IDP Matchups to Exploit and Avoid: Week 14

Dave Larkin breaks down the key clashes to target and fade for IDP production

Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.

You are very welcome to the 14th edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.

For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.

Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.

Playoff intensity is in the air. There is nothing quite like earning the bragging rights by beating a friend or colleague in the fantasy playoffs, seeing the fruits of your season-long labors as you lift the trophy. That comes in time; for now, the focus must remain on the week ahead. If you are playing in a standard league, your playoffs are either here or they are coming up. Either way, the decisions you make over the next few weeks will define your season. Let’s use the match-ups to their fullest to make it a memorable finish.

Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s matchups.

Team Defense Team Offense
LEAGUE AVG Pressure Applied QB QB Drop Backs Pressure Allowed QB Sacks QB Hits Drop
AVERAGE Sacks Hits Faced Allowed Allowed Backs
2016 NFL Average 14.2% 2.18 5.37 37.8 14.2% 2.18 5.37 37.8
2017 NFL Average 15.1% 2.33 5.49 36.5 15.0% 2.33 5.49 36.5
2018 NFL Average 15.0% 2.50 5.56 37.0 15.0% 2.50 5.56 37.0
2019 NFL Average 15.1% 2.61 5.66 37.4 15.1% 2.61 5.66 37.4
Team Defense Team Offense
Pressure Applied QB QB Drop Backs Pressure Allowed QB Sacks QB Hits Drop
Sacks Hits Faced Allowed Allowed Backs
ARIZONA Cardinals 14.2% 2.5 5.8 41.1 11.0% 3.5 4.3 39.3
ATLANTA Falcons 12.1% 1.5 4.3 35.3 18.0% 3.3 8.3 46.3
BALTIMORE Ravens 18.6% 2.3 6.8 36.8 11.8% 2.0 3.6 30.3
BUFFALO Bills 15.7% 3.1 6.0 38.2 15.6% 2.3 5.3 34.3
CAROLINA Panthers 17.0% 3.8 6.7 39.3 15.6% 3.7 6.5 41.7
CHICAGO Bears 13.8% 2.3 5.3 38.6 13.3% 2.8 5.1 38.2
CINCINNATI Bengals 13.7% 1.7 4.4 32.3 13.5% 3.4 5.7 41.9
CLEVELAND Browns 15.8% 2.9 5.6 35.4 11.9% 2.7 4.4 37.0
DALLAS Cowboys 16.7% 2.3 6.1 36.4 14.1% 1.7 5.5 39.0
DENVER Broncos 13.1% 2.3 4.5 34.3 14.1% 3.0 4.8 34.3
DETROIT Lions 11.2% 2.0 4.4 39.5 14.4% 2.6 5.6 38.8
GREEN BAY Packers 16.7% 2.3 6.0 36.0 14.8% 2.3 5.5 37.1
HOUSTON Texans 14.4% 2.2 5.8 39.9 16.9% 3.0 6.0 35.4
INDIANAPOLIS Colts 14.8% 2.7 5.3 35.9 17.1% 2.0 5.9 34.6
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars 17.8% 3.2 6.3 35.2 13.3% 2.7 5.3 40.3
KANSAS CITY Chiefs 14.2% 2.8 5.4 38.3 12.5% 1.7 4.8 38.7
LOS ANGELES Chargers 14.0% 2.1 4.3 30.9 15.5% 2.2 6.1 39.3
LOS ANGELES Rams 14.4% 3.2 5.7 39.3 12.6% 1.6 5.0 39.7
MIAMI Dolphins 12.2% 1.3 4.2 34.3 22.0% 4.1 9.0 40.8
MINNESOTA Vikings 15.9% 2.8 6.3 39.8 13.9% 1.8 4.4 31.7
NEW ENGLAND Patriots 18.6% 3.3 6.8 36.3 13.6% 1.8 5.8 42.8
NEW ORLEANS Saints 16.4% 3.7 6.8 41.8 10.3% 1.4 3.9 38.0
NEW YORK Giants 14.8% 2.2 5.1 34.4 19.0% 2.9 7.8 41.2
NEW YORK Jets 15.4% 2.3 6.1 39.5 20.6% 3.8 7.5 36.4
OAKLAND Raiders 11.2% 2.3 4.0 35.8 8.9% 1.5 2.9 32.9
PHILADELPHIA Eagles 18.6% 2.8 7.1 38.0 15.7% 2.5 6.2 39.2
PITTSBURGH Steelers 19.6% 3.6 7.4 37.9 12.7% 1.6 4.3 34.2
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 17.3% 3.8 5.8 33.2 15.7% 2.0 5.0 31.9
SEATTLE Seahawks 11.0% 1.9 4.6 41.5 18.4% 2.9 6.4 34.8
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers 15.1% 2.8 6.8 44.6 17.0% 3.3 7.2 42.3
TENNESSEE Titans 14.6% 2.8 6.0 41.2 20.8% 4.1 6.7 32.1
WASHINGTON Redskins 15.8% 3.0 5.7 35.8 19.0% 3.3 6.2 32.4
Strong Matchup
Neutral
Weak Matchup

Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit

Tampa Bay pass rushers vs. Indianapolis

Don’t look now, but the Bucs are poised to string together a strong winning streak to finish the season. Their defense, littered with talent – and especially talented pass rushers – has played a large role in their late-season resurgence. Notching six and five sacks, respectively, over their last two games, the pieces are falling into place for Bruce Arians and his staff. If Jameis Winston can remain mistake-free, or at least make fewer mistakes, the Bucs have the chance to build a strong lead against a feeble Indianapolis offense. The game script is pivotal for this pass rush, a unit that has only recorded a sack percentage of 6.2% this season, to truly go off.

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