IDP Matchups to Exploit and Avoid: Week 12

Dave Larkin breaks down the key clashes to target and fade for IDP production

Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.

You are very welcome to the 12th edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.

For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.

Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.

Depending on the league you are in, you could be close to glory or contemplating your offseason tee times. In fantasy football, competition is king. It is important, no matter where you rank in the standings, to remain humble, strive for your best possible line-up and aim for a championship (or play spoiler, if that’s your thing). Another season will have passed us by before we know it, so let’s finish strong.

Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s matchups.

Season
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
2016 NFL Average
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
2017 NFL Average
15.1%
2.33
5.49
36.5
15%
2.33
5.49
36.5
2018 NFL Average
15%
2.5
5.56
37
15%
2.5
5.56
37
2019 NFL Average
14.9%
2.59
5.59
37.5
14.9%
2.59
5.59
37.5
Team
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
Arizona
15%
2.6
6.1
40.6
10.7%
3.3
4.2
39.2
Atlanta
13.5%
1.8
4.9
36.4
17%
2.5
7.4
43.5
Baltimore
18.7%
2.3
7.1
38
10.5%
2
3.3
31.3
Buffalo
15.7%
2.9
5.9
37.6
15.4%
2.3
5.5
35.6
Carolina
17%
3.9
6.8
40
15%
3.3
6.1
40.7
Chicago
13.7%
2.5
5.3
38.6
14.1%
3
5.3
37.6
Cincinnati
12.5%
1.3
3.8
30.5
13.3%
3.6
5.8
43.5
Cleveland
15.8%
3
5.7
36
11.6%
2.6
4.3
37
Dallas
16.5%
2.2
6.1
36.9
14.1%
1.6
5.4
38.2
Denver
12.7%
2.4
4.5
35.3
14.7%
3.2
5.2
35.4
Detroit
11.2%
2
4.5
40.2
13%
2.3
5
38.6
Green Bay
15.9%
2.5
5.9
37.2
14.6%
2.3
5.4
37
Houston
13.2%
2.2
5.3
40.3
17.5%
3.2
6.4
36.5
Indianapolis
13.7%
2.5
5.1
37.2
16.5%
2
5.7
34.6
Jacksonville
18.3%
3.3
6.7
36.6
11.4%
2.4
4.4
38.6
Kansas City
14.8%
2.9
5.7
38.8
12.9%
1.7
5.1
39.5
LA Chargers
15.2%
2.3
4.7
31.2
15.2%
2.1
6.1
40
LA Rams
13.3%
2.9
5.4
40.5
12.8%
1.6
5
39.1
Miami
12.8%
1.3
4.2
32.8
22.5%
4.2
9.1
40.4
Minnesota
16.2%
2.8
6.5
40.5
13.5%
2
4.2
31.1
New England
19.3%
3.7
7.2
37.3
12.2%
1.7
5.2
42.5
New Orleans
15.7%
3.1
6.3
40.2
10.9%
1.5
4.2
38.4
NY Giants
16%
2.4
5.4
33.7
18.8%
3.4
7.9
42
NY Jets
16.2%
2.5
6.5
40.1
22.5%
4.1
8
35.5
Oakland
12.2%
2.5
4.5
37
8.2%
1.5
2.7
32.8
Philadelphia
16.8%
2.5
6.4
38.2
16%
2.5
6
37.4
Pittsburgh
19.2%
3.4
7.4
38.6
11.7%
1.5
4.2
35.8
San Francisco
17.2%
3.9
5.7
33.2
14.8%
1.9
5
33.7
Seattle
9.5%
2
3.9
41.2
17.8%
2.7
6.3
35.4
Tampa Bay
13.6%
2.2
5.8
42.8
17.6%
3.6
7.8
44.2
Tennessee
13%
2.7
5.2
40
20.7%
4.2
7
33.8
Washington
12.7%
2.3
4.3
33.8
18.7%
3.2
6.1
32.6

Strong Matchup
Weak Matchup

Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit

Philadelphia pass rushers vs. Seattle offensive line

It has been some time since a defense knocked the usually untouchable Tom Brady around like a rag doll, but that is exactly what the Eagles did last week. There came a point in the game where it appeared Brady, battered and bruised, was glad to throw the ball away and let his defense do the dirty work. Philadelphia’s pass rush stands out as a solid unit from a metrics standpoint – 6.4 quarterback hits per game, a pressure applied rate of 16.8% and 2.5 sacks per game. The match-up this week against a porous Seattle offensive line might just be the perfect platform the Eagles pass rush to augment those statistics a little bit.

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