The offseason plate tectonics have basically come to rest. We can survey the landscape of the NFL and ruminate on it for a month before the washing machine starts up again, but when that happens, we will have information coming at us at a Niagara Falls flow rate, so it’s important to firm up our starting point on player values so we have the proper framework to interpret that tidal wave of new data coming our way. Where do running back PPR values stand right now?
The top four in every draft
Alvin Kamara, NO
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
Christian McCaffrey, CAR
Saquon Barkley, NYG
This quartet will lead off drafts across formats. We have to split hairs to order them, so I’m not going to fiercely insist that one order is obviously more correct than another. My rationale comes down to managing risk. Kamara has the lowest risk factor because of both his and his offense’s stability. Elliott has the unknown upside via the return of Travis Frederick leading many arrows pointing up around this offense, and that makes me want to put him #1 and understand that ranking. His off field record was already under scrutiny by the NFL and he still made the news for the wrong reasons, so that risk factor cancels out his upside. I could be overweighting the risk of another off field incident triggering a suspension and underweighting his ceiling in a better, more rationally coached offense. McCaffrey would appear to be the #1 if we focus on last year, but I am a bit skeptical about his target share/volume because of it could be in part a product of Cam Newton’s injured shoulder and the state of the passing game. If those are better this year, that top end ceiling could come down a notch or two. His overall snaps also seems a bit unsustainable and excessive. But there are no real flaws here and Newton’s healthy return could create more overall efficiency and spike McCaffrey’s touchdown upside. I can’t fault anyone for taking him #1. Barkley seems like the most likely to go #1. He’s fourth for me because of the worst quarterback play and most horizontal passing game on this list. His volume and raw ability might still overcome that.
Strategy Tip: The value of the top four picks is very close this year, so take #4 if you get your choice of draft slot, and value #3 more than #2 or #1.
Monitor: Cam Newton’s recovery, Giants quarterback situation
ELITE if...
David Johnson, ARI
Joe Mixon, CIN
Melvin Gordon, LAC
When the dust settles, any of this group could produce numbers that rival the elite four, but there is potential for disappointment. Johnson should be used much more rationally than last year in an offense that will generate a lot more plays, yards, and touchdowns that last year’s morose edition. The offensive line and ability of the Kliff Kingsbury air raid experiment to flourish is a risk factor, but it is also a possible plus with the scheme and Kyler Murray’s running and escapability making the line quality less impossible and the overall element of surprise and lack of preparation by opposing defenses for what they are about to see. The real debate on Johnson in my mind is whether to take him, Travis Kelce, or a receiver in that 5-8 range of the first round. Mixon is next, and by next year - heck, by Week 4 - we could be including him in the elite. The arrows are pointing up around the Bengals offense and Mixon was looking like a back about to peak at the end of the season. I won’t argue with taking him as high as #5. Melvin Gordon can produce with the elite four but hasn’t been with us for the fantasy playoffs for two of the last three years and that’s hard to ignore when you’re making your first round pick.
Strategy Tip: Johnson and Mixon both have the potential to deliver the same return as a top four pick. Prioritize them when you draw a mid-first unless you want to take Travis Kelce or your favorite wide receiver.
Monitor: Arizona offense install/use of Johnson, Cincinnati offense install/use of Mixon
Potentially Elite Backs with Larger Risk Factors
Nick Chubb, CLE
LeVeon Bell, NYJ
Dalvin Cook, MIN
Devonta Freeman, ATL
Damien Williams, KC
James Conner, PIT
Todd Gurley, LAR
This tier is full of RB1 candidates with plenty high ceilings to justify taking them at ADP, but they are facing risk factors that give us pause when it’s time to pull the trigger. Chubb is an emerging stud finishing for what should be a great offense, but will be joined by Kareem Hunt halfway through the season. Bell has Adam Gase, a year layoff, and a big downgrade in quality of surrounding offense. Cook has a checkered injury history, although his handcuff is very cheap and his situation could be improving. Freeman is proven and healthy now, but looked like a back on the verge of breakdown last year. Williams has the best situation by far and confidence of his team, but it’s always difficult to spend a second round pick on a player without a long track record or pedigree of a team cornerstone. Like Cook, the price to hedge your second-round bet on first-round value is cheap in the form of Carlos Hyde. Conner will be at or near the top of this list and counting on the Steelers to remain married to a true workhorse approach might pay off. I’m more persuaded by the buzz of a multi-back backfield and rational coaching, as Conner wore down last year and the Steelers have three backs that they like with a variety of strengths. Gurley has been the talk of fantasy circles this offseason. Until I see some affirmative sign of optimism about his knee, I can’t recommend taking him earlier than the third round.
Strategy Tip: This tier is full of first round value ceilings at second and third round prices, except for Bell. Nailing the right back(s) from this tier can make your draft. I’m drawn to Chubb, but there are good cases to be made for all of them and it might end up being smart to pivot to someone else in the tier.
Monitor: Kareem Hunt role, Bell/Gase relationship, Cook/Gurley/Freeman health, Williams momentum, Steelers running back usage
Unknown Upside RB2s
Josh Jacobs, OAK
Aaron Jones, GB
Kerryon Johnson, DET
Leonard Fournette, JAX
Derrick Henry, TEN
Marlon Mack, IND
This confounding group will comprise a lot of the third and fourth round running backs this year. They all are on the upside of their careers, but carry a variety of supporting cast quality, risk factors, volume limitations, and ceiling attributes to their values. Give me unknown upside here, which is what the rookie Jacobs has working for a coach that wore out Cadillac Williams early in his career and what Jones has working for a coach other than Mike McCarthy in a system that should amplify the value of his talents. I love the player Johnson is and the Lions won’t shy away from running the ball. Jacobs has Jalen Richard, Jones has Jamaal Williams, and Johnson has CJ Anderson and Theo Riddick sharing the load. If Riddick is released, Johnson could move to the top of this tier. Fournette will be higher on a lot of boards but his injury history is spotty and he carries the risk of falling out of favor with his team, although he could get a bump from an upgrade to competent quarterback play. I won’t talk anyone out of taking him in the third. THIS is gonna be the year Henry gets the pound the ball twenty times a game every game, am I right? He still can’t contribute much in the passing game and the Titans and their offense doesn’t give you warm fuzzies when it comes to hitting offensive expectations. Mack is the most difficult to project for me. He’s not a great passing down back and I see him as the least talented on this list. His team should be highly successful on offense and the scoreboard, which will give him a lot of high ceiling game scripts. I understand going strong to the hole for him but the lukewarm feeling about his talent gives me pause.
Strategy tip: You can start WR-WR or WR-Kelce with a late first draft slot and still likely get two of these backs at or near the 3-4 turn, but they will be among the last available.
Monitor: Doug Martin/Jalen Richard roles, Jamaal Williams role, CJ Anderson role, Theo Riddick roster status, Fournette health/team comments, Titans offensive line progress/offensive blueprint, Mariota camp performance, Mack health.
Limited Upside RB2s
Mark Ingram, BAL
Chris Carson, SEA
Phillip Lindsay, DEN
This group will fit in with the middle to low performers of the tier above, but is unlikely to score above the top performers. They still project as everyweek RB2 types as long as they stay healthy, but they will be sharing the workload every week and don’t project as do everything workhorses in any event. Ingram has a great running game as a foundation for his value, but he is past his prime and could yield more to Justice Hill as the season goes on. Carson hasn’t been the most durable, but finished 2018 on a high note and has a great running game around him. Rashaad Penny could be coming on and turn this into more of a committee or even overtake Carson if he misses time. Lindsay will probably share more with Royce Freeman than he did last year, and he did rely on some big plays to spike his value. He was a rare performer for a rookie UDFA and there is a chance that it ends up being his peak year after it ended with a severe wrist injury. Carson is the most underrated of this group.
Strategy Tip: Taking Carson and Rashaad Penny should give you at least a solid RB2 play every week without spending a top 50 pick.
Monitor: Justice Hill role, Carson/Penny split, Lindsay wrist health, Royce Freeman camp/preseason buzz
Swing for the fences
Darrell Henderson, LAR
Kenyan Drake, MIA
Both of these backs have a very high ceiling this year, but also have a floor of not even being reliable flex plays. Henderson could be an every week RB2 with even 12 touches a week if the Rams offensive line gels, and more if Todd Gurley’s knee is a problem again. Drake could be an every week RB1 if the new staff rides him and he overcomes a poor situation like he did in December 2017, but he could also be part of a committee in a bottom five offense that represents a shanked pick from the get go. Henderson has the more reasonable price but lower spot on the current depth chart. Both fit in draft plans that emphasize ceiling over floor at running back in the mid rounds.
Strategy Tip: Both of these backs are must for zero running back/do the opposite/upside down drafting and high stakes contests with more importance placed on the fantasy playoff weeks than typical leagues and should be weighted heavier if you only take one running back in your first five picks.
Monitor: Henderson buzz, Gurley health, Drake role
Committee Backs
Sony Michel, NE
James White, NE
Tarik Cohen, CHI
Tevin Coleman, SF
Rashaad Penny, SEA
Jordan Howard, PHI
Damien Harris, NE
These backs are going to be stuck in situations that cap their weekly ceilings as committee backs without injuries in their backfields, and maybe even if there are injuries. The most controversial take here is that the top three New England backs all have roughly the same value. Sony Michel has to be healthy to hold off third-round pick Damien Harris and he might not as well-suited for the role he occupied in 2018 as Harris. White showed he can be an RB1 if everyone else is hurt, but Harris’s presence makes that a more remote possibility this year. I do wonder if he’ll be more central in the passing game than ever with no proven healthy outside receiver and Rob Gronkowski retired. He and Tarik Cohen are still boom/bust PPR RB2/Flex plays even with no injuries to their backfieldmates. Coleman is a tough projection. He is the healthiest back in San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan clearly has an affinity for him in his system. He could he the lead back to start the year and a reliable RB2 as long as he is healthy. He could also be part of the most frustrating committee in the league. Penny will probably need a Carson injury to be a reliable play, but that has happened each of Carson’s first two years. He could take enough of a step forward to have flex value without a Carson injury. Howard’s value will be weighted towards the first half of the season unless Miles Sanders blows away the Eagles this summer. He is equally likely to underwhelm and give Howard the clear lead back role entering the season. Harris is a must target in redraft leagues at (rising) ADP. He is a competent all-around back with fresh legs in one of the most productive backfields in the league.
Strategy Tip: Howard fits well in a draft that includes only one running back in the first 5-6 picks. He should have a large role early in the season. It could diminish as Miles Sanders comes on, but Howard will score well enough and buy you time for younger backs to emerge and take over his role on your team if/when he fades. Once again, Damien Harris’s ADP is way too low, take advantage while you can.
Monitor: Michel/Harris camp performances, 49ers running back health, Bears running back roles, Penny progress
Upside Bench Stash
Derrius Guice, WAS
Miles Sanders, PHI
David Montgomery, CHI
Ronald Jones, TB
Royce Freeman, DEN
Carlos Hyde, KC
Justice Hill, BAL
D’Onta Foreman, HOU
None of these players are backs I want to count on going into the season, but we can imagine scenarios where they quickly become reliable plays. Guice is a stellar talent, but coming back from serious injury with multiple surgeries and he’ll share with Adrian Peterson in a bottom third offense that might lose the linchpin of their line. Sanders and Montgomery will be in committees until they prove they are clearly superior to their more experienced teammates. Jones is complete unknown but the team is saying the right things about him and there’s plenty of opportunity in Tampa. Freeman should get more opportunity under a new regime in a system that is better suited to his talents. Hyde could have flex value with some red zone work and even one-third of the Chiefs running back snaps/touches and he has a very high Damien Williams injury ceiling. Hill is the swiftest Ravens back and could do a lot more with the big holes his running game creates than any of his teammates. Foreman will get a chance to show that he can get all the way back from his 2017 achilles tear and force a committee with Lamar Miller. Hill and Foreman are the cheapest and best picks from this tier, but most of them are undervalued in current rankings.
Strategy Tip: Justice Hill is very undervalued right now, and Hyde is solid investment considering the quality of his situation. Foreman’s ADP reflects skepticism which could dissipate with a good camp/preseason. These are the best values from this tier.
Monitor: Roles/progress of everyone in tier. A lot could change in the next two months
Quality Depth but unlikely to be more than that
Latavius Murray, NO
Austin Ekeler, LAC
Lamar Miller, HOU
LeSean McCoy, BUF
My peers have this group rated higher than I do. All of them will have RB2/flex level weeks, and perhaps even peak as reliable RB2 plays for a stretch, but they have low season-long and weekly ceilings and give you the kind of depth that good drafting and waiver moves should create as a byproduct. Most signs point to Murray having a smaller role than Mark Ingram, although he’s a good matchup flex and has some Alvin Kamara injury upside. Ekeler won’t take over the backfield even if Melvin Gordon goes down because of Justin Jackson, who might even be the more valuable back if Gordon misses time, but Ekeler’s passing game involvement makes him a matchup flex and fine emergency play. Miller will start the season as the #1, but Foreman could close that gap quickly and this isn’t a top-performing running game that can keep backs relevant in a split backfield. McCoy could get cut, could be the lead back Week 1. Unless the offense takes a huge step forward, the reward isn’t good enough to merit an investment at ADP.
Strategy Tip: This tier is boring, but fits in a draft plan with 3-4 early running backs and a desire to have a short running back bench with only high floor bye week coverage to free up as many roster spots as possible for upside plays at the positions neglected at the expense of building the best running back group in your league.
Monitor: McCoy roster status, Foreman progress/role
Injury Upside/Emergency Starters
Giovani Bernard, CIN
Jamaal Williams, GB
Jaylen Samuels, PIT
Matt Breida, SF
Jerick McKinnon, SF
Now we are getting to the backs who need an injury to have relevance in most any scenario. Bernard actually got some starts in place of Mixon each of the last two years and he’s a proven talent. Aaron Jones injury history isn’t spotless, so Williams is next, although he’s a middling talent in NFL terms. Samuels might have some standalone value if the Steelers are aggressive and creative with his multi-faceted skillset, but I won’t hold my breath waiting for the Steelers to innovate on offense. There’s still Conner injury upside here. It’s hard to picture Breida or McKinnon getting more than a few series a game to open the season if all hands are on deck, and both have questionable durability in a large role, but good talent and fit in the 49ers offense. All of these backs except McKinnon are underrated on my board.
Strategy Tip: With the exception of McKinnon, all of these backs are undervalued. Include at least one in your endgame draft plan.
Monitor: Breida/McKinnon health, Samuels/Williams/Bernard usage/role
Unknown Reward/Known punishment
Kareem Hunt, CLE
What do we do with Hunt? How much of his value was created by the Chiefs offense? How much work will he get with Nick Chubb (and maybe Duke Johnson Jr) in the same backfield? Will he even be relevant for fantasy leagues when he takes the field? There are too many questions to roster Hunt in short bench leagues although his value will increase with each passing week to reward patient fantasy players. He might be a good player to draft in deep leagues and trade right before his return. I would rather hold an injury upside back for eight weeks to see if they get opportunity than hold Hunt for two months with no ability to contribute to my team.
Strategy Tip: Hunt makes a lot more sense in long bench/deep leagues where the opportunity cost of lost waiver wire pickup freedom is much lower
Monitor: Hunt camp/preseason usage/role
Emergency Starters/Role Players
Nyheim Hines, IND
Duke Johnson Jr, CLE
Mike Davis, CHI
Chris Thompson, WAS
Dion Lewis, TEN
Peyton Barber, TB
These backs all have spot start value and good enough involvement in their offenses combined with previous production to make them worth a bench spot in deeper leagues, but they won’t have a larger role than they do now unless injury epidemics strike their backfields, with the possible exception of Lewis, but how likely is a Derrick Henry injury? Johnson is the most interesting target here with the possibility of a trade before or during the season to a bigger role. Barber is the incumbent starter in Tampa, but he could have a smaller role this year and the team could still add a back before the season.
Strategy Tip: All of these players are much more appealing in best ball leagues where their weekly scoring unpredictability is rendered moot
Monitor: Hines camp buzz, Johnson trade rumors, Davis role/integration, Thompson health, Lewis role
Injury Upside/Handcuffs
Malcolm Brown, LAR
C.J. Anderson, DET
Darwin Thompson, KC
Chase Edmonds, ARI
Adrian Peterson, WAS
Devin Singletary, BUF
Raheem Mostert, SF
Justin Jackson, LAC
Benny Snell, PIT
These backs all need injuries to be relevant in fantasy leagues this year, and maybe even more than one injury, but they are either proven producers, players in good situations, or rookies that the team liked enough to spend a mid-round pick on. Kerryon Johnson missed time last year, we all know about Todd Gurley’s knee, Damien Williams has never been a lead back for a whole season, Edmonds is in an exciting offense, Derrius Guice hasn’t stayed healthy for more than a blink of his NFL career, Singletary could get a bump if LeSean McCoy is released, but still shares with two other veteran backs. Mostert is the most intriguing to me with his level of play last year and the injury history of his backfieldmates, although he is still coming back from a broken forearm that has sidelined him for longer than expected. Jackson could be justified at the top of this tier with Melvin Gordon’s injury history, but he would share with Austin Ekeler, and Snell would share with Jaylen Samuels if James Conner goes down.
Strategy Tip: Don’t be too attached to these backs on your bench in early waiver wire runs. They are bench spot placeholders for players who offer upside without injuries to teammates. In long bench/deep leagues they are more valuable important to commit to as handcuffs because the free agent running back ranks will be thin.
Monitor: Snell/Singletary/Thompson camp buzz, Guice/Gurley health, 49ers running back health
