No position is more unpredictable in fantasy football than kickers. Year after year after year, no position has a lower correlation between where they're drafted before the season and where they finish after the season. No position has a lower correlation between how they score in one week and how they score in the next. No position has a lower correlation between projected points and actual points.
In addition, placekicker is the position that has the smallest spread between the best players and the middle-of-the-pack players for fantasy. Finally, most fantasy GMs will only carry one kicker at a time, which means there are a dozen or more starting kickers sitting around on waivers at any given time. Given all of this, it rarely makes sense to devote resources to the position. Instead, GMs are best served by rotating through whichever available kicker has the best weekly matchup.
Every week, I'll rank the situations each kicker finds himself in (ignoring the talent of the kicker himself) to help you find perfectly startable production off the waiver wire.
Week 1 Results
Brett Maher (0 FG attempts, 0 FGs, 5 XPs, 5 points)
Maher came right out the gate and demonstrated why kicker is the most unpredictable position in fantasy. The number one indicator of which kicker is going to score well in a given week is which offense is going to score well in any given week. The signs pointed to Dallas being one such offense, and Dallas actually delivered— only Kansas City and Baltimore scored more points on offense last week (Tennessee also outscored Dallas but nine points came from their defense). Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Dallas' offense was a bit too good; historically more than a third of scoring drives are typically field goals, but the Cowboys never stalled out and Maher settled for extra points, finishing tied for 17th at the position.
Dan Bailey (0 FG attempts, 0 FGs, 4 XPs, 4 points)
Bailey's problem was similar to Maher's— an offense that reached scoring range plenty but never stalled out— compounded by the Vikings running one of the slowest-paced, run-heaviest game plans in modern league history. Bailey finished tied for 21st.
Jason Myers (0 FG attempts, 0 FGs, 3 XPs, 3 points)
My kingdom for a field goal! Our top three picks of the week played on offenses that combined to score 12 times and every single one of them was a touchdown. Extra points are better than nothing, but field goals are where fantasy kickers make their money. We'll write this down for now as "good process, bad outcome", as Myers finished tied for 26th.
Matt Prater (2 FG attempts, 2 FGs, 3 XPs, 9 points)
Finally, an offense that exhibited a more typical mix of scoring drives. Prater benefited from an overtime period (and the new rules that allow each team to score a field goal without the game ending) to score 9 points on the week, good for 10th at his position.
Zane Gonzalez (4 FG attempts, 4 FGs, 1 XP, 13 points)
If Maher, Bailey, and Myers represent what happens to kickers when an offense stalls out less often than expected, Gonzalez is the perfect example of what happens when it stalls out more. Perhaps an unconventional pick to highlight for Week 1, but the formula says what the formula says - and it's a good thing that it does - because Gonzalez's 13 points ranked 3rd at the position and helped salvage an otherwise poor start to the season.
RESULTS TO DATE
To date, Rent-a-Kicker has made 5 weekly recommendations Those 5 kickers have averaged 6.8 fantasy points, just a hair behind last year's 7.38 point average. That 6.8 point average would currently rank 15th at the position. A 15th-place finish is misleading, however, because many of the kickers ahead of our amalgam went undrafted and put up their points on the bench or on the street in most fantasy leagues.
The top 12 kickers by preseason ADP were Greg Zuerlein, Justin Tucker, Harrison Butker, Wil Lutz, Stephen Gostkowski, Kaimi Fairbairn, Robbie Gould, Jake Elliott, Mason Crosby, Mike Badgley, Brett Maher, and Adam Vinatieri. Only six of those twelve players outperformed our Frankenkicker, meaning the owner who streamed kickers off of the waiver wire in week one probably got results somewhere around the middle of the league, on average.
WEEK 1 SITUATIONS
**Since streaming kickers is so popular and rostered players can vary across leagues, here is a list of how favorable every kicker's situation is based on Vegas projected totals and stadium. Quality plays who are especially likely to be on waivers based on NFL.com roster percentages are italicized and will be highlighted in next week's column. Also, note that these rankings are kicker-agnostic; teams will occasionally change kickers mid-week, but any endorsements apply equally to whatever kicker winds up eventually getting the start.**
Great Plays
Stephen Gostkowski, NE
Harrison Butker, KC
**Joey Slye, Car
Justin Tucker, Bal
Kaimi Fairbairn, Hou
Greg Zuerlein, LAR
Jake Elliott, Phi
Good Plays
**Mike Badgley / Ty Long, LAC
**Matt Bryant, Atl
**Matt Prater, Det
Wil Lutz, NO
Neutral Plays
**Cairo Santos, Ten
Steve Hauschka, Buf
Brett Maher, Dal
Chris Boswell, Pit
Randy Bullock, Cin
Eddie Pineiro, Chi
Poor Plays
Adam Vinatieri, Ind
Aldrick Rosas, NYG
Robbie Gould, SF
Mason Crosby, GB
Daniel Carlson, Oak
Brandon McManus, Den
Avoid at All Costs
Matt Gay, TB
Dustin Hopkins, Was
Jason Myers, Sea
Dan Bailey, Min
Josh Lambo, Jax
Zane Gonzalez, Ari
Jason Sanders, Mia
A note on the Chargers: regular kicker Mike Badgley was injured late in the week last week and the team pressed punter Ty Long into action as their replacement placekicker. It's possible that Badgley is healthy enough to play this weekend. It's possible that he's not and Long kicks for another week. It's possible that the Chargers bring in a short-term replacement kicker while Badgley convalesces. Because our recommendations are based on situations and not players, we endorse and will track the kicker for the Chargers this weekend, regardless of who that winds up being.
