The New Reality No.136: Quarterback and Tight End Touchdown Regression Candidates

Navigating the ever-changing landscape of dynasty fantasy football

Touchdowns are NFL and fantasy football game-changers. While volume is nice (and a precursor to scoring), a touchdown shifts head-to-head matchups with a single play. Touchdown regression is the premise of betting on the big-picture probability of a player regressing towards the NFL average and/or their individual career average. Looking at the first seven weeks of the season, here are the regression candidates at quarterback and tight end:


Positive Regression Candidates

Andy Dalton

Dalton has his lowest career touchdown rate through seven games in 2019 at a paltry 2.8%. He was nearly doubled that over the past two seasons combined and 4.7% for his career. Even with a troubling offensive line and John Ross injured, A.J. Green should return soon (pending a potential trade) as a potential boost.

Jared Goff

After strong seasons in 2017 and 2018, Goff has waned to a 3.2% touchdown rate and 2.5% interception rate, both solidly worse than the previous two years. Goff's completion rate is also down and his YPA (yards-per-attempt) is down more than a yard. On the positive side, Goff has been one of the better quarterbacks in the red zone and inside the 10-yard-line with six touchdowns and no interceptions. The schedule is also conducive without a difficult matchup until (maybe) Dallas in Week 15 and San Francisco in Week 16.

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