Against The Spread Pool: Week 10

Footballguys' staff pick NFL games against the Las Vegas point spread

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Road Team:
SF
HOU
MIN
NYJ
IND
CHI
TEN
WAS
TB
DET
CLE
GB
NE
DAL
Home Team:
ARI
JAC
KC
MIA
PIT
PHI
CAR
BUF
SEA
OAK
DEN
LAC
BAL
NYG
Favorite:
SF
HOU
KC
NYJ
IND
PHI
CAR
BUF
SEA
OAK
CLE
GB
NE
DAL
Point Spread:
-9.5
-2.5
-2.5
-5.5
-0.5
-4.5
-3.5
-9.5
-6.5
-2.5
-2.5
-3.5
-3.5
-7.5
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
LW
Total
Danny Tuccitto
ARI
JAC
MIN
MIA
PIT
CHI
TEN
BUF
TB
DET
DEN
LAC
BAL
NYG
49
8
65
Dave Larkin
SF
JAC
KC
MIA
PIT
PHI
CAR
BUF
TB
OAK
CLE
GB
NE
NYG
37
8
70
Mark Wimer
ARI
HOU
MIN
MIA
IND
PHI
CAR
BUF
SEA
DET
DEN
GB
NE
DAL
35
8
72
James Brimacombe
SF
HOU
KC
NYJ
IND
PHI
CAR
BUF
TB
DET
CLE
LAC
NE
NYG
55
7
71
Jason Wood
ARI
HOU
MIN
NYJ
IND
PHI
CAR
BUF
TB
DET
CLE
GB
NE
DAL
55
7
63
Jeff Pasquino
SF
HOU
MIN
NYJ
IND
PHI
CAR
BUF
SEA
OAK
CLE
GB
BAL
DAL
47
7
69
Justin Howe
ARI
JAC
KC
MIA
IND
PHI
CAR
WAS
SEA
OAK
CLE
GB
NE
NYG
51
6
67
Andy Hicks
SF
JAC
KC
MIA
IND
CHI
TEN
WAS
SEA
OAK
DEN
GB
BAL
DAL
61
6
80
Keith Roberts
SF
HOU
MIN
MIA
IND
PHI
TEN
BUF
SEA
OAK
CLE
GB
NE
DAL
46
6
68
Devin Knotts
ARI
JAC
MIN
MIA
IND
CHI
CAR
WAS
TB
OAK
CLE
GB
NE
DAL
45
6
61
Phil Alexander
ARI
JAC
MIN
MIA
IND
CHI
TEN
BUF
TB
OAK
CLE
GB
BAL
NYG
43
6
69
Sean Settle
SF
HOU
MIN
MIA
IND
PHI
CAR
BUF
SEA
OAK
CLE
GB
NE
NYG
40
6
65
Alessandro Miglio
SF
JAC
KC
MIA
IND
CHI
CAR
WAS
SEA
OAK
DEN
GB
NE
NYG
53
5
73
Jeff Haseley
SF
JAC
KC
MIA
IND
CHI
CAR
BUF
TB
DET
CLE
GB
NE
NYG
46
5
68
Aaron Rudnicki
ARI
HOU
MIN
MIA
IND
CHI
TEN
WAS
SEA
DET
CLE
LAC
BAL
NYG
45
5
71
Andrew Garda
SF
HOU
MIN
MIA
IND
PHI
CAR
BUF
SEA
DET
CLE
GB
NE
NYG
45
5
65
William Grant
SF
HOU
MIN
MIA
IND
PHI
CAR
BUF
SEA
DET
CLE
GB
NE
NYG
44
5
55
Clayton Gray
SF
JAC
KC
NYJ
PIT
CHI
CAR
WAS
TB
DET
CLE
GB
NE
NYG
47
4
57
Matt Bitonti
SF
JAC
MIN
MIA
IND
PHI
TEN
WAS
SEA
DET
CLE
GB
BAL
NYG
58
3
61

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

Week 9 was a tougher week for the staff, as only three Footballguys' writers managed to post a winning record. Danny Tuccitto, Dave Larkin and Mark Wimer each went 8-6 in a challenging Week 9, and Danny had the highest point total for Monday Night Football, which won him the week. The staff was on the wrong side of several games, including three of their biggest calls. Losses by Green Bay (16) and Indianapolis (16) really hurt the group, as did missteps by Cleveland (15) and New England (13). Minnesota (12), San Francisco (12) and Seattle (11) failed to cover the numbers, which also added to the misfortune. The staff was on the right side of the scores with Miami (15), Carolina (13), Buffalo (12) and the Eagles (11) but the total record for the group was only 113-153 (42.5%), bringing the staff back under .500 for the year (1,270-1,295 [49.5%]). Table 1 highlights the 10 staffers with winning records (at least 68 wins) for the season, which is one less than last week. Five staffers are beating Las Vegas (over 52.3%) with 71 or more wins this year. Andy Hicks leads the way with 80 wins, well ahead of Alex Miglio (73), Mark Wimer (72), James Brimacombe (71) and Aaron Rudnicki (71). Just over half of the season is behind us, but there are still eight weeks to go. How will it all play out? Let's start finding out by taking a look at the Week 9 selections.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Road Team:
LAC
DET
BAL
ARI
KC
BUF
NYG
ATL
MIA
LAR
CAR
MIN
SEA
Home Team:
OAK
CHI
CIN
TB
TEN
CLE
NYJ
NO
IND
PIT
GB
DAL
SF
Favorite:
LAC
CHI
BAL
TB
KC
CLE
NYG
NO
IND
LAR
GB
DAL
SF
Point Spread:
-1.5
-2.5
-9.5
-4.5
-3.5
-2.5
-2.5
-12.5
-10.5
-3.5
-4.5
-2.5
-6.5
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
Total
Jeff Pasquino
OAK
CHI
BAL
TB
KC
BUF
NYG
NO
IND
LAR
GB
MIN
SF
51
69
Aaron Rudnicki
LAC
CHI
BAL
ARI
KC
BUF
NYG
ATL
MIA
LAR
GB
MIN
SEA
44
71
Alessandro Miglio
OAK
CHI
BAL
ARI
KC
BUF
NYJ
ATL
MIA
PIT
GB
DAL
SEA
55
73
Andrew Garda
OAK
DET
BAL
ARI
KC
BUF
NYG
NO
IND
LAR
GB
DAL
SF
45
65
Andy Hicks
OAK
CHI
BAL
ARI
KC
BUF
NYJ
ATL
MIA
LAR
GB
DAL
SEA
41
80
Clayton Gray
OAK
DET
BAL
TB
KC
CLE
NYJ
NO
IND
PIT
GB
MIN
SF
45
57
Danny Tuccitto
OAK
CHI
CIN
TB
TEN
BUF
NYJ
ATL
IND
PIT
GB
MIN
SF
49
65
Dave Larkin
OAK
CHI
BAL
ARI
KC
CLE
NYG
ATL
MIA
PIT
GB
DAL
SEA
41
70
Devin Knotts
LAC
DET
BAL
TB
KC
CLE
NYJ
ATL
MIA
LAR
GB
DAL
SEA
44
61
James Brimacombe
LAC
DET
BAL
ARI
KC
CLE
NYJ
NO
IND
PIT
GB
MIN
SF
47
71
Jason Wood
LAC
CHI
BAL
TB
KC
BUF
NYG
ATL
MIA
LAR
GB
DAL
SEA
44
63
Jeff Haseley
LAC
CHI
BAL
TB
TEN
BUF
NYG
NO
MIA
LAR
CAR
DAL
SEA
58
68
Justin Howe
OAK
CHI
BAL
ARI
KC
BUF
NYG
NO
MIA
LAR
CAR
MIN
SEA
40
67
Keith Roberts
OAK
DET
BAL
ARI
KC
CLE
NYG
ATL
IND
LAR
GB
DAL
SF
45
68
Mark Wimer
OAK
CHI
BAL
ARI
KC
BUF
NYG
NO
IND
LAR
GB
MIN
SEA
38
72
Matt Bitonti
OAK
DET
BAL
ARI
TEN
BUF
NYG
NO
MIA
PIT
GB
DAL
SF
52
61
Phil Alexander
OAK
CHI
BAL
ARI
KC
CLE
NYG
ATL
MIA
LAR
GB
MIN
SEA
49
69
Sean Settle
LAC
DET
BAL
ARI
KC
BUF
NYG
NO
IND
LAR
CAR
MIN
SEA
48
65
William Grant
OAK
DET
BAL
TB
KC
BUF
NYG
NO
IND
LAR
GB
DAL
SF
48
55

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

CONSENSUS WINNERS

There are an interesting mix of picks from the staff here in Week 10. Nearly everyone (18 of 19) have the Ravens winning by double-digits in Cincinnati, while both Green Bay at home and Kansas City on the road come in with over 80% (16 of 19) of the possible selections. No other game has more than 70% of the staff on one side. The next closest majority includes three road teams (Buffalo, the Giants and the Rams) and two underdogs (Oakland at home, Buffalo) all receiving 13 votes for the week. Three road underdog teams (Arizona, Seattle and Miami) and three home favorites (Chicago, Dallas, New Orleans) round out the group's selections for Week 10. If the Ravens, Chiefs and Packers all win and cover the spread, it will be a great Week 10 for the staff.

ODDS AND ENDS

The NFL season is now past the midway point of the schedule, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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