The Gut Check No.471: 20 Spring Risers And Fallers

Matt Waldman shares his thoughts on the biggest risers on fallers of the spring according to their movement in average draft position (ADP).

Average Draft Position (ADP) is an essential guide for fantasy football drafts. As is the case with most guides in our lives, the immature perspective is to follow them as a strict set of rules. If you're new to fantasy football or you're having difficulty judging player value, sticking close to ADP is the safest way to avoid a lot of wild picks that can throw off the course of a draft and make your team harder to manage during the regular season.

When a competitor comments about you reaching for a player significantly higher than his ADP, he or she are often illustrating their insecurity with your choice. In some cases, they wanted your player later in the draft and they're angry that you didn't follow the crowd as they counted on when developing their draft plan. Or, they have large egos, and when they spot an opportunity to tell the world that they're smart in a manner that's sanctioned by an authoritative body, they'll take on the role of verbally "whacking the mole," who can make them look good.

Forget these people. ADP exists to help you use it as a tool, not a draft dictator.

One of the ways to maximize the value of ADP data is to monitor its significant changes. This week, we're examining 20 of ADP's largest PPR risers and fallers of the spring, using Footballguys ADP Sorter. Each player on this list climbed or fell 15 percent during the spring.

List Overview

There is value to examining the biggest movers on a macro level because the insights offer intel about fantasy players heading into the season:

  • Players on Arizona (3), Kansas City (3), Chicago (2) and the L.A. Rams (2) account for 10 of the 20 biggest ADP movers.
  • 11 of the 20 biggest movers are rookies.
  • The trio of veterans on this list with at least three years of experience each has a new head coach and scheme heading into 2019.
  • Nine are expected to contribute at a significant level heading into June minicamps.
  • 13 players are running backs, 6 are wide receivers, and 1 is a quarterback.

Now that we have some macro intel, let's examine them individually.

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