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Here is an update on the quarterback touchdown regression data from 2018 and an early look at regression candidates from 2019:
TOUCHDOWN REGRESSION
2018 Regression List
- Patrick Mahomes II, 13.1% in 2018, currently 9.6% in 2019
- Russell Wilson, 12.5% in 2018, currently 9.9% in 2019
- Ryan Fitzpatrick, 10.4% in 2018, currently 6.0% in 2019
Quarterbacks above a 9.5% touchdown rate (on a per-completion basis) have regressed on average 94% of the time and by 2.9% per player the following season. On the flip side, Marcus Mariota, Case Keenum, and Derek Carr were on the positive regression list (5.0% or less touchdown rate) from 2018. Keenum and Mariota may not hit the threshold for attempts by the end of the season, but currently have 2.6% and 2.2% improvements from last year to conform to the 88% regression rate historically by an average of 2.6%. Carr is up from 5% to 7% as well in 2019.
Both groups combined are 6-for-6 as of now to follow the regression trends historically.
2019 Regression Hot List
- Mason Rudolph, 10.8%
- Russell Wilson, 9.9%
- Matthew Stafford, 9.9%
- Patrick Mahomes II, 9.6%
- Baker Mayfield, 4.5%
- Andy Dalton, 4.4%
- Mitchell Trubisky, 4.0%
- Kyler Murray, 3.8%
INTERCEPTION REGRESSION
2018 Regression List
- Ryan Fitzpatrick, 14.6% in 2018, currently 12.5%
- Jameis Winston, 10.4% in 2018, currently 10.9%
This is based on the rate on a per-incompletion basis. Winston is on pace through half of 2019 to break the historical 100% trend to regress downward previously by an average of 4.2%. On the positive side, quarterbacks below 4% interception rate last year include Matt Ryan at 3.8% (up to 9.6% this year), and Aaron Rodgers at 0.9% (up to 2% this year). Drew Brees at 4% was on the edge of the line as well in 2018 and has ballooned to 13.6% this year, second to Ryan Fitzpatrick of 2018 qualifiers for this year.
2019 Regression Hot List
- Sam Darnold, 15.4%
- Drew Brees, 13.6%
- Ryan Fitzpatrick, 12.5%
- Baker Mayfield, 12.4%
- Jimmy Garoppolo, 12.3%
- Jameis Winston, 10.9%
- Dak Prescott, 10.0%
- Matt Ryan, 9.6%
- Kyler Murray, 3.8%
- Jacoby Brissett, 3.7%
- Tom Brady, 3.7%
- Marcus Mariota, 3.1%
- Aaron Rodgers, 2.0%
- Gardner Minshew, 2.0%
- Russell Wilson, 1.3%
- Patrick Mahomes II, 1.2%
FANTASY PLAYOFF MATCHUPS
For strong contenders, it is time to start looking at playoff matchups. While Week 16 is the title week for fantasy football, I like to look at Week 15 more as a high-level team. Most prize structures are built where even getting to the championship game is worth 2-3x the entry fee, where teams losing in Week 15 are relegated to playing for third place where many get their entry fee back and maybe a little more. The loser of the third-place game may get nothing at all. In short, Week 15 is the high-leverage week of the season. Also, strong teams are angling for the bye week, which excludes Week 14 from their slate of matchups. For other playoff teams, Week 14 is the most important week.
quarterbacks
The Footballguys Adjusted Strength of Schedule tool (SOS) is a must-use feature on the site. I deplore raw SOS tools merely stating the points allowed by defenses to each position. More context is needed and Footballguys looks at the adjusted points allowed based on how the positions scored in other games compared to the defense in question. For quarterbacks, here are the matchups and players to note for the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16):
running backs
- Patriots
- Vikings
- Dolphins
- Ravens
- Bears
- Broncos
wide receivers
- Jets
- Colts
- Titans
- Buccaneers
- Jaguars
A healthy T.Y. Hilton can be huge down the stretch. Already mentioned is Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to cap their already-impactful first half of the season. D.J. Chark is another name to know with minimal target competition.
tight ends
- Texans
- Cardinals
- Colts
- Browns
- Seahawks
- Rams