Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
With the fantasy football season complete and the NFL shifting firmly to playoff mode, dynasty teams shift to 2020 NFL Draft mode with rookies drafts in a few months the next critical items on the to-do list. Here is an early look at the metrics of the 2020 class across the skill positions:
*Data included reference the author's projection model, designed to improve the probability of predicting skill position prospects to produce fantasy starter seasons in the NFL*
*With the declaration deadline not until mid-January, some of the non-senior prospects mentioned here may end up returning to school*
Quarterbacks
The three big names on the early quarterback board are Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert. With Burrow, he is essentially a one-hit-wonder with his meteoric rise for LSU this season and, at this point, the highest probable No.1 overall pick in the NFL Draft (Cincinnati Bengals). Burrow's production tracked for the projection model including categories like completion rate, yards-per-attempt, TD-INT ratio, and rushing average all check the boxes of a No.1 draft pick at quarterback historically. One outlier would be Burrow's age (23.8 years old for Week 1 of his rookie season) as the oldest 1.01 in the model's tracking, dating back to 1999. The other 23+ years old 1.01 picks have been Baker Mayfield, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, and David Carr. Burrow is closer in college sample size to Carr than the other three as a shorter-term starter.
Tagovailoa is the highest graded 2020 quarterback in the model at 99%. He's a touch old (22.5) for a junior exiting college, but everything else is there for an elite prospect. The curveball is Tua's healthy with his ankle and most recently his hip injury. Will he return to Alabama to complete his rehab and solidify his stock for 2021 or will he head to the NFL with being able to do little to nothing during the NFL Draft process? He has the profile to be a top-5, if not 1.01. The wildcard is how comfortable an NFL team is with his healthy, recovery, and future durability.
Herbert is the high-variance prospect of the three headliners with a lauded combination of size, athleticism, and arm strength. However, Herbert has been up-and-down with Oregon plus has his own durability question marks. Herbert checks all the metric boxes in the model, but less so compared to Tagovailoa, coming in at 89% overall. Herbert could be a top-10 pick or sag lower in Round 1. Herbert is more in the Josh Allen mold of the class with his faction of supporters and dissenters.
The potential sleepers and polarizing quarterbacks beyond the top-3 are Jacob Eason, Jalen Hurts, and Jake Fromm. Eason has the arm talent to be a top prospect. However, his profile is spotty with a questionable completion rate and Day 2 or lower-level TD-INT ratio and YPA. Hurts has everything on paper but the question is if he is a good enough passer for NFL success. Fromm has arm talent questions but has a sturdy metric profile overall (79%). Even deeper sleepers from the metric side include Sam Ehlinger (junior) at 92%, Anthony Gordon (senior) 88%, Kahlil Tate (senior) 87%, and Kaleb Barker (senior) 86%.
Running Backs
The running back position is historically elite if most-all of the eligible prospects declare in 2020. Seven underclassmen have 90% or higher current projection model overall scores. As a comparison, no running backs were higher than 86% for the 2019 class. This could be as good (or better) than the strong 2017 and 2018 classes.
Most of the top prospects in 2020 have minimal or no metrics holes too. Building the ideal running back prospect would include a 21-year-old NFL rookie start, good enough size and athleticism, and strong two-way production in college. J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, Jonathan Taylor, De'Andre Swift, and Chuba Hubbard all qualify across the board. Travis Etienne and AJ Dillon have quibbles with their REC scores but are rock-solid in the ATH (athleticism) and RUSH (rushing) categories. This list of running backs has not mentioned Najee Harris yet, who is likely top-75 bound in the NFL draft and 2019 riser Clyde Edwards-Helaire of LSU (junior) who could be top-100 bound with a good finish and draft process in the offseason. Edwards-Helaire as well we Hubbard (redshirt sophomore) are two of the top names who could push to a much weaker 2021 class for less competition as a top pick.
The sleeper subset in the model for running backs includes a host of well-balanced profiles destined for Day 3 considering the drove of elite prospects ahead of them. Ke'Shawn Vaughn (senior), James Robinson (senior), Zack Moss (senior), Ben LeMay (senior), and Michael Warren II (junior).
Wide Receivers
Wide receiver, like running back, is looking far better for 2020 than 2019. The 90%+ projection model score group includes underclassmen prospects Jerry Jeudy, Tee Higgins, Jalen Reagor, and Tylan Wallace with Wallace the most likely to return to school for his senior season with a torn ACL to close 2019. The seniors who returned this season also qualifying in the elite tier of the model are Bryan Edwards and Tyler Johnson with Edwards having a better-projected physical profile.
The next metric tier of underclassmen includes CeeDee Lamb (86% and projected for Round 1 of the NFL Draft, Laviska Shenault (86%) also in Round 1, Henry Ruggs III (78%) and Devonta Smith (80%. Some big boards and mock drafts have all of them and even Justin Jefferson (LSU, 61%) as Round 1 projections at this early stage. Of recent classes, 2015 had the most Round 1 receivers with six, which 2020 seems like to approach, match, or even surpass. The metrics profiles of the above-listed receivers for 2020 are better as a whole than the 2015 crop, which included the shaky profiles of Kevin White, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, and Phillip Dorsett, who combined for one fantasy starter season-to-date.
The physical freaks at receiver are present in every class and some can vault into Day 2 consideration with confirmation through pre-draft testing. For 2020 eligibles, those include Josh Imatorbhebhe, Tyrie Cleveland, Kirk Merritt, Devin Duvernay, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Want an elite producer but one with size and/or athleticism questions? Aaron Parker, Mason Kinsey, David Barnett (all small school prospects), Isaiah Hodgins, KJ Hamler, and Justin Jefferson (listed above) are the ones to quality entering the process.
Tight Ends
The tight end position lags behind the other three skill positions for 2020. It is unlikely any prospect projects as a Round 1 NFL Draft pick. The class does have strong metric prospects, however, with a host of >80% overall scores, headlined by Albert Okwuegbunam (redshirt junior from Missouri) at 99% overall in the model with a quality combination of size, movement, and elite production. His biggest question is durability, but the profile is sound on paper and he is likely gone by mid-Round 2 by the NFL. Jared Pinkney, Colby Parkinson, Jacob Breeland, and Hunter Bryant are other early top-100 NFL Draft projections, all with >80% overall metric scores.
The big question with tight ends is typically their athleticism as more NFL defenses are covering the position with non-linebackers than years ago and the sub-package linebackers getting more athletic themselves in recent iterations. With early athleticism data, the best bets for above-average athleticism scores in the class are Albert Okwuegbunam, Jared Pinkney, Charlie Taumoepeau (small school), Stephen Sullivan (LSU, positional convert from wide receiver), and Octavious Cooley (Mississippi, yet to produce much).
Final Thoughts
The 2020 class has an early projection as a dominant class regardless of dynasty league format. The centerpiece is the elite (and deep) top tiers of running backs and wide receivers. When combining the elite profiles with Round 1 (for receivers) and Day 2 or better (running backs) draft pedigree early projections, these groups alone could offer an entire first-round of the population for rookie drafts. This assumes a stock PPR format. Add quarterback and/or tight end premiums and the number would grow toward the mid-second round...and this assumes there are no 'rogue' selections which are driven by situational boosts in late April, which are bound to occur. This is the ideal year to have a bevy of rookie picks in general and specifically in the first 25-30 picks (even deeper in IDP formats). Also, like 2017-18, this class is more about the select players to avoid once we get to May rookie drafts than the select target players in 2019. Fish in a barrel is an appropriate term to begin the process.
Finally, thanks to all the readers in 2019 (and over the years) of this feature column. If you would like to keep up with my content during the NFL Draft season, I host the Under the Helmet dynasty podcast and run the content streams at UTHDynasty.com and the associated Patreon platform. NFL Draft season is the lifeblood of dynasty leagues with a year-round approach to dynasty trading, evaluating prospects, positioning in rookie drafts, team-building in startup drafts, and valuation shifts with NFL free agency and the NFL Draft. I will close this season's New Reality series with the tag line I use on all my podcasts: Never Settle, Refuse to be Average, and Keep Building Those Dynasties.
