The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Antonio Brown, Oakland
Jeff Haseley: It seems unlikely that Antonio Brown will produce at the same level as he did with Pittsburgh. Oakland will utilize him heavily, but how will that translate to touchdowns and fantasy points? Pittsburgh scored 34, 29, and 33 passing touchdowns in the last three years. Oakland scored 19, 23, and 29 in that same span. I will be shocked if he even comes close to his previous productivity with Pittsburgh.
Ryan Hester: The narrative is right for Brown to have a big year. He’s coming off a year that some would call a “down” year (touchdowns notwithstanding), and he’s on a new team trying to prove to the world that he was right for forcing his way off his old team. But the more concrete items work against Brown. There’s a fear of the unknown with a new offense; he’s on the wrong side of 30; and Oakland’s philosophy under Jon Gruden last season was originated in the Stone Age. At this point in the draft, selecting a younger player on a better unit feels more comfortable than taking Brown.
Daniel Simpkins: The more Oakland’s offense is examined, the more convinced we should become that Jon Gruden is going to make the running game, and particularly Josh Jacobs, the focal point of the offense. Brown’s ceiling is much lower than when he was with the Steelers. With fewer quality opportunities, he will not reach the statistical heights of the players that are being drafted around him at current ADP.
Maurile Tremblay: Antonio Brown has been the best wide receiver in the league over the past decade, but last season he was less effective than in previous seasons. Given his age, I believe a continued decline is more likely than a resurgence. Leaving Ben Roethlisberger for Derek Carr won't help.