Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the 14th edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
Playoff intensity is in the air. There is nothing quite like earning the bragging rights by beating a friend or colleague in the fantasy playoffs, seeing the fruits of your season-long labors as you lift the trophy. That comes in time; for now, the focus must remain on the week ahead. If you are playing in a standard league, your playoffs are either here or they are coming up. Either way, the decisions you make over the next few weeks will define your season. Let’s use the match-ups to their fullest to make it a memorable finish.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s matchups.
Team Defense | Team Offense | |||||||||
LEAGUE AVG | Pressure Applied | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure Allowed | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | ||
AVERAGE | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | ||||
2016 NFL Average | 14.2% | 2.18 | 5.37 | 37.8 | 14.2% | 2.18 | 5.37 | 37.8 | ||
2017 NFL Average | 15.1% | 2.33 | 5.49 | 36.5 | 15.0% | 2.33 | 5.49 | 36.5 | ||
2018 NFL Average | 15.0% | 2.50 | 5.56 | 37.0 | 15.0% | 2.50 | 5.56 | 37.0 | ||
2019 NFL Average | 15.1% | 2.61 | 5.66 | 37.4 | 15.1% | 2.61 | 5.66 | 37.4 | ||
Team Defense | Team Offense | |||||||||
Pressure Applied | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure Allowed | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |||
Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |||||
ARIZONA Cardinals | 14.2% | 2.5 | 5.8 | 41.1 | 11.0% | 3.5 | 4.3 | 39.3 | ||
ATLANTA Falcons | 12.1% | 1.5 | 4.3 | 35.3 | 18.0% | 3.3 | 8.3 | 46.3 | ||
BALTIMORE Ravens | 18.6% | 2.3 | 6.8 | 36.8 | 11.8% | 2.0 | 3.6 | 30.3 | ||
BUFFALO Bills | 15.7% | 3.1 | 6.0 | 38.2 | 15.6% | 2.3 | 5.3 | 34.3 | ||
CAROLINA Panthers | 17.0% | 3.8 | 6.7 | 39.3 | 15.6% | 3.7 | 6.5 | 41.7 | ||
CHICAGO Bears | 13.8% | 2.3 | 5.3 | 38.6 | 13.3% | 2.8 | 5.1 | 38.2 | ||
CINCINNATI Bengals | 13.7% | 1.7 | 4.4 | 32.3 | 13.5% | 3.4 | 5.7 | 41.9 | ||
CLEVELAND Browns | 15.8% | 2.9 | 5.6 | 35.4 | 11.9% | 2.7 | 4.4 | 37.0 | ||
DALLAS Cowboys | 16.7% | 2.3 | 6.1 | 36.4 | 14.1% | 1.7 | 5.5 | 39.0 | ||
DENVER Broncos | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.5 | 34.3 | 14.1% | 3.0 | 4.8 | 34.3 | ||
DETROIT Lions | 11.2% | 2.0 | 4.4 | 39.5 | 14.4% | 2.6 | 5.6 | 38.8 | ||
GREEN BAY Packers | 16.7% | 2.3 | 6.0 | 36.0 | 14.8% | 2.3 | 5.5 | 37.1 | ||
HOUSTON Texans | 14.4% | 2.2 | 5.8 | 39.9 | 16.9% | 3.0 | 6.0 | 35.4 | ||
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 14.8% | 2.7 | 5.3 | 35.9 | 17.1% | 2.0 | 5.9 | 34.6 | ||
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 17.8% | 3.2 | 6.3 | 35.2 | 13.3% | 2.7 | 5.3 | 40.3 | ||
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 14.2% | 2.8 | 5.4 | 38.3 | 12.5% | 1.7 | 4.8 | 38.7 | ||
LOS ANGELES Chargers | 14.0% | 2.1 | 4.3 | 30.9 | 15.5% | 2.2 | 6.1 | 39.3 | ||
LOS ANGELES Rams | 14.4% | 3.2 | 5.7 | 39.3 | 12.6% | 1.6 | 5.0 | 39.7 | ||
MIAMI Dolphins | 12.2% | 1.3 | 4.2 | 34.3 | 22.0% | 4.1 | 9.0 | 40.8 | ||
MINNESOTA Vikings | 15.9% | 2.8 | 6.3 | 39.8 | 13.9% | 1.8 | 4.4 | 31.7 | ||
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 18.6% | 3.3 | 6.8 | 36.3 | 13.6% | 1.8 | 5.8 | 42.8 | ||
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 16.4% | 3.7 | 6.8 | 41.8 | 10.3% | 1.4 | 3.9 | 38.0 | ||
NEW YORK Giants | 14.8% | 2.2 | 5.1 | 34.4 | 19.0% | 2.9 | 7.8 | 41.2 | ||
NEW YORK Jets | 15.4% | 2.3 | 6.1 | 39.5 | 20.6% | 3.8 | 7.5 | 36.4 | ||
OAKLAND Raiders | 11.2% | 2.3 | 4.0 | 35.8 | 8.9% | 1.5 | 2.9 | 32.9 | ||
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 18.6% | 2.8 | 7.1 | 38.0 | 15.7% | 2.5 | 6.2 | 39.2 | ||
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 19.6% | 3.6 | 7.4 | 37.9 | 12.7% | 1.6 | 4.3 | 34.2 | ||
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 17.3% | 3.8 | 5.8 | 33.2 | 15.7% | 2.0 | 5.0 | 31.9 | ||
SEATTLE Seahawks | 11.0% | 1.9 | 4.6 | 41.5 | 18.4% | 2.9 | 6.4 | 34.8 | ||
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 15.1% | 2.8 | 6.8 | 44.6 | 17.0% | 3.3 | 7.2 | 42.3 | ||
TENNESSEE Titans | 14.6% | 2.8 | 6.0 | 41.2 | 20.8% | 4.1 | 6.7 | 32.1 | ||
WASHINGTON Redskins | 15.8% | 3.0 | 5.7 | 35.8 | 19.0% | 3.3 | 6.2 | 32.4 | ||
Strong Matchup | ||||||||||
Neutral | ||||||||||
Weak Matchup |
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
Tampa Bay pass rushers vs. Indianapolis
Don’t look now, but the Bucs are poised to string together a strong winning streak to finish the season. Their defense, littered with talent – and especially talented pass rushers – has played a large role in their late-season resurgence. Notching six and five sacks, respectively, over their last two games, the pieces are falling into place for Bruce Arians and his staff. If Jameis Winston can remain mistake-free, or at least make fewer mistakes, the Bucs have the chance to build a strong lead against a feeble Indianapolis offense. The game script is pivotal for this pass rush, a unit that has only recorded a sack percentage of 6.2% this season, to truly go off.
The Colts struggle to protect the passer on the road, with a sack-allowed percentage of 7.3% compared to 4.9% at home in the dome. The Indianapolis offensive line has been solid this season, but their solidity has slowly evaporated of late. Giving up pressure on 17.1% of dropbacks, they have managed to limit sacks to two per game; that may all change if the game script gets away from them here. Bet on the Bucs to thrive.
Key stat: The Bucs defense averages 6.8 quarterback hits per game.
Philadelphia pass rushers vs. New York Giants
This is a plum spot for the Eagles to put their Miami debacle behind them – and fast. A Monday Night Football clash against a division rival, and not a very good one, bodes very well for a pass rush that needs a cupcake to stomp upon. The Giants have allowed 7.8 quarterback hits per game and, due to negative game scripts, have 41.2 dropbacks per game. Neither number should encourage the Giants brass that this game will be anything except a comfortable Eagles win.
Indeed, Vegas concurs with that assessment, with the Eagles currently favored by 9.5 points. The implied game script is for a shellacking of epic proportions, and one would assume Doug Pederson will be egging his team on to make a statement with the world watching – we are not done, and we shall not go quietly. On the road, the Giants offensive line has allowed pressure on 19.7%. Expect a long night for Daniel Jones and a bountiful one for Philadelphia’s pass rush.
Key stat: The Eagles defense has applied pressure on 18.6% of dropbacks this season, with the league average at 15.1%.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Tennessee pass rushers at Oakland
There is no doubt the Raiders find themselves in a bit of a slump. Dropping back to back games against the Jets and Chiefs, and being outscored comprehensively in each, will have dented this young team’s confidence. And yet the one shining light, the consistent force for this roster has been its offensive line, a unit that has allowed the second-fewest sacks in the league (18). That kind of solid platform will make things tough for their visitors, Tennessee.
The Titans are heading into this game with the playoffs in mind, but an inability to rush the passer could severely hinder that goal. The Titans have been a middle of the road unit as pass rushers, applying pressure on just 14.6% of dropbacks and only 2.8 sacks per game. This is despite the fact they have faced an average of 41.2 dropbacks per game. It all points to a blunt pass-rushing force incapable of causing the home team much trouble. In a high-pressure spot for the Titans, the recommendation is to fade their pass-rushing assets.
Key stat: The Raiders have allowed pressure on just 8.9% of dropbacks, though that number ticks up to 10.2% at home.
TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | |||||||||||
Tackle Opportunity | Rush Attempts faced | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush Percentage | |||
AVERAGE | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | |||||
2016 NFL Average | 50.0 | 25.3 | 37.8 | 63.1 | 40.1% | 50.0 | 25.3 | 37.8 | 63.1 | 40.1% | ||
2017 NFL Average | 49.6 | 26.1 | 36.5 | 62.6 | 41.9% | 49.7 | 26.1 | 36.5 | 62.6 | 41.7% | ||
2018 NFL Average | 50.0 | 25.1 | 37.0 | 62.2 | 40.5% | 50.1 | 25.1 | 37.0 | 62.2 | 40.5% | ||
2019 NFL Average | 50.0 | 25.1 | 37.4 | 62.7 | 40.2% | 50.4 | 25.1 | 37.4 | 62.5 | 40.2% | ||
TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | |||||||||||
Tackle Opportunity | Rush Attempts faced | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush Percentage | |||
Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | ||||||
ARIZONA Cardinals | 56.7 | 26.7 | 41.1 | 67.6 | 39.4% | 49.2 | 22.8 | 39.3 | 62.1 | 36.8% | ||
ATLANTA Falcons | 50.4 | 26.1 | 35.3 | 62.3 | 42.5% | 53.3 | 20.6 | 46.3 | 66.8 | 30.8% | ||
BALTIMORE Ravens | 43.9 | 20.5 | 36.8 | 58.2 | 35.8% | 56.5 | 35.6 | 30.3 | 65.8 | 54.1% | ||
BUFFALO Bills | 46.3 | 22.7 | 38.2 | 62.4 | 37.3% | 50.9 | 29.0 | 34.3 | 63.3 | 45.8% | ||
CAROLINA Panthers | 51.7 | 25.1 | 39.3 | 64.3 | 39.0% | 50.8 | 24.3 | 41.7 | 65.9 | 36.8% | ||
CHICAGO Bears | 51.4 | 25.4 | 38.6 | 63.3 | 39.7% | 48.4 | 22.8 | 38.2 | 60.9 | 37.3% | ||
CINCINNATI Bengals | 52.6 | 31.0 | 32.3 | 63.1 | 49.0% | 46.8 | 21.2 | 41.9 | 63.1 | 33.6% | ||
CLEVELAND Browns | 48.3 | 25.3 | 35.4 | 60.8 | 41.7% | 48.1 | 25.0 | 37.0 | 62.0 | 40.3% | ||
DALLAS Cowboys | 49.1 | 24.8 | 36.4 | 60.5 | 40.5% | 52.3 | 26.9 | 39.0 | 65.9 | 40.8% | ||
DENVER Broncos | 50.9 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 60.7 | 44.6% | 47.1 | 25.0 | 34.3 | 59.3 | 42.2% | ||
DETROIT Lions | 51.0 | 26.0 | 39.5 | 66.6 | 39.7% | 51.4 | 26.3 | 38.8 | 65.0 | 40.4% | ||
GREEN BAY Packers | 49.1 | 25.8 | 36.0 | 63.3 | 41.7% | 48.2 | 23.4 | 37.1 | 60.5 | 38.7% | ||
HOUSTON Texans | 50.1 | 23.6 | 39.9 | 63.4 | 37.1% | 51.7 | 26.3 | 35.4 | 61.8 | 42.6% | ||
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 47.9 | 22.3 | 35.9 | 58.5 | 38.3% | 52.4 | 30.1 | 34.6 | 64.7 | 46.5% | ||
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 49.2 | 25.7 | 35.2 | 61.9 | 42.2% | 49.9 | 24.0 | 40.3 | 64.3 | 37.4% | ||
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 51.8 | 27.1 | 38.3 | 65.9 | 41.5% | 47.3 | 21.7 | 38.7 | 60.3 | 35.9% | ||
LOS ANGELES Chargers | 48.1 | 25.8 | 30.9 | 56.9 | 45.5% | 48.8 | 22.6 | 39.3 | 61.9 | 36.5% | ||
LOS ANGELES Rams | 52.8 | 27.3 | 39.3 | 66.8 | 41.1% | 49.2 | 23.8 | 39.7 | 63.5 | 37.5% | ||
MIAMI Dolphins | 52.3 | 29.8 | 34.3 | 64.0 | 46.5% | 46.1 | 19.8 | 40.8 | 60.6 | 32.6% | ||
MINNESOTA Vikings | 51.6 | 24.7 | 39.8 | 65.3 | 38.2% | 51.6 | 29.1 | 31.7 | 60.8 | 47.9% | ||
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 42.5 | 21.0 | 36.3 | 57.8 | 36.7% | 53.4 | 26.5 | 42.8 | 69.3 | 38.2% | ||
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 48.6 | 21.3 | 41.8 | 62.4 | 33.8% | 50.5 | 23.1 | 38.0 | 61.1 | 37.8% | ||
NEW YORK Giants | 52.0 | 28.1 | 34.4 | 62.2 | 44.9% | 48.1 | 21.5 | 41.2 | 62.7 | 34.3% | ||
NEW YORK Jets | 50.3 | 24.6 | 39.5 | 64.4 | 38.4% | 46.0 | 21.7 | 36.4 | 58.1 | 37.3% | ||
OAKLAND Raiders | 48.3 | 24.8 | 35.8 | 60.5 | 40.9% | 50.5 | 26.9 | 32.9 | 59.8 | 45.0% | ||
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 46.8 | 22.3 | 38.0 | 61.4 | 36.9% | 52.3 | 27.0 | 39.2 | 66.2 | 40.8% | ||
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 51.4 | 26.7 | 37.9 | 65.9 | 41.3% | 45.5 | 23.8 | 34.2 | 57.9 | 41.0% | ||
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 46.3 | 24.9 | 33.2 | 57.4 | 42.9% | 54.7 | 32.0 | 31.9 | 63.9 | 50.1% | ||
SEATTLE Seahawks | 48.4 | 21.3 | 41.5 | 62.0 | 33.9% | 54.7 | 30.3 | 34.8 | 65.1 | 46.5% | ||
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 50.5 | 21.4 | 44.6 | 64.5 | 32.4% | 51.9 | 25.2 | 42.3 | 67.4 | 37.3% | ||
TENNESSEE Titans | 52.1 | 24.9 | 41.2 | 65.0 | 37.7% | 48.3 | 25.6 | 32.1 | 57.7 | 44.4% | ||
WASHINGTON Redskins | 56.2 | 30.5 | 35.8 | 65.8 | 46.0% | 56.2 | 21.3 | 32.4 | 53.7 | 39.6% | ||
Strong Matchup | ||||||||||||
Neutral | ||||||||||||
Weak Matchup |
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
New England and Kansas City defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 1st (1.284)
One of the handful of popcorn games on Sunday could also be the site of a points explosion from an IDP perspective. Gillette Stadium boasts the best TVO rank in the league and, in a game featuring two of the AFC’s best quarterbacks, things could get very interesting indeed. It should be noted that both defenses have stepped up their respective games considerably in recent weeks, with the Chiefs showing a backbone that they lacked at times earlier this year. The Patriots have slipped a little bit, but you can be assured Bill Belichick will have a game plan cooked up after consulting his old friend Sun Tzu in ‘The Art of War’.
Of the two sides, the numbers say the Chiefs defenders are the better play. The Chiefs offense has averaged just 47.3 tackle opportunities allowed per game (though this has been skewed by Matt Moore’s starts to an extent), while the Patriots offense has allowed 53.4 and 69.3 offensive snaps per game. The likely outcome is for a back and forth affair that will keep both offenses balanced, hence plenty of ground and pound and ample tackle opportunities. This is a phenomenal spot to exploit, so plug in some Patriots and Chiefs defenders if you are struggling for viable options.
Key stat: The Patriots offense allows an above-average 53.4 tackle opportunities per game.
Los Angeles Rams and Seattle defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 7th (1.219)
The Seahawks have managed to battle their way to a playoff bye through 13 weeks, but there are still holes to exploit – especially in their defense. The unit ranks third in the league in pass completions allowed (25.3 per game), prolonging opponent drives and leading to scores. As for the Rams, their offense has been a disappointment with only 49.2 tackle opportunities allowed per game, but the tide turned for them last week. Can they maintain the momentum and get their offense on track against a porous Seattle defense?
With Vegas making Seattle a short road favorite, the implication is that this will be a typically close NFC West battle, likely going down to the end. That game script will suit production from both teams’ tacklers, who stand to benefit from a fearless Russell Wilson and Jared Goff’s downfield accuracy and rhythm. With the lights on for Sunday Night Football, expect both teams to bring maximum effort and to take full advantage of this TVO factor from a fantasy perspective.
Key stat: Seattle’s offense allows an average of 55.3 tackle opportunities per game on the road.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
Cleveland and Cincinnati defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 28th (1.088)
It is tough to get a bead on Cleveland, such is the topsy-turvy nature of their offense – and team. On paper, the Browns should be able to have their way with a poor Cincinnati team – Vegas makes the home team 8.5-point favorites – but the trust factor is lacking. The match-up isn’t great for either team, in truth; the Bengals have allowed just 46.8 tackle opportunities allowed per game and have rushed the ball an average of 21.2 times per game, the latter not conducive to solid tackle production.
Negative game scripts as a result of Ryan Finley starting multiple games were a major contributory factor in these uninspiring totals, but it is not a trend to predict a reversal for, especially considering the high stakes of this week for fantasy purposes. In what will likely be a sloppy game with inconsistent offense, fade this one if you have better options.
Key stat: Cleveland’s offense allows just 48.3 tackle opportunities per game, below the league average of 50.4.
Pittsburgh defenders at Arizona
Stadium TVO rank: 26th (1.106)
Has Kyler Murray finally hit the rookie wall, or was last week’s embarrassing home loss just a little blip in the road? If the Rams can successfully shut down the Arizona offense, Pittsburgh might shut it off completely. The trick for Kliff Kingsbury and his coaching staff will be to stem the flow of the Steelers pass rush and establish a rhythm, something many offenses have failed to do against them this season.
Arizona has one of the worst TVO factors in the league and is normally on the avoid list, so the Pittsburgh defenders should only be considered in big-play scoring formats this week – and not as viable options for tackle production. The Cardinals have a low rush percentage of just 36.8% (league average 40.2%) and struggle to sustain offense as a result. If Duck Hodges can keep this game on schedule, the Steelers defense should not have too much work to do.
Key stat: As the road team, the Steelers have averaged just 49.6 tackle opportunities per game, lower than their home total of 52.7.
________
Best of luck with Week 14 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.