decide to season him, he’ll flirt with weekly TE1 upside in this league.
DRAFT SELECTIONS
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.10
|
10
|
RB
|
LeVeon Bell
|
NYJ
|
2.03
|
15
|
WR
|
NOS
|
|
3.10
|
34
|
RB
|
TEN
|
|
4.03
|
39
|
RB
|
ATL
|
|
5.10
|
58
|
TE
|
IND
|
|
6.03
|
63
|
WR
|
LAR
|
|
7.10
|
82
|
TE
|
CLE
|
|
8.03
|
87
|
WR
|
Will Fuller
|
HOU
|
9.10
|
106
|
WR
|
NYG
|
|
10.03
|
111
|
RB
|
IND
|
|
11.10
|
130
|
WR
|
PIT
|
|
12.03
|
135
|
QB
|
LAR
|
|
13.10
|
154
|
WR
|
Tre'Quan Smith
|
NOS
|
14.03
|
159
|
QB
|
PIT
|
|
15.10
|
178
|
TE
|
DAL
|
|
16.03
|
183
|
RB
|
BAL
|
|
17.10
|
202
|
WR
|
MIA
|
|
18.03
|
207
|
RB
|
GBP
|
|
19.10
|
226
|
Def
|
New Orleans Saints
|
NOS
|
20.03
|
231
|
PK
|
SEA
|
POST-DRAFT QUESTION
1. How did the draft fall for you with the 10th slot? You looked like you had a good grasp on your picks throughout the draft. Explain how you know when it's time to draft for positional need as the draft unfolds, while still managing to pick players you covet.
Yeah, I definitely went after targeted players for most of the evening. That's always risky when drafting against a roomful of experts, but it mostly panned out for me. In general, my goal was to lock down my key slots - 3 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 weekly TE - based on whatever fell to me, then add the depth I liked based on my own tiers. QB and WR are always fairly deep into the middle rounds, so I was able to focus on QB/TE, which are shallower and higher-leverage, when the getting was still good. In other words: quality at those spots, then quantity everywhere else. I think that left me talented at RB and TE, deep at WR and QB.
DEVIN KNOTT'S EVALUATION
Strengths
This is an incredibly balanced team that was put together masterfully by Justin. By prioritizing the running back position, getting a possession tight end in Eric Ebron to go along with an upside tight end in Njoku, and having upside wide receivers to go along with Michael Thomas this is a team that heading into the season is one of the best on paper.
Weakness
The biggest question for Justin will be health as taking players such as Devonta Freeman, Cooper Kupp, Will Fuller, and Sterling Shepard is taking on some risk. The one knock on the draft for Justin is that he went with too much upside late instead of going with some more conservative safe plays as taking Tre’Quan Smith, Kenny Stills, and Donte Moncrief could leave Justin in a position where he is having to rely on having to pick between one of those on a week-to-week basis based on his wide receiver health history.
How He’ll Win it All
If Cooper Kupp can return from injury and be a consistent number two wide receiver, this will be one of the favorites to win the league. This is a team that to start the year is a dangerous one and has one of the clearest paths to a championship.
DRAFT SLOT 11
Jen Ryan, Football Diehards
Jen contributes weekly to CBS Sportsline, Scout Fantasy, and Football Diehards where she also makes a weekly appearance on their Sirius XM Fantasy show. You can find Jen on Twitter @FFdeJENerate or in her backyard at the sportsbook
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Discuss drafting from the 11-hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
Drafting from the 11th hole, I’ll be paying a bit more attention to roster construction than if I were drafting earlier. I’ll have two close picks and then have 20 picks in between my next two for the duration of the draft. So I’ll be looking to have a balance, if possible, with RB and WR early on. I prefer drafting towards the end in a snake. I’ll have an opportunity to grab falling value in the early rounds. In the mid-rounds, I’ll be forced to “jump a little early” on a player or two, but in an industry draft like this ADP tends to get thrown out the window.
2. How will the dual-flex and tight end 1.5 PPR scoring format change how you approach this draft?
If I miss out on one of the big three at tight end, I’ll aim for upside later on with three tight ends. If I take a shot, or even land, Kelce, Kittle, or Ertz early on then I’ll likely just go with two. Quarterbacks, I’m still going to wait. I’ll let someone else grab Mahomes and Watson and wait around for guys like Wilson, Brees, and Rivers.
3. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
I’m ridiculously high on Mark Ingram and the monster workload I anticipate he will receive in Baltimore. If he is there in the fourth round, I am taking him. He’s being drafted as the RB22 but with the volume, we could be looking at a bellcow with RB1 potential being drafted as a low-end RB2. I’ll likely spend one of my first two picks on Odell Beckham or Julio Jones, who seem to fall to the late first/early second. I’d rather either one of those players as the cornerstone piece of my team over Hill, Smith-Schuster, Brown, or Evans. Le’Veon Bell and Nick Chubb round out a few of the guys I’d look to build my team around. It is easy for us to forget that Bell very well may be the best running back in football. Some fear the year off and perceived rust; I welcome a year of not being hit by guys three times his size.
4. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)?
I say I’ll avoid the run but once the second tier of tight ends and the quarterbacks start flying off the board you almost don’t have a choice. Those are premium positions in this format and the well will run dry quickly.
5. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
I’m naturally rookie averse. With that said, I’ll take a look at later round running backs who could find themselves in a 12+ touch scenario come Week 1. Devin Singletary is that player for me. I am not avoiding players with injury history either. Its football, every player on the field is injury-prone. Suspensions only help with ADP in the later rounds. Give me Chris Herndon for free near the end of this draft.
6. What is your strategy for drafting a Defense/ST and kicker for this league?
Oh, this is an easy one. I’ll take one of each with my last two picks. I’ll stream defense throughout the season, and for my kicker, I’ll take whoever is there on a higher-scoring team with a late bye week. The last thing I want to think about when setting lineups on Sunday is a kicker.
7. Name five players you are targeting in the later rounds?
Chris Herndon, Greg Olsen, Matt Breida, Peyton Barber, and John Brown.
DRAFT SELECTIONS
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.11
|
11
|
WR
|
Odell Beckham
|
CLE
|
2.02
|
14
|
RB
|
PIT
|
|
3.11
|
35
|
QB
|
KCC
|
|
4.02
|
38
|
RB
|
Mark Ingram
|
BAL
|
5.11
|
59
|
WR
|
PHI
|
|
6.02
|
62
|
TE
|
PIT
|
|
7.11
|
83
|
TE
|
CAR
|
|
8.02
|
86
|
QB
|
IND
|
|
9.11
|
107
|
RB
|
WAS
|
|
10.02
|
110
|
WR
|
BUF
|
|
11.11
|
131
|
WR
|
PHI
|
|
12.02
|
134
|
RB
|
TEN
|
|
13.11
|
155
|
TE
|
DEN
|
|
14.02
|
158
|
WR
|
NYJ
|
|
15.11
|
179
|
WR
|
ATL
|
|
16.02
|
182
|
PK
|
LAR
|
|
17.11
|
203
|
WR
|
NOS
|
|
18.02
|
206
|
WR
|
DET
|
|
19.11
|
227
|
Def
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
MIN
|
20.02
|
230
|
RB
|
PHI
|
POST-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. You mentioned an interest in drafting a Top 3 tight end in this draft, however, you passed on George Kittle in the first and second round. What made you go in a different direction there?
I switched gears and pulled the trigger on the first quarterback off the board. With this being a Superflex and tight end premium, I flipped a coin here. The value well dried up almost immediately in this draft, which is no surprise considering the group in this one. I went back and forth for a bit on this one but ultimately settled on Mahomes. I knew I'd be making picks closely together in this one and by avoiding a tight end early that I would have to load up a bit on the position.
2. Let's talk about your Mark Ingram love. You selected him with pick 4.02 as the 19th running back off the board, passing over Devonta Freeman and Josh Jacobs, to name a few. Explain why you are high on Ingram this season.
Baltimore was one of two teams last season with 500+ rushing attempts and led the league with 547. They did this with a committee and revolving door, with Gus Edwards eventually settling in a bit as "the guy". Over the past five seasons, Ingram has finished RB14, RB12, RB8, RB6 and last year dropped off hard to finish as RB32. He also missed four games and was on the field for more than 50% of the snaps in just one game. Baltimore brought him in and gave him $6.5 million guaranteed. He isn't coming off the field much for Edwards and will be utilized in the passing game. He should be a 15+ touch player with 20+ touch upside, and I'll bet on his recent history over last season. In fact I'm so high on Ingram I threw a tiny wager down on him as the 2019 rushing yards leader at a whopping +6600.
DEVIN KNOTT'S EVALUATION
Strengths
Jen started this draft in the first six-rounds masterfully as she was able to get Patrick Mahomes II and still build a team that has both solid top two wide receivers and running backs. By taking James Conner and Mark Ingram these are two running backs who should give Jen solid week-to-week production and ultimately be a stable core for her team that will allow her to take chances on flex plays as the season progresses.
Weakness
Depth is an issue for Jen’s team. Taking Andrew Luck after already having Patrick Mahomes II in a league that you only can start one quarterback was an interesting decision that cost her what likely would be an every-week flex play at wide receiver. Jen took two tight ends in back-to-back rounds in the sixth and seventh rounds which may force her into starting 34-year old Greg Olsen on a week-to-week basis in the Flex.
How She’ll Win it All
Jen is going to have to win this one on her skill as a fantasy manager. To justify the Luck pick, she is going to have to pick between Patrick Mahomes II and Andrew Luck each week and time it right to create value far and above just starting Mahomes every week. At the flex play, Jen is going to have to nail the flex choice between starting two tight ends, playing John Brown/DeSean Jackson or rolling out Adrian Peterson.
DRAFT SLOT 12
Pat Fitzmaurice, TheFantasyFootballgirl
Pat is a contributor to TheFootballGirl.com and host of the Fitz on Fantasy podcast. He finished second in the FantasyPros rankings accuracy competition in 2017
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Discuss drafting from the 12-hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
Sitting at the turn, I might have to be just a little more aggressive at the so-called "onesie" positions (QB and TE) than I would be from a more central spot, simply because an entire tier could easily be wiped out between my picks. I'm hoping those positions fall right for me since they're harder to manage from either end of a draft.
2. How will the dual-flex and tight end 1.5 PPR scoring format change how you approach this draft?
3. Name a few guys that you are looking to build your team around. What rounds do you expect to get them in?
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a favorite target, and I'm hoping to land him at the turn. I also seem to be ending up with Jaylen Samuels in every draft, though he's more of a complementary piece than a building block. (Apparently, I'm a closet Steelers fan.) But there aren't a lot of "must-haves. I just want to find value.
4. Do you have any trigger points (ie players A and B are gone therefore I am looking to grab player C the next time I pick)
I've been drafting Kenny Golladay. He usually goes soon after Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are off the board. I'm not opposed to getting those two guys either, but if I'm not positioned to do so and the two Rams WRs come off the board in front of me, that next pick is often Golladay time for me.
5. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
It varies depending on league format. In this league, since we have big starting lineups and have to play a kicker and a defense, I'll let other people take the injury discounts. The workload thing is a different story -- I'm always happy to speculate on talented backups if the price is right.
6. What is your strategy for drafting a Defense/ST and kicker for this league?
In most best-ball drafts I'll take three defenses with my final picks. Here, with an extra flex spot and a kicker, it has to be two defenses. I'll probably only take one kicker and resign myself to a zero during the bye week. I don't want to sacrifice depth at other positions for a second kicker. Just give me one who has job security and is tied to a good offense.
7. Name five players you are targeting in the later rounds?
I already mentioned Jaylen Samuels. I've also been investing heavily in Chase Edmonds, who'd become hugely valuable if anything happened to David Johnson. T.J. Hockenson is good enough to be one of the rare TEs to pop as a rookie, and I'll probably try to get him as my second TE late. Another rookie I like: Andy Isabella. The kid can flat-out fly, and I think he's getting overlooked in redraft leagues and best-balls. I also like Antonio Callaway as a late-round play. He started making plays once Freddie Kitchens took charge of the Browns offense. Callaway is crazy-fast, and he's going to see a lot of favorable matchups because of all the pass-catching talent around him.
DRAFT SELECTIONS
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.12
|
12
|
WR
|
ATL
|
|
2.01
|
13
|
RB
|
CIN
|
|
3.12
|
36
|
WR
|
LAR
|
|
4.01
|
37
|
RB
|
IND
|
|
5.12
|
60
|
WR
|
LAC
|
|
6.01
|
61
|
WR
|
ATL
|
|
7.12
|
84
|
RB
|
HOU
|
|
8.01
|
85
|
QB
|
HOU
|
|
9.12
|
108
|
TE
|
CHI
|
|
10.01
|
109
|
TE
|
GBP
|
|
11.12
|
132
|
RB
|
SFO
|
|
12.01
|
133
|
WR
|
DK Metcalf
|
SEA
|
13.12
|
156
|
RB
|
CHI
|
|
14.01
|
157
|
TE
|
MIA
|
|
15.12
|
180
|
QB
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
CHI
|
16.01
|
181
|
Def
|
Los Angeles Chargers
|
LAC
|
17.12
|
204
|
WR
|
SFO
|
|
18.01
|
205
|
PK
|
BAL
|
|
19.12
|
228
|
WR
|
SEA
|
|
20.01
|
229
|
Def
|
New England Patriots
|
NEP
|
POST-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. You wanted JuJu Smith-Schuster at the 1-2 turn, but you elected to draft Joe Mixon along with Julio Jones. What made you shy away from taking two receivers there? Explain how drafters need to understand the draft, how it unfolds, and particularly how it all translates from the 12th slot.
Yeah, I had a change of heart when Julio and Mixon were both still on the board. I still have Julio ranked ahead of JuJu, and Mixon was the only RB left whom I was willing to take on the turn. Generally, I don't mind going WR-WR at the turn if people are pounding RBs, but there are so few sure-fire studs at RB that you owe it to yourself to grab one if you can. Maybe some people don't put Mixon in that class, but I do. His talent is sublime, and I'm not as worried about his offensive line as some other people are. One of the things that you can do from the 12th slot is double up on positions with those picks to apply positional pressure on your opponents. I didn't do it in the early rounds, but I felt good about getting Calvin Ridley and Mike Williams at the 5/6 turn and then finally addressing the TE position with Trey Burton and Jimmy Graham at the 9/10 turn. With the so-called "onesie" positions (QB and TE), I tend to be either more aggressive or more passive at the turn, since there can be runs on those positions during the long waits between picks. I took the passive approach at TE but turned on the aggression at QB when Deshaun Watson was still around at the 7/8 turn.
2. Who is one player that you wanted to draft but unfortunately your efforts did not land him? Explain why you are high on that player this season.
I'm pretty high on Amari Cooper and end up with him in a lot of drafts because I think I probably have him ranked a tier higher than most people, but the 1/2 turn is too early for him, and he didn't last to the 3/4 turn.
DEVIN KNOTT'S EVALUATION
Strengths
Pat has one of the strongest wide receiver and running back groups in this league as he found a nice balance with both consistency and upside. Pat also struck at a perfect time for a quarterback as he got DeShaun Watson just before the quarterback run occurred in the 8th round which pairing his wide receivers and running backs with Watson makes for an incredibly dangerous team.
Weaknesses
In a league that is 1.5 point-per-reception for the tight end position, Pat is going to have an uphill battle keeping pace at the position as he took two very volatile players in Trey Burton and Jimmy Graham. Both players are talented, but picking between them each week is going to be a challenge for Pat. If there is one additional weakness on this team it was that Pat has some interesting stacks on his team that could limit his upside. By starting both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley along with DeShaun Watson and Lamar Miller each week, it could limit his point upside every week.
How He’ll Win it All
Pat’s team is incredibly talented. The key to this will be two players, Matt Ryan who is not on his team and DeShaun Watson. The reason Matt Ryan is an integral part of this team is that Pat has both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley thus if Ryan and the Falcons offense is a disappointment he has almost no chance at winning this league. If they can match the same output as last season, Pat should have a tremendous chance in this one. For DeShaun Watson it is all about health, if he were to go down, this entire offense including Lamar Miller goes down with it, so Watson needs to stay on the field and Pat should have a great chance in this league.
Questions, suggestions and, comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com