Super Bowl Showdown Preview

An overview of the top plays for this week's Super Bowl Showdown

How to Approach the DraftKings Captain Spot?

If you’re playing either DraftKings GPP, one of the biggest mistakes particularly on DraftKings people make is that they play a quarterback in the Captain/MVP spot. While this is the right strategy in a cash game as the quarterbacks have the highest floor of any player, it often is the wrong decision when it comes to GPP’s, especially on DraftKings. There are three reasons for this:

  • Salary cap- On DraftKings, you have to pay a 1.5x premium for the Captain spot. By taking the most expensive player on the board at that 1.5x premium, this severely limits your ability to fill out the rest of the roster as Mahomes this week takes up 37.8% of your salary and leaves just $6,220 per position if you roster him in the Captain spot.
  • Ownership- Quarterbacks typically are some of the highest owned players in the Captain spot especially in a contest such as the Super Bowl contest where you will have more people unfamiliar with the Showdown game, but chasing some of the bigger prizes.
  • Game Flow- Unless the quarterback is going to score a rushing touchdown or have significant rushing upside such as Lamar Jackson, most of his points are going to come through the air. What that ultimately means is that the upside is with those catching the ball more than the quarterback himself due to the point per reception, the point every 10 yards, and the 6 point receiving touchdown compared to just a 4 point passing touchdown from the quarterback.

Patrick Mahomes II-

Mahomes will likely be the highest owned player on the slate this week and for good reason. He is the safest player on this slate. At this point, there isn’t much to say about Mahomes and his ability to throw the ball, but what has become intriguing this postseason is his ability to run the ball as he has 53 yards rushing in each of his last two games including a rushing touchdown against the Titans. The matchup is not the greatest, as San Francisco has been one of the best defenses on the season, but they have done this mostly through getting pressure on the quarterback which is something that the Chiefs excel at as they have allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL this year. He will be popular as a DraftKings Captain, but the recommendation here is that it will be difficult to separate yourself if you go that route.

Recommendation: DraftKings Flex, FanDuel Flex, FanDuel MVP

Jimmy Garoppolo-

Many people are going to be turned off by the price of Garoppolo this week especially due to his volume over the last two games in which he threw the ball just 27 total times in those two games. This could lead to an opportunity where you could get Garoppolo at much lower ownership than he otherwise should be. Those two games in the playoffs are games in which the 49ers dominated winning by 17 points in each game. With the 49ers being underdogs this week, it is difficult seeing them win by 17 points. What is interesting about Garoppolo is that in games that were decided by 7 points or less win or lose, he averaged throwing the ball 32 times. Garoppolo is a much better play this week on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel due to the price difference as on DraftKings he is the 7th highest priced player, while on FanDuel he is the second-highest priced player which is likely too high and makes for an easy fade there.

Recommendation: DraftKings Flex

Travis Kelce

The 49ers are an untested unit against the tight ends this season as while they have allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends, the list of tight ends that they have faced leaves a lot to be desired. While their run-stopping unit has significantly improved since Dre Greenlaw took over for Kwon Alexander, their defense against the tight end has been lacking as since Week 10 the 49ers have allowed the 12th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and the best tight end that they have faced since that time is Tyler Higbee and Jacob Hollister. The Chiefs could come out and try to minimize the pass rush by getting the ball out quickly to Kelce which makes for an excellent possession receiver and a red-zone threat.

Recommendation: FanDuel MVP, DraftKings Captain, FanDuel/DraftKings Flex

Emmanuel Sanders

Some people are going to overlook Sanders this week based on his last two games of having 0, 2 and 3 receptions over his last three games. The reality is in two of those games, the 49ers threw the ball a total of 27 times. Sanders will see a lot of Charvarius Ward this week as well as Kendall Fuller when he slides down to the slot which both will be good things for Sanders as Ward is the most targeted cornerback on this team with Fuller being the second most per routes covered as teams have elected to avoid throwing at Bashaud Breeland as he is targeted just 12% per route run. This is a pure cost savings play as we have seen the upside that Sanders possesses as evidenced by his two 100-yard games. He is risky, but at that price, there are not many players that possess the upside that Sanders has.

Recommendation: FanDuel/DraftKings Flex

Deebo Samuel

This is purely a pricing error by FanDuel to have Samuel at $8,500, he will be one of the most popular players on this slate. Samuel over the second half of the year has been the most consistent wide receiver in San Francisco as he has 40 yards or more in this low volume offense in 9 of his last 11 games including three 100-yard performances. This is a play that if you’re looking for a safe wide receiver sub 9k on FanDuel, Samuel is your guy. He is too highly-priced on DraftKings up at $7,600.

Recommendation: FanDuel Flex

George Kittle

The key to the 49ers' success this week will be George Kittle. On the year, the Chiefs' weakness has been stopping pass-catching tight ends and while they haven’t faced many, their results have been abysmal. The only player that is close to Kittle’s caliber that the Chiefs have faced is Darren Waller who in two games this season they allowed 163 yards on 13 receptions. They also faced Hunter Henry in which they allowed an average of 14 DraftKings points in each of their two meetings. The problem for the Chiefs is that Kittle will see a lot of Tyrann Mathieu who will be giving up 7 inches to Kittle and if they move Mathieu into run support, Daniel Sorenson has been one of the worst safeties in the league over the last few seasons which led him to be benched for Juan Thornhill. This is a matchup nightmare and will play a significant role in the game this week. Kittle’s price is fair on both sites and could be utilized as a DraftKings Captain.

Recommendation: DraftKings Captain, DraftKings/FanDuel Flex

Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert is one of the more interesting players on this slate as he dominated the Packers in their last game rushing for 220 yards and 4 touchdowns. However, in the five games before this, he failed to have more than 14 carries and averaged just 58 yards rushing per game. 58 yards per game is not a bad number by any means, but the issue is that there is little to no value in playing Mostert this week as at $9,400 on DraftKings and $13,500 on FanDuel, the only way that he is playable is if Tevin Coleman is ruled out which it appears he is going to be active this week.

Recommendation: Fade

DraftKings Captain Value Rankings

DraftKings Flex Value Rankings

FanDuel MVP Value Rankings

FanDuel Flex Rankings

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