IDP Matchups to Exploit and Avoid: Week 7

Dave Larkin breaks down the key clashes to target and fade for IDP production.

Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.

You are very welcome to the seventh edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.

For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.

Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.

We are now at about the halfway point of the fantasy season, but whether you are riding high or in the depths of despair it is important to remain humble. Stick to the weekly process and the rewards will come in time. That goes especially for selecting match-ups. Prognosticating the production of defensive players can be tricky in a league bent on subpackages and game-specific assignments, but stay the course.

Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s matchups.

Season
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
2016
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
2017
15.1%
2.33
5.49
36.5
15%
2.33
5.49
36.5
2018
15%
2.5
5.56
37
15%
2.5
5.56
37
2019
14.3%
2.46
5.35
37.5
14.3%
2.46
5.35
37.5
Team
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
Arizona
13.4%
2.3
5
37.3
11.6%
3.5
5
43.2
Atlanta
11.2%
0.8
3.7
32.8
16.2%
2.3
7.3
45.3
Baltimore
16.7%
1.8
6.2
36.8
10.6%
2.7
3.8
36.2
Buffalo
13.3%
2.4
5.2
39
17.6%
2.8
6.8
38.6
Carolina
16.9%
4.5
7.5
44.3
11.8%
2.7
4.5
38
Chicago
13.5%
3.4
5.6
41.6
14.5%
2.6
5.2
35.8
Cincinnati
11.9%
1.2
3.7
30.8
12.8%
3.7
5.7
44.2
Cleveland
16.3%
3.2
5.7
34.7
11.5%
2.7
4.2
36.2
Dallas
13.8%
1.7
5.3
38.7
14%
1.8
5.2
37
Denver
12.4%
2
4.3
34.8
13.3%
2.5
4.7
35.2
Detroit
10.1%
2
4.4
43.4
13.1%
2
4.8
36.6
Green Bay
16.3%
3
6.2
37.8
11.7%
1.8
4.5
38.3
Houston
14.6%
2.7
6.2
42.2
16.8%
3
6.2
36.7
Indianapolis
14.5%
2.6
5.2
35.8
11.6%
1.2
4
34.6
Jacksonville
15.4%
3.2
5.8
37.8
12.5%
2.3
4.5
36
Kansas City
10%
1.8
3.8
38.3
11.7%
1.3
4.7
39.8
LA Chargers
15.6%
2
4.3
27.8
13.1%
2
5.5
41.8
LA Rams
11.4%
2.2
4.2
36.5
13.2%
2
5.7
43
Miami
9.5%
1
2.8
29.4
24.3%
4.6
9.8
40.4
Minnesota
15.6%
2.8
6.3
40.5
13.8%
2
3.8
27.8
New England
20.4%
4.2
8
39.2
12.3%
1.8
5
40.7
New Orleans
17.4%
3.7
6.3
36.5
9.8%
1.2
3.5
35.7
NY Giants
16.6%
2.7
5.8
35.2
17%
2
6.8
40.2
NY Jets
16.6%
1.4
6.4
38.6
24.9%
5
8.8
35.4
Oakland
10.5%
1.8
3.8
36.2
7.1%
1.6
2.4
33.8
Philadelphia
16.6%
2.3
6.7
40.2
13.9%
1.7
5.3
38.3
Pittsburgh
18.5%
3.3
7.2
38.8
6.7%
0.8
2.2
32.5
San Francisco
18.2%
3.4
6.2
34
13.1%
1.2
4
30.6
Seattle
7.5%
1.7
3
40
16.6%
2.7
5.7
34.2
Tampa Bay
13.3%
2.2
5.8
43.8
19.2%
4.2
7.8
40.8
Tennessee
13.7%
3
5.2
37.8
23.5%
4.8
8
34
Washington
12.6%
2.3
4.8
38.5
17.4%
2.5
6.3
36.5

Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit

San Francisco pass rushers at Washington

The 49ers pass rush is just getting warmed up. A dominant performance against the Rams that saw the usually proficient Jared Goff finish with fewer than 100 yards passing should have gotten the attention of the league. If not, the 49ers – who apply pressure on 18.2% of dropbacks – will make their point loudly and clearly this week in the nation’s capital.

The Washington offense has been a facsimile of an NFL attack for the past few weeks, putting on a show with smoke and mirrors without establishing any consistency. The Trent Williams-sized hole on the left side of their offensive line remains a major pain point. The Redskins have surrendered 6.3 quarterback hits per game, while the 49ers have hit the passer 6.2 times per game. It all adds up to a perfect formula for Kyle Shanahan’s team to thrive.

Key stat: The Redskins line has allowed pressure on 17.4% of dropbacks, with the league average at 14.3%.

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