IDP Matchups to Exploit and Avoid: Week 8

Dave Larkin identifies the best and worst match-ups to target and fade for IDP purposes.

Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.

You are very welcome to the eighth edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.

For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.

Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.

It is hard to believe it is already Week 8. Suddenly the focus must change to the playoffs for fantasy football – and more importantly, building a team that can get you there. So whether you’re struggling or riding high, keeping a close eye on the match-ups can help you get there in a challenging IDP landscape.

Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s match-ups.

Season
Average
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
2016
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
2017
15.1%
2.33
5.49
36.5
15%
2.33
5.49
36.5
2018
15%
2.5
5.56
37
15%
2.5
5.56
37
2019
14.1%
2.42
5.24
37.2
14.1%
2.42
5.24
37.2
Team
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
Arizona
15.7%
3.1
6
38.1
11%
3.3
4.4
40.3
Atlanta
10.6%
0.7
3.6
33.6
17.1%
2.7
7.6
44.3
Baltimore
17.1%
1.7
6.4
37.6
10.1%
2.4
3.4
34
Buffalo
13.9%
2.2
5.3
38.5
17.2%
2.7
6.3
36.8
Carolina
16.9%
4.5
7.5
44.3
11.8%
2.7
4.5
38
Chicago
13%
3
5.3
41.2
13.2%
2.5
5.2
39.2
Cincinnati
11%
1.3
3.4
31.3
12.6%
3.4
5.6
44.3
Cleveland
16.3%
3.2
5.7
34.7
11.5%
2.7
4.2
36.2
Dallas
14.2%
1.9
5.3
37.3
13.5%
2
4.9
36
Denver
12.1%
1.9
4.1
34.3
14.6%
3.4
5.3
36.3
Detroit
10%
1.7
4.2
41.8
12.2%
2
4.7
38.3
Green Bay
14.3%
2.6
5.3
36.9
11.5%
1.7
4.3
37.4
Houston
15.3%
2.4
6.4
42
16.7%
3
6.1
36.7
Indianapolis
14.8%
2.7
5.3
36
13.1%
1.2
4.7
35.7
Jacksonville
14.7%
3
5.7
38.9
11.6%
2.3
4.1
35.7
Kansas City
11.7%
2.9
4.6
39
11.5%
1.3
4.4
38.6
LA Chargers
15.6%
2
4.4
28.4
13.1%
1.9
5.4
41.4
LA Rams
13.2%
2.6
4.9
36.7
12.5%
1.7
5.3
42.3
Miami
10.3%
1.2
3
29.2
23.1%
4
9.2
39.7
Minnesota
14.5%
2.7
6
41.4
12.9%
1.7
3.7
28.7
New England
18.7%
3.7
7.1
38.3
11.4%
1.6
4.7
41.3
New Orleans
15.6%
3.4
6.1
39.3
9.9%
1.1
3.6
36.1
NY Giants
15.4%
2.6
5.1
33.4
18.7%
2.9
7.6
40.6
NY Jets
14.7%
1.2
5.8
39.7
21.9%
4.3
7.7
35
Oakland
10.3%
1.7
3.7
35.5
6%
1.3
2
33.3
Philadelphia
15.9%
2.4
6.1
38.7
14.3%
1.9
5.3
37
Pittsburgh
18.5%
3.3
7.2
38.8
6.7%
0.8
2.2
32.5
San Francisco
18.4%
3.3
5.7
30.8
13.6%
1.3
4
29.3
Seattle
7.3%
1.6
2.7
37.3
17%
2.4
6
35.3
Tampa Bay
13.3%
2.2
5.8
43.8
19.2%
4.2
7.8
40.8
Tennessee
13.5%
2.7
5.1
38
22.5%
4.4
7.6
33.7
Washington
13%
2.3
4.7
36.3
17.5%
2.6
5.9
33.4

Strong Matchup
Weak Matchup

Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit

Pittsburgh pass rushers vs. Miami offensive line

Pittsburgh’s defense has averaged pressure on 18.5% of dropbacks this year, recording 3.3 sacks and 7.2 quarterback hits per game. All these numbers bode well for a team that may have to rely on that side of the ball if they are to have any chance of an improbable playoff berth in January. The AFC remains wide open, so anything is possible.

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