The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit
James Brimacombe: Hockenson indeed is a talented player but we all see what happened with Mike Gesicki last season. Rookie TE's are just hard to get fantasy production out of right out of the gate. Hockenson's ADP is in the range of veteran TE's that can give you more reliable production.
Drew Davenport: The rookie is certainly set up to succeed. The Lions invested significant draft capital in him and it'll be assumed that he is the starter to begin the year. The problem is that the Lions are likely to see a significant reduction in pass volume, and new coordinator Darrell Bevell is not big on featuring the tight end position. Hockenson could certainly carve out a role, but the history of rookie tight ends making a fantasy impact in year one is not a good one. It's doubtful that Hockenson bucks this trend, and the risk is too high because of his current draft position.
Will Grant: Fantasy relevant tight end and Detroit Lions normally don’t go together in the same sentence, but a lot of people think T.J. Hockenson can change that. Maybe he can, but I don’t see it happening this season. Hockenson is being drafted as a primary backup or possible starter on fantasy teams and I don’t see that happening with a Detroit team who doesn’t normally involve the tight end position and Jesse James in the mix stealing touches as well.
Jason Wood: Hockenson is as close to a can’t miss prospect as we’ve seen in a generation. Unlike most of today’s tight ends, Hockenson is a devoted and powerful blocker in addition to having a refined approach as a receiver. Unfortunately, he’s not going to help fantasy teams this year. Even all-time great tight ends rarely do much as rookies, and Hockenson has the chips stacked against him. Detroit’s offense has question marks, and they’re planning on running a conservative, power-running approach. Hockenson is going to be more valuable to the Lions as a blocker this year, than a playmaker. Hockenson could be the most valuable offensive rookie in real football terms, but it would take a small miracle for him to justify a top-12 fantasy draft pick.