IDP Matchups to Exploit and Avoid: Week 13

Dave Larkin breaks down the key clashes to target and fade for IDP production

Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.

You are very welcome to the 13th edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.

For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.

Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.

With the bye week gauntlet behind us, we can turn our attention to the pressing matter at hand: making the playoffs and winning a championship. If you find yourself in a position to do just that, now is the time to knuckle down, study the match-ups and have conviction with your decisions which, with any luck, will propel you to glory.

Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s match-ups.

Team
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
2016 NFL Average
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
2017 NFL Average
15.1%
2.33
5.49
36.5
15%
2.33
5.49
36.5
2018 NFL Average
15%
2.5
5.56
37
15%
2.5
5.56
37
2019 NFL Average
15.1%
2.59
5.64
37.4
15.1%
2.59
5.64
37.4
Team
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
Arizona
15%
2.6
6.1
40.6
10.7%
3.3
4.2
39.2
Atlanta
12.8%
1.6
4.5
35.6
17.5%
2.8
7.9
45.1
Baltimore
18.6%
2.3
7.1
38.1
12.1%
2.1
3.7
30.8
Buffalo
16%
3
5.9
36.8
15.2%
2.2
5.3
34.7
Carolina
16.3%
3.7
6.5
40.1
15%
3.4
6.1
40.6
Chicago
14.4%
2.4
5.5
38.5
13.8%
2.9
5.3
38.1
Cincinnati
13.1%
1.5
4
30.5
14.2%
3.6
6
42.3
Cleveland
15.6%
3.1
5.7
36.6
11.4%
2.5
4.2
36.8
Dallas
16.4%
2.2
6.1
37.1
14.2%
1.5
5.4
37.7
Denver
12.7%
2.3
4.4
34.5
15.1%
3.3
5.3
34.8
Detroit
11.5%
2.1
4.5
39.5
15.1%
2.6
5.8
38.6
Green Bay
16.5%
2.5
5.9
35.9
15.5%
2.5
5.8
37.5
Houston
13.3%
2.1
5.2
39
17.2%
3
6.2
36
Indianapolis
13.6%
2.4
5
36.6
16.4%
1.9
5.5
33.8
Jacksonville
17.7%
3.1
6.2
35
12.4%
2.5
4.9
39.7
Kansas City
14.8%
2.9
5.7
38.8
12.9%
1.7
5.1
39.5
LA Chargers
15.2%
2.3
4.7
31.2
15.2%
2.1
6.1
40
LA Rams
14.4%
2.9
5.6
39.2
13.3%
1.6
5.2
39.1
Miami
12.4%
1.3
4.1
33
21.7%
4.2
8.8
40.6
Minnesota
16.2%
2.8
6.5
40.5
13.5%
2
4.2
31.1
New England
19%
3.4
7
36.9
12.5%
1.7
5.3
42.2
New Orleans
15.6%
3.2
6.3
40.2
10.8%
1.5
4.2
38.6
NY Giants
15.5%
2.4
5.4
34.5
19%
3.2
7.9
41.5
NY Jets
16.3%
2.4
6.5
39.6
21%
3.8
7.4
35
Oakland
11.5%
2.4
4.2
36.4
9.1%
1.5
3
33
Philadelphia
17.9%
2.8
6.7
37.5
16.4%
2.5
6.3
38.4
Pittsburgh
19.7%
3.5
7.5
37.8
12.4%
1.6
4.4
35.3
San Francisco
17.9%
4
6.1
34
15.6%
2
5.1
32.7
Seattle
10.4%
2.1
4.4
41.8
19%
3
6.6
35
Tampa Bay
14.5%
2.5
6.5
44.5
16.8%
3.3
7.2
42.7
Tennessee
13.7%
2.7
5.6
41
19.9%
3.9
6.5
32.5
Washington
15.1%
2.6
5.2
34.3
18.4%
3.2
6
32.6

Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit

New England pass rushers vs. Houston offensive line

No matter how you slice it, the Patriots are undeniably one of the best defenses we have seen this decade, and maybe ever. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, the unit ranks behind only the 2002 Bucs and the 1991 Eagles for the best defensive performance through 11 games (1985-present). Their coverage units get plenty of positive press – and rightly so – but their pass rush is formidable as well, averaging pressure on 19.0% of dropbacks. For context, the league average sits at 15.2%. The coverage and pressure units work in tandem, as they do with all good defenses, to produce a unit that averages 3.4 sacks and 7.0 quarterback hits per game.

Discipline will be important for this unit in a Sunday Night Football tilt against the Texans, a team capable of causing problems in the back end with their array of weapons. The problem for Houston, of course, is how much pressure their offensive line has given up: 17.2% on average through the first 11 games. At times, the talents of Deshaun Watson are rendered moot by elite pass rushes capable of disrupting the timing. The Patriots will have a solid game plan to contain Watson and create havoc, so they profile as one of the best options for pass-rushing upside this week.

Already have a Footballguys account? Sign in here:

Want to see the rest?

Become a Season Long Pro to view the full version of this page.

Satisfaction Guaranteed

"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."

Matthew Berry, ESPN

With our 30-day
Money Back Guarantee
you have nothing to lose