The New Reality No.137: Running Back and Wide Receiver Touchdown Regression Candidates

Navigating the ever-changing landscape of dynasty fantasy football

Touchdowns are NFL and fantasy football game-changers. While volume is nice (and a precursor to scoring), a touchdown shifts head-to-head matchups with a single play. Touchdown regression is the premise of betting on the big-picture probability of a player regressing towards the NFL average and/or their individual career average. Looking at the first eight weeks of the season, here are the regression candidates at running back and wide receiver:

running BACKS

POSITIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES

Leonard Fournette

Fournette had a hearty 3.5% rushing touchdown rate in his career (21 games) before his 2019 run of ice-cold touchdown production with a single score spanning 163 rushes, just 0.6%. Fournette is seeing the No.2 attempts inside the red zone of running backs (31) and is No.3 inside the 10-yard-line. However, Fournette is outside the top-25 in cracks inside the 5-yard-line and has a single score inside the 5-yard-line all season and is 0-for-13 between the 5 and 10-yard-line. These conversions are bound to get better over the second half of the season and Fournette is likely to see more than 0.5 attempts per game in the final eight games.

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