Against The Spread Pool: Week 5

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Week4 of the NFL season turned out to be the most difficult week yet. An upset by the Eagles on Thursday over the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field foreshadowed the week of upsets, which completely disrupted the Week 4 picks. Only 6 of 19 staff members in the pool picked the Eagles, and additional upsets ripped through the groups' selections for Week 4. Losses (against the spread) for the staff by the Chiefs (18 of 19 picks) and three road team upsets by the Titans over the Falcons (16), Carolina at Houston (13) and Tampa Bay over the Rams (12) pulled the group down overall despite the group winning with picks favoring the Giants (15) and Seattle (14). There were just 15 contests in Week 4, and the staff dropped 7 of their Top 11 picks (Chiefs, Falcons, Houston, Green Bay, Miami, Minnesota and the Los Angeles Rams), which led to the worst weekly record for the season (126-159, 44.2%). The poor showing pulled the group downwards once again for the season overall (580-664, 46.6%), highlighting just how difficult of a task picking NFL games against the spread can be, especially with picks due Wednesday night. Only five staffers had a winning week with eight or more wins, with Andy Hicks and James Brimacombe tying at the top of the weekly standings with nine correct picks. Any edged James on the tiebreaker, getting one point closer to the Monday Night Football total. Aaron Rudnicki, Alex Miglio and Danny Tuccitto ended Week 4 at 8-7, but clearly the staff is looking to rebound with their next set of picks. Let's move on to Week 5.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

CONSENSUS WINNERS

The staff is certainly looking towards a better performance in Week 5, and the group's picks are led by the Patriots (17 of 19) even with a big point spread (-14.5) to cover in Washington. New England has been dominant this season and Washington (0-4) has not shown much life so far this year. Two other home favorites come in with 14 picks this week, as both the Chargers (-6.5, hosting Denver) and the Chiefs (-10.5, vs. the Colts on Sunday Night Football) lead the way. The rest of the 15 contests on the week are pretty close picks across the group, as only three teams received 13 of 19 picks (Saints hosting Tampa Bay, Arizona at Cincinnat and Cleveland at San Francisco on Monday Night Football). Five underdogs are top picks this week (Cardinals, Browns, Jacksonville, Buffalo and Pittsburgh) - and only one of those teams is at home (Steelers, hosting Baltimore). Seven road teams are majority selections (New England, Arizona, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Chicago and Buffalo), but one of those "road' designations is a bit of a stretch as both the Bears and Raiders are traveling to London this week. As always, it will be fun and interesting to see how the games and the week plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

A quarter of the NFL season is already complete, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

Follow @JeffPasquino