New Reality No.131: Fantasy Trends and Regression

Navigating the ever-changing landscape of dynasty fantasy football

As the data points of a new season build, identifying early trends and regression value points is key. By position, here are the trends and regression trends to know in advance of Week 3:


Jared Goff is off to a bumpy start with a touchdown rate nearly half of the previous two seasons and a 7.0 yards-per-attempt where 8.0+ was his mark from the last two years as well. The weapons are sound with Cooper Kupp looks healthy in his huge Week 2 performance and Todd Gurley looks fresh (however not used as much as previous seasons in the passing game to-date). Recent trades including Goff for ideas include:

Baker Mayfield was crowned the next Patrick Mahomes II in the offseason, taking the NFL by storm. Through two weeks, however, Mayfield has a meager two touchdowns and four interceptions, 3.5% lower completion rate than last year, his touchdown rate cut in half with nearly double the interception rate. All this is with Odell Beckham Jr added to Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb the starting back from Week 1 as opposed to midseason a year ago. Mayfield is a strong regression candidate in the coming weeks and especially for the rest of the season. Recent trades including Mayfield for ideas include:

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