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Valdes-Scantling is Scintillating
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ("MVS") was one of three rookie receivers drafted by the Packers last year, in an attempt to infuse speed, youth, and talent into a receiving corps that had lost its luster when Jordy Nelson left town. Unfortunately, the trio didn't get an opportunity to put their best foot forward, as they were caught up in the maelstrom of a Packers locker room deeply divided by a star quarterback who had come to blame his head coach (and play-caller) for the Packers ineptitude. Aaron Rodgers frequently berated the young receivers and fixated on throwing to Davante Adams -- his only trusted playmaker -- to the detriment of the team's overall productivity.
But hope springs eternal, as Matt LaFleur takes over as head coach and is promising a more creative, explosive, and adaptable passing attack. In order for LaFleur's plans to come to fruition, one of the Packers young receivers has to emerge as a viable every-down alternative to Adams. While nothing is set in stone, and a lot can change as training camp and the preseason get underway, right now the savvy move is to draft Valdes-Scantling as your WR4 or WR5 in the 10th round or later, and possibly reap the rewards of a breakout WR2 if the dominoes fall into place.
- Aaron Rodgers remains one of the league's best passers
- The No. 2 receiver in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense has the rare combination of a high floor and high ceiling
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the best of the Packers young receivers
- Valdes-Scantling has made believers of all the key people in the organization, from the GM to the new coaches to Rodgers to Davante Adams
- New head coach Matt LaFleur is promising a more aggressive, adaptable, and productive passing attack
Stating the Obvious – Aaron Rodgers' No. 2 Receiver is a Fantasy Asset
It shouldn’t take a Ph.D. in statistical analysis to know securing the No. 2 receiver role in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense has historically been a good thing.
WR1
|
Rank
|
Target %
|
Season
|
WR2
|
Rank
|
Target %
|
Greg Jennings
|
WR4
|
0.266
|
2008
|
Donald Driver
|
WR23
|
0.221
|
Donald Driver
|
WR20
|
0.206
|
2009
|
Greg Jennings
|
WR21
|
0.217
|
Greg Jennings
|
WR4
|
0.236
|
2010
|
James Jones
|
WR44
|
0.164
|
Jordy Nelson
|
WR2
|
0.178
|
2011
|
Greg Jennings
|
WR18
|
0.187
|
James Jones
|
WR16
|
0.18
|
2012
|
Randall Cobb
|
WR19
|
0.191
|
Jordy Nelson
|
WR12
|
0.229
|
2013
|
James Jones
|
WR42
|
0.168
|
Jordy Nelson
|
WR3
|
0.284
|
2014
|
Randall Cobb
|
WR6
|
0.239
|
James Jones
|
WR23
|
0.175
|
2015
|
Randall Cobb
|
WR31
|
0.228
|
Jordy Nelson
|
WR2
|
0.248
|
2016
|
WR7
|
0.197
|
|
WR12
|
0.211
|
2017
|
Randall Cobb
|
WR42
|
0.166
|
|
WR3
|
0.275
|
2018
|
WR66
|
0.119
|
||
Average WR1
|
WR9
|
0.226
|
|
Average WR2
|
WR29
|
0.191
|
On average, Rodgers’ No. 2 receiver has finished WR29 – making them a solid but not spectacular starter in 3-WR lineups. But there’s a wide variance, as his No. 2 has been a top-8 fantasy receiver twice, but has been as low as WR66 (last year).
Standing Out in a Crowd
As mentioned, Valdes-Scantling was one of three rookie receivers drafted by the Packers last year; J'Mon Moore and Equanimeous St. Brown were the others. They were joined by second-year Geronimo Allison, at least early in the season before Allison got hurt and missed most of the final three months of the season. Let's compare the four youngsters:
Packers Young Receiver Comparison
Player
|
Games
|
Targets
|
Rec
|
Ctc%
|
Yards
|
TDs
|
YPR
|
Height
|
Weight
|
DraftRound
|
40yd
|
Radius
|
Yds/RT
|
DeepRT%
|
DeepCt%
|
16
|
72
|
38
|
52.8%
|
581
|
2
|
15.3
|
6-foot-4
|
206 lbs
|
5th Round
|
4.37
|
10.1
|
1.22
|
28.0%
|
42.1%
|
|
Equanimeous St.Brown
|
12
|
36
|
21
|
58.3%
|
328
|
0
|
15.6
|
6-foot-5
|
204 lbs
|
6th Round
|
4.48
|
10.5
|
1.33
|
32.4%
|
18.2%
|
5
|
30
|
20
|
66.7%
|
303
|
2
|
15.2
|
6-foot-3
|
196 lbs
|
Undrafted
|
4.67
|
9.89
|
1.78
|
25.0%
|
33.3%
|
|
JMon Moore
|
12
|
3
|
2
|
66.7%
|
15
|
0
|
7.5
|
6-foot-3
|
190 lbs
|
4th Round
|
4.60
|
10.39
|
0.56
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
MVS led the quartet in targets, receptions, yards and fantasy points. Of the three rookies, it's hard not to completely write off J'Mon Moore given his complete lack of role. He's more likely playing against Trevor Davis and Jake Kumerow for a roster spot than vying for significant snaps. MVS and Equanimeous St. Brown both ran vertical routes frequently (28% and 32%, respectively), but MVS was far more successful; he caught 42% of his deep targets compared to St. Brown's paltry 18% catch rate. MVS has elite speed, and although his catch radius isn't quite up to St. Brown's level, it's well above average.
It's important to mention Geronimo Allison was the clear-cut No. 2 at the start of the season but was sidelined for all but a few plays over the final 12 games, ultimately opting for surgery to repair a core muscle. Prior to his injury, Allison was on pace for 116 targets, 76 receptions, 1,156 yards, and 8 touchdowns. If Allison is healthy, and LaFleur likes what he sees, he could be the breakout star over Valdes-Scantling. But the good news is Allison appears set to transition into the team's primary slot receiver -- an important role but one that wouldn't keep MVS from breaking out as the No. 2 outside option. If Allison lights it up in the preseason and doesn't get pigeon-holed into the slot, all bets are off. For now, we'll assume Allison isn't playing for the same piece of the pie.
Can Matt LaFleur Increase the Size of the Pie?
The $64,000 question is whether new head coach Matt LaFleur is going to improve the Packers offense. The fantasy analyst community widely praised LaFleur's hire, but one has to wonder if the near-universal praise was more about Mike McCarthy’s departure than LaFleur’s arrival. Any coach who spent even a nanosecond with Sean McVay has been dubbed the “next big thing” and LaFleur’s year as McVay’s offensive coordinator in Los Angeles is a big part of the enthusiasm. But we don’t really know what to expect from LaFleur as a play-caller. He didn’t call plays under McVay but finally got this shot in Tennessee last season. It didn’t go particularly well.
2018 Titans Offensive Ranks (Out of 32 Teams)
Season
|
Team
|
Role
|
Yards
|
Points
|
RushAtts
|
RushYards
|
RushTDs
|
PassAtts
|
PassYards
|
PassTDs
|
2018
|
TEN
|
OC
|
25
|
27
|
9
|
6
|
11
|
31
|
29
|
28
|
The Packers brass didn’t put much weight in Tennessee’s offensive travails, so maybe we shouldn’t either. Marcus Mariota was terrible, and the receiving corps lacked playmakers. Putting Aaron Rodgers into the same offensive scheme in place of Mariota is equivalent to replacing a Toyota Prius with a McLaren.
That said, enthusiasm around LaFleur is more aspirational than empirical. LaFleur spent years under Kyle Shanahan, who rarely used 11-personnel (3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB), but did create a powerful, effective running game. He then worked under McVay, who has taken the use of 11-personnel to a new level (the Rams ran 3-WR sets nearly 90% of the time last year). In Tennessee, LaFleur showed little consistency and used all manner of formation throughout the season. He dubbed it “experimenting,” but that’s not going to be good enough in Green Bay.
There’s no denying Mike McCarthy’s time was up. The divorce was acrimonious, and Rodgers is too talented to let conflict ruin his last few years of prime value. But don’t let the ill will between Rodgers and McCarthy confuse the reality – McCarthy has been a very successful NFL play-caller.
Mike McCarthy Offenses (By Team Rank)
Season
|
Team
|
Role
|
Yards
|
Points
|
RushAtts
|
RushYards
|
RushTDs
|
PassAtts
|
PassYards
|
PassTDs
|
2000
|
NOR
|
OC
|
10
|
10
|
7
|
8
|
12
|
22
|
14
|
9
|
2001
|
NOR
|
OC
|
10
|
13
|
20
|
18
|
26
|
6
|
10
|
4
|
2002
|
NOR
|
OC
|
19
|
3
|
19
|
17
|
11
|
21
|
16
|
3
|
2003
|
NOR
|
OC
|
11
|
14
|
15
|
11
|
20
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
2004
|
NOR
|
OC
|
15
|
14
|
26
|
27
|
8
|
10
|
12
|
16
|
2005
|
SFO
|
OC
|
32
|
30
|
20
|
17
|
25
|
31
|
32
|
32
|
2006
|
GNB
|
HC
|
9
|
22
|
21
|
23
|
23
|
1
|
8
|
20
|
2007
|
GNB
|
HC
|
2
|
4
|
28
|
21
|
13
|
6
|
2
|
6
|
2008
|
GNB
|
HC
|
8
|
5
|
14
|
17
|
24
|
9
|
8
|
5
|
2009
|
GNB
|
HC
|
6
|
3
|
15
|
14
|
5
|
10
|
7
|
4
|
2010
|
GNB
|
HC
|
9
|
10
|
20
|
24
|
18
|
16
|
5
|
4
|
2011
|
GNB
|
HC
|
3
|
1
|
26
|
27
|
16
|
14
|
3
|
1
|
2012
|
GNB
|
HC
|
13
|
5
|
16
|
20
|
25
|
16
|
9
|
2
|
2013
|
GNB
|
HC
|
3
|
8
|
12
|
7
|
5
|
18
|
6
|
13
|
2014
|
GNB
|
HC
|
6
|
1
|
14
|
11
|
11
|
20
|
8
|
3
|
2015
|
GNB
|
HC
|
23
|
15
|
12
|
12
|
21
|
18
|
25
|
11
|
2016
|
GNB
|
HC
|
8
|
4
|
29
|
20
|
20
|
5
|
7
|
1
|
2017
|
GNB
|
HC
|
26
|
21
|
27
|
17
|
11
|
14
|
25
|
12
|
2018
|
GNB
|
HC
|
12
|
14
|
32
|
22
|
15
|
3
|
9
|
20
|
Average Before Green Bay
|
16
|
14
|
18
|
16
|
17
|
16
|
15
|
12
|
||
Average in Green Bay
|
10
|
9
|
20
|
18
|
16
|
12
|
9
|
8
|
||
Overall Average
|
12
|
10
|
20
|
18
|
16
|
13
|
11
|
9
|
- McCarthy’s offenses have averaged 10th in points and 12th in yards over 19 seasons
- He’s fielded top-10 offenses in 10 of 19 seasons
- His offenses have only been below league average three times in 19 seasons
What we do know of LaFleur is a promise of more vertical passing and an emphasis on speed at the receiver position. Throwing deep is not unusual for Rodgers, he was second in the league last year with 87 attempts of 20+ yards. But where LaFleur hopefully brings improvement is in the design of the vertical route tree. Many of Rodgers throws were improvisational after Rodgers checked out of the called play, or after the protection scheme broke down. If LaFleur has his way, receivers will be put in positions to win downfield, with blocking schemes designed to give Rodgers time to find them.
One of the best things about drafting Valdes-Scantling is it’s not contingent on getting LaFleur’s system right. If MVS wins the No. 2 job, it won’t matter how much LaFleur uses 11-personnel. If LaFleur’s system doesn’t create better downfield opportunities, we know Rodgers isn’t above audibling just as he did with McCarthy. And most importantly, MVS’s average draft position is low enough that you don’t need the Packers offense to bounce back to Top-10 status in order to generate a positive return.
Has MVS Won the No. 2 Job?
Not quite yet. Nothing is official, and won’t be until the new coaching staff has enough time in training camp to feel comfortable with the depth chart. It goes without saying if MVS isn’t named the starter opposite Davante Adams, his outlook dims. But there’s plenty of reason for optimism:
- Valdes-Scantling lined up as a starter in June OTAs
- Aaron Rodgers is a believer. Rodgers – who was venomously critical of the Packers young receivers last year – has come around on Valdes-Scantling, in particular. “I think Marquez [Valdes-Scantling] has had a fantastic spring and really stepped up as a guy who can be an every-down player,” said Rodgers during June OTAs.
- Davante Adams is a believer. “I think this offense is really catered for a guy like [Valdes-Scantling],” Adams said. “I think he’s seeing that and he’s recognizing it. We’ve had conversations about it, and I think he’s really starting to understand how this thing works. He’s come in and he’s made some plays. And I think that with young guys, it’s hard to know exactly how to deal with that early success, but he’s doing a great job of it right now. I saw the way he hit it in the offseason -- from videos and just our communication -- and he’s taking it real serious right now.”
- The coaches are starting to believe. SI’s Albert Breer visited the Packers during OTAs and noted how excited the coaches are with MVS. “Name to watch in Green Bay going into minicamp, and training camp: Second-year receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The 6' 4", 206-pound 24-year-old is faster than the new staff anticipated he’d be, and has quickly picked up Matt LaFleur’s system, which is significantly different than Mike McCarthy’s. You know how big Aaron Rodgers’s arm is, and the Packers quarterback hasn’t been able to overthrow him in OTAs.”
Stats and Projections
Season
|
Player Stats/Projectors
|
Games
|
Rushes
|
RuYards
|
RuTDs
|
Targets
|
Recs
|
ReYards
|
ReTDs
|
FumL
|
2018
|
16
|
2
|
29
|
0
|
72
|
38
|
581
|
2
|
|
|
2019
|
David Dodds
|
16.0
|
3
|
16
|
0.0
|
|
48.0
|
696
|
4.3
|
0.4
|
2019
|
Bob Henry
|
15.5
|
6
|
50
|
0.3
|
|
45.0
|
650
|
5.3
|
0.0
|
2019
|
Jason Wood
|
16.0
|
1
|
10
|
0.0
|
|
57.0
|
855
|
5.0
|
0.0
|
2019
|
Maurile Tremblay
|
16.0
|
2
|
13
|
0.0
|
|
36.6
|
525
|
2.7
|
0.4
|
Final Thoughts
His quarterback believes. His teammates believe. His new coach believes. The beat writers believe. And the data backs up the platitudes. If the competitive world of fantasy football, it’s hard to find multi-round value arbitrage opportunities consistently, and drafting Valdes-Scantling as a breakout is one of the prime examples this draft season. As long as Matt LaFleur’s offense isn’t a complete flop and Aaron Rodgers approximates the productivity we’ve come to expect under Mike McCarthy, Valdes-Scantling may well be your every-week WR2 this season.
Other Viewpoints
Footballguys' own Matt Waldman also sees Valdes-Scantling as an enticing sleeper:
"Green Bay's depth chart is a crowded one but beyond the intriguing Jake Kumerow, Scantling's athletic ability and quick acclimation outpaced the rest of the depth chart competing for this third spot in the starting rotation. Considering that Aaron Rodgers had an "off-year" in 2018 with 4,442 yards, 25 touchdown passes, and 2 interceptions, there's room for Valdes-Scantling to deliver fantasy WR3 production in this offense if Rodgers and the offense rebounds.
I believe Rodgers will return to the elite and Scantling has every-down upside as a starter. Think production in the realm of James Jones' 2015 season if everything goes well."
4for4's Matthew Gajewski also thinks Valdes-Scantling is worth the price:
"Despite the up-and-down nature of his rookie campaign, MVS showed a number of positive indicators heading into his second year. Not only did he play in and out of the slot, but he showed an ability to make big plays when given increased playing time."
FFStatistics Peter Behnke likes MVS' chances to break out:
"MVS has a good chance to break out in his second year because his opportunity should increase significantly. Randall Cobb moved to the Dallas Cowboys in the offseason and as the table below shows, MVS performed better when Cobb was on the sideline. In 2018, MVS played 8 games with Cobb and averaged 5.89 points. MVS played in 7 games without Cobb and his average points scored per game increased to 9.13."