The New Reality No.138: Regression Checkup, Playoff Matchups

Navigating the ever-changing landscape of dynasty fantasy football

Here is an update on the quarterback touchdown regression data from 2018 and an early look at regression candidates from 2019:


2018 Regression List

Quarterbacks above a 9.5% touchdown rate (on a per-completion basis) have regressed on average 94% of the time and by 2.9% per player the following season. On the flip side, Marcus Mariota, Case Keenum, and Derek Carr were on the positive regression list (5.0% or less touchdown rate) from 2018. Keenum and Mariota may not hit the threshold for attempts by the end of the season, but currently have 2.6% and 2.2% improvements from last year to conform to the 88% regression rate historically by an average of 2.6%. Carr is up from 5% to 7% as well in 2019.

Both groups combined are 6-for-6 as of now to follow the regression trends historically.

2019 Regression Hot List


2018 Regression List

This is based on the rate on a per-incompletion basis. Winston is on pace through half of 2019 to break the historical 100% trend to regress downward previously by an average of 4.2%. On the positive side, quarterbacks below 4% interception rate last year include Matt Ryan at 3.8% (up to 9.6% this year), and Aaron Rodgers at 0.9% (up to 2% this year). Drew Brees at 4% was on the edge of the line as well in 2018 and has ballooned to 13.6% this year, second to Ryan Fitzpatrick of 2018 qualifiers for this year.

2019 Regression Hot List

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