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The premise of a Pick-a-Player question is as follows:
- You need a player at that position and all three are available.
- The draft is at a stage where these players are usually drafted, and none of their bye weeks are duplicated on your current roster.
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In this case, it is a non-PPR league, and you are up at Pick 1.10. Would you take James Conner, Todd Gurley, or Joe Mixon? Or would you pass on all three?
The Results
And the winner is split between Conner and Mixon. See the percentages below.
Group
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Percentage Picking...
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Conner
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Gurley
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Mixon
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None of the Three
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Footballguys Staff
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14.3%
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28.6%
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57.1%
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0.0%
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Footballguys Facebook
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39.6%
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24.5%
|
24.5%
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11.3%
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Comments from the Staff
Daniel Simpkins
Todd Gurley. We shouldn’t be overly worried about Gurley because Gurley isn’t worried about himself. If managed correctly, he still has a chance to continue to post among the best numbers at the position, despite not getting as many touches this season. The opportunity in this creative and unpredictable offense still remains unrivaled.
James Brimacombe
Mixon for me, I see no competition for him in that Bengals backfield and I believe that offense could be in for a big year. I am looking for volume and a clear path to that volume. With Gurley, there are injury/workload concerns. With Conner, you have Samuel -- and now Snell -- who can possibly steal extra carries from him.
Jason Wood
Although I think all three are viable choices at the back end of the first round, Todd Gurley would happily be my pick if he were still on the board. Yes, he has an arthritic knee. Yes, the Rams are going to manage his workload accordingly. Yes, he disappeared in the key fantasy weeks of 2018. But at 1.10 none of that matters. Gurley has been insistent his knee isn't an issue. And we'll have evidence of that soon enough. If he doesn't participate in practices during camp, I'll join in the group-think and discount him accordingly. But if he practices? He's an absolute steal anywhere past the fourth overall pick.
Chad Parsons
James Conner. Of the three, Conner is the best blend of team offense strength, his own health, plus having a track record of elite production. Mixon has the team strength question plus he has been good but not great thus far. Gurley has the health and usage question mark. I feel confident Conner will be the clear 1A option in Pittsburgh, and only injury will take Conner from said role and mid-RB1 or better projection for 2019.
Sigmund Bloom
Joe Mixon. Conner has the potential RBBC factor bringing him down. Gurley has the knee factor bringing him down. Meanwhile, Mixon has a potentially much improved offensive framework and offensive line to be the foundation for a breakout season that puts him in the neighborhood of the "big 4" by season's end.
Will Grant
Joe Mixon. That close to the turn, you have to be thinking about who will be available at 2.03 as well. Potential candidates for that pick are James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Odell Beckham and even a reach for Nick Chubb in a league with a big running back run in the first round.
Mixon doesn't give you the bye week / same team conflicts that taking Conner at 1.10 does. I'd rather take Mixon at that spot and keep my options open for my second round pick.
It's not uncommon to find Conner or even Gurley available at 2.03 in some Draft.com leagues that I've played in. Mixon is almost never available at 2.03. I'd happily pair Gurley with Mixon in any league, but you are much less likely to take Gurley first and have Mixon available.
Jeff Haseley
I'll take James Conner - We saw him produce equal, if not better, stats than LeVeon Bell in the Steelers offense last year. He's a capable rusher and receiving back, which in my book of factors, is at the top when evaluating the outlook of fantasy running backs. Pittsburgh loves to utilize their running backs in the passing game and Conner is no different. He had one game last season where he had less than three receptions and that was the blowout win against Carolina. He had only four games where he didn't score. I'll take those stats going away. Conner is my guy in this scenario.
Bob Henry
I'm solidly on Mixon here. Gurley still may have a higher upside, but he also carries significantly more risk whether his knee is degenerative, arthritic or not. Chances are, Gurley's health isn't going to get any better and over time the wear and tear will continue to plague him with swelling and the Rams are right to invest in another back to share the load or supplant him if he's out for any period of time.
Conner is the most likely to share the backfield and cede carries/touches to his peers. He was a workhorse last year, but he also didn't finish out the year. Jaylen Samuels provides a versatile, capable skill set and the Steelers spent some draft capital on Benny Snell, so while I think Conner is still the captain of the Steelers backfield, he may not see the same share of touches he enjoyed last year while putting up strong RB1 production.
With Mixon, we have a player who started to really shine last year. He reminds me of an ascending player like Gurley or Elliott who has untapped potential as a receiver and he's now playing for Zach Taylor, who seemingly will want to deploy him in similar ways to how they used Gurley in the passing game. Lest we forget Mixon caught 65 balls at Oklahoma averaging almost 14 yards per catch. He has the skills to be the next big thing at the RB position and I don't think RB1 is out of his reach if this offense clicks and ascends under Taylor's guidance.
The Bengals offense overall seems well poised to take a step forward whether it's playing at a faster tempo, getting A.J. Green back (and Eifert, too, if we can count on that), investments in the offensive line and potentially John Ross could take a step forward to add a vertical dimension they previously lacked.
All in on Mixon for me.
Clayton Gray
Vote Mixon! Dude will be picked in the top half of Round 1 in 2020.
Phil Alexander
Todd Gurley can say whatever he wants. Actions speak louder than words. Since the 2018 regular season ended, here's a summary of the Rams actions:
- Limited Gurley's workload in the playoffs and Super Bowl
- Matched a restricted free-agent offer sheet to Malcolm Brown
- Traded up to pick Darrell Henderson in Round 3 of the draft
- Shut Gurley down for OTAs
At this point, even if he plays the entire regular season, Gurley feels much closer to a running back who will receive about 55-60% of LA's backfield touches than the 80-90% we've grown accustomed to. Can he return second-round value on that workload if he hogs all of the Rams goal-line carries? Probably. But the overall RB1 upside is gone, and for goodness sake, fantasy football is hard enough. Why draft a player you already know is hurt?
There are plenty of reasons passing on Gurley for Mixon is the correct move:
- He is locked in for ~80% of his team's backfield touches
- Mixon is an excellent receiver who can thrive regardless of game-script
- Andy Dalton is back. You can love Dalton or hate him, but you can't deny he does more to boost an offense's potential than Jeff Driskel.
- As Sigmund alluded, the Bengals have invested their last two first-round picks to plug the holes in their offensive line. This won't be the same sorry unit up front we've seen since Kevin Zeitler and Andrew Whitworth were allowed to walk.
Conner belongs in this discussion too but his touches -- particularly his receptions -- have to be called into question at this point. Speculation of an "evenly spread out" backfield workload in Pittsburgh has come straight from Conner himself. A two-down grinder in the Steelers offense can still return first-round value, but I'll take Mixon -- the guy with the three-down skill-set to match his three-down role.
Ryan Hester
When evaluating multiple options, instead of thinking about the player I want, I start with the one I don't want. Among this group -- in mid-June at least -- Gurley is the player I'd eliminate. The question now is Conner vs. Mixon.
While I typically default to the better-projected offense with the majority of other factors seeming equal, this one is the rare exception. Mixon is the player I'd choose in the late first here.
Conner was a revelation last year, but Jaylen Samuels gives the team a Swiss Army knife type of weapon. And despite full-on "plodder" status, the team is saying nice things about rookie Benny Snell. The rookie is unlikely to take early-down work from Conner, but even if he takes goal line work only, that’s another ding to Conner’s value.
As he enters his third year, Mixon has a career trajectory that suggests better things are coming. His rookie year was positive and useful for fantasy football purposes; his second year was even better, as he relegated Giovani Bernard to full-time backup duty. Mixon is on a bad offense, but if he continues playing all three downs, he should still produce in spite of poor game scripts.
Dan Hindery
I will piggyback off of Phil's points because I agree completely with his analysis. Ignoring Gurley's health risk because he says he's fine feels like whistling past the graveyard. He said he was fine in the playoffs too but clearly didn't look like the Gurley we'd seen in the past. Plus, a big part of why Gurley was so dominant the last two seasons was that he rarely left the field. In the majority of his games last year, he played 89% or more of the snaps. Even if Gurley is able to stay healthy all season, the Rams have been explicit about their desire to manage his workload so he still has something left in the tank late in the season. The best case scenario is Gurley plays something like 60-70% of the snaps.
Meanwhile, Joe Mixon is healthy and looks poised to carry a heavy load for the Bengals. He will be playing in the same offensive system that allowed Gurley to breakout as a star in his third NFL season. The upside for Mixon is similar to Gurley (assuming Gurley's managed workload) without nearly the health-related risks.
James Conner looks great on paper and certainly has the potential to repeat his monster 2018 season. However, it just feels like his role is written in pencil instead of ink. Jaylen Samuels impressed late in the year as a pass catcher and 4th-round rookie Benny Snell could carve out a role as well. With good depth and no truly elite talents, Pittsburgh may employ more of a committee than they have in the past. Conner should at least lead the committee and is still a solid second round pick but I want a surefire workhorse back in the first round.
Andy Hicks
If any of these three were available at 1.10 I would be delighted, and faced with a hard choice in a non-PPR league. If this were a PPR league, I would favor Joe Mixon slightly. He is an ascendant talent and a new coaching team that has focused on the offensive line should be a massive boost for where this franchise should focus their offensive firepower.
That being said, it is for non-PPR and I, therefore, give a slight edge to Todd Gurley. Injury concerns aside, he is a proven commodity, especially with touchdowns and has elite running back skills. James Conner may make the best of his situation, but he is not the top class runner than Gurley is and will be. There have been many NFL running backs with degenerative knee issues that have managed it successfully, but obviously, we must see what he does in training camp before we get too excited.
All three runners had competition taken in the NFL draft, but if we are being honest it is more solid backup than a threat for the starting role.
Select Comments from Facebook
Mike P
Gurley has the highest ceiling, obviously, but his injury status is just too concerning. Mixon is a wildcard because of overall questions about the team. I’m going with Conner because he’s proven he can gain yards and score on the ground and through the air, and he’s in a situation where the Steelers love him and are going to feed him the ball. I just hope he comes into this year with a better haircut...
Chris L
Conner is now in a committee according to his team. Gurley is a huge risk at this stage. The correct answer is Mixon. What he did last year in 15 games behind a busted O Line, poor coaching and game script was nothing short of amazing. Improvement is coming.
Steve M
Conner .. with what looks to be my first pick in the draft I'd want a high and low ceiling guy. who will carry the load. Gurley has swelling in his need already, and they brought another running back in to limit his touches. The ceiling on Mixon is too low for me... he may outperform Conner but my opinion those chances are low.
Chris P
Missing picks 1-9 makes the decision making limited ... so I am assuming these are my best options for my draft board.
- Of the three, Gurley over Conner. High risk (knee), high reward workhorse who will be spelled more this year, but still has the talent and offense to explode.
- Pittsburgh will likely be high passing attack again and non-PPR makes an impact on value for Conner.
- Mixon is talent in a box. A box with no exit behind that O-line and limited attack to soften up a defense.
Al L
Hard to say pass on all three not knowing a lot of additional information but I would pick Mixon as I think he should be ranked higher than several other running backs including Gurley and Conner.
Kaleb B
Gurley bc I'm not as sold on his injury. We've known he has had arthritis since his bad injury in college. He just aggravated it. Gurley also had 352 touches last year and missed 4 games! Even if he loses 100 touches next year over 15 fantasy games (due to bye week) he will still have 252 ranking him 14th in total touches above Lamar Miller and below Payton Barber. That's an average of just over 8 touches a game in 12 games or less than 7 over 15 he loses. In that offense, I still think he earns 15 total TD making him a more than viable RB1, especially since most of those touches will probably be receptions it helps with the non-PPR touches.
Connors relies on a lot of catches from Big Ben, and only had 215 carries. That number isn't going up much more, even if he doesn't miss a few games.
Mixon is going to see a resurgence of the passing attack as Dalton tries to prove he's the franchise quarterback for a new regime. Although if you want a safe pick I see his total touches coming in very similar this year.
All in all, it's a simple numbers game. I'm taking the guy who will have the most touches in the best offense with the highest chance to score. Even with losing touches, Gurley checks all three of those boxes to me.
Jimmy D
Conner. He's in an established offense that will give him the ball. Mixon can't be trusted with that quarterback he has. That offense should be better every year but still stays the same. And Gurley's knee can't be trusted with such a high pick.
Joe B
At 1.10, it's time to gamble on a league winner in Gurley. It's a risk/reward pick for obvious reasons, but neither of the other two offers the same type of ceiling. I play to win.
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