IDP Matchups to Exploit and Avoid: Week 10

Dave Larkin breaks down the key clashes to target and fade for IDP production

Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.

You are very welcome to the 10th edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.

For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.

Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.

It is time to switch your brain to playoff mode. Every line-up decision, every waiver wire acquisition and release, should be couched in the basic notion that the playoffs are coming; now all we must do is make sure we secure our seat at the table. Even if your team is on the outside looking in, do not fret; there are weeks left to claw back the deficit.

If you are in the box seat, reveling in the destruction all around you, don’t get complacent. Things can change quickly, after all. Humility and an honest assessment of our rosters will be crucial to get to the dance and win the top prize.

Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s matchups.

Season
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
2016 NFL Average
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
2017 NFL Average
15.1%
2.33
5.49
36.5
15%
2.33
5.49
36.5
2018 NFL Average
15%
2.5
5.56
37
15%
2.5
5.56
37
2019 NFL Average
14.4%
2.53
5.34
37.1
14.4%
2.53
5.34
37.1
Team
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
Arizona
14.4%
2.6
5.6
38.7
10.7%
3.3
4.1
38.6
Atlanta
10.9%
0.9
3.5
32.1
16.5%
2.6
7.5
45.5
Baltimore
17.7%
1.8
6.9
38.9
10.3%
2.3
3.4
32.8
Buffalo
14.4%
2.5
5.1
35.5
17.4%
2.8
6.1
35.1
Carolina
16.2%
4.3
6.8
41.8
13.7%
3.3
5.3
38.4
Chicago
13.7%
2.9
5.5
40
13.8%
2.8
5.1
37.3
Cincinnati
10.8%
1.1
3.4
31.3
12.5%
3.6
5.8
45.9
Cleveland
15.6%
3.1
5.3
33.8
12.1%
2.9
4.5
37.1
Dallas
15.6%
2.3
6
38.4
13.6%
1.8
4.9
35.9
Denver
12.8%
2.1
4.4
34.8
14.7%
3.3
5.1
34.7
Detroit
9.8%
1.8
4
40.9
11.7%
2.3
4.5
38.6
Green Bay
15.3%
2.4
5.6
36.2
14.5%
2.2
5.4
37.6
Houston
13.6%
2.3
5.7
41.7
16.5%
2.8
6
36.4
Indianapolis
13.6%
2.5
4.9
35.9
15.8%
2
5.5
34.9
Jacksonville
17.7%
3.3
6.7
37.7
11.6%
2.4
4.3
37.4
Kansas City
13.7%
2.9
5.3
38.9
13.5%
1.8
5.2
38.7
LA Chargers
15.2%
2.3
4.7
30.7
14.3%
1.8
5.6
38.9
LA Rams
13.1%
2.9
5.1
39.3
12.2%
1.5
5
40.9
Miami
13.3%
1.5
4.3
31.9
22.2%
4
8.8
39.5
Minnesota
16.1%
3.1
6.3
39.4
12.6%
1.8
3.8
29.9
New England
18.3%
3.6
6.7
36.4
12.2%
1.8
5.1
41.8
New Orleans
14.7%
3.5
5.8
39.1
9.5%
1
3.5
37
NY Giants
15.1%
2.4
5.1
33.9
18.4%
3.1
7.7
41.6
NY Jets
14.3%
1.6
5.6
39.3
23.4%
4.6
8.5
36.3
Oakland
9.7%
1.9
3.6
37.3
5.7%
1.1
1.9
32.8
Philadelphia
17.4%
2.7
6.4
37
14.6%
2.2
5.3
36.6
Pittsburgh
20.2%
3.6
7.8
38.4
8.6%
1
2.9
33.6
San Francisco
18%
3.8
5.8
32
13.8%
1.5
4.1
29.9
Seattle
8%
1.7
3.2
40.1
17.8%
2.4
6.2
35
Tampa Bay
14.5%
2.4
6.3
43.1
16.6%
3.8
7
42.1
Tennessee
13.8%
2.8
5.3
38.6
19.7%
4.2
6.9
35
Washington
12.8%
2.3
4.3
33.9
17.9%
2.9
5.7
31.7

Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit

Baltimore pass rushers at Cincinnati

The Bengals have seen enough of long-time starting quarterback Andy Dalton, so fresh-faced head coach Zac Taylor has pulled the trigger on rookie Ryan Finley. At 0-8, who can honestly hold it against them? Somewhat counterintuitively, the Bengals line has allowed pressure on just 12.5% of dropbacks despite dropping back 45.9 times per game. That is significantly above the league average dropbacks number of 37.1. Taylor will deploy a game plan to limit Finley’s involvement, but how realistic is that against such a formidable defense?

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