Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the second edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
It is tempting to think that one week of data is enough to make sweeping assumptions about these teams, their fortunes and how much we can exploit their fantasy assets. The wiser approach, however, is to approach things with an open mind; the script will shift, make no mistake. The season is all about capitalizing on the windows of opportunity, whether that be individual players’ situations changing or simply identifying the trends.
Let’s dive into this week’s matchups cognizant of the fact that things change quickly around the NFL, but that doesn’t mean our window isn’t open.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s matchups.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Baltimore pass rushers vs. Arizona offensive line
The Ravens made short work of Miami in Week 1, prompting some to question the substance of their victory. To do so flippantly, however, would be folly; it is tough to manhandle an NFL opponent, much less score 50+ points. The underrated aspect of the win may have been the play of their defense, which hassled and harried Dolphins quarterbacks. The sample size isn’t big enough to make any firm judgments, but the matchup this week plays right into their hands.
The Cardinals offensive line is in for a long season if the home clash with Detroit is anything to go by. The Lions don’t exactly boast the most dangerous pass-rushing unit, and yet still they were able to shut down the Arizona offense, force Kyler Murray off his spot (and into mistakes) and derail any game plan that Kliff Kingsbury had in mind. A repeat performance may not be forthcoming for the Ravens, but their pass rushers – including the linebackers – should get special consideration this week in a plum matchup.
Key stat: The Cardinals offensive line ranks 30th according to our resident offensive line guru Matt Bitonti. To make matters worse, offensive tackle Marcus Gilbert has been placed on injured reserve. A weakness has just become a complete and total liability.
Detroit pass rushers vs. Los Angeles offensive line
It might be getting early late for Matt Patricia and the Lions. A tie in Arizona has really put the brakes on what could have been a promising start. One would assume Jim Bob Cooter will not have the same leeway when it comes to timeouts this week, and likely going forward. The pass-rushing display was a bright spot in the stalemate in the desert, with Devon Kennard shining.
The Chargers have an offensive line problem and a significant one at that. Philip Rivers is a master of the quick release and short pass, but Detroit has a penchant for slowing down such offenses (recall what they did to Tom Brady and Patriots last year, for example). If the Lions can force Rivers to hold the ball, tackle combination Trent Scott and Sam Tevi are vulnerable and could be beaten like a drum. New arrival Trey Flowers should be able to get into a groove this week.
Key stat: The Chargers offensive line – with Russell Okung – gave up pressure on 16.7% of dropbacks last season.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Los Angeles Rams pass rushers vs. New Orleans offensive line
The strategy of fading your pass rushers against the Saints was a reliable one in 2018. Although we have only seen the Saints on Monday night against Houston, it stands to reason, based on that display, that things will continue in the same vein. The cohesion of the offensive line, combined with Drew Brees’ quick release, makes it incredibly hard for even the most capable edge threats of getting home.
Aaron Donald was kept remarkably quiet against the Panthers last week. Carolina’s line would be a top 10 unit on a good day, but it lacks the consistency of the Saints’ line. All of it points to tough sledding for the Rams – even at home. The Rams applied pressure on 16.9% of dropbacks last season; they will need that and then some to get to Brees. Fade your Rams if you have better options.
Key stat: In 2018, the Saints offensive line surrendered pressure on just 9.3% of dropbacks, one of the lowest marks in the league. Not much has changed in 2019 in terms of personnel.
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Jacksonville defenders at Houston
The Texans will hope to put a Monday night of disappointment behind them when they return home to face a familiar foe in Jacksonville. The quarterback facing them will be rookie Gardner Minshew, however, and not Nick Foles as expected. The lack of tape on the rookie should help Jacksonville construct a cogent game plan, but it may not be enough.
If we assume rookie mistakes at quarterback are inevitable, Minshew is certain to fall victim to them. A road game in a hostile stadium seems like a logical spot for that particular issue to rear its ugly head. What it means is that the Jacksonville defense will have ample tackle opportunity in a favorable stadium in terms of awarding solos and assists. Bump up the value of Calais Campbell, Myles Jack, and crew and plug in Jaguars if you have them. This could be a bounty of points.
Key stat: In 2018, the Texans home stadium had the fourth-best TVO factor at 1.211, making it rich soil for solos and assists.
Oakland defenders vs. Kansas City
The Raiders have life after a Monday night massacre of the Broncos, for whom the scoreline was flattering. Jon Gruden may have caught lightning in a bottle, or perhaps it all comes down to the opponent. Even a high-intensity performance may not be enough to outfox the crafty Chiefs, whose offense presents many, many more problems than Joe Flacco and his mates.
The Chiefs offense lost a key piece in Tyreek Hill last week, but there is more than enough talent to offset his absence. The interesting subplot here will be the high ankle sprain of Patrick Mahomes II and how much Andy Reid will limit his passing attempts. It is only Week 2, so the smart move would be to rely more on the ground game. The game script should favor Kansas City, so the best play here is to plug in your Raiders, who should see plenty of quality tackle opportunities.
Key stat: The Chiefs offense averaged 23.4 rushing attempts per game in 2018, a little below the league average. The Oakland defense, meanwhile, faced 28.6 attempts per game.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Dallas defenders at Washington
The Redskins deserve credit for having a pulse last week. The Vernon Davis touchdown, I have to be honest, was exhilarating as the first moments of football trickled into my brain like satiating my thirst after a drought. Still, it would be wise to remain focused on the big picture; they were putrid in the second half and offered little once the Eagles got out of their stupor.
The Cowboys looked nothing short of phenomenal in Week 1, but again we have to be careful not to jump to conclusions too quickly on America’s Team. Still, the signs are promising for a strong season in Big D. With Dwayne Haskins Watch in full swing, Washington’s offense losing Derrius Guice and an inexperienced skill position group, things aren’t looking too rosy for a consistent offense. The best play here is to fade your Cowboys and seek better options.
Key stat: The Cowboys allowed 52.3 tackle opportunities last season, with the league average at 50.1.
New England defenders at Miami
The Patriots go from strength to strength, with an opening schedule that should pose them few problems. After sweeping aside the Steelers like a pesky bug, the Dolphins shouldn’t exactly have the champions quaking in fear. The uncertainty at the quarterback position for the Dolphins means the offense is simply not reliable enough to expect IDP production.
Negative game scripts will force Miami to get away from the ground game, although that may be the best way to beat a Patriots defense that has made blanketing receivers downfield into a fine art. Fade the Patriots defenders except in leagues where big-play scoring is in vogue.
Key stat: The Patriots offense allowed 53.6 tackle opportunities per game last season and had 28.7 rushing attempts, both well above league average.
Best of luck with Week 2 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
