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It's the 5.09 pick in 12-team, PPR draft, and you only have a single wide receiver. Would you pick Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, or Sammy Watkins? Or would you pass on all three?
The Results
And the winner is -- mixed!! See the percentages below.
Group
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Percentage Picking...
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Godwin
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Ridley
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Watkins
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None of the Three
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Footballguys Staff
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52.9%
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17.6%
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29.4%
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0.0%
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Footballguys Facebook
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31.1%
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50.8%
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14.8%
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3.3%
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Comments from the Staff
Daniel Simpkins
Sammy Watkins. As Matt Waldman has been pointing out vigorously this offseason, Watkins has been working with the training staff and appears to have finally cracked the code in terms of staying healthy. He has the best quarterback and offensive situation of the three, and given Tyreek Hill’s likely multi-game suspension, we could see Watkins get off to a fast start.
Jason Wood
All three are in my Top 25, and I'm happily grabbing any of them if they're available at current ADP. But if all three were on the board, the choice would be Chris Godwin. Bruce Arians is Jameis Winston's best chance at evolving from an inefficient yardage monster into an all-around passer worthy of the 1st overall draft pick the Buccaneers spent on him.
Godwin will rarely face double teams thanks to Mike Evans, and Godwin will have a clear-cut handle on the No. 2 role for the first time thanks to DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries moving on this offseason.
Devin Knotts
Chris Godwin. I'll take the youngest receiver in the group. Godwin who is a full year younger than Ridley has all the tools to continue to grow into his role that he established last season as the second receiver in Tampa. With very little talent surrounding him with the departure of DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries, Godwin will be a primary focal point of this offense and provide week-to-week consistency.
Justin Howe
It's Godwin - I'm highest on him (WR17) staff-wide. He's a physical specimen who wins downfield and in the red zone, and he'll be playing primarily from Bruce Arians' slot. He's not Larry Fitzgerald, but he'll still dominate non-Mike Evans looks across the field. There's realistic upside here for an 80-1,200-9 type of line.
Ryan Hester
It’s interesting that no one yet has acknowledged the potential scenario that Watkins is the top receiver in an offense designed by Andy Reid and captained by Patrick Mahomes II. If you’re of the mind that Tyreek Hill will miss a significant portion of the season (six games or more), you have to consider Watkins here.
Watkins is the top perimeter target (rather than Godwin being the likely second option in Tampa). And for those who cite Watkins’ injury history as a reason to avoid him, note that his stint as WR1 will likely be at the beginning of the season, a portion of the year where he’ll presumably be at full health.
Devin Knotts
Three issues with Watkins for me:
- Travis Kelce is still there and will be the number one target.
- Complimentary options - Damien Williams has shown he’s a good receiving back. Mecole Hardman will play a role in trying to fill in for Tyreek.
- I don’t believe Tyreek Hill will be suspended the full season. Therefore Watkins value will be front-loaded. To draft Watkins in this range he’s priced for Hill to be out in the fantasy playoffs.
Andy Hicks
I cannot believe that no one is taking or even talking about Calvin Ridley. He is my clear choice of the three.
Jason mentioned that Chris Godwin will rarely face double teams thanks to Mike Evans. Guess who has the same issue in Atlanta. Julio Jones is arguably the best receiver in the NFL, something that isn’t said about Mike Evans as much. Advantage Ridley.
Devin mentioned that Chris Godwin is a full year younger than Ridley. We are talking about 23 and 24-year-olds, not 30-year-olds. It also needs to be mentioned that Calvin Ridley has a lot of growth as a receiver from year one to year two. There is no doubt that Godwin has further improvement too, but Ridley was the higher draft pick and ultimately should have a higher career ceiling than Godwin.
Which quarterback would you trust more to help your receiver? Matt Ryan or Jameis Winston?
As for Sammy Watkins, no thanks. Into his sixth year and third team, this is finally the year he fulfills his potential...again. What messes it up this year? Injury? Other players targetted more? In the dynamic 2018 Kansas City passing game, Watkins saw four receptions a game. Maybe Tyreek Hill misses a few games, but is Watkins up to the job? In his one year with the Rams, he was okay, but Brandin Cooks in the same role obliterated the output of Watkins in 2018. At his draft price, Watkins has too much baggage and risk.
Chad Parsons
Sammy Watkins has the most upside of the three and I do not view it as particularly close. Tampa Bay is a questionable offense with changes at the top plus Jameis Winston in a critical season (with no fallback option in gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick). Mike Evans is going nowhere and O.J. Howard returns from injury. Calvin Ridley is in a similar boat as Godwin with an entrenched No.1 receiver in Julio Jones. For Watkins, the main issue has been health. Also, he is finally in the same offense for a second season since Buffalo. Watkins is a blue-chip talent and in arguably the best offense in the NFL. Add the variable of Tyreek Hill missing games and possibly substantially so, and Watkins is the clear option to be rostered as a WR3/4 type but could be a weekly WR1 for a chunk, or more, of the season.
Dan Hindery
Tyreek Hill’s likely suspension is a wild card. Assuming it ends up being six games or less, Watkins easily ranks last on this list for me. As potent as the Kansas City offense was last season, it still ranked just 11th in passing attempts per game, behind both Atlanta (5th) and Tampa Bay (4th). Hill and Travis Kelce are such dominant presences in the Chiefs offense, there probably aren’t going to be enough targets left over for Watkins to put up big fantasy numbers. He saw just 5.5 targets per game last season.
Calvin Ridley and Chris Godwin are both exciting talents. However, opportunity favors Godwin, making him the clear choice for me. Godwin has a much clearer path to seeing a big boost in targets.
Last season, Ridley was targeted 92 times. He should see a few more targets this season but, barring injury, it is hard to see where a big bump in targets would come from. The only open targets from last year’s Falcons are Tevin Coleman’s 44 and those should go to Devonta Freeman (who had just 7 last year due to injury). Ridley could take a step forward in his second year but Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Austin Hooper aren’t likely to see big changes in their roles or share of targets. Any increase in usage for Ridley is likely to be incremental.
In 2018, Godwin was targeted 95 times (3 more than Ridley) and it is easy to see the gap in targets between the two increasing substantially moving forward. The departures of Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson open up a whopping 179 targets in Tampa. Some of those 179 open targets will go to Breshad Perriman (maybe 60 or so) but the vast majority are going to be distributed between Godwin, O.J. Howard and Mike Evans. Godwin is going to go from playing just 64% of the snaps in 2018 to being on the field almost every down in 2019. With the big increase in playing time, he should also see at least 25 more targets (putting him at 120+) and it isn’t hard to envision an even more substantial boost given how Bruce Arians has featured the slot receiver in his past offenses. For example, Larry Fitzgerald (at age 34) saw 161 targets from the slot in Arians’ final season in Arizona.
Dwain McFarland
These three receivers all sit in a tier together because they really are close.
For Watkins, it ties to Tyreek Hill's situation - if Hill is out Watkins tops the list. However, assuming it is more like six games as Dan mentions above moves Watkins to the bottom.
Godwin and Ridley are both ascending talents, but the edge goes to Godwin. Ridley still has to find his way onto the field more consistently than Mohamed Sanu. While that could happen, Godwin is already a lock to see the field on most snaps. Additionally, he will work from the slot which is where eight out of the last ten target leaders in an Arians offense played. Evans is still likely the lead target, but don't be surprised if it is closer than folks expect.
Justin Howe
For me, it's Godwin without a doubt.
I agree with Phil that Ridley is creeping into no man's ADP land. He's a solid 70-catch guy this year, of that I'm confident. But it won't look as pretty with 6-8 touchdowns.
Godwin is going to put in a lot of slot and interior work. The Bucs don't have much of anything opposite Mike Evans, so this passing game could be a three-man show (Evans, Godwin, O.J. Howard). That wouldn't be a new wrinkle for Bruce Arians, who's never been accused of forcing the ball down the depth chart. Godwin's versatility will keep him locked onto the field for an offense likely to throw 600+ times. I've honestly got a baseline expectation around 75-1100-8 and wouldn't be surprised to see a 20% jump.
Phil Alexander
If you had asked me a week ago, Watkins would have been the easy answer. But with the news cycle now pointing towards Tyreek Hill's suspension lasting four games or less, Watkins becomes too volatile to reach for in Round 5.
At this point, I feel more comfortable chasing Godwin's potential volume. 28% of Tampa Bay's 2018 targets have been vacated. The Buccaneers ranked fourth in the league in pass attempts last season, so there could be some regression, but I wouldn't count on much. In Bruce Arians' last two seasons as Cardinals head coach, his teams ranked third and fifth in pass attempts, respectively. Godwin fits the physical prototype of an NFL WR1 and has been productive as a pro in just about every game he's been targeted at least five times.
I'm completely off Calvin Ridley. He scored a touchdown on an unsustainable 10.9% of his targets, which trailed only Mike Williams and Tyler Lockett last season. As Dan mentioned, we can't project an increase in volume for Ridley to compensate for the touchdown regression he's due.
The sweetest spot to target ascending wide receivers in 2019 drafts is Rounds 6 and 7, where D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Dante Pettis, and Christian Kirk are available. I would rather wait and scoop any of those guys than draft Ridley at his ceiling in the fifth.
James Brimacombe
All offseason so far it has been Sammy Watkins for me as I am picking him on the basis of Tyreek Hill missing half the season and him being elevated to the Chiefs number one receiver for the first half of the season. Now with the Hill news even murkier, and 8-games being less likely, I am questioning that logic.
Watkins has so many question marks with him entering the year. Hill suspension, injury history, lack of consistency, and volume of targets are all on the list but the one thing that swings me in the positive side is the quarterback throwing him the ball in Patrick Mahomes II and the opportunities he has in front of him for crushing in 2019. I will be chasing Watkins potential high ceiling this season over the likes of Godwin and Ridley who have superstars in Mike Evans and Julio Jones ahead of them.
Keith Roberts
I actually just selected Chris Godwin in a draft under this same scenario. The situation and lack of competition for quality targets in an Arians system are what sets him above the other choices for me.
Jeff Pasquino
Calvin Ridley. Give me a player with a clearly defined role in an offense that will be projected to push for Top 10 status (especially passing) and that scored most of its touchdowns to its top three wide receivers (22 of 35 overall, 22 of 25 to receivers). Picking Watkins is risky, as the Chiefs top target is tight end Travis Kelce, and if Tyreek Hill is active in any particular week, Watkins is likely only going to get six to seven targets max. That leaves Godwin, which is asking to invest in him as the new WR2 for a Tampa Bay team that is completely overhauling its wide receiver corps after WR1 Mike Evans. Ridley has more than earned the pick here, and there is the least downside risk of the three names here - and arguably at least as much upside as Godwin or Watkins. Godwin would be my next choice for similar reasons to what Jason Wood pointed out (targets vacated, new offense, likely WR2). Watkins is descending in value as Hill's suspension may be less of a factor.
Drew Davenport
Godwin. This purely comes down to opportunity when I'm making this decision.
The points made about Ridley's touchdown rate and target share are the most controlling factors for me. While Ridley admitted to hitting a rookie wall in 2018, over the second half of the year he exceeded 3 catches in a game just 3 times, and one of those games was Week 17 (with just 32 yards receiving). There's been no indication in Atlanta that things are going to change this season, and the amount of targets that Mohamed Sanu will soak up (94 last year) limits Ridley's appeal in any lineup-starting league. His upside is obvious, but when a 3/22 line is a real possibility in any given week I'd want to go for someone more reliable as a WR2.
The case for Watkins is tied to Hill's suspension, but I do believe that in addition to the appeal of big weeks when/if Hill is suspended, Watkins does have decent stand-alone value as well. The problem comes when you have to tell too many narratives about a player that begins with "IF...". While we hope Watkins can stay healthy, there isn't a lot of evidence that can happen. When you're this deep into a career, I prefer to bet on what a player has been, instead of what we collectively hope can happen. A healthy Watkins with no Tyreek Hill is mouthwatering, but I'm too risk averse to want that for my WR2.
The main case I make for Godwin is quite simple. There just aren't very many options on the Tampa Bay offense. While I think Bruce Arians will help Jameis Winston, with Todd Monken out of town there won't necessarily be more pass attempts. I'm actually expecting that to drop a little bit, but it won't matter for Godwin. With just Evans and Howard to compete with, and no dynamic pass-catching running back, this feels like an easy pick out of the three choices. Godwin makes a great second wide receiver and could push for borderline WR1 numbers with even a modest increase in targets. With the massive amount of targets vacated there is potential upside while still allowing him to become consistent game-to-game as well. When setting a lineup that's exactly what I'm looking for.
Select Comments from Facebook
Doug H
Ridley, believe it or not!
Josh G
Best one of the year so far. I have to take Ridley. I’ve been duped by Sammy too many times, he’s gotta prove it before I can put him in this category. Ridley has the pedigree, the quarterback, and is coming off a 10-touchdown season. That likely regresses, but Ryan clearly trusts him and I think he could be a guy we are talking about in the top 15 wide receivers at this time next year.
Raymond R
Calvin Ridley, hands down. While I’m expecting a slight drop in production from a stellar rookie season, he has the best chance of consistency. Instead of ten touchdowns, I’m thinking 7-8. We might see an increase for him in regards to receptions and yardage to help negate the touchdown drop off.
I had Watkins from his rookie season until the middle of last season in a dynasty league. He is high risk, mediocre reward.
Godwin...I like him. But I use a simple formula: Don’t draft Buccaneers. That simple.
Alex S
Watkins for me! I love the upside of being a top target for Mahomes and can live with the injury risk. Godwin is solid and I am starting to buy the hype a bit. Ridley I don’t think is on the level of the other two for potential production just yet.
Jeff D
Godwin has an opportunity to be this year's Smith-Schuster with the potential target load coming his way.
Doug D
Godwin. Too many mouths to feed in Atlanta, and Watkins has disappointed me before as well.
Dave S
I am taking a pass on these. With Hill out Watkins Gets doubled, Ridley will get a sophomore slump along with Mahomes. Not sold on Godwin's ability.
Steve H
Watkins for the high ceiling guy in the fifth round, when he’s healthy and playing, he’ll be scoring.
J.D. W
A lot of recency bias going for Ridley. I'm not a huge fan of any, but I think Godwin has a ton of upside with Arians coming in this year
Ernie R
Godwin, easily. Bruce Arians works passing magic. Godwin is a deep baller and a slot guy... I can see him being last year's Smith-Schuster.
Ridley isn't a bad pick here either, but if I only have one wide receiver by Round 5, I better have at least two stud running backs, a top-five tight end.
Strategy scenario based:
- If I took another running back in the fourth round (to make it three backs), I'm going for a quarterback here and grabbing another wide receiver in Round 6.
- If I took a quarterback already, I'm def going Godwin here, I like the risk vs reward. Winston is an up/down quarterback but did put on 20 lbs, and Bruce works his Aggressive Arians style.
Jeremy C
Depends a lot on the T Hill suspension situation. If he gets eight games or more, then Watkins. If not, then I like Godwin. Too much competition for targets in Atlanta.
Zachary T
At this point, I would lean Godwin. Arians' system with him on the outside feels like fantasy gold. But if at some point in the future Hill is suspended, Watkins all day long.
Ron K
Godwin at this point in time but any definitive news on Tyreek could change that.
Rodney S
Ridley because I believe Ryan to be underrated this year. Atlanta should look more like 2017 than 2018.
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