IDP Matchups to Exploit and Avoid: Week 6

Dave Larkin identifies the best and worst match-ups to target and fade for IDP purposes.

Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.

You are very welcome to the sixth edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.

For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.

Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.

With five weeks of action in the books, we are starting to figure out the juicy match-ups – and the ones that will yield no joy whatsoever. Teams like the Browns, Titans, and Falcons are proving to be exploitable offenses, while defensive masterclasses from the likes of San Francisco, Carolina and Green Bay have made us stand up and take notice.

As the weeks pass by, the process becomes clearer and the line-up building follows suit. With that in mind, let’s get right into this week’s slate of games.

Season
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
2016
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
14.2%
2.18
5.37
37.8
2017
15.1%
2.33
5.49
36.5
15%
2.33
5.49
36.5
2018
15%
2.5
5.56
37
15%
2.5
5.56
37
2019
14.7%
2.54
5.53
37.6
14.7%
2.54
5.53
37.6
Team
Team Defense
Team Offense
Pressure
Applied
QB Sacks
QB Hits
Drop Backs
Faced
Pressure
Allowed
QB Sacks
Allowed
QB Hits
Allowed
Drop
Backs
Arizona
12.4%
2.4
4.6
37.2
13.5%
4.2
6
44.4
Atlanta
13.7%
1
4.4
32
15.8%
2.4
7.4
46.8
Baltimore
17.8%
1.8
6.4
36
12%
3
4.4
36.6
Buffalo
13.3%
2.4
5.2
39
17.6%
2.8
6.8
38.6
Carolina
17.1%
4
7
41
11.9%
2.8
4.6
38.8
Chicago
13.5%
3.4
5.6
41.6
14.5%
2.6
5.2
35.8
Cincinnati
13.9%
1.2
4.2
30.2
12.9%
4
5.8
44.8
Cleveland
16.3%
3.2
5.6
34.4
13.9%
3.2
5
36
Dallas
15.2%
1.6
6
39.6
12.7%
2
4.6
36.2
Denver
9.5%
1
3.2
33.6
14.3%
2.8
5.2
36.4
Detroit
10.7%
2.3
4.8
44.3
13.5%
1.8
5
37
Green Bay
17.2%
3
6.6
38.4
12.6%
2
4.8
38
Houston
16.1%
3
7
43.4
19.7%
3.6
7
35.6
Indianapolis
14.5%
2.6
5.2
35.8
11.6%
1.2
4
34.6
Jacksonville
16.5%
3.2
6.2
37.6
13%
2.4
4.8
37
Kansas City
11.2%
2.2
4.2
37.6
12.8%
1.4
5.2
40.6
LA Chargers
17.7%
2.4
5.2
29.4
13.1%
2.2
5.4
41.2
LA Rams
10.9%
2.2
4
36.8
12.6%
1.6
5.8
46
Miami
9%
1.3
2.8
30.5
27.3%
4.5
10.5
38.5
Minnesota
16.5%
3
6.6
40
13.9%
2.2
3.8
27.4
New England
19.7%
4.8
8
40.6
12%
1.6
4.8
40
New Orleans
18.6%
4
7
37.6
9.7%
0.8
3.4
35
NY Giants
17.4%
2.6
5.8
33.4
15.8%
2.2
6.6
41.8
NY Jets
15.8%
1.5
6
38
29.4%
5.8
10.5
35.8
Oakland
10.5%
1.8
3.8
36.2
7.1%
1.6
2.4
33.8
Philadelphia
17.1%
2.6
7.2
42.2
14.4%
1.6
5.4
37.4
Pittsburgh
19.7%
3.8
7.4
37.6
7.4%
1
2.6
35
San Francisco
18.3%
3.3
6.5
35.5
12.7%
1
3.8
29.5
Seattle
8.9%
2
3.6
40.6
16.6%
2.6
5.6
33.8
Tampa Bay
13.5%
2.2
6.2
45.8
20.1%
3.6
7.4
36.8
Tennessee
14.6%
3.4
5.8
39.6
23.3%
4.4
7.6
32.6
Washington
12%
1.8
4.4
36.6
18%
3
7
38.8

Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit

Washington pass rushers at Miami

Could this be the perfect game to shake off the cobwebs for one of these teams? There may be no better opportunity in their schedule, but will the Redskins, without a head coach, rise up, or will Miami show some spirit after a bye week? Washington’s pass rush hasn’t been a good unit this year, averaging pressure on just 12% of opponent dropbacks. However, Miami’s offensive line has been so poor that even a subpar unit can exploit it.

Barring a coaching miracle over the bye week, the Dolphins line is unlikely to have transformed. This is a unit that has given up pressure on 27.3% of dropbacks and surrendered 4.5 sacks per game. A lot of this misfortune up front stems from an ability to establish a lead, forcing more pass attempts. The Vegas line on this game makes it a 3.5-point affair in the visitors’ favor, so it could be a close one. The Redskins defense has some talented players. Bank on them to make their presence felt.

Key stat: Miami’s offensive line has yielded 10.5 quarterback hits per game. The league average is 5.53.

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