Analyzing NFL Pass and Rush Splits

A team by team review of 2018 play volumes and splits based on game script.

A foundational component to projecting NFL offensive production is determining how many plays a team is likely to run and how often they will run or pass on those plays. Game script has a major impact on how teams approach offensive balance. For this reason, each team’s wins and their average margin of victory (MOV) are important contexts. Teams that win more often by larger margins will lead more and vice versa.

Game Script and Play Calling Splits by Wins (2014 - 2018)

Team Wins
5 or fewer
6 or 7
8 or 9
10 or 11
12 or more
Leading %
21%
30%
35%
44%
51%
Tied %
18%
18%
20%
19%
20%
Trailing %
61%
51%
46%
36%
30%
Pass %
59%
58%
57%
55%
54%
Rush %
41%
42%
43%
45%
46%

Below is a breakdown of each team’s play volume and splits for the 2018 season. Each team is broken down by leading, tied, and trailing scenarios.

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