Eliminator Pool: Week 5

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

NFL Week 4 was the first week where the Upset Monster rose its ugly head, as the Rams somehow dropped a 55-40 contest at home to Tampa Bay. That loss was the first time this season where the staff had more than one loss on the week with five staff members losing with a pick on Los Angeles. Clayton Gray joined the "red club" with the Colts losing to the Raiders, pushing the group to six losses for Week 4 and nine on the season. Nine of the staff are still perfect, and this is the first week with Miami (bye) not available to pick against this season, so it could get a little tricky here in Week 5. As the staff chases more wins and the elusive perfect week, let's see how the Week 5 picks look.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

Week 4 was ugly for about >30% of most Survivor players, which just goes to show how difficult of a contest Survivor can be. Even taking teams favored at home by a wide margin is not a guarantee, and now we enter Week 5 with the Dolphins on a bye week - so there appear to be very few sure things (if any). As the calendar has clicked over to October, Week 5 has three teams favored by double-digits: New England (at Washington), Philadelphia (hosting the Jets) and Kansas City (vs. Indianapolis on Sunday Night Football). The staff has a set of picks that can best be described as "fractured", as five teams made the cut for Week 5. Philadelphia (7) and Kansas City (5) lead the way, taking up most of the picks on the week, and New England also made the grade with two staffers going with the Patriots in Washington. Two staffers went off of the majority picks and chose Houston (at home against Atlanta), while Alex Miglio saved the Chargers (hosting Denver) for his unique pick for Week 5. With five different teams represented across the group, there could be even more separation coming at the top of the standings come Monday.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Week 4 was a train wreck with the Rams' loss, and I am still getting over that debacle. How can a team score 40 points at home and lose? How can the Rams' defense give up 55 points? Unreal. Okay, time to move forward here. Three big favorites are clearly options this week with the Patriots at Washington as the first option. New England will be an option multiple times all year, so there is no real push to take them in this spot. The Chiefs are double-digit favorites at home against Indianapolis on Sunday Night Football, but the Colts are going to come in angry and will not want to be embarrassed in a showcase matchup on national television. That leaves the Eagles, who host the Jets this week. New York comes off of a bye, but Philadelphia had a mini-bye after a big road win in Lambeau last Thursday. The Eagles are in another must-win spot as they have three tough road games up next (at Minnesota, at Dallas, and at Buffalo), so getting their third win now is imperative. I had one other under consideration here in planning for the rest of the season, as there is not a better spot to use Chicago than in Week 5 - but a "road" game in London against the Raiders with the Bears having to turn to Chase Daniel at quarterback. Do not worry about the rest of the season - that is what Week 4 really taught us. Use the best big favorite with a little of a look ahead, and take a team that must win this week. If I had multiple entries this week I would use the Eagles about 50-75% of the time, followed by either the Bears or Chargers (hosting Denver, dark horse sneaky pick) and hope for the best on another tricky week.

The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Jeff Haseley: So far, the strategy of picking whoever the Dolphins plays has worked out well. With Miami on a bye, there are a few top choices - New England at Washington or Philadelphia vs NY Jets. I elected to go with Philadelphia this week despite the Jets coming off their bye. Philadelphia is at home and the Jets are trotting out Luke Falk. Sam Darnold will be back in a few weeks which means taking the opponent of the Jets has a small window before Darnold returns. Philadelphia has had its challenges this season, but the Jets have as well. If Philadelphia can't handle the 0-3 Jets with their third-string quarterback, then I deserve to lose this Survivor league. New England is another excellent pick this week, but my gut says to save the Patriots for later in the year, plus they still have to play Miami at New England. E-A-G-L-E-S, Eagles for the win!

The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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